MillzPirate Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Since when does GA have a higher pop than NC? And its prob that way bc NC has much more winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 out to 36 and north GA is in the sweet spot if temps cooperate. That .5 is right over Rosie and Dawsons house. LOL.. where is he at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Probably because NC tends to get a good bit more snow on average than GA. Raleigh and Charlotte both average more than twice what ATL gets, the mountains get much more (and even coastal areas like Greenville average a bit more). It's tough being a snow weenie in GA! GA is just in a snow hole ( in most years). Seems like even though North GA and NC have simiilar temps for the most part on avg, NC gets way more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well Robert I am in upstate SC so I really rely on your information and from the looks of the Nam this run me and you both may get just a little of the white stuff!! Boundary layer is way too warm for us. Nothing but rain anywhere in the Upstate unless you live in the SC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The mountains of ga may have similar temps but the state of nc as a whole is much colder than ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Also the whole state of NC sees snow on a regular basis. Only the northern half of GA and SC can say the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That .5 is right over Rosie and Dawsons house. LOL.. where is he at? Thats what I was wandering, Between you 3 this is pretty big potential being only 24 hrs out, You and the sylva/Jackson County crowd, Chattanooga poster and Rosie/Dawson ought to be loving this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Probably because NC tends to get a good bit more snow on average than GA. Raleigh and Charlotte both average more than twice what ATL gets, the mountains get much more (and even coastal areas like Greenville average a bit more). It's tough being a snow weenie in GA! I have a house for sale here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And Georgia has a higher population than NC, yet for some reason it seems like there are WAY more people from NC on this forum. NC and GA have gone back and forth for the last 10 to 15 years on the tenth position, I honestly haven't looked at the latest census data released, but it doesn't matter I think NC was heavily represented early on from the days at Wright Weather, located in CLT when DT mentioned it, and just being local a lot of Carolina folks flocked to it, but word spread quickly, plus NC is full of snow geese chasing our many phantom snows, LOL. Anyway the latest RUC has the precip coming up to NC /SC border and northern GA would get a nice little snow if the temps support it. I've been so swamped lately I haven't had time to devote to the forum or forecasting lately like I usually do, my aging parents take precedent these days. But with temps borderline aloft, and considering rapid trends, I'd be very suprised if elevations in n. Ga tomorrow eveing don't get a 3" snowfall from this. Not every one, but some areas , the omega is pretty good, and you're going to need it wtih borderline temps. Same goes for SC and lower NC, which may not get into rich, heavy moisture. Temps are going to be the problem, but its close enough that rates could swing it either way. The safest call I'd make right now is that north Georgia will get some accumulating snow tomorrow eveing, even if it means rain further east. Its happened plenty of times. Sorry for O/T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 One thing to note here, that has been mentioned before.........................is the beefing up of the QPF as we get closer to the event. I'd be willing to bet this late weekend/early next week event will be much the same way and trend wetter in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thats what I was wandering, Between you 3 this is pretty big potential being only 24 hrs out, You and the sylva/Jackson County crowd, Chattanooga poster and Rosie/Dawson ought to be loving this Im surprised they are not on here. The nam is a good snow for them. Dawson is usually around when prospects look good, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not the right forum but you are wrong Millz. Raleigh gets more snow but is not colder than Atlanta for example. Look at the record and average temps. There pretty similar. Also look at the vegetable growth zones for a broad map of average low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I cant edit my post but I reread your post Millz. Taken as a whole Ga is warmer. Hpwever the northern half is comparable to western/central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 One thing to note here, that has been mentioned before.........................is the beefing up of the QPF as we get closer to the event. I'd be willing to bet this late weekend/early next week event will be much the same way and trend wetter in the coming days. Yes, not giving up on the weekend event...way to much time for favorable trends.....happened b4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Since when does GA have a higher pop than NC? And its prob that way bc NC has much more winter weather http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Census10/HouseAndElectors.