mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 there are sooooo many short waves on that 5H map, there's no way any of the models is going to figure this out today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does anyone have the H5 map for February 10 last year? Just want to see what it looked like. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6762-tracking-the-jan-7-9-threat-for-those-with-strong-hearts/page__view__findpost__p__215435 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does anyone have the H5 map for February 10 last year? Just want to see what it looked like. it will make you cry this looks nothing like it \it had the short wave coming SE out of the midwest then moving due east from southern KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 there are sooooo many short waves on that 5H map, there's no way any of the models is going to figure this out today story of the season. nam is kinda whacked overall but i dont think the 500 at 84 is that great a look for us. we gotta hope for some good snow showers etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 there are sooooo many short waves on that 5H map, there's no way any of the models is going to figure this out today Yes they are all strung out with all that energy on the backside. We need it to be a bit more consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 it will make you cry this looks nothing like it \it had the short wave coming SE out of the midwest then moving due east from southern KY Yeah thats what I figured I just wanted to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 a short wave coming from our NW almost directly at us isn't going to work for us we need it to be to our due west or SW, with the base of the trough no further north than a line running along the VA/NC boarder and being along that line by or before the time it reaches Southern WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hmm, now which Low will dominate, that IS the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Try looking at it with your trained eye. MDstorm Well, congrats I suppose. "Looks good aloft" and all that. Enjoy the next six hours. You earned it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So can anyone comment as to what we need to scrape together a decent light snow/snow shower event. Maybe 1-3 inches. If the H5 short wave passes to our S would that theoretically be enough? I'm really hoping to get any kind of accumulating snow. EDIT: Question answered by mitchnick before i finished asking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hmm, now which Low will dominate, that IS the question the one offshore.. though three seperate lows is probably bunk anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 it does look like the NAM wants to continue to dig the trough in a SE'ly movement to our south which I cannot recall seeing before, although 12/26 miss was similar, which doesn't give me a whole lot of goose bumps http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like the 12z GFS has a similar depiction at h5 to the NAM through 24 to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There are just too many shortwaves to put any confidence in the models for this Friday. I think this will end up being a nowcast with so many players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like the 12z GFS has a similar depiction at h5 to the NAM through 24 to me.... 42 hr GFS is a little deeper with the trough than NAM at 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 looks like through 54 hrs GFS will consolidate the 5H low over GL and it will never make the move south as depicted by the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 naso good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 looks like through 54 hrs GFS will consolidate the 5H low over GL and it will never make the move south as depicted by the NAM What, did you expect it to? NAM is probably carp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 im putting all my hopes in 6 hours of heavy flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 im putting all my hopes in 6 hours of heavy flurries Well the rh map at 72 looks dark green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Relatively speaking, its pretty good moisture on the map. Maybe we can eek out an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Relatively speaking, its pretty good moisture on the map. Maybe we can eek out an inch? that's really all we can reasonably hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 that's really all we can reasonably hope for yes but it could be tough to even get that as is.. very light precip, temps marginal during the day. someone could cash out in a snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 after 96 hours, we've gotta' hope for the FRI/SAT thing to get the he!! outta' the way for next week's thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 on the bright side at least we dont get tricked into following a norlun.. sne suckers http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You can cut the reverse psychology in this thread with a knife.. I just hope its a hari-kari knife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 im moving the second threat stuff here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7062-the-jan-11-14-storm-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey look we're within 84h finally... I think we could see some accumulating snow in DC... only about 1/4 to 1/2 inch though, with up to an inch in outlying areas. GFS seems to be introducing a little more QPF over the region with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey look we're within 84h finally... I think we could see some accumulating snow in DC... only about 1/4 to 1/2 inch though, with up to an inch in outlying areas. GFS seems to be introducing a little more QPF over the region with every run. Just checked the 12z Bufkit files.. Seems consistent with about .5" (snow, not qpf) throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's no coincidence that DT and HM appear together on my FB page posting at the same time. Birds of a feather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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