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January 2011


BullCityWx

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Looks like all that wishcasting for it go west paid off since most of those storms were OTS in the mid range rolleyes.gif

Actually everyone did fairly well with the storm last weekend. With the exception being the immediate coast and your never budging bermuda snow triangle. Take the track of the last storm up CLT's totals by 3-6 inches and we would have a winner!!

It does suck being this far east and hearing cries from guys out west about wanting a west trend. Most seasons the guys in the foothills and mountains destroy us on snow totals. The last few years have been terrible for you guys though.

Got to 54 today and it really did feel like a heatwave! tomorrow is gonna be 64 and I am so looking forward to sitting outside all day in a treestand soaking it up on the last day of deer season.

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As posted in a thread on the main discussion page:

12Z Euro ensembles coming in- large spreads develop rather soon and the Op is a huge outlier even by days 4-5, we can probably throw this run in the trash.

yea, that was my first inclination for this run. it was a huge change from 00z. i think the best statement is that there is a lot of potential from Thur-Saturday.

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The ECMWF ensemble mean shows the southwest low haning back longer than the op ECMWF shows and it seems this run of the op ECMWF is a bit of an outlier. I have my doubts that it comes out that early. It is possible though.

As I mentioned earlier, I see a much bigger threat in the 1/10-1/14 time frame.

The day 10 ECMWF Ensemble 500mb Anomalies are downright yummy. Strong 50/50 (Newfoundlow signature), very strong -AO, -NAO, trough in the 4 corners region that should slide east, abundant arctic air being drivent by very strong high pressure in west-central Canada, (1038mb on a day 10 ensemble product is extremely impressive). At least for the southeast, this is a classic snowstorm signal for the next day or two after that which would be 1/11-1/12. Followed by very cold arctic air.

post-25-0-81835300-1293829619.gif

post-25-0-54720300-1293829700.gif

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Great point!!

The ECMWF ensemble mean shows the southwest low haning back longer than the op ECMWF shows and it seems this run of the op ECMWF is a bit of an outlier. I have my doubts that it comes out that early. It is possible though.

As I mentioned earlier, I see a much bigger threat in the 1/10-1/14 time frame.

The day 10 ECMWF Ensemble 500mb Anomalies are downright yummy. Strong 50/50 (Newfoundlow signature), very strong -AO, -NAO, trough in the 4 corners region that should slide east, abundant arctic air being drivent by very strong high pressure in west-central Canada, (1038mb on a day 10 ensemble product is extremely impressive). At least for the southeast, this is a classic snowstorm signal for the next day or two after that which would be 1/11-1/12. Followed by very cold arctic air.

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Great point!!

29 posts in one day, calm down young one....try to read more and post less. "Great point" doesn't add anything to the disco...trust me, when "storm mode" is in effect, the mods will be more unforgiving than last time. I had 10 posts total last year's winter, just something to keep in mind.I hate scrolling through pages of posts with no substance to them.:arrowhead:

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I know it's the 18z GFS but at 276 it's a great setup...and falls pretty much in line with what Allan stated above.

Ugh so do we lie to ourselves and say we arent going to pay attention to each and every model run until its gets within 4-5 days or do we go ahead and start losing sleep now.......:arrowhead:

I was born here and have lived here my entire life and I know its hard to get a couple of inches of snow a year much less the 30" I have had since Jan 1 2010 and I cant imagine how I can expect anymore after the 14" I had this past Dec I mean I dont wanna be greedy. HoweverI look at what happened to DC last year and I think to myself whats if that 1 in every 50/100 year winter is this year, it would be kinda ironic and fitting given the overall pattern leading into the winter and the general feeling that this winter would pale in comparision to last.....I already have as much snow in Dec as I had in all of the winter last year and its not even Jan yet. If we get hammered a few more times this year I will be really happy and really sad...happy cause I got to see the snowiest year here ever and sad cause I know I will prolly never live long enough to see it beaten.....

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Ugh so do we lie to ourselves and say we arent going to pay attention to each and every model run until its gets within 4-5 days or do we go ahead and start losing sleep now.......:arrowhead:

I was born here and have lived here my entire life and I know its hard to get a couple of inches of snow a year much less the 30" I have had since Jan 1 2010 and I cant imagine how I can expect anymore after the 14" I had this past Dec I mean I dont wanna be greedy. HoweverI look at what happened to DC last year and I think to myself whats if that 1 in every 50/100 year winter is this year, it would be kinda ironic and fitting given the overall pattern leading into the winter and the general feeling that this winter would pale in comparision to last.....I already have as much snow in Dec as I had in all of the winter last year and its not even Jan yet. If we get hammered a few more times this year I will be really happy and really sad...happy cause I got to see the snowiest year here ever and sad cause I know I will prolly never live long enough to see it beaten.....

Lol not loosing sleep but I do think we are within the range to start casually looking at the runs and seeing what they're hinting at...key word here is hinting!

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Lol not loosing sleep but I do think we are within the range to start casually looking at the runs and seeing what they're hinting at...key word here is hinting!

I totally agree. The pattern is definitely looking to become favorable again. That's all we can ask 7 days + out...a decent looking pattern. Maybe the ingredients will come together again. Maybe they won't. But first things first -- setting the table. A retrograding block, a potentially active STJ, and a good climo period is definitely a good foundation. We may or may not get a snowstorm, but I think the odds (as far as SE snow is concerned) are going to be increasing over the next 7-14 days.

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Happy New Years to all the SE Crew time to wipe the snow boards clean for this year is our year here in the south I look forward to blogging with everyone on here throghout this year!!

BTW very nice Low on GFS hour 216-228 maybe that will be the first of many major snowstorms for us here in the South East this Year!

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