Atlantic Tropical Action 2011

[bronxx]

Accuweather 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast out wednesday.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/863018679001/sneak-preview-2011-atlantic-h.asp

That quick statement in the video "There should be more impact on the US this year than last," is a heck of a teaser forecast; considering there was NO real impact last year.

Even though JB is gone, still I will forecast that Accuweather (misnomer) will again say that the odds of a NE corridor landfall of a major hurricane is greater than usual. They almost always do this: with the main causal factor being that their most major advertisers and customer base are located in that area.

Forecasting landfall areas of probability is just plain silly; there is no proven skill by anyone to do this with any degree of accuracy. Sure, you can get lucky once in a while; then blow your horn until the next year arrives. Onward, Accuweather, through the fog.

[Ed Lizard]

That quick statement in the video "There should be more impact on the US this year than last," is a heck of a teaser forecast; considering there was NO real impact last year.

Even though JB is gone, still I will forecast that Accuweather (misnomer) will again say that the odds of a NE corridor landfall of a major hurricane is greater than usual. They almost always do this: with the main causal factor being that their most major advertisers and customer base are located in that area.

Forecasting landfall areas of probability is just plain silly; there is no proven skill by anyone to do this with any degree of accuracy. Sure, you can get lucky once in a while; then blow your horn until the next year arrives. Onward, Accuweather, through the fog.

I suspect there are Klotzbach/Gray type factors that could be measured several months in advance, that would probably include storm total forecasts, that could be correlated to landfall patterns from months in advance and could be tested in hindcast situations.

Of course, by definition if one identifies a series of factors, develops an equation that weights them, based on past history, you'd expect hindcasting to be better than climatology. Hindcasting off some kind of dynamic model of any type (meteorology or reservoir engineering or whatever) with skill would seem a bigger win that hindcasting off a statistical model. Forecasting, not hindcasting, would be the test.

[rainstorm]

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?paged=2

jb mentions 1996, 1999, and 2005 in reference to this cane season

[Srain]

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?paged=2

jb mentions 1996, 1999, and 2005 in reference to this cane season

Yet you failed to mention 2008 as well.

[MJO812]

Fwiw, Accuweather is calling for an active hurricane season.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/47289/2011-atlantic-hurricane-season.asp

[k***]

i cant wait for venezuela to get raked in the early season

[Ellinwood]

I like JBs discussion on this season's forecast... it falls in line with my thoughts about this season and it is something that definitely needs a lot of attention considering how uneventful last year was for most despite how active it was.

[Ed Lizard]

i cant wait for venezuela to get raked in the early season

They need an more expensive version of Paint or PhotoChop.

If I were starting a new pay service and wanted customers, I'd list 2005 as an analog year as well. 1938 and 2005.

[Derecho!]

That quick statement in the video "There should be more impact on the US this year than last," is a heck of a teaser forecast; considering there was NO real impact last year.

Even though JB is gone, still I will forecast that Accuweather (misnomer) will again say that the odds of a NE corridor landfall of a major hurricane is greater than usual. They almost always do this: with the main causal factor being that their most major advertisers and customer base are located in that area.

Forecasting landfall areas of probability is just plain silly; there is no proven skill by anyone to do this with any degree of accuracy. Sure, you can get lucky once in a while; then blow your horn until the next year arrives. Onward, Accuweather, through the fog.

They've always gotten a remarkable amount of press for their continual EPIC FAIL seasonal landfall forecasts - check Google news and see how many wire stories about it are picked up.

In fact, they're SO well publicized that I think that NHC ends up getting blamed for failed AccuWeather seasonal tropical forecasts; people see the article, forget the source, and then when the US isn't hit, they conflate the forecast with "they" (who is NHC, generally.)

Given their luck I wouldn't be surprised to see NYC get hit three times this year, since they FINALLY left the area off their strike map.

[Scorpion]

This is Florida's year.. I feel it in my bones

[HurricaneJosh]

i cant wait for venezuela to get raked in the early season

It's a silly map, as essentially all it does is highlight the areas that are most prone to cyclones any year: TX/LA, S FL, and E NC. It's just generic climatology-- there are no insights here.

