January 2011

[georgiawx11]

Kirk Mellish, a meteorologist in Atlanta, is saying that after the end of this month, winter could be pretty much over for Georgia and much of the southeast, unlike last winter when it was cold and snowy in Feb and March. He says La Nina will start to kick into full gear in February. Anyone agree with this ?

[burgertime]

Kirk Mellish, a meteorologist in Atlanta, is saying that after the end of this month, winter could be pretty much over for Georgia and much of the southeast, unlike last winter when it was cold and snowy in Feb and March. He says La Nina will start to kick into full gear in February. Anyone agree with this ?

From what I understood all signs were pointing for it to weaken...however I haven't checked those threads in awhile.

[WhiteoutWX]

Kirk Mellish, a meteorologist in Atlanta, is saying that after the end of this month, winter could be pretty much over for Georgia and much of the southeast, unlike last winter when it was cold and snowy in Feb and March. He says La Nina will start to kick into full gear in February. Anyone agree with this ?

Winter was "supposed" to be over after Christmas, obviously its not. Nina climo favors a colder end of winter anyways so Im not sure what that forecast is based on.

[Weather Czar]

Kirk Mellish, a meteorologist in Atlanta, is saying that after the end of this month, winter could be pretty much over for Georgia and much of the southeast, unlike last winter when it was cold and snowy in Feb and March. He says La Nina will start to kick into full gear in February. Anyone agree with this ?

I Don't. And if I recall, someone posted his thoughts on the winter back in the fall and he called for a torch.

[georgiawx11]

I Don't. And if I recall, someone posted his thoughts on the winter back in the fall and he called for a torch.

That is true, he did say that.

[burgertime]

18z GFS does not agree with the Euro for the Monday storm, looks like some ice and then it warms up.

[WhiteoutWX]

18z GFS does not agree with the Euro for the Monday storm, looks like some ice and then it warms up.

Its definately wetter than 12z was, agreed on the ice aspect. Looks like a quick thump of either sleet or freezing rain

[WeatherNC]

Kirk Mellish, a meteorologist in Atlanta, is saying that after the end of this month, winter could be pretty much over for Georgia and much of the southeast, unlike last winter when it was cold and snowy in Feb and March. He says La Nina will start to kick into full gear in February. Anyone agree with this ?

All depends on what his forecast was leading up to this winter, if he, like many called for a cold Dec and torch thereafter, I would not put weight on what he thinks, or believes Feb and Mar will be like at this stage. Just from your post, it sounds like he is adjusting his forecast based on what we are seeing currently with respect to Jan, and using the one thing that has and is continuing to screw a lot of long range winter forecasts, Nina climo.

[Weather Czar]

18z GFS does not agree with the Euro for the Monday storm, looks like some ice and then it warms up.

It actually looks like it trended towards the Euro some. It keeps the first wave intact instead of having it get absorbed by the front range s/w. It's not the Euro run. but I think it was a step in the right direction. Much better run than 12z.

[georgiawx11]

This is what Kirk Mellish said :

Arctic Oscillation, negative NAO, and North Pole warming at 10mb.

Those are all signals for more arctic air to expand across much of the USA as we move through January thru the 23rd or so. This looks like it could be a pure Siberian Express, but at least early signs suggest the brunt of the polar motherlode will this time stay out of FL and GA, with us getting the less extreme southern edge. Of course the jury is still out as model mayhem rules, so lots of uncertainty on the specifics for any given day. But the pattern is ripe with potential for winter fun and games the next two weeks or so with storm systems possible from time to time. The main thing that is certain is below-normal temperatures returning this Friday and lasting through to somewhere around Jan 20-24 then winter takes another pause after that. In fact, unlike last year when February and March were quite cold with snow, this year winter may be largely done with GA as we end this month as the LA NINA influence belatedly shows its hand.

All eyes will be on the monster 1065 mb high dropping south out of the Yukon next week. It remains to be seen if the upper pattern will take the deepest part of the cold air over the Northwest or eastern U.S. There is clearly potential for winter weather mischief with this kind of setup; the greatest fear is that the air gets into the Southeast in very shallow form, and moist air from the Gulf runs over the cold layer, setting up some kind of ice storm for somebody somewhere in Dixie. The general pattern sure favors something like that at some point in the January 9-22 time frame with the potential mid-month cold wave for much of the continental U.S.

