stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 12Z nam brought back the flurries/dusting and the gfs looks like it will to tho it's only out to 30 hrs. We have been reduced to hoping for flurries. My God, how the mighty have fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We have been reduced to hoping for flurries. My God, how the mighty have fallen. The gfs doesn't even give us that. I still think we have a shot early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 72 hour GFS has the vortex from Hades over the great lakes which might screw things up for next week depending on the timing of the other players. It's much stronger than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We have been reduced to hoping for flurries. My God, how the mighty have fallen. 12z NAM gives BWI .08" of liquid equivalent. With decent ratios, that might be 1" of snow. That would be a 50% increase to my seasonal total. I'm riding it all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 72 hour GFS has the vortex from Hades over the great lakes which might screw things up for next week depending on the timing of the other players. It's much stronger than the previous run. The primary southern s/w is also slower on this run though, so perhaps it comes out in the wash? Correction...that was the first storm which goes OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 72 hour GFS has the vortex from Hades over the great lakes which might screw things up for next week depending on the timing of the other players. It's much stronger than the previous run. Well I dunno..things look a bit more amplified this run than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The primary southern s/w is also slower on this run though, so perhaps it comes out in the wash? Correction...that was the first storm which goes OTS. LOL...guess it doesn't go OTS. Seems to hang around to merge with the Plains s/w. Wow...funky ass solution. Think it might be a good hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LWX very "bullish" with the snow tomorrow night and Friday. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --A LOW RETROGRADING FROM QUEBEC WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...SENDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW POTENTIAL...WITH MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH THERMAL LAYER. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND ALLOW A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY ACROSS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. BOTH THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...SO SNOWFALL OF PERHAPS A QUICK HALF INCH ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST WOULD INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL MARYLAND. TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MORNING RUSH. THEREFORE DESPITE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SNOWFALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA /2 INCHES/ THE IMPACT ON MORNING TRAVEL WOULD STILL WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE GREATER BALT-WASH METRO. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Time for Storm Mode? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Time for Storm Mode? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You gotta scale back your expectations to the Winter 2010-11 reality, man. If that verifies, it'd be my 2nd biggest accumulation of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Time for Storm Mode? http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Looks like the map on December 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 In all seriousness, not sure what they're seeing on the 18z NAM. Gives DC and Balt maybe a couple hundredths at most. Couple as in .01 or .02. Not .08. Oh well...I'm just going to pretend we're getting 1" of snow until I wake up to sunny skies and bare ground Friday and Saturday mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 In all seriousness, not sure what they're seeing on the 18z NAM. Gives DC and Balt maybe a couple hundredths at most. Couple as in .01 or .02. Not .08. Oh well...I'm just going to pretend we're getting 1" of snow until I wake up to sunny skies and bare ground Friday and Saturday mornings. must have meant 12z tho the 18z does still have a band move through with the front. im not terribly concerned about qpf output either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Can we just get a peek at the bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Can we just get a peek at the bus? Not yet. I'll give the garage code when I see something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i hang my weenie on Jan 5,2003. NAM and GFS gave us .01 qpf for a clipper and we got 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i hang my weenie on Jan 5,2003. NAM and GFS gave us .01 qpf for a clipper and we got 5 inches must have gone south.. this is basically a cold front passage. i think we'll get the ground whitened in many spots at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Seems like everyone has already punted on tonight/tomorrow's flizzard for next week, but LWX is still "optimistic" on this one. Not sure I know the reason why though. They're saying around 1" for Balt and points N/E. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --THERE WILL BE TWO MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI MRNG. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU LATE THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAK AND HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. IT WILL...HOWEVER...HELP SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TNGT. 00Z NAM/GFS DIAGNOSTICS REVEAL SUFFICIENT MID-LVL LIFT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO REACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STARTING THIS EVE. VEERING WLY FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY THE ERY MRNG. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS AN ULVL JET STREAK DIVES SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH. FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING LATE NGT/ERY MRNG. 00Z CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT/MESOSCALE BANDING IN A NARROW TONGUE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF BANDING IS UNKNOWN ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE BAND WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE METRO AREAS. WHILE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW WILL FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO DROP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS AND ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MRNG RUSH HR COMMUTE. THEREFORE...A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER TDA OR TNGT. THE BEST LIFT/HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE A WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING 10 PM TNGT. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THERE. MOST OF THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MRNG WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Seems like everyone has already punted on tonight/tomorrow's flizzard for next week, but LWX is still "optimistic" on this one. Not sure I know the reason why though. They're saying around 1" for Balt and points N/E. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ We're all just avoiding making a loud noise or looking it in the eye so it does not get frightened away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Watching the 12Z GFS come in and the upper level energy for the 'norlund' tough to be is a little weaker, yet the back side of the trough is stronger and farther south.... I think we could allow the snow to drop farther south before the spin up the coast.... I also see the upper level energy supporting snow on Saturday for Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lookin' good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lookin' good Right where we want it. I'm riding LWX's experimental snow forecast until the wheels fall off http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lookin' good WWA up for Philly anf south jersey and cecil county md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm riding LWX's experimental snow forecast until the wheels fall off http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ That's cool! I wish NWS Pit would do one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 this might need a radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I keep seeing "Abandon Ship" out of the corner of my eye, and thinking it says "Abortion Trip." Makes sense, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm riding LWX's experimental snow forecast until the wheels fall off http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Optimistic forecast !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 nice little storm near the va border this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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