Coach McGuirk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Oz GFS a Midlantic yawner I'll take a few snow showers. My 15 inches of snow pack is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 00Z GFS is utterly boring through 108HR. The flurries or whatever some of you weenies are "tracking" for Thursday are not present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 0Z GFS -----pretty much sums up winter so far. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i cant wait till im tracking 90s again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Anyone see the Nogaps tonight between 84-96? Considering the model has a surpression bias in that time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i cant wait till im tracking 90s again If you're going to root for that there better be some severe in there to rival June 4, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I give up. I knew this winter would suck, all the way back in last February I'd resigned myself to the fact. I thought I was "okay" with it. Obviously I'm not. It's pointless, trust me when I say that every time you dare to hope you'll end up kicked in the teeth. That's about as good as it'll get...the occasional thrill offered by the false promise of a 186hr 4" snowfall will have to sustain you until next winter. It's gonna be cold though. Damn cold. If you have a spray bottle that can shoot a fine mist then there just might be reason to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Anyone see the Nogaps tonight between 84-96? For the love God, have you no pride? J/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think everyone on the east coast will get theirs once the season is over. I wouldn't be surprised if March has a big snow storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i cant wait till im tracking 90s again I like the sound of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Seems like models are starting to converge on a solution. A strong vort is going to round the PV as it begins its SE advance, and that vort is what is actually going to trigger the coastal. We want the PV to stay a little NW, in the lakes, so that when that vort swings through the midwest and into the MA, we are along or just north of it's path. If the vort is too far south, we truly get squat. This will happen Friday night. If timed right, I think we can get some light snow accumulations... not significant by any means, but beats bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Sigh...the NAM is trying to sucker me into staying interested. I won't fall for it NAM! Begone demon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Sigh...the NAM is trying to sucker me into staying interested. I won't fall for it NAM! Begone demon! NAM going way south with the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Sigh...the NAM is trying to sucker me into staying interested. I won't fall for it NAM! Begone demon! It looks like crap to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That's one weird system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It looks like crap to me. Really? I'm no expert, but it looks vastly improved to me by 72-78...still waiting on 84. Totally different orientation aloft and energy is much diggier on the backside. Better looking surface as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Really? I'm no expert, but it looks vastly improved to me by 72-78...still waiting on 84. Totally different orientation aloft and energy is much diggier on the backside. Better looking surface as a result. Its not crap. But its no great shakes either. NAM > 48 hours tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Its not crap. But its not great shakes either. NAM > 48 hours tho 84 looks interesting to my untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Its not crap. But its not great shakes either. NAM > 48 hours tho Yeah, I mean, like I said, I'm not gonna go and get all excited over it or anything - just something to keep an eye on. If nothing else, the further south/west development and southern stream energy bodes well for our chances of getting our token inch or two. And while it's still not enough, seeing the coastal pop off of Hatteras instead of NJ is certainly a big step in the right direction. And true, it's the NAM at 84h...one MORE step in this direction would make things very interesting for us, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What are you guys complaining about. The nam looks really good to whiten the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It looks like crap to me. Try looking at it with your trained eye. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the faster system #1 (shotwave in AZ currently) gets the hell out of the way the more chance this thing has to deliver at least a couple of inches.... 2 things need to occur for this to be more than that a) no eastern lobe of the PV (GFS has been trending away from it to some extent) capture of the shortwave digging in behind the vortex (our pseudo 50/50 low from system #1 may aide in that. Right now if I had to make a call, I'd say anywhere from a dusting to an inch for NYC but I'm becoming more confident this is going to be a big storm for someone, probably providence if I had to make a best guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the faster system #1 (shotwave in AZ currently) gets the hell out of the way the more chance this thing has to deliver at least a couple of inches.... 2 things need to occur for this to be more than that a) no eastern lobe of the PV (GFS has been trending away from it to some extent) capture of the shortwave digging in behind the vortex (our pseudo 50/50 low from system #1 may aide in that. Right now if I had to make a call, I'd say anywhere from a dusting to an inch for NYC but I'm becoming more confident this is going to be a big storm for someone, probably providence if I had to make a best guess right now. Wrong thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 FWIW.. thats a lot of h5 energy moving to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think the 84 NAM is the most promising thing we've had so far for this event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think the 84 NAM is the most promising thing we've had so far for this event.... yeah, but its the 84 hr NAM. We have said that alot before and seen nothing. We just need it to actually stay this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah, but its the 84 hr NAM. We have said that alot before and seen nothing. We just need it to actually stay this time Yeah it seems like this winter it's either the 84 hr NAM or the 200 something GFS that has our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does anyone have the H5 map for February 10 last year? Just want to see what it looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah, but its the 84 hr NAM. We have said that alot before and seen nothing. We just need it to actually stay this time True, the 84 NAM... but with this last near miss blizzard for us in DC area over Xmas the NAM, as far as I can remember, never showed appreciable QPF and that is what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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