12z ECMWF shows wintry potential

[Quincy]

214hr: ~990mb low along the SC coast, 850s AOB 0C across northern GA, far NW SC and interior NC.

Discussion?

[Ginx snewx]

Op Run >120?????? how did that work out last week, that will change 6 times in the next 6 runs, all that tells us is the pattern could sh it out a storm somewhere in the East.

[Quincy]

214hr: ~990mb low along the SC coast, 850s AOB 0C across northern GA, far NW SC and interior NC.

Discussion?

[WhiteoutWX]

No high in SE Canada. This is the first thing I look for with a potential threat. IF its not there it usually trends warmer/further north. Although that has definately not been the trend so far this year. Long ways off this will change many times Im sure.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Meh... until the Dgex comes on board, im not biting

[SteveB]

Setup looks marginal at best. Nary a HP in Eastern Canada. Certainly looks cold later in the period though.

[Dr No]

I think this run is crap. Looks like it's struggling with handling this California cutoff. It gets wonky with phasing out by day 8. The solutions will vary wildly for a couple days until it's past the SW Bias period.

That might end up ejecting in two pieces, a smaller event mid-week and larger one at the end. I don't buy any solution showing a hint of warm with the blocking that strong.

[SnowGoose69]

Its still trying to boot that block out of Greenland later on in the period, its been trying that forever, so I'd anticipate the setup is likely to be better than is currently being advertised by the Euro.

[tombo82685]

just to add in also from hrs 228-240 the northern stream system by duluth drops mod to hvy precip from nyc to dc

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Op Run >120?????? how did that work out last week, that will change 6 times in the next 6 runs, all that tells us is the pattern could sh it out a storm somewhere in the East.

I think consistency is the key. People really have been down on the models lately...but the EC & GFS actually did an excellent job keying in on the Dec 26-27 threat a good 180+ hours out. They both showed several runs in a row at that time frame of a decent threat on the east coast. So don't s*** on it just cause its so far out...although feel free to do so because its only one run. We see a couple more runs still showing a storm, then maybe its worth noting.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS ensembles seem to suggest OTS...

But there is a healthy amount of spread. So would the op Euro, in my extremely amateur opinion. However, the Euro surface map suggests a fish of a different color, a possible severe outbreak Georgia and Florida.

The trough coming moving in from the Great Lakes goes way negative tilt/cut off at Hour 240, but it looks like its too late.

[mdsnowlover]

Its still trying to boot that block out of Greenland later on in the period, its been trying that forever, so I'd anticipate the setup is likely to be better than is currently being advertised by the Euro.

is that depiction of low exiting off the coast likely ???

[Wonderdog]

There is nothing likely this far out. Analyzing models beyond 7 or 8 days is nothing more than folly, unless each model run shows basically the same thing.

is that depiction of low exiting off the coast likely ???

[SLAM22]

214hr: ~990mb low along the SC coast, 850s AOB 0C across northern GA, far NW SC and interior NC.

Discussion?

its kind of been there, yesterday at HR240 it showed a low in the western gulf, I dont know this far out if I would restrict the impact to just the south/southern mid-atlantic....at this pt tho it does slide it out to sea, but 200+ hrs out, its a moot pt.

[Ji]

i dont see how analyzing the euro 9-10 day is any different from analyzing the GFS at 384

[Edge Weather]

Some of the analysis in this thread is rather silly and annoying. If you don't want to analyze a model out to 10 days, then don't, but please don't crap up the thread with your stupid comments about how it does not make sense to do so, because it makes a lot of sense to analyze the models out this far. There is clearly the potential for a storm in this time frame, and possibly a significant one along the eastern seaboard. Of course details will be uncertain, but that is what is supposed to be the fun of this hobby, trying to figure out the details. If some of you are looking to read a model verbatim at this time frame, you will always be disappointed. No model will ever get the details right past 7 days, ever. But what the Euro is showing is the potential. You must read through the details to find the likely outcome. To me, the likely outcome based upon what the Euro is showing here is that there will be a phase between the northern and southern streams and the storm will likely come further up the coast affecting people further north as well. The problem is that no model can depict those possibilities with much accuracy past 7 days. So, I believe that future runs of the Euro will start to further hone in on this possibility over the next few runs. But please guys, stop crapping up the thread with all of the nonsense posts. They are just annoying. Furthermore from HPC:

MID LEVEL BLOCKING WITH A LARGE VERY STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY

RETURNS TO NERN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO

AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF AND GFS/CMC MEANS. STRONG SRN STREAM MID

LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE

ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND

ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

[Quincy]

i dont see how analyzing the euro 9-10 day is any different from analyzing the GFS at 384

It was partially in jest. DT is honking big time on his Facebook page, FWIW.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Well, obviously we cannot take details overly seriously at this point in time. However...the key thing to look for in the models, and the key question to ask, is whether the pattern overall might support something around that time. There does seem to be some possibility based on that from the little bit that I've looked at, though admittedly I haven't analyzed much for the past few days. I suppose for right now, that's what we need to look for. I have noticed (as have others) that the pattern also suggests colder than originally thought over the next couple of weeks. We'll see how that pans out, too.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Some of the analysis in this thread is rather silly and annoying.