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The mountains of ga may have similar temps but the state of nc as a whole is much colder than ga When you compare places like Raleigh, and where I live just west of Atlanta for instance, even though Raleigh is way further north, it's just 1 degree colder on average from Dec-Feb, yet Raleigh seems to get much more snow. It just seems like GA gets a low proportion of snow relative to the amount of cold air we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I agree. The 18Z GFS has trended toward a neutral tilt and separate similar to the ECMWF. Only thing is the temps ahead of it warm some, but they're not handling the cold in place ahead of it, just like what happens in those years back when we had good northeast Confluence and 50/50, so I wouldn't sweat temps in NC yet. I'm gung ho on the possibility for this to streak quickly some precip under the confluence, which usually happened with this setup in the past. It has the look of snow across most of the 40 corridor from Arkansas to NC and for once,a good solid east-west band, which should wring out good snow rates , furthern east than shown. This setup would favor a big Upstate SC and lower NC hit since a less well developed Gulf low lately yielded moisture axis further north, this one may be the one to get southern NC and upstate SC region that has had some serious misses otherwise. Guess we'll see. Also, the long range still looks colder, colder and colder with the longwave in a great spot for Gulf development yet again down the road, on all the models. Could end up being one of the greatest Winters in the Southeast in a long, long time. The euro started trending stronger with the pacific cutoff during the last system right around this range. So it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm starting to lose faith in tomorrow system. From all the models I have just looked at, it appears it will be too warm for the upstate South Carolina snow event to occur. Georgia seems to be looking in bad shape as well. Northwest snowfall for the mountains will be the biggest snow threat from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Raleigh gets atlantic bombs. Atlanta is too far west for that. We got lucky up here in 93 with a gulf bomb. Thats the closest thin atl can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When you compare places like Raleigh, and where I live just west of Atlanta for instance, even though Raleigh is way further north, it's just 1 degree colder on average from Dec-Feb, yet Raleigh seems to get much more snow. It just seems like GA gets a low proportion of snow relative to the amount of cold air we get. Storms tend to be stronger farther up the coast. usually they are just getting started when you are getting snow, Plus if the low takes a good track for them they usually get really good qpf amounts from storms compared to your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This probably doesnt mean diddly squat, but where is that energy in the far sw pacific coming from below our SW low. I dont recall any of the other models showing this. It would have to get absorbed or possibly inject more energy id think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, if you notice how the handling of the 500mb low in new england is significantly different than 12z... much closer to the Euro. The Euro is still more intense with the first wave and thus has more snowfall and a larger portion of NC/SC/GA below freezing since the ridge never really gets pumping since it doesn't have time to recover between the shortwaves. At this point, there is still tons of uncertainty, but considering how the Christmas Storm went, I feel more comfortable to have the Euro on my side. I agree that it appears unlikely the southern stream shortwave and the northern stream shortwave will merge together... however, the southern stream shortwave on the 18z gfs is still dampening out pretty quickly, even though its is more rigorous this run. We have to keep this feature stronger, or otherwise shortly after the wave moves through WAA will start again ahead of the next shortwave. While the southern stream feature has trended towards the Euro, the placement of the low 500mb heights is completely different. In fact the Euro at 12z shows a nice elongated 500mb height minimum near the Great Lakes, while the GFS shows a weak ridge in the polar jet stream in this area... I think this particular feature needs to be watched very closely as it helps keep the southern stream shortwave and the rockies shortwave more separated and prevents the premature amplification of the rockies shortwave... keeping most folks under a colder regime. Now which one is right? Honestly, I haven't got a clue, although the euro depiction of lower heights over the great lakes is rather strange, considering the similar intensity baroclinic low off the northeastern united states. Lets see how the models change at 00z. Great post man! Are you gonna be around for the 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Raleigh gets atlantic bombs. Atlanta is too far west for that. We got lucky up here in 93 with a gulf bomb. Thats the closest thin atl can get. I don't believe Atlanta has even had a 6" snowfall in the last 20 years. Back in the 93 storm, the airport only ended up with 4 inches I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sorry man, I'll be straight up I'm only concerned about CLT...I'm greedy. Doesn't Florida have it's own thread though? Usually thats why I avoid including it...Tony and SF usually