eyewall Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 My final call: In looking at my forecast the main point of error I had primarily had to do with underestimating the amount of snow that fell in the western piedmont and in the lee of the mountains on Christmas day/evening. This primarily had to do with a northern stream wave ahead of the main coastal storm. This is one thing the NAM hinted on in the short term but I admit in not giving it enough attention as my focus became primarily with the coastal low. It is something to learn from for the next time. In looking at just the 26th my forecast thinking held up reasonably well overall in looking at the maps. This is more evidence that my thinking was based way too heavily on the coastal low only. I had the right idea but I did undercut amounts ENE of Raleigh and in the coastal plain even though I did specify locally higher amounts (they were a little more than locally higher there). I probably should have updated one more time once it was clear in real-time the storm was in fact deepening rapidly and the RUC was showing a clear deformation banding signature. Temps also crashed very quickly on the 26th all the way to the coast. It was a delayed start but once they did fall it happened more rapidly than I thought. I honestly think late on the evening of the 25th I let weenie panic trump what the science was telling me and I have to remember that in events down the road. So in closing to sum things up I underestimated the initial wave and I was too cautious on coastal plain amounts with the coastal. My thinking on the coastal was sound with the exception of a few caveats. If I had to grade my forecast on this one it would be a C+. Not bad but I can certainly do better. Either way I think I want to do my own case study on this and learn what I can from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Thanks to a huge disparity between the time that warning criteria was reached in the mountains (around 1 pm on Christmas) and our southeast Piedmont zones (around 5 AM on the 26th), we ended up with a respectable (but still sub-GPRA) average lead time of 13 hours. Not too bad I guess considering the trickiness of this system 24 hours out. The POD was 1.0 and the FAR was 0.154. We don't have a snowfall map completed yet, but I'll post one as soon as it's ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The second map (the one showing the snow that fell on Christmas Day is not entirely acurate) I live in southern Cleveland County and we had a little over an inch by midnight on Christmas Day and southwestern Cleveland County had around 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I don't have near enough knowledge to post a forecast but I did post this four days before the event. Turned out pretty good. "OK I'm officially excited now. Looks like one of those rare statewide storms that should make almost everyone in NC happy." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I made this crappy map the night of Christmas Eve. I didn't anticipate as much snow over the western foothills/leeside mountains as actually fell. In addition, I did not foresee the screwzone around Charlotte. I was also too high in the southern Piedmont which missed out on most of the moisture during the initial blow. However, these areas racked up good totals from the Coastal while the northern/western Piedmont and foothills failed to get much. I also was too low on the mountains, which got helped out a lot by the northwest flow event which followed the initial blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You were just right on my area of the Western Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I think u did a good job ewall. It was hard to anticipate what was going to happen for this storm. Below was my call at 9am christmas morning. I think it was overall pretty good, just a little late for a final call. But this storm didn't appear likely until Christmas eve afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I will add this, that just about everyones call maps here on amwx were head and shoulders above the local media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yes they were and that's why I'm here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Did GSP publish a post mordem snow depth map for this storm? I've seen them do that on some previous winter storms for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Here was my final forecast map as compared to the Raleigh snowfall map... Underestimated amounts in the NC mountains and some portion of the coastal plain in NC, but feel pretty good about my map otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Thanks to a huge disparity between the time that warning criteria was reached in the mountains (around 1 pm on Christmas) and our southeast Piedmont zones (around 5 AM on the 26th), we ended up with a respectable (but still sub-GPRA) average lead time of 13 hours. Not too bad I guess considering the trickiness of this system 24 hours out. The POD was 1.0 and the FAR was 0.154. We don't have a snowfall map completed yet, but I'll post one as soon as it's ready. Yea you guys at GSP did a great job updating things as they were happening (with some really nice AFD's). It was really impossible given what the modeling was showing only 24 hours prior to the event to issue Winter Storm Watches for most of the CWA. Despite the lower lead time, the Probability of Detection and False Alarm Rate look pretty darn good. Looking forward to seeing the final snowfall map for the event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Did GSP publish a post mordem snow depth map for this storm? I've seen them do that on some previous winter storms for the area. yikes! I didn't see isohume's post above sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Here was my final forecast map as compared to the Raleigh snowfall map... Underestimated amounts in the NC mountains and some portion of the coastal plain in NC, but feel pretty good about my map otherwise. Nice job overall! You captured western areas and the first wave well! Thank you everyone for your comments so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I get my weather from here, great job on the call maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Nice job overall! You captured western areas and the first wave well! Thank you everyone for your comments so far. Thanks... your map was also pretty nice for the area you were primarily forecasting for in the sandhills. Honestly, the last map I made was early on Christmas day when It was becoming obvious that the first batch of precip was going to nail the WNC mountains per the RUC and last runs of the NAM and GFS. So really I have to hand it to the short term models handling of the precipitation... as it was pretty spot on, which doesn't happen very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 seems like most of the maps that were posted were pretty darn good! i was skeptical of some of the amounts for mby, but in the end it verified great job to all hopefully there will be a need for snowfall maps again in the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Here was my final forecast map as compared to the Raleigh snowfall map... Underestimated amounts in the NC mountains and some portion of the coastal plain in NC, but feel pretty good about my map otherwise. pretty much spot on especially realizing the lack of accumulating snow here on the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Here was my final forecast map as compared to the Raleigh snowfall map... Underestimated amounts in the NC mountains and some portion of the coastal plain in NC, but feel pretty good about my map otherwise. You did an excellent job, probably the best i've seen on any board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Below was my call at 9am christmas morning. I think it was overall pretty good, just a little late for a final call. But this storm didn't appear likely until Christmas eve afternoon/evening. This was pretty much spot on for my area...(West Central GA)....Nice job on a difficult storm! It had me sayin...It will...It won't...It will...It won't....right up to the last minute....Which was around 5:30 p.m. Christmas day. I'm right on your grey line...we got about an inch. Here's to more potential storms in 2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Here's the latest GSP storm total map for the event, the final storm total forecast...and the NW flow event that followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Thanks for posting.. Do you have a direct link for the 25-27 Heavy snow fall map? Thanks Here's the latest GSP storm total map for the event, the final storm total forecast...and the NW flow event that followed. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Here's the latest GSP storm total map for the event, the final storm total forecast...and the NW flow event that followed. That would be exactly correct for my location. I love showing up on a snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Thanks for posting.. Do you have a direct link for the 25-27 Heavy snow fall map? Thanks They should be up on our website later on...but I'm not exactly sure when. You can dl'd and feel free to pass around these images tho. Does it make a difference where the images are located? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nope just have a hard time finding them on GSP website. They should be up on our website later on...but I'm not exactly sure when. You can dl'd and feel free to pass around these images tho. Does it make a difference where the images are located? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nope just have a hard time finding them on GSP website. They'll be located at the top of the home page under the "Top News of the Day" section once our webmaster updates the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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