RaleighWx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 A lot of spread in the Euro ensembles after 168 hours, the Op is a lot deeper than the mean along about the time it has the storm. So not too interested yet. Ha, when is there not after 168! Obviously this far away even if it were showing up on all models you take it as a interest but nothing more than that. Synoptically I dont think it is the most ideal pattern for a southern snowstorm, or at least a significant one in the day 8-10 range with the 500mb low so deep and over Maine. I would like to see it move east a bit, that would allow even more cold air to penetrate into the south and also give a southern stream system more room to amplify. That may happen in the 1/11-1/14 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Just a quick note wishing everyone a happy and snowy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Ha, when is there not after 168! Obviously this far away even if it were showing up on all models you take it as a interest but nothing more than that. Synoptically I dont think it is the most ideal pattern for a southern snowstorm, or at least a significant one in the day 8-10 range with the 500mb low so deep and over Maine. I would like to see it move east a bit, that would allow even more cold air to penetrate into the south and also give a southern stream system more room to amplify. That may happen in the 1/11-1/14 time frame. That is the one to watch for sure!! I'll pull the trigger on that thread gladly. That would be "Peach's Blizzard"...one more before I'm officially 'over the hill'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Its amazing to the see the ECMWF have a 996mb already in the Florida panhandle and deepen to 984 by the time its in Charleston. There probably hasn't been a nontropical storm do that since 1993. Obviously too far out to get excited yet, but I don't remember this model ever doing anything like that. Overall the pattern is good with a strong central /north Canada block, some western split flow and a displaced storm track to the south. So most of the ingredients are there to make a memorable storm, but everything has to be mixed properly, which the models won't handle yet and placement could be off several hundred miles. Still the signs point to stormy and cold coming up for the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgar2121 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i would really, REALLY appreciate it if we could hold off until later on the 9th, or even until the 10th, because if I have to cancel our trip next week (I am a business owner who HAS to be here when there is bad weather), I am sure my wife will kill me....or at least wound me profoundly. Besides, I really want to see Mickey Mouse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Some rather amazing similarities with the forecast quandary for the system around 8th and what we had with the Christmas system. Euro phases at just the right time to produce a biggie for the Carolinas. I would not bet my house on the timing of all of that working out, but I do think it is within the realm if possibilities, and it will be interesting to watch. I talked about it a bit in today's discussion on the blog below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Im excited that Cheeze is actually talking about this storm already. Im ready to track something again. Thanks to the Mets for all of the input. Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 At least we have some potential around January 9th through middle of the month. The 1/9 storm has GFS ensemble mean support at the moment. Even the CMC has a storm around 240 hours in the gulf. Only 168 hours to go before we can get excited about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Its amazing to the see the ECMWF have a 996mb already in the Florida panhandle and deepen to 984 by the time its in Charleston. There probably hasn't been a nontropical storm do that since 1993. Obviously too far out to get excited yet, but I don't remember this model ever doing anything like that. Overall the pattern is good with a strong central /north Canada block, some western split flow and a displaced storm track to the south. So most of the ingredients are there to make a memorable storm, but everything has to be mixed properly, which the models won't handle yet and placement could be off several hundred miles. Still the signs point to stormy and cold coming up for the Southeast. I am skeptical of another big storm I mean the chances of back to back major hits here at least seem to go against all the odds. However look at DC last season they had 2 or 3 major blizzard type events in the same year and most folks would have considered what happened to DC to be far beyond what anyone thought would occur in a active year. Maybe this year is NC's year to get smacked by 2-3 major events.....I guess as good as the last system was for us I still long for another 1980 type event, a real honest to goodness knee deep blizzard. I have patiently waited 30 years for a repeat be nice if it finally happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I am skeptical of another big storm I mean the chances of back to back major hits here at least seem to go against all the odds. However look at DC last season they had 2 or 3 major blizzard type events in the same year and most folks would have considered what happened to DC to be far beyond what anyone thought would occur in a active year. Maybe this year is NC's year to get smacked by 2-3 major events.....I guess as good as the last system was for us I still long for another 1980 type event, a real honest to goodness knee deep blizzard. I have patiently waited 30 years for a repeat be nice if it finally happened lol. We would certainly be hard pressed to find a year with more than one major hit but I suppose anything is possible. I wouldn't mind a few more nickle and dime events before the winter is out though realistically speaking. If this ends up being another larger event I would be amazed. Of course we are 200+ hours away so I am not going run to run this far away just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Very interesting pattern setting up it seems, with another huge block popping over Greenland and retrograding west over N Canada. This does look quite similar to the Christmas storm... lack of CAD but with jets phase just at the last minute to put down a lot of snow for upstate SC/most of NC. Another height crash draws in the mid level cold (850 zero line falls from KY/OH border to GA coast in 6 hours!)