January Analogs

[Mallow]

(copied from my blog post)

I've created an analog list based on a subjective look at the overall December pattern and came up with the following years:

1950**, 1952, 1955, 1961, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1981*, 2009

1950 is by far the best match, and 1981 is also a better match than the others on the list. The rest are only mediocre matches, but I have included them to smooth out wild solutions some.

Here was the December pattern we saw in 2010:

Here is the composite of my analog years:

Not perfect, but not a bad match, either. Here was that pattern rolled forward into January:

This is an interesting result. If we had a pattern like that in January, the Pacific Northwest would be very close to major cold and snow. However, there could be a sharp north-south temperature gradient in British Columbia or northern Washington State, with cool, moist Pacific flow south of that. Lots of borderline rain/snow showers in Portland would be my best guess based on that pattern on its own.

However, I'd like to note two major caveats. First, the pattern would obviously not look exactly the same all January, and if we average a pattern like the one in the above image, there would almost certainly be times where the cold/snow made it down to all of western Washington and Oregon. Second, you might notice a subtle difference between the composite pattern and the actual December pattern. It seems like many of the anomalies in the Western Hemisphere are slightly displaced towards the west in the composite compared to the actual. If that remains the case in January, then the actual pattern we'd see would be a slight shift east of what's shown above, which would be much colder for the Pacific Northwest.

On a final note, many of the models and ensembles are now hinting at a pattern not unlike that being shown in my January composite, so I have more confidence that this could show some semblance of reality.

[donsutherland1]

Very nice discussion, Mallow. Hopefully, your discussion will give some encouragement to those in the Pacific Northwest who are concerned that winter has bypassed the region. I do believe some good winter weather lies ahead for there in January (especially the second half of the month), even as the northern Mid-Atlantic/Great Lakes Region (including southern Ontario), and southern New England region wind up on the cold side of normal.

[Roger Smith]

Looks like 1890-91 may be an analogue too, record cold in the UK in Dec 1890, and my Toronto data showing -5 F anomaly, with mild rainy weather at New Years 1891. Rest of that winter (Toronto) stayed cold to mid-January then became somewhat milder than normal with more rain than snow in February. March then turned quite cold again. I found some data for Calgary, where the winter changed from very mild to very cold around Jan 30th. Meanwhile, the severe cold in the U.K. remained somewhat in place through January before relenting in February. No upper air obviously but the sequence looks more prograde than retrograde suggesting similar pattern to this winter also, flabby west coast ridge evident in December, east of Rockies in January, over east coast in February.

This would be a good solar analogue also coming after a weak cycle (peak 1883) had ended, and before much activity with the next cycle had started (moderate peak 1893)..

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Very interesting write up. I watched Joe Bastardi's videos today and he seemed to be hinting that it may turn cold again in the plains and Canadian prairies come the second week of January although -frustratingly for me - he actually circled the northern New England/eastern Ontario region as remaining above normal! I could see January 1965 as being a good analog, as that winter saw a very similar December temperature wise in these parts, with the cold arriving in mid January.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

What about JAN 96?? NO??

[thegreatdr]

Interesting that 1981 is an analog. For the tropical cyclones out in the open Atlantic this season, their tracks generally resembled the 1981 season. That season also had no hurricane landfalls in the United States. The times I've looked, 1950 has been popping up on occasion as well, so it's interesting to see it continuing to match as well. One thing to keep in mind...one of the stronger warm ENSO events (El Nino) started in 1982. Not that any analog is perfect. =)

DR

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Interesting that 1981 is an analog. For the tropical cyclones out in the open Atlantic this season, their tracks generally resembled the 1981 season. That season also had no hurricane landfalls in the United States. The times I've looked, 1950 has been popping up on occasion as well, so it's interesting to see it continuing to match as well. One thing to keep in mind...one of the stronger warm ENSO events (El Nino) started in 1982. Not that any analog is perfect. =)

DR

Very interesting indeed when you consider how cold January 1982 turned out