burgertime Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well 18z says no dice on the overrunning event. This might be the battle of the Euro and GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well 18z says no dice on the overrunning event. This might be the battle of the Euro and GFS again. Canadian @ 12z today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I hope we can get some decent rain around here. We really need some of this salt washed off the roads. My cars are absolutely nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 18z is still interesting at around 240..it looks a lot like the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I was thinking the same thing! What in the heck does all this mean???? Thanks for the transparency, Cold Rain..... Typhoon Tip had a great write up...and I knew it meant "interesting times ahead"....and "not so fast on the torch"....I got that much.....I didn't want to ask anyone what he said in technical terms cause I knew I'd get laughed outta here BTW.....when ya gonna get that new threat thread a goin....I'm rested and hankering for another model storm to chase. John is a really smart guy, and he's always interesting to read, although difficult to follow at times. He knows his stuff, though. I don't ever ask questions in his threads because I don't have enough of a vocabulary! Anyway, I'll start us up a thread if we can start to see some agreement on a storm potential within 5-7 days, AND I see a big blue H in the midwest somewhere. If someone hasn't beat me to the punch by then, I'll thread it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah burger I notices that very nice low around 192 all the way through 240 if I am not mistaking that would be iin the time frame Allan was refering to earlier also hour 192 of the Euro also shows a low in southern TX not sure if these are the same Lows but nice to see both present in that time frame on both models looks like the GFS maybe on to something. Hopefully the Euro will be onto the same thing on its 0z run later tonight and the 0z GFS later tonight any Mets please chime in and make corrections if need. But in my opinion hour 228-240 looks alot like the Christmas Storm!! 18z is still interesting at around 240..it looks a lot like the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Just got back from south Florida...it's 60 out and feels freezing! From Macon to Atlanta there was steady light to moderate rain this afternoon with things tapering off as I got north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The rain here is about over according to radar. Got 1 1/2 inches...not a bad days work at all! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 In case anyone hasn't seen Raleigh's latest discussion, check it out: http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/mild-new-year-s-day-but-colder-weather-to-return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Light rain now falling in Cary. Radar looks good for a nice rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I was just in Shelby, Robert busted hard. It's raining like crazy there. you need to visit more often! Loved the rain today, I'm not sure how much yet, but it definitely poured for a couple of hours, and was nice and steady several more hours. By far the best precip event here in a long time. I justed added up my rain totals for last year and came up with 52.75". I guess me Shelby,NC rain diverter was working. Sorry Robert. Thats only 20" more than here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 In case anyone hasn't seen Raleigh's latest discussion, check it out: http://www.examiner....ather-to-return Love it and it makes perfect sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I hope we can get some decent rain around here. We really need some of this salt washed off the roads. My cars are absolutely nasty! Yup! Took my car out of the garage and parked it outside so the rain could clean it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yup! Took my car out of the garage and parked it outside so the rain could clean it off. That's a good idea JQ...I need to do the same thing. I went on a bike ride today and the road grime got up in my chain. After tomorrow's ride I'm going to have to clean it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I got .35". I thought for sure there was more, but maybe there was in town, but not my house apparently. The totals on precip analysis pages aren't ready yet, but for FFC and GSP its over, so I combined the images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Dead on 0.8" here according to my gauge, not a bad start for the new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The majority of the 18z GFS ensemble members are signaling a snowstorm for the SE between 174 and 192hrs. This will probably be our best shot of the year for another widespread southern snowstorm. We just have to hope the southern wave ejects at the right time as to not get squashed to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The majority of the 18z GFS ensemble members are signaling a snowstorm for the SE between 174 and 192hrs. This will probably be our best shot of the year for another widespread southern snowstorm. We just have to hope the southern wave ejects at the right time as to not get squashed to our south. Just looked at those....They do seem very interesting.....What do the P and N mean at the bottom of the frame? Such as P005 and N005 etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Canadian @ 12z today: I saw that earlier and it's hinting at the over-running potential later this week. Think it will be monitored closely over the next few days by our METS on here. i believe Robert eluded to the fact the other day that these little shots of energy ejecting from the southwest will be hard to model until they start happening. And yes the BIG TEN officials are terrible, maybe worse than the ACC IMHO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Just looked at those....They do seem very interesting.....What do the P and N mean at the bottom of the frame? Such as P005 and N005 etc... I'm not sure but I hope ol N002 is the man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Anderson SC 0.60 today.. I got .35". I thought for sure there was more, but maybe there was in town, but not my house apparently. The totals on precip analysis pages aren't ready yet, but for FFC and GSP its over, so I combined the images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 0.17" for the day, better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Ended up with a soaking of 1.45" here in Dahlonega. Very nice start to the new year. Look forward to the weather in the up coming weeks as the models look very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Like Robert said someone further south needs to start the next storm thread ha we need to bring that heavy snow to the people who keep getting screwed. (no offense Cold Rain you brung an awesome snow to many except Me, Burger, and Robert lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 nice wet start to the year! 1.15" as a side note, it is really foggy out this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Hello 00z GFS @ 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00z GFS would be great for the Thurs. event t if we could get it to come in about 6 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00z GFS would be great for the Thurs. event t if we could get it to come in about 6 hours earlier. I just saw this. Its 5h is looking very similar now to GGEM and ECMWF so there's probably going to be a quick hitting overrunning or maybe a prefrontal event late Wed. night overnight. The place to watch for heavy wet snow will be the mountains of Tenn and NC and maybe around the 40 corridor in NC overnight. Its quite a bit of qpf, but the trend may be for this to become stronger. If it does, then southerly flow will be even stronger and the system would most likely certainly be pure rain, but as it stands now its close to wet snow , atleast for some areas its close enough to watch. The high is in a bad spot, but so long as the warm advection isn't too strong, I've seen snow even here in Shelby with pretty strong southwest winds once, and got a nice fluffy 4" snow from it, with temps climbing through the event. Not saying this will be snow here for sure, as I'm sure it will be alittle too warm, but the Euro was just cold enough at 12Z. Its a delicate balance btwn just enough warm advection for precip, and not too much or else its rain. At 120 hours, the next player is sitting off the southenr Calif. coast, just itching to be the next Gulf low for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I just saw this. Its 5h is looking very similar now to GGEM and ECMWF so there's probably going to be a quick hitting overrunning or maybe a prefrontal event late Wed. night overnight. The place to watch for heavy wet snow will be the mountains of Tenn and NC and maybe around the 40 corridor in NC overnight. Its quite a bit of qpf, but the trend may be for this to become stronger. If it does, then southerly flow will be even stronger and the system would most likely certainly be pure rain, but as it stands now its close to wet snow , atleast for some areas its close enough to watch. The high is in a bad spot, but so long as the warm advection isn't too strong, I've seen snow even here in Shelby with pretty strong southwest winds once, and got a nice fluffy 4" snow from it, with temps climbing through the event. Not saying this will be snow here for sure, as I'm sure it will be alittle too warm, but the Euro was just cold enough at 12Z. Its a delicate balance btwn just enough warm advection for precip, and not too much or else its rain. At 120 hours, the next player is sitting off the southenr Calif. coast, just itching to be the next Gulf low for us. Yea the usual winners with the mid week event...go figure..but maybe we can get lucky on it. At 165 it looks like it's trying to setup for something good, maybe the ol GFS can come through for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take the Euro's temperature profile and the 0z GFS qpf. It's close for the northern TN Valley. As Foothills stated, if this gets stronger then there will be more southerly flow and rain. However, if this jogs south slightly then this could get more interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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