mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 JMA looks ready to destroy us at 192. The Euro keeps pushing storm 2 back. I dont think its going to snow this year if this wasn't the 9th winter in a row you said that, I'd be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 if this wasn't the 9th winter in a row you said that, I'd be concerned Or the 9th post in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think we are all overlooking the good news here, which is that we just dodged a Ji-as-Admin bullet. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 JMA looks ready to destroy us at 192. The Euro keeps pushing storm 2 back. I dont think its going to snow this year If there was ever a reason to hope that it doesn't snow, you having to live with it would be my reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hmm, watch the 18z NAM. No, not saying anything special is gonna happen, but compare 54 at 18z to 48 at 12z. Ridge is a good bit better out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Should I become worried? Or play it off as poor initilaization or the NAM past 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hmm, watch the 18z NAM. No, not saying anything special is gonna happen, but compare 54 at 18z to 48 at 12z. Ridge is a good bit better out west at 66 hours some snows breaking out in va, seems like a little more southern stream interaction this run. I'll take whatever snow showers I can get this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 at 66 hours some snows breaking out in va, seems like a little more southern stream interaction this run. I'll take whatever snow showers I can get this weekend. LWX afternoon AFD and HWO mention potential for accum snows thurs night to saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LWX afternoon AFD and HWO mention potential for accum snows thurs night to saturday They also issued a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches on Sunday. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 They also issued a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches on Sunday. I'll believe it when I see it. That is true. Just saying its out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 .THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NEW LOW PRES SYSTEM TO DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST). LOOKING AT THE H50 ANOMALIES...LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT -4 TO -5 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES DVLPG OFF THE NC COAST FRI INTO SAT. THIS WOULD CHARACTERIZE/LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS TO DVLP...MAINLY TO N/NW OF IT OFF THE NJ/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST. TIMING OF THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SFC MODEL SOLNS FOR A FEW MORE RUNS (AT LEAST). BUT AT THIS POINT JUST UTILIZING H50 FLOW AND PATTERN RECOGNITION OF WHERE TRIPLE POINTS USUALLY CAN DVLP...THIS WOULD STIL LEAD TO SOME PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO FALL OVER THE CWA FRI AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE NW FLOW DVLPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY BOMB OUT. SUBSIDENCE DVLPS SAT NIGHT AND HOLDS OVER THE CWA SUN/MON BEHIND COASTAL SYSTEM (DRY WX). from wakefield nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the h5 piece would have to continue moving SE to give us any hope... and yes I know its the silly 84 hr map at 18z http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif Plus the sim radar at that wonky range at least has precip over us in the form of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 nam is actually kinda close to the euro last night at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 nam is actually kinda close to the euro last night at 500 Yeah, I mean granted it's the 18Z NAM @ 84h, but it looks about as good as we could have hoped. Nice to see something at least leaning in that sexy Euro direction from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nam looks kinda interesting at 84 hour. I'm sure I don't need to say the caveats by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, I mean granted it's the 18Z NAM @ 84h, but it looks about as good as we could have hoped. Nice to see something at least leaning in that sexy Euro direction from last night. there's just no real room for error if you want the coastal to impact us. i think we're better off hoping for the clipper rather than some .5% chance hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 nam is actually kinda close to the euro last night at 500 It sure does, but unfortunately we lost the Euro now. Oh the trials and tribulations of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 there's just no real room for error if you want the coastal to impact us. i think we're better off hoping for the clipper rather than some .5% chance hecs. I'd take a Dec 16 repeat in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It sure does, but unfortunately we lost the Euro now. Oh the trials and tribulations of model watching. given what we've already seen this yr and run to run with this potential i wouldnt be shocked to see the euro flip again but the solution last night was sort of ridiculous if you think about it. euro now looks close enough to the gfs as of last runs to not want to lean toward the 84 hr nam at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 They also issued a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches on Sunday. I'll believe it when I see it. Words of Wisdom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 They also issued a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches on Sunday. I'll believe it when I see it. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nam looks kinda interesting at 84 hour. I'm sure I don't need to say the caveats by now Doesn't it? The 18Z run has a much better defined/consolidated s/w, as compared to the 12Z NAM/GFS, that's a good 100mi or so further south. Not to mention that it's stronger...oh and the better southern stream energy... EDIT...The 18Z GFS clearly isn't willing to budge from it's much more sheared approach to things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Doesn't it? The 18Z run has a much better defined/consolidated s/w, as compared to the 12Z NAM/GFS, that's a good 100mi or so further south. Not to mention that it's stronger...oh and the better southern stream energy... EDIT...The 18Z GFS clearly isn't willing to budge from it's much more sheared approach to things. Tonight. The 0z GFS is gonna rock our world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Can't believe there are 20 pages for this time frame, not one inch in York,pa, don't see that changing. Sorry about negativity but this area is the snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Tonight. The 0z GFS is gonna rock our world. Mark my words. Hope you're right. This does seem to be quite the volatile pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Mark my words. Hope you're right. This does seem to be quite the volatile pattern. if you're looking for a clipper maybe not.. there's almost no chance the euro run from last night will happen imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The blocking has served to trend everything south and crush the bejesus out of clippers all December long. Why cant this work out in our favor for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Tonight. The 0z GFS is gonna rock our world. It might. At least compared to the 0Z GFS it's heading in the right direction. It's gotten considerably stronger with the energy just off the WA/BC coast. If the trend continues that would help amplify the ridge up through OR/WA. It's noticeably less flat than just 18hr ago. The center of the vortex, that was over eastern lake Ontario, around ART on 18Z Saturday is now prog'd to be over Lake Huron/Georgian Bay. There's still a long way to go, for something that's obviously a really long shot, but today's trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It might. At least compared to the 0Z GFS it's heading in the right direction. It's gotten considerably stronger with the energy just off the WA/BC coast. If the trend continues that would help amplify the ridge up through OR/WA. It's noticeably less flat than just 18hr ago. The center of the vortex, that was over eastern lake Ontario, around ART on 18Z Saturday is now prog'd to be over Lake Huron/Georgian Bay. There's still a long way to go, for something that's obviously a really long shot, but today's trend is our friend. A number of the 18Z Ensemble members identify this and start to crank the storm at the ORF/HSE latitude before taking it just OTS. I'll tell you what's going to happen. The southern storm will slow down and amplify. The PV will come down further west. Then boom DC will get 2 feet on the next 8 runs. It will then revert back to it's original idea of a Boston only storm 24 hours prior, and then we end up with more cold, dry, and brown. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A number of the 18Z Ensemble members identify this and start to crank the storm at the ORF/HSE latitude before taking it just OTS. I'll tell you what's going to happen. The southern storm will slow down and amplify. The PV will come down further west. Then boom DC will get 2 feet on the next 8 runs. It will then revert back to it's original idea of a Boston only storm 24 hours prior, and then we end up with more cold, dry, and brown. Bank on it. so jaded, and in only 481 posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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