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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011


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Happy New Year!

Since we're now officially in 2011, I thought it would be nice to have a new thread to fantasize/speculate/chat Re: what should be an interesting season.

For starters... While the whole "overdue" argument is complete nonsense, it is noteworthy that the USA has now gone five solid years without a 100-kt cyclone. For us to go a sixth year without one would be essentially unheard of.

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Happy New Year!

Since we're now officially in 2011, I thought it would be nice to have a new thread to fantasize/speculate/chat Re: what should be an interesting season.

For starters... While the whole "overdue" argument is complete nonsense, it is noteworthy that the USA has now gone five solid years without a 100-kt cyclone. For us to go a sixth year without one would be essentially unheard of.

I hope it's the trend for a while. Land-falling trop systems are a b**ch to work and create way too much devastation around here.

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I hope it's the trend for a while. Land-falling trop systems are a b**ch to work and create way too much devastation around here.

And since you have zero interest in tropical weather, that makes it even less appealing to you.

P.S. You're not punched in now, so I'm not sure why you're even commenting on this topic. I know you like to separate work from leisure.

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Happy New Year Josh! Look forward to some exciting storms this year and now that I'm in Charleston SC instead of RI. I have at least a snowballs chance in hell in getting a landfall where I live.:popcorn:

Yeah, I think the Carolinas will do well this year.

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Happy New Year Josh! Look forward to some exciting storms this year and now that I'm in Charleston SC instead of RI. I have at least a snowballs chance in hell in getting a landfall where I live.:popcorn:

Oh, wow! What an exciting move for you if you're wanting some tropical action. :thumbsup:

I :wub: Charleston-- what a nice city. How lucky of you to live there.

P.S. Happy New Year to you, too!

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And since you have zero interest in tropical weather, that makes it even less appealing to you.

P.S. You're not punched in now, so I'm not sure why you're even commenting on this topic. I know you like to separate work from leisure.

Oh I like tropical systems and I find them very interesting. I just don't chase them around on the net and play-by-play them.

I'm just stating why I hope the trend of non-landfalling continues and is indeed welcomed by me and others in these parts.

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My thinking is that with a La Nina still in place we should see an above normal period. However how long can luck in any one place last? Odds favor more direct impacts on the US coast. You could hardly ask for any less impacts in a hyper season such as 2010.

Here in Louisiana, we had major impacts in 2005, 2008; With 2011 being another 3 years later, will this be our year again? Will Josh be making plans to visit Louisiana again?

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Oh I like tropical systems and I find them very interesting. I just don't chase them around on the net and play-by-play them.

I'm just stating why I hope the trend of non-landfalling continues and is indeed welcomed by me and others in these parts.

And I'm just stating that I hope you have the pleasure of experiencing a direct hit by a 150-kt cyclone this year. :hug:

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I've only been at it for 3 years, but this year has the highest probability for a Carolina landfall since I started making the probabilistic forecasts. S FL is also elevated, but that's closer to climo.

seems like all areas of the coast would be elevated, because doesn't the GOM tend to do okay in these 2nd year ninas too?

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And I'm just stating that I hope you have the pleasure of experiencing a direct hit by a 150-kt cyclone this year. :hug:

No thanks. Too many people in my CWFA would be adversely affected or killed. Mudslides and massive flooding across the mtns and pretty much un-warnable tornadoes are depressing events to work and clean up after.

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seems like all areas of the coast would be elevated, because doesn't the GOM tend to do okay in these 2nd year ninas too?

Yeah, overall, this is the most bullish forecast I've issued. We actually like the Panhandle more than LA, but we'll see. I'm not good at this yet anyway, so getting into the particulars with me is probably meaningless.

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Yeah, overall, this is the most bullish forecast I've issued. We actually like the Panhandle more than LA, but we'll see. I'm not good at this yet anyway, so getting into the particulars with me is probably meaningless.

the panhandle has to be better chasing for josh...too many coastal marshes in LA

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the panhandle has to be better chasing for josh...too many coastal marshes in LA

Bingo. I haven't chased on the Panhandle, but my impression is that it's pretty good turf-- as good as TX or the E coast of FL.

LA is a total nightmare from a chase perspective-- pretty much the entire state. And the Big Bend of FL is icky as well.

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Bingo. I haven't chased on the Panhandle, but my impression is that it's pretty good turf-- as good as TX or the E coast of FL.

LA is a total nightmare from a chase perspective-- pretty much the entire state. And the Big Bend of FL is icky as well.

Nothing good ever goes into the big bend anyways...

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