[burgertime]

It actually looks like it trended towards the Euro some. It keeps the first wave intact instead of having it get absorbed by the front range s/w. It's not the Euro run. but I think it was a step in the right direction. Much better run than 12z.

Yea looking at the 12z GFS you're right it certainly is better.

[BullCityWx]

18z GFS is probably snow here:

Date: 5 day AVN valid 18Z SUN  9 JAN 11
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   155                                                                 
SFC  988   254   1.5  -2.9  72  4.5  -0.2  96   6 275.6 276.2 273.6 284.2  3.11
 2  950   565  -2.3  -4.2  87  1.8  -3.0 104   7 274.8 275.3 272.8 282.9  2.95
 3  900   993  -3.4  -3.9  96  0.5  -3.6 164   9 278.0 278.6 275.0 286.8  3.17
 4  850  1446  -1.5  -2.4  93  0.9  -1.9 203  18 284.6 285.3 279.2 295.3  3.77
 5  800  1930  -2.0  -2.5  96  0.5  -2.2 224  24 289.0 289.7 281.5 300.5  3.98
 6  750  2442  -3.2  -3.5  98  0.3  -3.3 243  26 293.1 293.8 283.2 304.6  3.94
 7  700  2988  -4.1  -4.5  97  0.4  -4.3 255  35 298.0 298.7 285.2 309.7  3.91
 8  650  3570  -7.0  -7.2  98  0.3  -7.1 264  44 301.1 301.7 285.9 311.5  3.41
 9  600  4189 -11.6 -12.4  94  0.8 -11.9 269  45 302.7 303.2 285.4 310.4  2.46
10  550  4852 -15.1 -20.0  66  4.9 -16.4 264  45 306.2 306.4 285.6 310.7  1.42
11  500  5566 -19.7 -27.3  51  7.6 -21.2 260  51 309.1 309.2 285.9 311.8  0.81
12  450  6338 -25.9 -33.5  49  7.7 -27.0 256  57 310.7 310.8 286.2 312.5  0.50
13  400  7179 -33.0 -36.8  68  3.9 -33.4 252  66 312.1 312.2 286.6 313.6  0.41
14  350  8104 -39.7 -43.0  70  3.4 -39.9 248  79 315.3 315.3 287.5 316.1  0.24
15  300  9143 -46.1 -57.9  25 11.8 -46.5 247  92 320.3 320.3 288.9 320.5  0.05
16  250 10338 -51.8 -62.3  27 10.5 -52.1 248 100 329.0 329.0 291.5 329.2  0.04
17  200 11773 -53.9 -65.4  23 11.4 -54.2 253  94 347.3 347.4 296.1 347.5  0.03
18  150 13616 -56.7 -71.9  13 15.2 -57.0 257  78 372.3 372.3 301.0 372.4  0.02
19  100 16125 -65.3 -80.5  10 15.2 -65.4 264  65 401.5 401.5 305.4 401.6  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                        

[HKY_WX]

I don't think this storm favors a phase anymore. So it looks to me like a pure southern mid-atlantic/northern deep south event(talking about the Sunday system). If you look at the gfs, you can see how it is trending towards the euro this run, with a strong southern wave. The precip is likely not going to just fall part east of central nc like that. You can see the potential out in western TN with the .75 QPF totals if this wave trends stronger in the south.

[BullCityWx]

I don't think this storm favors a phase anymore. So it looks to me like a pure southern mid-atlantic/northern deep south event(talking about the Sunday system). If you look at the gfs, you can see how it is trending towards the euro this run, with a strong southern wave. The precip is likely not going to just fall part east of central nc like that. You can see the potential out in western TN with the .75 QPF totals if this wave trends stronger in the south.

based on the 18z GFS, i'd say SN to IP...the euro seems to favor more snow though.

[WeatherNC]

Yea looking at the 12z GFS you're right it certainly is better.