cater the further south east regions of SC, GA and FL. Promise it's nothing personal Nothing personal taken! Bottom line - where I live is not "Florida" as most envision it - we have 4 seasons, frozen precip of some sort almost every year, and ... well, this ain't Orlando! Plus, I also have a place in S. Ga. And another I share up the Union Co mountains towards Wolf Pen near Suches. I care about your weather up there, and come visit a lot (hiked AT snow in N. Ga. in mid-November (Woody Gap), and had a wonderful warm and wet Turkey Day 2 weeks later in the same spot); my point was/is - if there is a serious question (and mine was - Why are the models consistently showing the upcoming cold to be shunted east and not south?) then I would hope in this community of so many knowledgeable and hospitable southern folks it would get answered in a serious and scientific way, and not be lost to a round of repeated "I got .004" last night and its 33.5 now" posts. Or - let's start a forum for serious questions and answers - not "What am I going to get?" but rather "Here's what I'm seeing and based on that, why am I going to or not going to get ....?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm liking the trends from the 00z nam... continues to look more and more intense with the precipitation. And considering the precipitation is already starting to rapidly expand currently across Texas and Louisiana, I feel confident that the nam is on the right track precipitation wise as compared to the gfs. I'll be updating my blog later tonight, with perhaps a first call map on the impending wintry threat. Right now i think the jackpot might be the far northern counties of GA along with the SW NC (that area that tends to do the best with southerly upslope flow). I wouldn't really count on any accumulations above 3" but I'll make that final determination after the rest of the models have come in tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Great post man! Are you gonna be around for the 0z runs? Thanks! I'm actually about to head out for now but will update my forecast outlook later tonight (prob sometime after the 00z gfs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Storms tend to be stronger farther up the coast. usually they are just getting started when you are getting snow, Plus if the low takes a good track for them they usually get really good qpf amounts from storms compared to your area. Very good point. I've seen that happen many times. Great for y'all, bad for us. Also, I want to make sure I did not misrepresent my thoughts. Thanks to guys on here like Robert, Allan, Matthew, Lookout and others that looking out for all of us in the southeast and keeping us informed. I too am interested in MBY first, but I do enjoy seeing my fellow SE posters get nailed. Hopefully we all get nailed repeatedly this month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Let me be very, very clear. Robert, Allan, Larry, Matthew East, Lookout.... Everybody who is a met in North Carolina does a heck of a job including Georgia, Tenn, and even Alabama when the system warrants. Larry and Storms Furry are great about covering the coast when it is appropriate, for anyone to say otherwise, is not READING. Dawson and Cheeze keep us GA folks in the loop. Don't change a thing! Thank you. I agree. There's always for improvement but I think everybody has been pretty fair, but all can't be satisfied 100% of the time. One thing to note here, that has been mentioned before.........................is the beefing up of the QPF as we get closer to the event. I'd be willing to bet this late weekend/early next week event will be much the same way and trend wetter in the coming days. True, and I agree. Trends matter more than exact 12z or 00z models. The RUC is showing a close call for the northern areas, and if I were in north Georgia , I'd be excited about tomorrow, night but guarded. It also is a close call in southern NC and upper SC but we won't have elevation to hlep us and the time of day is pretty bad, so I'm not too optimistic here, but for sw NC and esp. N. Ga, I am. It could be 34 and rain though many places. I wish folks wouldn't argue so much about the differences between states and snow totals, populations , etc. Its not a match, but just facts and weather patterns, each is different in every regard, which is what makes each special to their own roots. No need to try to change attitude adjustments, I think mature people see the truth, as this isn't the Midatlantic or Northeast. We're all decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Larry could verify but I think you are right abou atl not having a 6" snow. I live 35 miles nw and have had a few. 88 was great. I think I got around 8" with that one. In 93 my uncle measured 18. I measured 14 but I didnt get outside to measure the first day. We had another good one in 91 or 92 as well. Also, downtown got 6 or 7 in 93 so thats what they get for putting the station down at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Last thoughts before heading out... the 00z nam is showing a major change in the orientation of the 500mb low... with it centered over the great lakes at 78 hours. This is very similar to the Euro depiction at 96 hours. It won't surprise me in the least to see the 00z gfs trend in that direction, which is a positive direction for the late weekend threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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