burgertime Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 How about if we just compromise and root so that it's not to far east and not to far west, thus focus everything central NC, that should make everyone happy :-) +1 except let CLT in on the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 As posted in a thread on the main discussion page: 12Z Euro ensembles coming in- large spreads develop rather soon and the Op is a huge outlier even by days 4-5, we can probably throw this run in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 and western south carolina we only got 3.5 inches out of this last storm.. +1 except let CLT in on the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like all that wishcasting for it go west paid off since most of those storms were OTS in the mid range Actually everyone did fairly well with the storm last weekend. With the exception being the immediate coast and your never budging bermuda snow triangle. Take the track of the last storm up CLT's totals by 3-6 inches and we would have a winner!! It does suck being this far east and hearing cries from guys out west about wanting a west trend. Most seasons the guys in the foothills and mountains destroy us on snow totals. The last few years have been terrible for you guys though. Got to 54 today and it really did feel like a heatwave! tomorrow is gonna be 64 and I am so looking forward to sitting outside all day in a treestand soaking it up on the last day of deer season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 As posted in a thread on the main discussion page: 12Z Euro ensembles coming in- large spreads develop rather soon and the Op is a huge outlier even by days 4-5, we can probably throw this run in the trash. yea, that was my first inclination for this run. it was a huge change from 00z. i think the best statement is that there is a lot of potential from Thur-Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 you are right Hicory and nice model btw thanks for doing that... yea, that was my first inclination for this run. it was a huge change from 00z. i think the best statement is that there is a lot of potential from Thur-Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 DT mentions NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 DT mentions NC... LOL on the IMBY comments this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I know people asking that just unnerve me they think just because a storm is coming you can tell them 10 days out how much just ridiculous to me!! LOL on the IMBY comments this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 LOL on the IMBY comments this far out. One of those is mine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The ECMWF ensemble mean shows the southwest low haning back longer than the op ECMWF shows and it seems this run of the op ECMWF is a bit of an outlier. I have my doubts that it comes out that early. It is possible though. As I mentioned earlier, I see a much bigger threat in the 1/10-1/14 time frame. The day 10 ECMWF Ensemble 500mb Anomalies are downright yummy. Strong 50/50 (Newfoundlow signature), very strong -AO, -NAO, trough in the 4 corners region that should slide east, abundant arctic air being drivent by very strong high pressure in west-central Canada, (1038mb on a day 10 ensemble product is extremely impressive). At least for the southeast, this is a classic snowstorm signal for the next day or two after that which would be 1/11-1/12. Followed by very cold arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Great point!! The ECMWF ensemble mean shows the southwest low haning back longer than the op ECMWF shows and it seems this run of the op ECMWF is a bit of an outlier. I have my doubts that it comes out that early. It is possible though. As I mentioned earlier, I see a much bigger threat in the 1/10-1/14 time frame. The day 10 ECMWF Ensemble 500mb Anomalies are downright yummy. Strong 50/50 (Newfoundlow signature), very strong -AO, -NAO, trough in the 4 corners region that should slide east, abundant arctic air being drivent by very strong high pressure in west-central Canada, (1038mb on a day 10 ensemble product is extremely impressive). At least for the southeast, this is a classic snowstorm signal for the next day or two after that which would be 1/11-1/12. Followed by very cold arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 One of those is mine... Bostopm gets all the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm new to the forum....last week I found out who Dr. No is but who is DT? DT mentions NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 DT used to blog here is website is wxrisk.com I'm new to the forum....last week I found out who Dr. No is but who is DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Bostopm gets all the snow! Atylsnta to Bnooe to Bostopm !!11!11!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 and welcome to the forum btw I'm new to the forum....last week I found out who Dr. No is but who is DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Atylsnta to Bnooe to Bostopm !!11!11!1 LOL, Sorry for the one line post but that was funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Atylsnta to Bnooe to Bostopm !!11!11!1 It's Bonee you fookin slophead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 It's Bonee you fookin slophead. I; m leav i ng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Great point!! 29 posts in one day, calm down young one....try to read more and post less. "Great point" doesn't add anything to the disco...trust me, when "storm mode" is in effect, the mods will be more unforgiving than last time. I had 10 posts total last year's winter, just something to keep in mind.I hate scrolling through pages of posts with no substance to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I know it's the 18z GFS but at 276 it's a great setup...and falls pretty much in line with what Allan stated above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I know it's the 18z GFS but at 276 it's a great setup...and falls pretty much in line with what Allan stated above. Ugh so do we lie to ourselves and say we arent going to pay attention to each and every model run until its gets within 4-5 days or do we go ahead and start losing sleep now....... I was born here and have lived here my entire life and I know its hard to get a couple of inches of snow a year much less the 30" I have had since Jan 1 2010 and I cant imagine how I can expect anymore after the 14" I had this past Dec I mean I dont wanna be greedy. HoweverI look at what happened to DC last year and I think to myself whats if that 1 in every 50/100 year winter is this year, it would be kinda ironic and fitting given the overall pattern leading into the winter and the general feeling that this winter would pale in comparision to last.....I already have as much snow in Dec as I had in all of the winter last year and its not even Jan yet. If we get hammered a few more times this year I will be really happy and really sad...happy cause I got to see the snowiest year here ever and sad cause I know I will prolly never live long enough to see it beaten..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, I know I'm far south of most of you, but this is winter, and I'm getting worried mine is over (usually Jan/Feb are my good months). Models keep the 850 well north of us (down here in north Fla) for the foreseeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 How about if we just compromise and root so that it's not to far east and not to far west, thus focus everything central NC, that should make everyone happy :-) +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It's getting about time for Cold Rain to guarantee us another storm. Not quite ready to pull the trigger yet, though. For now, I'll just say, Happy New Year, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Ugh so do we lie to ourselves and say we arent going to pay attention to each and every model run until its gets within 4-5 days or do we go ahead and start losing sleep now....... I was born here and have lived here my entire life and I know its hard to get a couple of inches of snow a year much less the 30" I have had since Jan 1 2010 and I cant imagine how I can expect anymore after the 14" I had this past Dec I mean I dont wanna be greedy. HoweverI look at what happened to DC last year and I think to myself whats if that 1 in every 50/100 year winter is this year, it would be kinda ironic and fitting given the overall pattern leading into the winter and the general feeling that this winter would pale in comparision to last.....I already have as much snow in Dec as I had in all of the winter last year and its not even Jan yet. If we get hammered a few more times this year I will be really happy and really sad...happy cause I got to see the snowiest year here ever and sad cause I know I will prolly never live long enough to see it beaten..... Lol not loosing sleep but I do think we are within the range to start casually looking at the runs and seeing what they're hinting at...key word here is hinting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Lol not loosing sleep but I do think we are within the range to start casually looking at the runs and seeing what they're hinting at...key word here is hinting! I totally agree. The pattern is definitely looking to become favorable again. That's all we can ask 7 days + out...a decent looking pattern. Maybe the ingredients will come together again. Maybe they won't. But first things first -- setting the table. A retrograding block, a potentially active STJ, and a good climo period is definitely a good foundation. We may or may not get a snowstorm, but I think the odds (as far as SE snow is concerned) are going to be increasing over the next 7-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The 0z gfs really holds the energy off the California coast and doesn't bring it onshore until around hr 180. Between the latest runs of the gfs and euro we have all kinds of scenarios. BTW, Happy New Year SE crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Years to all the SE Crew time to wipe the snow boards clean for this year is our year here in the south I look forward to blogging with everyone on here throghout this year!! BTW very nice Low on GFS hour 216-228 maybe that will be the first of many major snowstorms for us here in the South East this Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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