Still has the ugly looking Miller B Bright spot I guess is the model has some run-to-run continuity, something the EC is currently lacking.

[DCMetroWinston]

Kirk Mellish, a meteorologist in Atlanta, is saying that after the end of this month, winter could be pretty much over for Georgia and much of the southeast, unlike last winter when it was cold and snowy in Feb and March. He says La Nina will start to kick into full gear in February. Anyone agree with this ?

There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

[burgertime]

This is what Kirk Mellish said :

Arctic Oscillation, negative NAO, and North Pole warming at 10mb.

Those are all signals for more arctic air to expand across much of the USA as we move through January thru the 23rd or so. This looks like it could be a pure Siberian Express, but at least early signs suggest the brunt of the polar motherlode will this time stay out of FL and GA, with us getting the less extreme southern edge. Of course the jury is still out as model mayhem rules, so lots of uncertainty on the specifics for any given day. But the pattern is ripe with potential for winter fun and games the next two weeks or so with storm systems possible from time to time. The main thing that is certain is below-normal temperatures returning this Friday and lasting through to somewhere around Jan 20-24 then winter takes another pause after that. In fact, unlike last year when February and March were quite cold with snow, this year winter may be largely done with GA as we end this month as the LA NINA influence belatedly shows its hand.

Sounds more like he is just trying to save face with his earlier prediction, which isn't that bad of an argument you would think that at some point in a normal Nina winter NIna would HAVE to play a bigger role, but obviously with the negative NAO this is not a normal Nina.

[Weather Czar]

Still has the ugly looking Miller B Bright spot I guess is the model has some run-to-run continuity, something the EC is currently lacking.

True on the miller B. But at least it lets the weekend event roll thru the south and give some people a nice event. Could be 3 snow events in one week in some places.

[NCSNOW]

Kirk Mellish, a meteorologist in Atlanta, is saying that after the end of this month, winter could be pretty much over for Georgia and much of the southeast, unlike last winter when it was cold and snowy in Feb and March. He says La Nina will start to kick into full gear in February. Anyone agree with this ?

La Nina has already peaked. And really it doesn't matter what strength it is, because the -NAO/Block is whats dominating our weather. Now if your banking on drier than normal which has been and will always be responsible for below normal precip due to La Nina and no stj influence, then you can make a strong argument with less precip chances and our -Nao possibly dissapearing winter could be in trouble during Feb. But the NAO has and most likely will stay negative through winter and the forseeable future. MBY for one isn't setting any precip records this winter, thats for sure. I strongly beleive winter will continue colder than normal through Feb and also slightly below normal precip wise. just as it has over the first 5 weeks of the season.

[MillzPirate]

GFS is hilarious, shows snow for Key West

[Weather Czar]

GFS is hilarious, shows snow for Key West

And it looks to take the 850 low right over or just to the west of some of the I-95 cities on the miller b for next week.

[EmersonGA]

Thats my favorite Bushism DC.Looks like i topped out at 50 here today. Temps already heading south ppretty quick though.

[BillT]

save yourself and just forget it and move on.

ty, the only reason i am asking is to be able to follow the rules.

any more unwritten rules i need to know about?

[WeatherNC]

Searching for bright spots this run, after 168 hrs, next Wednesday, temps go in the tank for the SE and stay there for at-least a week. Any slugs of moisture we get in that period would likely be frozen for most. Sure it could be cold and dry, but since the beginning of Dec, we have been hard pressed here to go a week without some QPF. Whether it comes from another overrunning, nw flow, or maybe even a Gulf low, the period from the 12th-20th looks very cold, and I am not buying the dry part at this time.

ty, the only reason i am asking is to be able to follow the rules.

any more unwritten rules i need to know about?

Please stop, powerstroke said move on, not to reply and keep the off-topic crap going. We have a-lot of folks who come here for pertinent weather information, and they could care-less whether you understand the rules or not. The rules are clearly linked in the header bar up top, and it is every users responsibility to follow them. If you want to stick around and enjoy some of the finest weather disco on the web, than I suggest you start adding constructively to the conversation, or read more and post less.

[Sickman]

ty, the only reason i am asking is to be able to follow the rules.

any more unwritten rules i need to know about?

