KChuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 +1 I think it's getting to be time for another banter thread...becoming very hard to sort the signal from the noise in here. Not sure what bearing Kirk Mellish's CYA forecast for Feb and Mar have to do with the storms this week and next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 you're a ****ing eekhole living in a hick town who has nothing better to do...**** YOU...Watch yourself... unsolicited PM i got.. LOL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 General Banter thread is STARTED....plz use accordingly Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think it's getting to be time for another banter thread...becoming very hard to sort the signal from the noise in here. Not sure what bearing Kirk Mellish's CYA forecast for Feb and Mar have to do with the storms this week and next. I agree. Some people are getting snappy for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't think this storm favors a phase anymore. So it looks to me like a pure southern mid-atlantic/northern deep south event(talking about the Sunday system). If you look at the gfs, you can see how it is trending towards the euro this run, with a strong southern wave. The precip is likely not going to just fall part east of central nc like that. You can see the potential out in western TN with the .75 QPF totals if this wave trends stronger in the south. I agree. The 18Z GFS has trended toward a neutral tilt and separate similar to the ECMWF. Only thing is the temps ahead of it warm some, but they're not handling the cold in place ahead of it, just like what happens in those years back when we had good northeast Confluence and 50/50, so I wouldn't sweat temps in NC yet. I'm gung ho on the possibility for this to streak quickly some precip under the confluence, which usually happened with this setup in the past. It has the look of snow across most of the 40 corridor from Arkansas to NC and for once,a good solid east-west band, which should wring out good snow rates , furthern east than shown. This setup would favor a big Upstate SC and lower NC hit since a less well developed Gulf low lately yielded moisture axis further north, this one may be the one to get southern NC and upstate SC region that has had some serious misses otherwise. Guess we'll see. Also, the long range still looks colder, colder and colder with the longwave in a great spot for Gulf development yet again down the road, on all the models. Could end up being one of the greatest Winters in the Southeast in a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good idea., Had some folks sign up during the Christmas storm. With so much to talk about we had to make the banter thread. So please use it folks.. General Banter thread is STARTED....plz use accordingly Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I agree. The 18Z GFS has trended toward a neutral tilt and separate similar to the ECMWF. Only thing is the temps ahead of it warm some, but they're not handling the cold in place ahead of it, just like what happens in those years back when we had good northeast Confluence and 50/50, so I wouldn't sweat temps in NC yet. I'm gung ho on the possibility for this to streak quickly some precip under the confluence, which usually happened with this setup in the past. It has the look of snow across most of the 40 corridor from Arkansas to NC and for once,a good solid east-west band, which should wring out good snow rates , furthern east than shown. This setup would favor a big Upstate SC and lower NC hit since a less well developed Gulf low lately yielded moisture axis further north, this one may be the one to get southern NC and upstate SC region that has had some serious misses otherwise. Guess we'll see. Also, the long range still looks colder, colder and colder with the longwave in a great spot for Gulf development yet again down the road, on all the models. Could end up being one of the greatest Winters in the Southeast in a long, long time. Now this is the kind of post I like to read more than once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I agree. The 18Z GFS has trended toward a neutral tilt and separate similar to the ECMWF. Only thing is the temps ahead of it warm some, but they're not handling the cold in place ahead of it, just like what happens in those years back when we had good northeast Confluence and 50/50, so I wouldn't sweat temps in NC yet. I'm gung ho on the possibility for this to streak quickly some precip under the confluence, which usually happened with this setup in the past. It has the look of snow across most of the 40 corridor from Arkansas to NC and for once,a good solid east-west band, which should wring out good snow rates , furthern east than shown. This setup would favor a big Upstate SC and lower NC hit since a less well developed Gulf low lately yielded moisture axis further north, this one may be the one to get southern NC and upstate SC region that has had some serious misses otherwise. Guess we'll see. Also, the long range still looks colder, colder and colder with the longwave in a great spot for Gulf development yet again down the road, on all the models. Could end up being one of the greatest Winters in the Southeast in a long, long time. Similar to Feb 12, 2010? I thought that hit southern NC and SC