True

If you don't want to analyze a model out to 10 days, then don't, but please don't crap up the thread with your stupid comments about how it does not make sense to do so, because it makes a lot of sense to analyze the models out this far. There is clearly the potential for a storm in this time frame, and possibly a significant one along the eastern seaboard.

I agree, models are showing a threat, and this thread is open for valid discussion of this threat, so stop with all the hating.

You must read through the details to find the likely outcome. To me, the likely outcome based upon what the Euro is showing here is that there will be a phase between the northern and southern streams and the storm will likely come further up the coast affecting people further north as well.

Disagree, even with the phase at the moment this looks to be a Southeast/Southern Mid Atl threat, sorry NE guys

[Edge Weather]

Well, thank you for agreeing with me on the first two points. But I disagree with you on the third point. Look at the Euro at 240 hrs if you have access to it at this time frame. It has what appears to be a transfer to the coast or some type of elongated trough with a precip max extending inland from Cape May, NJ to almost Buffalo, NY. My best guess is that this is an error, but it is showing the true potential of a full phase with the northern stream that would bring this storm northward from Cape Hatteras to off the NJ Coast, in similar fashion to what just happened with this last storm. The model just can't get the details right this far out. Remember all the trouble it had getting the details correct with the last storm. It also showed a storm heading out to sea after getting to Cape Hatteras. We all know how that ended up. I expect something similar this time as well. This is my read on what the model is indicating.

True

I agree, models are showing a threat, and this thread is open for valid discussion of this threat, so stop with all the hating.

Disagree, even with the phase at the moment this looks to be a Southeast/Southern Mid Atl threat, sorry NE guys

[Organizing Low]

He is honking with good reason. Just look at what HPC is already saying.

MID LEVEL BLOCKING WITH A LARGE VERY STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY

RETURNS TO NERN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO

AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF AND GFS/CMC MEANS. STRONG SRN STREAM MID

LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE

ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND

ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

Chapter 1: Initialization

[Ji]

this might be the storm of 2011

[Ji]

gfs says to wait abouta week

[HKY_WX]

The setup on the euro is close to the dec 19 2009 storm. The surface low track isn't really that similar on the euro at this point, but the overall pattern is. Strong 500mb low over maine, lack of arctic HP, warm up aloft ahead of the SLP, strong greenland block.

This will probably be a dynamically driven system with a cutoff or phased low. There is the chance it goes out to sea after hitting NC/VA with that greenland block in place again. Only thing we need is for a pj wave to phase with the stj wave.

[CAPE]

Some of the analysis in this thread is rather silly and annoying. If you don't want to analyze a model out to 10 days, then don't, but please don't crap up the thread with your stupid comments about how it does not make sense to do so, because it makes a lot of sense to analyze the models out this far. There is clearly the potential for a storm in this time frame, and possibly a significant one along the eastern seaboard. Of course details will be uncertain, but that is what is supposed to be the fun of this hobby, trying to figure out the details. If some of you are looking to read a model verbatim at this time frame, you will always be disappointed. No model will ever get the details right past 7 days, ever. But what the Euro is showing is the potential. You must read through the details to find the likely outcome. To me, the likely outcome based upon what the Euro is showing here is that there will be a phase between the northern and southern streams and the storm will likely come further up the coast affecting people further north as well. The problem is that no model can depict those possibilities with much accuracy past 7 days. So, I believe that future runs of the Euro will start to further hone in on this possibility over the next few runs. But please guys, stop crapping up the thread with all of the nonsense posts. They are just annoying. Furthermore from HPC:

MID LEVEL BLOCKING WITH A LARGE VERY STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY

RETURNS TO NERN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO

AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF AND GFS/CMC MEANS. STRONG SRN STREAM MID

LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE

ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND

ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

agreed...someone complaining about no high in SE Canada and it trending north and warm? holy crap look at that huge block retrograding westward and pushing the PV southward on the Euro...that looks mighty cold and if anything will suppress the storm track.

[atownwxwatcher]

If the 12 Z ECM is over doing the southern extent and strength of the Polar Vortex then you would be looking at this storm system coming further north up the eastern seaboard. That is the only reason why this slides off the coast of Hatteras....

[Ender]

The setup on the euro is close to the dec 19 2009 storm. The surface low track isn't really that similar on the euro at this point, but the overall pattern is. Strong 500mb low over maine, lack of arctic HP, warm up aloft ahead of the SLP, strong greenland block.

This will probably be a dynamically driven system with a cutoff or phased low. There is the chance it goes out to sea after hitting NC/VA with that greenland block in place again. Only thing we need is for a pj wave to phase with the stj wave.

A key, and critical (for NOVA), difference would be the western ridge axis and strength. In 2009 it was nearly ideal...

Oh...and that bit of energy in the SW. Who knows what havoc that may imbue.

[donsutherland1]

IMO, the Euro may be onto something. I suspect that there is potential in likely pattern over the next 7-14 days. Certainly, some of the objective analogs also hint at such possibilities. It will be interesting to see if the GFS begins to come into agreement with the idea of a possible storm in subsequent runs.

[Amped]

00z is even better shows a HECS.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[BL03]

00z EURO 12/31 reloads the pattern after the front sun night/ monday and a great blocking pattern/ - NAO leading to the potential storm JAN 8. Euro shows a strong s/w moving thru the SW US and phasing with the northern stream resulting in a major storm for parts of the EC.