Please stop dragging this thread off-topic by asking stuff like this in here. If you want to discuss board etiquette, I'd suggest making a thread in OT, or PMing people.

Moving on...

[pcbjr]

This is what Kirk Mellish said :

Arctic Oscillation, negative NAO, and North Pole warming at 10mb.

Those are all signals for more arctic air to expand across much of the USA as we move through January thru the 23rd or so. This looks like it could be a pure Siberian Express, but at least early signs suggest the brunt of the polar motherlode will this time stay out of FL and GA, with us getting the less extreme southern edge. Of course the jury is still out as model mayhem rules, so lots of uncertainty on the specifics for any given day. But the pattern is ripe with potential for winter fun and games the next two weeks or so with storm systems possible from time to time. The main thing that is certain is below-normal temperatures returning this Friday and lasting through to somewhere around Jan 20-24 then winter takes another pause after that. In fact, unlike last year when February and March were quite cold with snow, this year winter may be largely done with GA as we end this month as the LA NINA influence belatedly shows its hand.

All eyes will be on the monster 1065 mb high dropping south out of the Yukon next week. It remains to be seen if the upper pattern will take the deepest part of the cold air over the Northwest or eastern U.S. There is clearly potential for winter weather mischief with this kind of setup; the greatest fear is that the air gets into the Southeast in very shallow form, and moist air from the Gulf runs over the cold layer, setting up some kind of ice storm for somebody somewhere in Dixie. The general pattern sure favors something like that at some point in the January 9-22 time frame with the potential mid-month cold wave for much of the continental U.S.

If I may ask a couple questions, and hopefully get some insightful (and serious) response(s).

I look at the models. We have a mother-load of cold ready to come into the CONUS. Why is central and south GA and north FL exempt? Most models (not all, but most) I see have 850 temps way above 0 south of Macon throughout. Why? Anyone have any sound reason to suspect that Charleston to Tifton to Tallahassee to Gainesville might also get cold (or not)?

[Batman]

I Don't. And if I recall, someone posted his thoughts on the winter back in the fall and he called for a torch.

I looked back over Mellish's blog. I could not find his winter write-up. Possibly removed due to high probability of failure. I do remember it saying that the winter overall would be warmer and drier than normal. He said Dec. would be the coldest month and Jan/Feb. had the "potential" to be much warmer and drier. Mellish has become one to rarely make a firm stand on a short or long range forecast. He is rarely aggressive about snow or ice chances. Of course, he is forecasting for the ATL. area. If you said no to snow every time in ATL, you would be correct nearly everytime. I do really question the logic behind the winter being done after about Jan. 24. It could be, but this weenie's eyes don't see overwhelming evidence to support that. La Nina appears to be fading and the NAO/AO seem to favor cold for us for the forseable future. Even the PNA looks to possibly turn positive later this month. Today's Feb. statement maybe one last CYA attempt for his winter forecast . just my 2 cents.

[dsaur]

Searching for bright spots this run, after 168 hrs, next Wednesday, temps go in the tank for the SE and stay there for at-least a week. Any slugs of moisture we get in that period would likely be frozen for most. Sure it could be cold and dry, but since the beginning of Dec, we have been hard pressed here to go a week without some QPF. Whether it comes from another overrunning, nw flow, or maybe even a Gulf low, the period from the 12th-20th looks very cold, and I am not buying the dry part at this time.

Yeah, what I like is that moisture seems to be hanging around through out the period. Might only be days and days of freezing drizzle, but that is better than cold and dry. And if Mellish is right and we only get sideswiped by the motherlode, then it will be easier to get a Miller A in just the right position hopefully. I'm the eternal optimist. Every day in winter that it is cold, is a chance for sleet and snow. T

[DaculaWeather]

Looks like FFC (Steve Nelson in this case) is doing a much better job with the AFD's now

and...

Birmingham is just a comic!

[feloniousq]

I think it's getting to be time for another banter thread...becoming very hard to sort the signal from the noise in here. Not sure what bearing Kirk Mellish's CYA forecast for Feb and Mar has on the storms this week and next.