good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GSP is getting a little excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Similar to Feb 12, 2010? I thought that hit southern NC and SC good. nope it was too far south. got like 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Similar to Feb 12, 2010? I thought that hit southern NC and SC good. We all got some snow, but NW SC and most of NC was in the very light steady part, snowflakes were the size of large salt grains, very small, but accumulated 3" around this area. Central SC got hit harder, being closer to the richer moisture and lift. There hasn't been a big snow in Upstate since teh Upper low in March 2009, and other than that event, all the events were fleeting and smallish going back a long time. It takes either an upper low passing through I-85 to get enough moisture and lift in here, or an east -west band axis, which almost happened Christmas Day, but favored I-40 instead (like most winter storms do). We'll see how the trends continue to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We all got some snow, but NW SC and most of NC was in the very light steady part, snowflakes were the size of large salt grains, very small, but accumulated 3" around this area. Central SC got hit harder, being closer to the richer moisture and lift. There hasn't been a big snow in Upstate since teh Upper low in March 2009, and other than that event, all the events were fleeting and smallish going back a long time. It takes either an upper low passing through I-85 to get enough moisture and lift in here, or an east -west band axis, which almost happened Christmas Day, but favored I-40 instead (like most winter storms do). We'll see how the trends continue to look. I only got 2.75 inches out of the March 2009 storm. The lee side eddy screwed me and Oconeexman. I think he only managed a dusting from that storm. That's just one of many typical screwjobs for our area..... I really think there might be something to this micro-area averaging less snow; but all the mean annual snowfall maps I can find don't really show it. I know for a fact if someone made an annual average snowfall map for the past 20 years there would be a HUGE snow hole over Oconee, Pickens, and Western Greenville county. I just keeping hoping that eventually everything will even out and we will get ours, but I've been saying that for nearly 20 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We all got some snow, but NW SC and most of NC was in the very light steady part, snowflakes were the size of large salt grains, very small, but accumulated 3" around this area. Central SC got hit harder, being closer to the richer moisture and lift. There hasn't been a big snow in Upstate since teh Upper low in March 2009, and other than that event, all the events were fleeting and smallish going back a long time. It takes either an upper low passing through I-85 to get enough moisture and lift in here, or an east -west band axis, which almost happened Christmas Day, but favored I-40 instead (like most winter storms do). We'll see how the trends continue to look. Foothills, please excuse me for getting lost, but are you talking about the Wednesd night/Thursday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I agree. The 18Z GFS has trended toward a neutral tilt and separate similar to the ECMWF. Only thing is the temps ahead of it warm some, but they're not handling the cold in place ahead of it, just like what happens in those years back when we had good northeast Confluence and 50/50, so I wouldn't sweat temps in NC yet. I'm gung ho on the possibility for this to streak quickly some precip under the confluence, which usually happened with this setup in the past. It has the look of snow across most of the 40 corridor from Arkansas to NC and for once,a good solid east-west band, which should wring out good snow rates , furthern east than shown. This setup would favor a big Upstate SC and lower NC hit since a less well developed Gulf low lately yielded moisture axis further north, this one may be the one to get southern NC and upstate SC region that has had some serious misses otherwise. Guess we'll see. Also, the long range still looks colder, colder and colder with the longwave in a great spot for Gulf development yet again down the road, on all the models. Could end up being one of the greatest Winters in the Southeast in a long, long time. Not a weather question, but geography. Are you using I-40 to divide the state as north as south? Obviously folks out this way have a hard time considering Charlotte as the south part of the state (though it's about the same level as Faynam). Just seeking some clarification before giving in to weenism. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This thread should be " January 2011North Carolina/ South Carolina" ---> I ask a serious SE weather question about us just a bit down the road and numerous posts later about how much is or may be or was coming IMBY and with no reply to my model/set-up/dynamics question, I figure I might be in the wrong neighborhood. So - Where do I ask a serious SE question about why or why not something is or may or may not be happening between Savannah, Tifton, Tallahassee and Gainesville? 