... let hope this time the surface temps chill down faster if this comes to pass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I agree w/ others in that this is to far away to get excited yet but it has definitely peaked my interest. Anytime the euro is showing a sub 1000 low coming across the Fl. panhandle it grabs my attention. Like Allen said, temps could be an issue w/out the perfect phase but there's plenty of time to watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The euro would fit the weekend rule. Would start in NC friday night and if it goes up the coast, would be a saturday/sunday storm for the mid-atlantic and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Well I'm pulling hard for next weekend's storm. Maybe this go around CLT will get out of the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I know we are in a boring period but fwiw I updated my forecast and discussion: http://www.sandhillswx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Great disco folks. Well, 2011 starts tomorrow so we will be taking about two different years if we get another big storm. We would certainly be hard pressed to find a year with more than one major hit but I suppose anything is possible. I wouldn't mind a few more nickle and dime events before the winter is out though realistically speaking. If this ends up being another larger event I would be amazed. Of course we are 200+ hours away so I am not going run to run this far away just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I know I am new to this and am a weenie but if I am not mistaking GFS 4 days ago showed a huge snowstorm shooting up the coast from Virginia northward saw that on weatheradvance.com could it be the GFS sniffed out this storm first this time? And from what I saw from the last storm the GFS usally has a problem phasing a split flow storm to me the Euro does a much better job at handling a split flow storm in my opinion any input here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like "squash" central on the 12z GFS. Wow, does it look cold. The ejecting shortwave in the southwest looks to get squeezed heavily by 240 - of course it is 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I have updated my blog this morning with my thoughts for the first 10 days of January... I'm thinking cold... and maybe snowy across the southeast? http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like the GFS is out to lunch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like the GFS is out to lunch!! GFS = useless after 192 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmH56ypfFeA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Wow, 988MB low off the SC coast on the Euro going up to 976MB off the NC coast. Hopefully the temp details will work out for all of us if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah that run of the Euro surly peaked my interest and here we go again another 10 days of model watching wahooo!! Wow, 988MB low off the SC coast on the Euro going up to 976MB off the NC coast. Hopefully the temp details will work out for all of us if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I have updated my blog this morning with my thoughts for the first 10 days of January... I'm thinking cold... and maybe snowy across the southeast? nice write up! i sure hope the pattern does reload, as its a great one for the se so far it would be awesome to have jan end up normal or colder than normal and not the warm/dry that a lot of us thought would happen if we can get it cold here again and another storm or two, this winter could rank up there like last year. having two great winters back to back after the long stretch of bad ones is hard to believe. so i am optimistic for a return, but am still being cautious till i see the pattern actually set itselfs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 GFS = useless after 192 Beat me to it! Yes, I expect if the Euro does keep this up, the GFS will follow suit when it's time...so over the next few runs I won't be expecting to see the same at all, and most should feel the same way. It would be interesting if the Euro keeps up run to run consistency like last the last storm, that will light these boards up! I do see the concern about temps but the 00z run did trend colder...taken verbatim I-95 west in NC cashes in...Columbia, SC and north does the same. Also FoothillsNC is right, the 00z spits out a good one....12z is at 992 off cape hatteras, 00z is deeper at 976...but I sure do remember what the Euro showed for the last time, so I can't get too excited. Also temps were a lot colder on day 5 for the Christmas storm, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 the GFS at this time range is about as accurate as my picks for the lotto last wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 If they Euro continues to hold to its past solutions, we may be in a similar pattern w/ the models from last week IMO. The GFS appears to be settling in on a pattern that will be a good on for the SE if it holds. The map looks like an old school map from when I was younger w/ bitter cold settling into the norther plains. Who would have thought that TN folks would have to worry about winter storms passing to their south during a La Nina? At this point the - NAO and - AO trumps the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 by the way, its actually 964 off HAT if you use Raleigh's site, more high res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah I am ready to see this board light up again I learned alot from the last storm that hit and you are right the GFS will come around in due time it seems it is always last to fall into line!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 by the way, its actually 964 off HAT if you use Raleigh's site, more high res I"m pretty confident in saying that if a 964 low is sitting anywhere near HAT most of us in WNC won't have to worry too much about cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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