Ian Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS no dice.. Looks pretty much like euro. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Not much on the GFS. It looks like the Euro at this time. Back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Dang...just like that? I guess it's technically slightly better than the euro but close enough. I don't really believe we have any shot from the wed/thurs sys but hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah I guess so...good luckat least the days are getting longer and we are inching closer to a cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm watching "Ground Hog Day" on Movie Plex and there's just so much about that movie and our wx that its disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I guess it's technically slightly better than the euro but close enough. I don't really believe we have any shot from the wed/thurs sys but hopefully I'm wrong. I've never liked it, hence the lack of posts. The pattern isn't quite right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 not even a chance at light snow wes? I don't see much chance from the clipper with the low going to our north and even if we see snow, temps will be too warm to stick. Beyond that, the pattern is Ok for clippers and light events but not good for big one. It's a dry pattern and the southern stream is pretty much dead or overwhelmed. However, beyond a week, the models don't have much skill so my inclinations about the pattern for the next 10 day to 2 weeks could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looking at this setup closer, it seems like something is still not right with the evolution as shown on the GFS. If a large upper low (PV) is digging southeast into MN/WI, there will be ridging infront of it at 500mb. If there was not ridging, the PV would not be able to dig down. At the same time, the piece of s/w energy ejecting from the four corners is fairly strong at 72 hours and then gets obliterated by the fast flow by the GFS. If we have ridging around the lakes at the same time as the PV starts to come south, how is this obliterated? The s/w should slow down in response, and amplify with a pretty good storm over the southeast. I think this is the point that Tip is getting at in his thread with timing. Last night's GFS run (seems better to me- 4 corners s/w slows and amplifies): 12Z (Missing the 4 corners s/w): Then, the 4 corners s/w would be caught by the PV and begin to phase it. This would mean really one storm versus two separate and distinct events. This type of solution was what was advertized by the Euro two days ago, 12Z GGEM yesterday and many of the GFS Ensemble members continue such an evolution. There is one problem... while I believe there will be a big time storm over the east late this week... I can totally see DC getting screwed with a full phase occurring too late and it being a NE snow event...and being too far north as the LP passes to our south. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm hugging HM's maps and don't care what anyone else thinks. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43830/two-snow-events-and-extremely-cold-weather.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yet people get so down and horribly pessamistic when a run shows nothing? For god sakes I guess there should be no discussion of weather more than 3 days in advance! Good thing I said none of the stuff you just posted, so I'm not sure what you are saying and who it is aimed at. But carry on! For god sakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 euro looks blah.. still trying to amplify late on the southern stream thingy in about a week but it's a miss and it keeps shifting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 In the spirit of potential. Here are the D+8 and D+11 analogs in rough, de-dup'd, order. The dates are color coded by region 3.4's temperature anomaly. Those that were at least +.25 are red and those that were at least -.25 are blue. Interestingly all but one of the analog years met that enso criteria. Even more interesting, most of them (except '69 and '76 I think) were in the -.5 to -.95 or +.5 to +.95 range rather than the moderate/strong > +/- 1C range and those two were only into the +/-1.15 rather than the more extreme -1.4 or so that we're at right now. Also of note, the Nino years seem to out number Ninas, at least in this list. This is a change from November into mid December when several really impressive Nina years ('50, '51, '54, '55, '73, and '98/'99, '07) were dominating this list. I've watched "less extreme" Ninas, and now Ninos, gradually push those strong Ninas off the daily analogs list over the past week. I hope the trend continues, though, if it does, I'll have no idea why. One would assume this is simply a short term change. Just in case it's not obvious, D[+/-]# refers to the number of days into the future (or past) that the listed snowfall amount took place. Each station's second column is the total amount of snow recorded in the days following the targeted analog date (IOW sum of D0...D15 and discarding D-1...D-5). I only looked back five days and forward up to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The Euro's solution is radically different day 5-7. It just doesn't bring the PV down from Canada. If indeed accurate, that might help us out by not crusing southern stream waves. What a year with major flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The Euro's solution is radically different day 5-7. It just doesn't bring the PV down from Canada. If indeed accurate, that might help us out by not crusing southern stream waves. What a year with major flip flops. agree witcha' there 100% its just a shame that as of today, none of the flip-flops have gone in our favor hopefully, that changes at some point in the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 there isnt much continuity for sure but euro has continued to look suppressed as a whole. there may be an opp with that system a week from now but it's been all over the place so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Part of the problem is that all of the key elements are up in the nether region and not getting well sampled. We can start to look for some clues soon on the NAM as it handled the last storm somewhat better than the Euro and GFS as the players got within <60hrs on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Irrespective of the lack of snow chances, does anyone have a good read on just how cold it's going to get. The Euro and GFS both appear to have severe cold, but not sure how cold is cold? Are we talking normal January cold, or could this become something more memorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Irrespective of the lack of snow chances, does anyone have a good read on just how cold it's going to get. The Euro and GFS both appear to have severe cold, but not sure how cold is cold? Are we talking normal January cold, or could this become something more memorable? To me the GFS surface temps never have looked crazy cold but you would think with all of the talk that we would be looking at some high temps in the 20's and lows in the middle teens? I don't know though so somebody will chime in I'm sure. Ellinwood thinks without snowcover it probably won't get down too low which makes sense I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well i do not know what everyone is crying about the new run of the GFS puts Baltimore right on the .25-.50 border, i would gladly take 2 to 5 inches over the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 To me the GFS surface temps never have looked crazy cold but you would think with all of the talk that we would be looking at some high temps in the 20's and lows in the middle teens? I don't know though so somebody will chime in I'm sure. Ellinwood thinks without snowcover it probably won't get down too low which makes sense I guess. Things you need for ideal super cold nights: Low 850mb temps Clear Skies Little to no wind (mixing) Snow on the Ground Early Sunday Morning looks to be the best candidate based on the 12z GFS (Granted it IS 5 days out), it meets all of the above criteria except you have a triangle wind barb pointing NW at 950 mb.. I'd imagine a high wind warning for some of the western facing slopes with that kind of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What a mess. Becoming clear that separate threats (Wednesday/Thursday) is dead and it will be consolidated into one threat Fri/Sat... We'll all have to see how this strong vort is handled in the next two days of model runs. The more the block is able to nose into NE Canada the more SE this can dive. Get it far enough south it can back the flow, and potentially grab some GOM moisture. This is a Miller B threat.. and I'd be quite concerned of a MA screwing with the setup. Root for a block on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Dt jumped all over the the 00z Gfs storm and posted it on his Facebook page without any other model support for a southern stream event. Tries to hit a home run too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like the 18z gfs hammers Garrett county....at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Garrett county is hammered every run. Loudoun county not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Chuck just posted in the main forum about this maybe ending up being one of the coldest winters in a long time so it would be pretty fitting for us to have historic cold in a La Nina with almost no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Chuck just posted in the main forum about this maybe ending up being one of the coldest winters in a long time so it would be pretty fitting for us to have historic cold in a La Nina with almost no snow. Didn't Chuck go blowtorch this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Didn't Chuck go blowtorch this winter? Are you trolling? He vehemently supported his forecast from spring all the way until late summer for near warmest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Can't complain about the GFS180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Can't complain about the GFS180. its most of the panels afterward we can, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lol... what the heck is this crap... is this what Feb 1899 would look like on the GFS? Jesus... now that is an Arctic outbreak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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