eyewall Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, if you notice how the handling of the 500mb low in new england is significantly different than 12z... much closer to the Euro. The Euro is still more intense with the first wave and thus has more snowfall and a larger portion of NC/SC/GA below freezing since the ridge never really gets pumping since it doesn't have time to recover between the shortwaves. At this point, there is still tons of uncertainty, but considering how the Christmas Storm went, I feel more comfortable to have the Euro on my side. I agree that it appears unlikely the southern stream shortwave and the northern stream shortwave will merge together... however, the southern stream shortwave on the 18z gfs is still dampening out pretty quickly, even though its is more rigorous this run. We have to keep this feature stronger, or otherwise shortly after the wave moves through WAA will start again ahead of the next shortwave. While the southern stream feature has trended towards the Euro, the placement of the low 500mb heights is completely different. In fact the Euro at 12z shows a nice elongated 500mb height minimum near the Great Lakes, while the GFS shows a weak ridge in the polar jet stream in this area... I think this particular feature needs to be watched very closely as it helps keep the southern stream shortwave and the rockies shortwave more separated and prevents the premature amplification of the rockies shortwave... keeping most folks under a colder regime. Now which one is right? Honestly, I haven't got a clue, although the euro depiction of lower heights over the great lakes is rather strange, considering the similar intensity baroclinic low off the northeastern united states. Lets see how the models change at 00z. Well said! I wonder where your red tag is? Anyway the difference in the western lobe of the PV over the Great Lakes is key to those different solutions. It will be interesting to see how these model runs evolve and to see if we get any type of consensus this time. I am wondering if the models are having trouble resolving the La Nina combined with these anomalous setups. I am not a model expert by any means so I won't begin to speculate on that. Anyway I am currently updating my page. I am really rooting for the Euro's Miller A instead of a Miller B that is for sure. I am trying my best to catch up with what has been happening being I just started a second job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Didn't see anyone post it but the JMA had a big hit at 144 but the temps weren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18 UTC DGEX Snowfall forecast / Hours 82-192 Source: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Uggg sorry didn't realize how bad that pic was...here is the JMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Alright my forecast and discussion are updated on sandhillswx.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 00z Nam is running. Can someone do pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Uggg sorry didn't realize how bad that pic was...here is the JMA: Not surprising with the surface low in MO on that! Wow quite a difference to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This thread should be " January 2011North Carolina/ South Carolina" ---> I ask a serious SE weather question about us just a bit down the road and numerous posts later about how much is or may be or was coming IMBY and with no reply to my model/set-up/dynamics question, I figure I might be in the wrong neighborhood. So - Where do I ask a serious SE question about why or why not something is or may or may not be happening between Savannah, Tifton, Tallahassee and Gainesville? 'Cause I respect the input and observations and knowledge of the folks who post here and are part of this community, I'd really like some direction; regrettably, it's impossible to keep scrolling through pages of how much someone got back when on some given event when you're looking for an answer to a current met question about a geographic area. Should we start a new topic - "Technical Questions for Your Area" or something? I totally agree with renaming the room; the whole discussions that take place in here are applicable to the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 @21 the NAM seems stronger and a little further north 850's are dipping down from around Shelby NC to CAE then going along the coast. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Uggg sorry didn't realize how bad that pic was...here is the JMA: I don't know what 2m temps are, But looks like a CAD sig. I think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This thread should be " January 2011North Carolina/ South Carolina" ---> I ask a serious SE weather question about us just a bit down the road and numerous posts later about how much is or may be or was coming IMBY and with no reply to my model/set-up/dynamics question, I figure I might be in the wrong neighborhood. So - Where do I ask a serious SE question about why or why not something is or may or may not be happening between Savannah, Tifton, Tallahassee and Gainesville? 'Cause I respect the input and observations and knowledge of the folks who post here and are part of this community, I'd really like some direction; regrettably, it's impossible to keep scrolling through pages of how much someone got back when on some given event when you're looking for an answer to a current met question about a geographic area. Should we start a new topic - "Technical Questions for Your Area" or something? Sorry man, I'll be straight up I'm only concerned about CLT...I'm greedy. Doesn't Florida have it's own thread though? Usually thats why I avoid including it...Tony and SF usually cater the further south east regions of SC, GA and FL. Promise it's nothing personal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't know what 2m temps are, But looks like a CAD sig. I think ? Yeah it is showing some CAD with an inverted trough on the NC Coast. This could be hinting at a pseudo Miller B but that would be a heck of a distance for the inland low to be away from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Gonna be close for a hit tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah it is showing some CAD with an inverted trough on the NC Coast. This could be hinting at a pseudo Miller B but that would be a heck of a distance for the inland low to be away from the coastal. If i'm not mistaken JB is thinking a OV track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Gonna be close for a hit tomorrow night. Somebody in NGa. SC SNC could be in for a surprise. I think i'm to far north for this one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does anyone know what the RUC says about tomorrow's activity? I don't believe I saw any references to it in the last few pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SW mountains speacil along with Rosie and east TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I totally agree with renaming the room; the whole discussions that take place in here are applicable to the Carolinas Its hard to break the old habits, but normally I do try to include areas I think we have posters from on here, and mention TENN quite a bit. I admit my area of emphasis on here is western Carolinas and northeast GA region, and only venture out hard when I'm very confident further out, but I'll try to mention more of other places like north Florida and Alabama and Mississippi, but inevitably there's going to be other mets. with expertise in those regions, plus its just plain hard to forecast for a huge region, especially when you try to be as specific as you can, and I try to get extremely specific when I can. I think there's just a lack of posters from certain geographic regions, but that will probably change with time, it doesn't mean no body thinks less of your region. I try to be fair as possible, all things considered. I don't know if that helps or not. I do agree though that the Carolinas are extremely covered on the forum, for whatever reason. NC is the tenth most populated state, not saying that to dimish anyone else at all, just that demographics. And Lord knows I wouldn't want to be a MidAtlantic elitist at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You can find the link here... