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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011


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While patterns are impossible to predict, my guess would be that this year's pattern might not explicitly be as favorable towards a Northeast strike as previous years. If anything, the Western Caribbean, South Florida and areas like Mexico and Texas might be more favorable for a strike given the analogs.

In fact, the five analogs selected are 1956, 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008.

Four of those seasons had Category 4 or 5 hurricanes aiming at the U.S. and Caribbean at one point or another.

- 1961: Cat 5 Carla aims at Texas, strikes with Cat 4 strength, Cat 5 Hattie aims at Belize, strikes with Cat 4 strength

- 1989: Cat 4 Hugo hits Carolinas, Jerry strikes Texas

- 1999: Cat 4 Bret aims at Texas, strikes Cat 3 strength, Cat 4 Floyd hits Carolinas as Cat 2, Cat 4 Lenny hits Caribbean

- 2008: Dolly hits Texas, Cat 4 Gustav and Cat 4 Ike aim at U.S. strike Gulf Coast as strong hurricanes, Cat 4 Omar and Cat 4 Paloma strike the Caribbean

Based on analogs like that, I'd venture to guess that we have some serious threats (Cat 4 or 5s forecast to hit U.S., whether they strike at that intensity would be unknown) and serious landfalls of major hurricanes in the Caribbean later in the season. Don't be surprised to see another Bret or Emily stirring up the Western Gulf, another Irene to slosh Florida, and right around the time we prep for Thanksgiving, little Rina could be causing problems in the Caribbean.

- Reference this on November 30th to see how wrong this all likely will be :D

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that's going to go over like a lead balloon

The timing always sucks. The la nina was just coming on last summer and now it's gong to be leaving this time. Though, I wonder if we really want a moderate la nina during hurricane season. I'm probably going to piss alot of people off but it's good to see at least one land falling hurricane, last year was putrid in that regard.

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Cool. Should I call up Klotzbach, TSR and NOAA and tell them to not worry about their predictions?

YO, EVERYONE, BETHESDA GOT THIS

I should probably make my sarcasm more obvious :P

I can't have a non-scientific "hunch" without being ripped and declared a weenie, wonderful.

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Neutral by the beginning of season. I wouldn’t start the season cancel ‘chatter’ just yet. An early ending meaning October? Perhaps. I suspect there will be enough activity across the NALT to keep us busy. FYI: CSU should have an update this week.

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It's not that unusual to have a cat 4 or 5 at sea "threatening" the US

True.

Hurricanes that were forecast to be Category 4 or 5 U.S. Landfalls in last 12 years:

- Bret

- Floyd

- Lili

- Isabel (briefly forecast to be 115 kts at landfall)

- Frances

- Ivan

- Dennis

- Katrina

- Rita

- Gustav

- Ike (briefly forecast to hit Florida at 120 kts)

That's 11 hurricanes in 12 years that were at one point or another forecast to hit the U.S. at Cat 4 or 5 strength.

Of those, none did. The only one, Charley in 2004, wasn't even forecast to become a Cat 4.

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In fact, the five analogs selected are 1956, 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008.

I must have missed the previous post when someone detailed what in the pattern / indicators in those years is analogous to the pattern / indicators that are present this year.

Would you point me towards that previous post; or describe again the analogous conditions in those years to the current pattern.

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The last major to landfall in the HGX CWA was fairly early (August) and during a warm ENSO. In Bethesda mode, however, I feel an average season for the warm AMO with Florida fun, and no science to back that up.

Weak warm ENSOs rocked the world for eyewall U-Tubes in 2004.

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The last major to landfall in the HGX CWA was fairly early (August) and during a warm ENSO. In Bethesda mode, however, I feel an average season for the warm AMO with Florida fun, and no science to back that up.

Weak warm ENSOs rocked the world for eyewall U-Tubes in 2004.

you dont need to try so hard

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:huh:

I dont understand, I dont post much but I do enjoy tracking storms from all basins. Pls elaborate.

Oh, don't play all innocent. You know exactly what we're talking about, Mister.

Two seasons ago, you transformed into the biggest anti-weenie on the planet and your tropical posts have been consistent buzzkillers since. It got to the point last year where every utterance from you was a splash of cold water. Don't even get me started on this. :D

What does that graphic mean?

It suggests a trend toward El Nino, which generally hurts NATL tropical activity.

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What does that graphic mean?

There's a definite trend toward Pacific warming by August. The mean looks to be in the warm neutral side (0-0.5C). Generally, ENSO climate models like to return toward a neutral state over time, so the fact that we are seeing so much warming might be indicative of a signal. The good news for Atlantic tropical lovers is that moderate/strong La Ninas tend to be multi-year events and there has never been a first year moderate/strong La Nina go to an El Nino by the next winter.

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So you are guaranteeing back to back hyperactive seasons?

More a someplace in the US has to get hit kind of IMBYism, if I had to guess, Stephanie Abrams in her old Florida stomping grounds with a satellite truck wearing LL Bean rain gear, everybody wants that.

Jim Cantore in Rockaway Beach, a boy can dream.

:hurrbear:

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im not worried. this season has to be better than last season.

The only part of last season that stunk was the beginning, i.e. June/July/August. I know the season doesn't REALLY begin until the second half of August, but we could've used a few more real big storms in June and July. Just my humble opinion. Hopefully we'll get a nice, active June and July.

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The only part of last season that stunk was the beginning, i.e. June/July/August. I know the season doesn't REALLY begin until the second half of August, but we could've used a few more real big storms in June and July. Just my humble opinion. Hopefully we'll get a nice, active June and July.

I seem to recall a system named Alex. Perhaps you forgot that one.

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