HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year! Since we're now officially in 2011, I thought it would be nice to have a new thread to fantasize/speculate/chat Re: what should be an interesting season. For starters... While the whole "overdue" argument is complete nonsense, it is noteworthy that the USA has now gone five solid years without a 100-kt cyclone. For us to go a sixth year without one would be essentially unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Can someone tell me what the average is for seasons that make it to Jan 1st with only 0 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Can someone tell me what the average is for seasons that make it to Jan 1st with only 0 storms? Hush, you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year! Since we're now officially in 2011, I thought it would be nice to have a new thread to fantasize/speculate/chat Re: what should be an interesting season. For starters... While the whole "overdue" argument is complete nonsense, it is noteworthy that the USA has now gone five solid years without a 100-kt cyclone. For us to go a sixth year without one would be essentially unheard of. I hope it's the trend for a while. Land-falling trop systems are a b**ch to work and create way too much devastation around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 I hope it's the trend for a while. Land-falling trop systems are a b**ch to work and create way too much devastation around here. And since you have zero interest in tropical weather, that makes it even less appealing to you. P.S. You're not punched in now, so I'm not sure why you're even commenting on this topic. I know you like to separate work from leisure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year Josh! Look forward to some exciting storms this year and now that I'm in Charleston SC instead of RI. I have at least a snowballs chance in hell in getting a landfall where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year Josh! Look forward to some exciting storms this year and now that I'm in Charleston SC instead of RI. I have at least a snowballs chance in hell in getting a landfall where I live. Yeah, I think the Carolinas will do well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year Josh! Look forward to some exciting storms this year and now that I'm in Charleston SC instead of RI. I have at least a snowballs chance in hell in getting a landfall where I live. Oh, wow! What an exciting move for you if you're wanting some tropical action. I Charleston-- what a nice city. How lucky of you to live there. P.S. Happy New Year to you, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 And since you have zero interest in tropical weather, that makes it even less appealing to you. P.S. You're not punched in now, so I'm not sure why you're even commenting on this topic. I know you like to separate work from leisure. Oh I like tropical systems and I find them very interesting. I just don't chase them around on the net and play-by-play them. I'm just stating why I hope the trend of non-landfalling continues and is indeed welcomed by me and others in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kennethb Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 My thinking is that with a La Nina still in place we should see an above normal period. However how long can luck in any one place last? Odds favor more direct impacts on the US coast. You could hardly ask for any less impacts in a hyper season such as 2010. Here in Louisiana, we had major impacts in 2005, 2008; With 2011 being another 3 years later, will this be our year again? Will Josh be making plans to visit Louisiana again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, I think the Carolinas will do well this year. I've only been at it for 3 years, but this year has the highest probability for a Carolina landfall since I started making the probabilistic forecasts. S FL is also elevated, but that's closer to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Oh I like tropical systems and I find them very interesting. I just don't chase them around on the net and play-by-play them. I'm just stating why I hope the trend of non-landfalling continues and is indeed welcomed by me and others in these parts. And I'm just stating that I hope you have the pleasure of experiencing a direct hit by a 150-kt cyclone this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I've only been at it for 3 years, but this year has the highest probability for a Carolina landfall since I started making the probabilistic forecasts. S FL is also elevated, but that's closer to climo. seems like all areas of the coast would be elevated, because doesn't the GOM tend to do okay in these 2nd year ninas too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 seems like all areas of the coast would be elevated, because doesn't the GOM tend to do okay in these 2nd year ninas too? Strat is saying a big LA hit this year. W LA. A Gustav that doesn't p*ssy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 N Central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas early in the season with an increased threat to the Western Gulf later would be my WAG. Should be an interesting and active season regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 And I'm just stating that I hope you have the pleasure of experiencing a direct hit by a 150-kt cyclone this year. No thanks. Too many people in my CWFA would be adversely affected or killed. Mudslides and massive flooding across the mtns and pretty much un-warnable tornadoes are depressing events to work and clean up after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 No thanks. Too many people in my CWFA would be adversely affected or killed. Mudslides and massive flooding across the mtns and pretty much un-warnable tornadoes are depressing events to work and clean up after. Actually, make it 170 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Actually, make it 170 kt. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 seems like all areas of the coast would be elevated, because doesn't the GOM tend to do okay in these 2nd year ninas too? Yeah, overall, this is the most bullish forecast I've issued. We actually like the Panhandle more than LA, but we'll see. I'm not good at this yet anyway, so getting into the particulars with me is probably meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Wow. But with a tiny RMW so only you get to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, overall, this is the most bullish forecast I've issued. We actually like the Panhandle more than LA, but we'll see. I'm not good at this yet anyway, so getting into the particulars with me is probably meaningless. So SC/NC, SE FL, and NW FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 But with a tiny RMW so only you get to enjoy it. So you want me to get hurt or die from a tropical system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, overall, this is the most bullish forecast I've issued. We actually like the Panhandle more than LA, but we'll see. I'm not good at this yet anyway, so getting into the particulars with me is probably meaningless. the panhandle has to be better chasing for josh...too many coastal marshes in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 So you want me to get hurt or die from a tropical system? I don't like the way this discussion is already becoming personalized. Let's bring it back to the upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I don't like the way this discussion is already becoming personalized. Let's bring it back to the upcoming season. You started it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 the panhandle has to be better chasing for josh...too many coastal marshes in LA Bingo. I haven't chased on the Panhandle, but my impression is that it's pretty good turf-- as good as TX or the E coast of FL. LA is a total nightmare from a chase perspective-- pretty much the entire state. And the Big Bend of FL is icky as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 You started it. Back to the upcoming season, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Back to the upcoming season, please. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Bingo. I haven't chased on the Panhandle, but my impression is that it's pretty good turf-- as good as TX or the E coast of FL. LA is a total nightmare from a chase perspective-- pretty much the entire state. And the Big Bend of FL is icky as well. Nothing good ever goes into the big bend anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nothing good ever goes into the big bend anyways... There are a few counties in the Big Bend that have never come within 30 mi of a H3 or higher in HURDAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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