aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Already a bunch of red flags for this potential next event next weekend....I'm laying low for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 12z 12/30 euro is officially on board for this at day 9 with a low around Wilmington NC that looks to be running due E or maybe ENE off the coast. Certainly looks cold enough for you guys up there if the moisture can make it in. can you post a map please!! thanks. that is yesterdays, isn't it. Does the 00z run show it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 A REQUEST: Can we keep the "the storm is at X," "the QPF is 0.1" more this run," "how much does the Euro give MBY," etc. posts out of the picture until we're within the 84 hour window? It has been and will always be pointless banter. This far out, we need to be looking at the upper-levels, possible model inaccuracies and probable outcomes of the system. excellent post.!!! Let the mets and more experienced observers handle this one. Too many people who dont know what their talking about giving analysis. It clutters up the thread to the point you dont really know what is true.I know is a hobbyist board, but the people that really want to know what is going on, extraneous posts ruin a valuable model thread. Not trying to be nasty, but the last storm too many people who have no idea of what is going on commented. I,m content to sit on the side line and read. Others should follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 can you post a map please!! thanks. that is yesterdays, isn't it. Does the 00z run show it?? Yesterdays 12Z Todays 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 excellent post.!!! Let the mets and more experienced observers handle this one. Too many people who dont know what their talking about giving analysis. It clutters up the thread to the point you dont really know what is true.I know is a hobbyist board, but the people that really want to know what is going on, extraneous posts ruin a valuable model thread. Not trying to be nasty, but the last storm too many people who have no idea of what is going on commented. I,m content to sit on the side line and read. Others should follow suit. I have to agree with this. AMEN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yesterdays 12Z Todays 00Z seems to be considerable difference bettween runs. Seems like euro pulling low closer to coast compared to earlier run. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 seems to be considerable difference bettween runs. Seems like euro pulling low closer to coast compared to earlier run. Thanks 00Z has northern energy phasing into the southern short wave and bring the low up the coast whereas the 12Z doesn't and it has an out to sea solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 just looked at the euro WOW what a storm, still to far away but looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 <br />Already a bunch of red flags for this potential next event next weekend....I'm laying low for this one.<br /><br /><br /><br />Shouldn't you be out buying your big boy pants? Anyway, there is likely going to be a storm somewhere on or off the east coast next weekend. Suppression/OTS is certainly a possibility, but this is something worth following. Hopefully we can get a met to chime in about the set-up and how it may evolve. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Shouldn't you be out buying your big boy pants? Anyway, there is likely going to be a storm somewhere on or off the east coast next weekend. Suppression/OTS is certainly a possibility, but this is something worth following. Hopefully we can get a met to chime in about the set-up and how it may evolve. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 just looked at the euro WOW what a storm, still to far away but looks promising That's a great setup on the 00Z 192 hour wouldn't you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Already a bunch of red flags for this potential next event next weekend....I'm laying low for this one. Soggy leesburg is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Soggy leesburg is back! I know right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Here's the next threat popping up. Looking at the setup at this time I would think that would go up into the midwest and great lakes if not even farther west then that. 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Already a bunch of red flags for this potential next event next weekend....I'm laying low for this one. You will hug the models like Ji. It's OK, we all understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looking at the 00Z GFS NAO from Allens site wouldn't this argue for 2 events on the east coast. One around the 7th and 8th and the other 3 or 4 days later? The funny thing is that what the GFS is showing here is that the NAO is technically positive out by the 16th. The blocking retrogrades into the Davis/Baffin area, allowing the negative height anomolies to retrograde from Europe westward and eventually nip Iceland. There is still one hell of a block up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i cant believe we're really talking about a day, what 8?, threat.. yeah this is a wx board so we should but does anyone believe it at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i cant believe we're really talking about a day, what 8?, threat.. yeah this is a wx board so we should but does anyone believe it at all? Soggy Ian is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Here's the next threat popping up. Looking at the setup at this time I would think that would go up into the midwest and great lakes if not even farther west then that. 00Z This would be an Archumbault event. The blocking would have to reload again afterwards, similar to this weekends events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i cant believe we're really talking about a day, what 8?, threat.. yeah this is a wx board so we should but does anyone believe it at all? You have to believe when you think you are going to get screwed all winter. For the last storm the Euro was pretty damn good this far out except for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Soggy Ian is back! i should have stayed soggy last time. yeah someone will chime in with -- the euro picked up on the blizz around this time etc. i mean whatever.. im not going to spend too much time on it myself at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i should have stayed soggy last time. yeah someone will chime in with -- the euro picked up on the blizz around this time etc. i mean whatever.. im not going to spend too much time on it myself at least. Damn you are a mindreader . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You have to believe when you think you are going to get screwed all winter. For the last storm the Euro was pretty damn good this far out except for our area. you beat my post! ill hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Soggy leesburg is back! I prefer the term cautiously soggy....thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 man i had to look at the 0z euro... lol. super bomb again...976 just off nc to 962 well east of delmarva. if va beach gets another 1'+ and i get nothing i will never post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 man i had to look at the 0z euro... lol. super bomb again...976 just off nc to 962 well east of delmarva. if va beach gets another 1'+ and i get nothing i will never post again. Trust me all though we are all hoping that happens , it will not happen guaranteed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 man i had to look at the 0z euro... lol. super bomb again...976 just off nc to 962 well east of delmarva. if va beach gets another 1'+ and i get nothing i will never post again. Chase to Norfolk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Who's going to start a thread to track Wednesday's/Thursdays possible event? 12Z GFS JUST misses a phase with the spoke of energy moving SE around the PV and a s/w ejecting out of the four corners. 6Z does not miss, but is weak with the surface reflection. If the phase occurs it would likely slow and back the fast flow enough to get precip up in here. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf150.html Let's see what the Euro says today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Who's going to start a thread to track Wednesday's/Thursdays possible event? 12Z GFS JUST misses a phase with the spoke of energy moving SE around the PV and a s/w ejecting out of the four corners. 6Z does not miss, but is weak with the surface reflection. If the phase occurs it would likely slow and back the fast flow enough to get precip up in here. Let's see what the Euro says today. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf150.html soggy>sounds like we have a lot of misses to track<soggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Chase to Norfolk? might be smart. unfortunately there is precedent (with several different storms) for places south to do well and us to mainly miss out. now i said i wouldnt watch, which is a lie i guess, but there is certainly a tendency for big storms on the east coast for over a yr now... so the euro is perhaps already catching on to something. if it wasnt 8 days away and knowing how the last one ended up i'd like where we sit at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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