'Cause I respect the input and observations and knowledge of the folks who post here and are part of this community, I'd really like some direction; regrettably, it's impossible to keep scrolling through pages of how much someone got back when on some given event when you're looking for an answer to a current met question about a geographic area. Should we start a new topic - "Technical Questions for Your Area" or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not a weather question, but geography. Are you using I-40 to divide the state as north as south? Obviously folks out this way have a hard time considering Charlotte as the south part of the state (though it's about the same level as Faynam). Just seeking some clarification before giving in to weenism. Thanks! This entire winter I'd been wondering where Faynam was... then I heard my cousin talk about going home to Fayettenam. And now I feel like an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This thread should be " January 2011North Carolina/ South Carolina" ---> I ask a serious SE weather question about us just a bit down the road and numerous posts later about how much is or may be or was coming IMBY and with no reply to my model/set-up/dynamics question, I figure I might be in the wrong neighborhood. So - Where do I ask a serious SE question about why or why not something is or may or may not be happening between Savannah, Tifton, Tallahassee and Gainesville? 'Cause I respect the input and observations and knowledge of the folks who post here and are part of this community, I'd really like some direction; regrettably, it's impossible to keep scrolling through pages of how much someone got back when on some given event when you're looking for an answer to a current met question about a geographic area. Should we start a new topic - "Technical Questions for Your Area" or something? The cold air outbreak upcoming migrates from the Northwest and then throughout the whole country. Because of that, it can only penetrate so far south. To get really cold air in florida, you need a strong ridge out west. This setup has unbelievable blocking but there is just too big of an area for the cold air to settle in before it would try and push into Florida. You would need a ridge to pop out west that would channel all of that arctic are due south into Florida. Instead of spilling out over the entire country. Does that make sense? Edit: And you may even get enough ridging out west to get extremely cold air into Florida next week... It looks to me like the GFS is very cold all the way to Central,FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The cold air outbreak upcoming migrates from the Northwest and then throughout the whole country. Because of that, it can only penetrate so far south. To get really cold air in florida, you need a strong ridge out west. This setup has unbelievable blocking but there is just too big of an area for the cold air to settle in before it would try and push into Florida. You would need a ridge to pop out west that would channel all of that arctic are due south into Florida. Instead of spilling out over the entire country. Does that make sense? Yes, and thank you! I think I see a ridge developing out west, but where and how high is a question to me. But anyway, the courtesy of a response that gives details, like yours does, is most appreciated, and what I hope this Board does more of! Many thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is the potential of a lakes cutter next week pretty consistent w/ La Nina climo? Canadian and JMA show this w/ some extent of that on other models. It is cold before and after, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This entire winter I'd been wondering where Faynam was... then I heard my cousin talk about going home to Fayettenam. And now I feel like an idiot. Naw ...no need to feel dumb. Most folks never heard of Faynam until they get sent there, either by Uncle Sam or a Federal Judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Naw ...no need to feel dumb. Most folks never heard of Faynam until they get sent there, either by Uncle Sam or a Federal Judge. Look on the bright side... at least you don't live in Lumberton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That map is for 12/28/10.. Oh sorry. I neglected to check the date below the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It actually looks like it trended towards the Euro some. It keeps the first wave intact instead of having it get absorbed by the front range s/w. It's not the Euro run. but I think it was a step in the right direction. Much better run than 12z. Yep, if you notice how the handling of the 500mb low in new england is significantly different than 12z... much closer to the Euro. The Euro is still more intense with the first wave and thus has more snowfall and a larger portion of NC/SC/GA below freezing since the ridge never really gets pumping since it doesn't have time to recover between the shortwaves. At this point, there is still tons of uncertainty, but considering how the Christmas Storm went, I feel more comfortable to have the Euro on my side. I don't think this storm favors a phase anymore. So it looks to me like a pure southern mid-atlantic/northern deep south event(talking about the Sunday system). If you look at the gfs, you can see how it is trending towards the euro this run, with a strong southern wave. The precip is likely not going to just fall part