[k***]

This is Florida's year.. I feel it in my bones

[Ed Lizard]

I'm not quite the Pacific aficionado (sp?) you are, hence the differing views of 1997, but 2004 has to be my favorite hurricane season.

Florida is made for eyewall U-Tubes.

[Scott747]

Almost done with my much anticipated 2011 forecast.

Will be passing it along to my lone client in the next few weeks.

[k***]

Almost done with my much anticipated 2011 forecast.

Will be passing it along to my lone client in the next few weeks.

i just cant get excited for forecasts..everyone will come in at 14-6-3 give or take a couple anyways

[rainstorm]

Almost done with my much anticipated 2011 forecast.

Will be passing it along to my lone client in the next few weeks.

thanks. i look forward to getting it. could you lower your fee a bit?

[k***]

thanks. i look forward to getting it. could you lower your fee a bit?

has methane mike come out with a forecast yet?

[Ed Lizard]

i just cant get excited for forecasts..everyone will come in at 14-6-3 give or take a couple anyways

In another 15 years I'll be cool with a low totals Nino year like 1983.

In 15 years, the warm AMO will probably be over, and you Pacific hounds will be loving it.

[rainstorm]

has methane mike come out with a forecast yet?

still waiting

[mempho]

It's a silly map, as essentially all it does is highlight the areas that are most prone to cyclones any year: TX/LA, S FL, and E NC. It's just generic climatology-- there are no insights here.

Looks to me like High pressure is likely to dominate a large region centered with it being centered roughly in the Arklatex. That should put S. Florida, S. Texas, the Carolinas, and the east coast as the high-risk zones. This could change if we reshuffle the deck, but it looks like the north-central GOMEX will be low risk this year (it's only March, though).

[Ed Lizard]

Looks to me like High pressure is likely to dominate a large region centered with it being centered roughly in the Arklatex. That should put S. Florida, S. Texas, the Carolinas, and the east coast as the high-risk zones. This could change if we reshuffle the deck, but it looks like the north-central GOMEX will be low risk this year (it's only March, though).

I don't have any real solid idea, a general notion that ENSO and AMO affect numbers, and busy seasons usually have the most hits, but cold ENSOs can mean a busy season with little US affects, like last year.

If it doesn't start raining soon down here, I'd guess the subtropical ridge will be centered over the ArklaTex, with a mean trough closer to the East Coast, so a lot of near misses, and a few that get through. I'd think if we do get a mean feedback ridge centered in the ArkLaTex, even South Texas may be too far North.

But I wouldn't bet money or anything on this.

[k***]

^

string of caribbean cruisers FTW.

[Srain]

As long as there is no mention of a monsoonal grye, I’ll be happy.

[bronxx]

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?paged=2

Humorous presentation. Reminded me of a Glen Beck University "lesson," with his use of cherry-picked semi-relevant data.

Loved the Caddyshack reference though; with the analogy picture of Punxsutawney Phil's cousin and Bill Murray. As another actor in the movie often noted:

"I get no respect. No respect!" Punxsutawney JB rides again.

[Floydbuster]

If I had to say, I'd stick with what Dr. Klotzbach is also calling for with 17/9/5. Very active, but not quite the 19/12/5 we had in 2010.

[OKpowdah]

As long as there is no mention of a monsoonal grye, I’ll be happy.

The stuff that Alex was born from? I think that was pretty legit though

[BethesdaWX]

I don't know why, I just have a strong sensation that we see a Major Hit somehwre N of hatteras this yr, whether it be NYC/SNE, Or Hatteras/SE VA Into DC or Jersey.

[am19psu]

I don't know why, I just have a strong sensation that we see a Major Hit somehwre N of hatteras this yr, whether it be NYC/SNE, Or Hatteras/SE VA Into DC or Jersey.

Of course you do.

[BethesdaWX]

Of course you do.

I can be pretty freakin psychic sometimes, but I wouldn't take it that far.

I'm also quite humble.

[Ed Lizard]

I can be pretty freakin psychic sometimes, but I wouldn't take it that far.

I'm also quite humble.

He could have been hinting of some weenie tendencies, actually. But for the sake of the entire board, I want a major just West Chesapeake Bay inland to just West of the mouth of the Potomac.

But that is me.