TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS just took a huge step toward the Euro. I am still skeptical that things will work out for us here in MD/NOVA, but at least it's something interesting to keep an eye on. Boston wiped off the map according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, Ender already pissed on that one bud. I thought I was being positive, ...vort over NW WI at 96hr, that vort dives south of southeast to NW NC by 120hr...That's a somewhat unusual track...H5 setup, however, is also pretty unusual...so maybe I guess... :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, that was unexpected from the GFS...it did pop a low off of NC, but nothing even close to the Euro...some flurries to brighten the day I guess QPF is .1-.25 though... so maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Actually, compared to 0z, 6z, GFS is radically different in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS does form a coastal off of OBX at 102. But its to late for us. NNE could get crushed. And NNE does get demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What a mess. Becoming clear that separate threats (Wednesday/Thursday) is dead and it will be consolidated into one threat Fri/Sat... We'll all have to see how this strong vort is handled in the next two days of model runs. The more the block is able to nose into NE Canada the more SE this can dive. Get it far enough south it can back the flow, and potentially grab some GOM moisture. This is a Miller B threat.. and I'd be quite concerned of a MA screwing with the setup. Root for a block on steroids. To me the 0Z Euro is less about the actual PV majically dropping south into the Carolinas and more about it's interaction with the highlited piece of energy. I don't have the intermediate hours of the Euro, but I suspect it phases with this potent vort coming over top of the ridge and that is what aids the PV to get drug south and/or recenter itsself somewhere in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm leaving the room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS does form a coastal off of OBX at 102. But its to late for us. NNE could get crushed. It really wouldn't take much to make this very interesting for us. I'm game for a 1978 solution - who's with me? ;-) Am I correct in seeing that one important difference between the GFS and the Euro is that little piece of southern stream energy that is present on the Euro and the NAM, but not the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm leaving the room Good idea because you will just soggy it up for all us weenies hoping for a big storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 you would think with the position of the s/w and the way it dug, that there would be a better precip maker for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think this is very interesting, GFS has a nice little period of light snow/snow showers and Euro has a big storm. I'm hoping we can pull of a 1-3 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It really wouldn't take much to make this very interesting for us. I'm game for a 1978 solution - who's with me? ;-) Am I correct in seeing that one important difference between the GFS and the Euro is that little piece of southern stream energy that is present on the Euro and the NAM, but not the GFS? The energy is on GFS it just gets squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 216 1008mb off the nc coast nice va hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 trunaction destrotyed a nice snowstorm for us but most models are now on board with a Jan 11-14 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 216 1008mb off the nc coast nice va hit 1008! Ive seen high pressures that were 1008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Check out the 850 map at 216. All of the CONUS except FL and CA cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I can't get over the extent of the Arctic outbreak that the GFS keeps pushing south mid-month... 1063MB HP originating in the Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 To me the 0Z Euro is less about the actual PV majically dropping south into the Carolinas and more about it's interaction with the highlited piece of energy. I don't have the intermediate hours of the Euro, but I suspect it phases with this potent vort coming over top of the ridge and that is what aids the PV to get drug south and/or recenter itsself somewhere in the MA. if it doesnt drop south like shown you don't get a bomb that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I can't get over the extent of the Arctic outbreak that the GFS keeps pushing south mid-month... 1063MB HP originating in the Yukon. Unreal Arctic outbreak modeled. How bout -14 to -18 850 temps into NOVA for the end of next week. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Unreal Arctic outbreak modeled. How bout -14 to -18 850 temps into NOVA for the end of next week. Just brutal. Highs in the low 30's is not brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 216 1008mb off the nc coast nice va hit That's more than a va hit But alas...GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's more than a va hit But alas...GFS.. the signal for mid month is decent.. gfs or not it's way the heck out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1008! Ive seen high pressures that were 1008 Not every "nice hit" is an epic blizzard, Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's more than a va hit But alas...GFS.. Wes was optimisic.. so we have good news on that front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's more than a va hit But alas...GFS.. STRONGLY AGREE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Highs in the low 30's is not brutal More like mid 20's for highs and single digits for lows for us out here. I thought you were leaving the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 More like mid 20's for highs and single digits for lows for us out here. I thought you were leaving the thread? Surface isn't that cold....I'm leaving the storm threat part of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 feb 9-10 similar 500 track but came into u.s. west of this lobe on the euro. in my winter thoughts i was thinking we might get something like the feb 9-10 storm last yr this yr but it's still not believable i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 More like mid 20's for highs and single digits for lows for us out here. I thought you were leaving the thread? 12Z GFS has highs of 25 on Saturday and 33 on Sunday for Martinsburg. But, with NW winds 20-30 mph, wind chills would be in the single digits during the day and below zero at night. Plenty chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Highs in the low 30's is not brutal can it get any more negative from the Leesburg crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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