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Does anyone know what the RUC says about tomorrow's activity? I don't believe I saw any references to it in the last few pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 After JB missing the Christmas storm so bad Im fine with him calling for an OV track. Also,I feel like all of the Carolina folks have done a good job to be inclusive to at least us GA people. Especially Foothills. Heck, even TN has a good number of folks on here now. A few years ago it was a lot harder to get an local info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Robert, Any thoughts on the NAM so far? I don't care if you do the whole SE just focus on WNC!....I kid I kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well Robert I am in upstate SC so I really rely on your information and from the looks of the Nam this run me and you both may get just a little of the white stuff!! Its hard to break the old habits, but normally I do try to include areas I think we have posters from on here, and mention TENN quite a bit. I admit my area of emphasis on here is western Carolinas and northeast GA region, and only venture out hard when I'm very confident further out, but I'll try to mention more of other places like north Florida and Alabama and Mississippi, but inevitably there's going to be other mets. with expertise in those regions, plus its just plain hard to forecast for a huge region, especially when you try to be as specific as you can, and I try to get extremely specific when I can. I think there's just a lack of posters from certain geographic regions, but that will probably change with time, it doesn't mean no body thinks less of your region. I try to be fair as possible, all things considered. I don't know if that helps or not. I do agree though that the Carolinas are extremely covered on the forum, for whatever reason. NC is the tenth most populated state, not saying that to dimish anyone else at all, just that demographics. And Lord knows I wouldn't want to be a MidAtlantic elitist at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Its hard to break the old habits, but normally I do try to include areas I think we have posters from on here, and mention TENN quite a bit. I admit my area of emphasis on here is western Carolinas and northeast GA region, and only venture out hard when I'm very confident further out, but I'll try to mention more of other places like north Florida and Alabama and Mississippi, but inevitably there's going to be other mets. with expertise in those regions, plus its just plain hard to forecast for a huge region, especially when you try to be as specific as you can, and I try to get extremely specific when I can. I think there's just a lack of posters from certain geographic regions, but that will probably change with time, it doesn't mean no body thinks less of your region. I try to be fair as possible, all things considered. I don't know if that helps or not. I do agree though that the Carolinas are extremely covered on the forum, for whatever reason. NC is the tenth most populated state, not saying that to dimish anyone else at all, just that demographics. And Lord knows I wouldn't want to be a MidAtlantic elitist at all. And Georgia has a higher population than NC, yet for some reason it seems like there are WAY more people from NC on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I totally agree with renaming the room; the whole discussions that take place in here are applicable to the Carolinas I just posted similar comments in the newly created "General Banter" thread that was created largely because Carolina posters did not want to hear about things outside of the Carolinas. It is beginning to sound like a MA or NE room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 out to 36 and north GA is in the sweet spot if temps cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And Georgia has a higher population than NC, yet for some reason it seems like there are WAY more people from NC on this forum. Might have something to do with the higher amounts of snow that generally fall in NC (mountains, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Its hard to break the old habits, but normally I do try to include areas I think we have posters from on here, and mention TENN quite a bit. I admit my area of emphasis on here is western Carolinas and northeast GA region, and only venture out hard when I'm very confident further out, but I'll try to mention more of other places like north Florida and Alabama and Mississippi, but inevitably there's going to be other mets. with expertise in those regions, plus its just plain hard to forecast for a huge region, especially when you try to be as specific as you can, and I try to get extremely specific when I can. I think there's just a lack of posters from certain geographic regions, but that will probably change with time, it doesn't mean no body thinks less of your region. I try to be fair as possible, all things considered. I don't know if that helps or not. I do agree though that the Carolinas are extremely covered on the forum, for whatever reason. NC is the tenth most populated state, not saying that to dimish anyone else at all, just that demographics. And Lord knows I wouldn't want to be a MidAtlantic elitist at all. Let me be very, very clear. Robert, Allan, Larry, Matthew East, Lookout.... Everybody who is a met in North Carolina does a heck of a job including Georgia, Tenn, and even Alabama when the system warrants. Larry and Storms Furry are great about covering the coast when it is appropriate, for anyone to say otherwise, is not READING. Dawson and Cheeze keep us GA folks in the loop. Don't change a thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Might have something to do with the higher amounts of snow that generally fall in NC (mountains, etc) Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 After JB missing the Christmas storm so bad Im fine with him calling for an OV track. Also,I feel like all of the Carolina folks have done a good job to be inclusive to at least us GA people. Especially Foothills. Heck, even TN has a good number of folks on here now. A few years ago it was a lot harder to get an local info. Don't forget us west central Ga and East Al folks....There are a number of members here from that area....And all because you folks give some great analysis....Phils explanation of the GFS/EURO a page or so back was phenomenal...He picked out the proverbial fly in the ointment....Foothills....You Rock!! There are also many others with great PBP...Burger, keep doing what you do....Tony and GAWX and Cheez (The new DR.NO...HAHA!!) are the main ones for my area..you most excellent model readers and mets....keep us folks a little farther down 85 in mind as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And Georgia has a higher population than NC, yet for some reason it seems like there are WAY more people from NC on this forum. Probably because NC tends to get a good bit more snow on average than GA. Raleigh and Charlotte both average more than twice what ATL gets, the mountains get much more (and even coastal areas like Greenville average a bit more). It's tough being a snow weenie in GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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