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Tracking the Jan 7-9 threat---for those with strong hearts


MDstorm

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I give up. I knew this winter would suck, all the way back in last February I'd resigned myself to the fact. I thought I was "okay" with it. Obviously I'm not. It's pointless, trust me when I say that every time you dare to hope you'll end up kicked in the teeth. That's about as good as it'll get...the occasional thrill offered by the false promise of a 186hr 4" snowfall will have to sustain you until next winter.

It's gonna be cold though. Damn cold. If you have a spray bottle that can shoot a fine mist then there just might be reason to get excited.

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Seems like models are starting to converge on a solution.

A strong vort is going to round the PV as it begins its SE advance, and that vort is what is actually going to trigger the coastal. We want the PV to stay a little NW, in the lakes, so that when that vort swings through the midwest and into the MA, we are along or just north of it's path. If the vort is too far south, we truly get squat. This will happen Friday night.

If timed right, I think we can get some light snow accumulations... not significant by any means, but beats bare ground.

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Its not crap. But its not great shakes either.

NAM > 48 hours tho

Yeah, I mean, like I said, I'm not gonna go and get all excited over it or anything - just something to keep an eye on. If nothing else, the further south/west development and southern stream energy bodes well for our chances of getting our token inch or two. And while it's still not enough, seeing the coastal pop off of Hatteras instead of NJ is certainly a big step in the right direction.

And true, it's the NAM at 84h...one MORE step in this direction would make things very interesting for us, however.

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the faster system #1 (shotwave in AZ currently) gets the hell out of the way the more chance this thing has to deliver at least a couple of inches....

2 things need to occur for this to be more than that

a) no eastern lobe of the PV (GFS has been trending away from it to some extent)

B) capture of the shortwave digging in behind the vortex (our pseudo 50/50 low from system #1 may aide in that.

Right now if I had to make a call, I'd say anywhere from a dusting to an inch for NYC but I'm becoming more confident this is going to be a big storm for someone, probably providence if I had to make a best guess right now.

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the faster system #1 (shotwave in AZ currently) gets the hell out of the way the more chance this thing has to deliver at least a couple of inches....

2 things need to occur for this to be more than that

a) no eastern lobe of the PV (GFS has been trending away from it to some extent)

B) capture of the shortwave digging in behind the vortex (our pseudo 50/50 low from system #1 may aide in that.

Right now if I had to make a call, I'd say anywhere from a dusting to an inch for NYC but I'm becoming more confident this is going to be a big storm for someone, probably providence if I had to make a best guess right now.

Wrong thread?

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yeah, but its the 84 hr NAM. We have said that alot before and seen nothing. We just need it to actually stay this time

True, the 84 NAM... but with this last near miss blizzard for us in DC area over Xmas the NAM, as far as I can remember, never showed appreciable QPF and that is what happened.

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