JMU2004 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 nice little storm near the va border this run that is unexpected! eh...nevermind. precip starved up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 that is unexpected! eh...nevermind. precip starved up here It's really trying to give us a little snow. I appreciate the effort! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Stupid question here- was the moisture now in southern ohio now expected? can't imagine it will survive the trip over the mountains, but I thought this trough was supposed to really have precip only to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Stupid question here- was the moisture now in southern ohio now expected? can't imagine it will survive the trip over the mountains, but I thought this trough was supposed to really have precip only to the north. LWX has been pretty specific on their thinking for the past couple of days. This discussion from early this morning explained their thinking well, especially in terms of the first disturbance setting up the atmosphere for tomorrow morning. From 3:37 AM discussion. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THERE WILL BE TWO MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI MRNG. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU LATE THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAK AND HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. IT WILL...HOWEVER...HELP SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TNGT. 00Z NAM/GFS DIAGNOSTICS REVEAL SUFFICIENT MID-LVL LIFT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO REACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STARTING THIS EVE. Then this afternoon's discussion describing tomorrow morning. MID LEVEL FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP REACHES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE ROBUST FORCING AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW AT BAND OR TWO OF SNOW TO DEVELOP. WITH LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW LAYER...THE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE MAY BE MAXIMIZED IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...MAY INCREASE TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE DC METRO TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND CLOSER TO AN INCH FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE METRO AREA. Personally, I'm shocked that I've got an 80% chance of snow between 1AM and 10AM tomorrow for up to an inch, but right now I'm in the camp of "that's why they are forecasters and I'm a dumb putz that looks at models and says, 'Show me the green!'" Hopefully, I still feel that way tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just switched from accu forums always wondered where our local mets hung out at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just switched from accu forums always wondered where our local mets hung out at night I don't think ANY of our local mets would EVER hang out at the Accuweather forums. But Eagle Man would probably beg to differ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems that most of the models have moistened up a bit . Think we cloud squeeze a suprise out of this as the ull passes over the area ! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just saw Justin berkshire post about half way up the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just saw Justin berkshire post about half way up the page Do you mean Justin Berk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems that most of the models have moistened up a bit . Think we cloud could squeeze a suprise surprise out of this as the ull passes over the area ! ? I mean sure...but is it likely? Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes I did not type the shire part my I touch did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes I did not type the shire part my I touch did Got to love the Apple auto-correct lol. I've had some odd corrections on weather forums with mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 we need to figure out how to keep our links off accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I mean sure...but is it likely? Nah. I think that the Gfsthe nam both hint at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i think we should see some decent snow showers or squalls .. they could be quite hit or miss though. most will get little or nothing i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i think we should see some decent snow showers or squalls .. they could be quite hit or miss though. most will get little or nothing i suppose. Just took a look through my usual list of weenie models that Yoda and I like using (and you like to poopoo during svr season) They seem to like a little band forming from the Potomac northward into PA during the 09z-12z timeframe. Short lived but might put down a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not with the same nicknames anyway. I don't think ANY of our local mets would EVER hang out at the Accuweather forums. But Eagle Man would probably beg to differ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i think we should see some decent snow showers or squalls .. they could be quite hit or miss though. most will get little or nothing i suppose. Think your right Nothing big but some times your surprised especially when the temps will be falling. I should look and see what the700 mb rhm look like and we can see if there will be any thing to squeeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just took a look through my usual list of weenie models that Yoda and I like using (and you like to poopoo during svr season) They seem to like a little band forming from the Potomac northward into PA during the 09z-12z timeframe. Short lived but might put down a coating. A coating or maybe alttle more than we have gotten yet. And yes I'm pretty much a snow weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A coating or maybe alttle more than we have gotten yet. And yes I'm pretty much a snow weenie My only reasoning on a coating is the short lived and isolated nature of it. I don't really think anybody will see SN+. But I could see moderate snow if a nice squall/shower comes into an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Think it could be more than a squall as that low pressure to our south and the squeeze play with the inverted trough and that low takes place. We will see but won't hold my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am looking forward to a snow shower or two over the next few days. I think I forgot what the real thing looks like. If I don't get a snow shower I'll just look at Ian's book on last years storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Think it could be more than a squall as that low pressure to our south and the squeeze play with the inverted trough and that low takes place. We will see but won't hold my breath for now you should just dip your keyboard in water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My only reasoning on a coating is the short lived and isolated nature of it. I don't really think anybody will see SN+. But I could see moderate snow if a nice squall/shower comes into an area. yesterday it looked like a dusting to .5" was a decent bet but the models went dry since.. i think 500/700 support the idea of some potentially intense snow showers. but cold fronts are often dry here so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nam has a band of decent snow showers on the simulted radar. I'll consider it a overperformer if I get a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nah. Would rather discuss the probabilitys of at least some winter weather coming our way. Even if I can't spell very well or come off as a major weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 for now you should just dip your keyboard in water - Now, now Ian. Let us be easy on him...he did just come from Accuweather forums...where we all know weenies are born! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nc is stealing all the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 *map* Awesome 998 high lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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