east of central nc like that. You can see the potential out in western TN with the .75 QPF totals if this wave trends stronger in the south. I agree that it appears unlikely the southern stream shortwave and the northern stream shortwave will merge together... however, the southern stream shortwave on the 18z gfs is still dampening out pretty quickly, even though its is more rigorous this run. We have to keep this feature stronger, or otherwise shortly after the wave moves through WAA will start again ahead of the next shortwave. I agree. The 18Z GFS has trended toward a neutral tilt and separate similar to the ECMWF. While the southern stream feature has trended towards the Euro, the placement of the low 500mb heights is completely different. In fact the Euro at 12z shows a nice elongated 500mb height minimum near the Great Lakes, while the GFS shows a weak ridge in the polar jet stream in this area... I think this particular feature needs to be watched very closely as it helps keep the southern stream shortwave and the rockies shortwave more separated and prevents the premature amplification of the rockies shortwave... keeping most folks under a colder regime. Now which one is right? Honestly, I haven't got a clue, although the euro depiction of lower heights over the great lakes is rather strange, considering the similar intensity baroclinic low off the northeastern united states. Lets see how the models change at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Foothills, please excuse me for getting lost, but are you talking about the Wednesd night/Thursday event? Sunday/Monday I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Impressive batch of moisture starting to blossom in E TX, west of the Galveston area. 18z NAM sim at 6 hrs (0z) looked nothing like the national mosaic at the same time in this area. This is the start of our first potential event, the overrunning, which should keep the bulk of the precip south of NC, but radar even at this early stage looks encouraging. Hopefully this trend continues into the lower MS Valley and TN come tomorrow. Nickel and dime'ing for every 1/10" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Phil, Your posts this year are SOLID!!! The talent pool in the SE is unprecedented since we moved to this board! We have all witnessed model mayhem every winter but can anyone remember so much divergence in solutions like this winter? Bizarre! I am going to latch my hopes to the 12Z EURO because A) Looks better for MBY (just being honest) B)The EURO was better with the last system and C) IT'S THE EURO!! Anyway, looking forward to the 0Z run! Are you going to do PBP Robert or Burger??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Phil, Your posts this year are SOLID!!! The talent pool in the SE is unprecedented since we moved to this board! We have all witnessed model mayhem every winter but can anyone remember so much divergence in solutions like this winter? Bizarre! I am going to latch my hopes to the 12Z EURO because A) Looks better for MBY (just being honest) B)The EURO was better with the last system and C) IT'S THE EURO!! Anyway, looking forward to the 0Z run! Are you going to do PBP Robert or Burger??? Cold rain should start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cold rain should start a new thread. Along with some monkey mojo and the blue blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GGEM is looking pretty impressive from yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I only got 2.75 inches out of the March 2009 storm. The lee side eddy screwed me and Oconeexman. I think he only managed a dusting from that storm. That's just one of many typical screwjobs for our area..... I really think there might be something to this micro-area averaging less snow; but all the mean annual snowfall maps I can find don't really show it. I know for a fact if someone made an annual average snowfall map for the past 20 years there would be a HUGE snow hole over Oconee, Pickens, and Western Greenville county. I just keeping hoping that eventually everything will even out and we will get ours, but I've been saying that for nearly 20 years now. I knw exaclty what you mean. The snow maps and rainfall maps will be coming down on thenew30 year average where your at, es. the snow one. Just futher to your northeast and east, the rainmaps will be takiing a dive as well, very strongly. I know the reason hy in summer but not so much Winter. The slightes change in the upper flow has given a major change to precip patterns over the last decade, I'm sure you've heard me moan about it. Not a weather question, but geography. Are you using I-40 to divide the state as north as south? Obviously folks out this way have a hard time considering Charlotte as the south part of the state (though it's about the same level as Faynam). Just seeking some clarification before giving in to weenism. Thanks! I was referrin to CLT as being in the southern section, of course not as far south as ILM for example, but when I refer to I 40, I mean from RDU to AVL, as far as NC goes. Broader, I mean LIT or OKC to RDU. sorry about the typos, I'm on a laptop ad not used to it, so the keys take some gettig used to. Thanks to Burger time for his generosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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