dsaur Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Per 12Z Euro, Tony south of ATL gets cold rain starting 1/9 AM. Lol, that will change at least 6 times. Remember I was getting a foot of snow at one point from the Doc at Christmas. I did end up with something with a one in it though.... T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 granted i haven't seen the detailed maps yet. Allan's maps really do tell the tale. At 120 hours, we have a nice low thanks the amplification of the southern stream feature... however, thats about as amplified as it gets since there is no west coast ridging to support further digging and the low 500mb heights to the east prevent it from riding northward... thus it stats to become suppressed at this point. At 144 hours, the storm is already off the coast... 850mb temps don't really change too much, although it seems like most of WNC is in the snow category... there might be some sleet/ice on the southern flank due to the the powerful ridge to the west nosing down between the 120-144 hour period, but its likely not too strong since the low is actually weakening, which will tend to limit the affects of strong northeasterly winds helping to enhance damming. By 168 hours, the second northern stream shortwave doesn't amplify too quickly since the energy it was previously phasing with the southern stream shortwave has dampened out before it could capture the feature... thus we have a much weaker more overrunning solution depicted here, which a likely area of light snow/sleet/freezing rain across GA/SC/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 New Raleigh AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Allan's maps really do tell the tale. At 120 hours, we have a nice low thanks the amplification of the southern stream feature... however, thats about as amplified as it gets since there is no west coast ridging to support further digging and the low 500mb heights to the east prevent it from riding northward... thus it stats to become suppressed at this point. This map is a pretty setup for the Tennessee Valley. If this verified, I would imagine the precip on the northern side of this to be fairly robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 this is a better run, but with the changes lately on Euro, until it locks in its going to be hard to trust it. But just looking at the 5H, not the surface, its more similar to its previous runs regarding the southern system, but its now allowing it to be stronger , and for longer. We've seen that before. Its a neutral tilt in southern Texas, with prolific rains there and La, with snow breaking out along 40 in Arkansas to Tenn, and northern Miss. The surface is around 1000mb southeast of Jackson, and only after that does it show weakening in southern Georgia. I'd be happy with that track and know that the trend of keeping it stronger for longer is probably going to continue. The trough is very healthy right up til Sunday morning, so this is no run of the mill ordinary "flat wave" coming into the Southeast. Overall, if that 5H look is right and its thermal digram, I'd forecast a 4" to 8" swath of snow on its northern shield from central Arkansas, across southern 2/3 of Tennesse into NC, and upper SC, n GA to N Ala N. Miss. Its good overrunning in due east to west fashion which should help keep the axis of snow with hardly any dryslot. Again, its another switch from the Euro, but one I thought was going to happen about like this, so maybe this is closer to how it will work out. I'd worry about QPF amounts later. The trough is very healthy, and if it stays strong and neutral in Tx/ to the Gulf coast like that, Snow would fly. Beyond that storm, possibly another event, but I won't speculate on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 this is a better run, but with the changes lately on Euro, until it locks in its going to be hard to trust it. But just looking at the 5H, not the surface, its more similar to its previous runs regarding the southern system, but its now allowing it to be stronger , and for longer. We've seen that before. Its a neutral tilt in southern Texas, with prolific rains there and La, with snow breaking out along 40 in Arkansas to Tenn, and northern Miss. The surface is around 1000mb southeast of Jackson, and only after that does it show weakening in southern Georgia. I'd be happy with that track and know that the trend of keeping it stronger for longer is probably going to continue. The trough is very healthy right up til Sunday morning, so this is no run of the mill ordinary "flat wave" coming into the Southeast. Overall, if that 5H look is right and its thermal digram, I'd forecast a 4" to 8" swath of snow on its northern shield from central Arkansas, across southern 2/3 of Tennesse into NC, and upper SC, n GA to N Ala N. Miss. Its good overrunning in due east to west fashion which should help keep the axis of snow with hardly any dryslot. Again, its another switch from the Euro, but one I thought was going to happen about like this, so maybe this is closer to how it will work out. I'd worry about QPF amounts later. The trough is very healthy, and if it stays strong and neutral in Tx/ to the Gulf coast like that, Snow would fly. Beyond that storm, possibly another event, but I won't speculate on it yet. Dude...your commentary on how things unfold are awesome. Even when the outlook is not what I want, I at least understand and not left wondering. You seriously need to be in the forecasting business, if you are not ALREADY doing so.... Thanks for the PBP (as always). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 this is a better run, but with the changes lately on Euro, until it locks in its going to be hard to trust it. But just looking at the 5H, not the surface, its more similar to its previous runs regarding the southern system, but its now allowing it to be stronger , and for longer. We've seen that before. Its a neutral tilt in southern Texas, with prolific rains there and La, with snow breaking out along 40 in Arkansas to Tenn, and northern Miss. The surface is around 1000mb southeast of Jackson, and only after that does it show weakening in southern Georgia. I'd be happy with that track and know that the trend of keeping it stronger for longer is probably going to continue. The trough is very healthy right up til Sunday morning, so this is no run of the mill ordinary "flat wave" coming into the Southeast. Overall, if that 5H look is right and its thermal digram, I'd forecast a 4" to 8" swath of snow on its northern shield from central Arkansas, across southern 2/3 of Tennesse into NC, and upper SC, n GA to N Ala N. Miss. Its good overrunning in due east to west fashion which should help keep the axis of snow with hardly any dryslot. Again, its another switch from the Euro, but one I thought was going to happen about like this, so maybe this is closer to how it will work out. I'd worry about QPF amounts later. The trough is very healthy, and if it stays strong and neutral in Tx/ to the Gulf coast like that, Snow would fly. Beyond that storm, possibly another event, but I won't speculate on it yet. Check your messages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run of the EURO gives the far northern counties of GA a rain to snow scenario on Sunday with decent QPF....areas north of Lake Lanier. Another 3-6 here in CHA CHA with that run....will patiently wait for follow-ups over the next few days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The trend is strong with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, everyone calm down, this is one run of a model that has been flopping all over like a fish- and the other models have varying solutions as well. We need at least 2-3 more days before any real consensus emerges, and maybe not even then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The Key difference between the GGEM, GFS, and the EURO is the way they handle the current strong 500mb low that will dive down int the Northeastern US in the next 72 hours. The euro seems to be the most hesitant moving this feature, keeping the lowest 500mb height minimums firmly planted over Michigan, while the GFS and the GGEM have this feature moving into the northeast and then out to sea. This has direct implications on the southern stream shortwave in the middle range, as it hangs back more 500mb energy over th great lakes, rather than transferring the lower heights to the intensifying low offshore. This actually benefits us because the southern stream shortwave is given room to move further east faster(since the heights don't amplify over the Atlantic as much). This allows it to escape the influence of the northern stream shortwave coming out of the rockies. I think the takeaway message though is look how much uncertainty there is with the 500mb feature over the northeast.. the models are really having a difficulty time given the strong block located in Central Canada. As I mentioned after the 12z gfs, the best trend we can ask for is a stronger but further east southern stream feature. We need it to amplify at the right spot so that way the southeast can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, everyone calm down, this is one run of a model that has been flopping all over like a fish- and the other models have varying solutions as well. We need at least 2-3 more days before any real consensus emerges, and maybe not even then. Cheez is right. Just look at how the Christmas storm evolved. Unfortunately, I think central and eastern NC is overdue for a significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, everyone calm down, this is one run of a model that has been flopping all over like a fish- and the other models have varying solutions as well. We need at least 2-3 more days before any real consensus emerges, and maybe not even then. you couldn't have said it better. Everybody on here should know that by now. Christmas week Euro showed a bomb all week with snow up to 20 inches, then it lost it and picked it back up Christmas Eve. Too early to get all excited only to be let down at the end. Yes the pattern looks good but we have all been down this road before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, everyone calm down, this is one run of a model that has been flopping all over like a fish- and the other models have varying solutions as well. We need at least 2-3 more days before any real consensus emerges, and maybe not even then. Agreed! I am kind of keeping a strong eye on tomorrow and Thursday for now (although the timing of precip arrival for my area is not too promising) and taking peeks at the long term to boot. Very interesting week coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On a more immediate note... the 12z ensemble mean for tomorrow is stronger with more precipitation across the Carolinas and Georgia. This should be a red flag that the gfs is playing "catch up" and we might be seeing a surprise little even unfolding within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On a more immediate note... the 12z ensemble mean for tomorrow is stronger with more precipitation across the Carolinas and Georgia. This should be a red flag that the gfs is playing "catch up" and we might be seeing a surprise little even unfolding within 24 hours. I hope it doesn't surprise us in the middle of the day. People around here will panic and we really could have a repeat of Jan 19, 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I hope it doesn't surprise us in the middle of the day. People around here will panic and we really could have a repeat of Jan 19, 2005. Oh well, let them panic. I want my snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I hope it doesn't surprise us in the middle of the day. People around here will panic and we really could have a repeat of Jan 19, 2005. I disagree. Back 2003 it was bone dry and very very cold. That snow burst came down like Pledge on a hardwood floor. Almost zero slush. Temps will not be nearly as cold this Friday I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm liking our chances for the triad and central NC to see some very light snow Thursday. Nearly every 12zGFS ensemble member shows us getting precip with 850s below 0, gotta believe thats gonna produce flurries or l.snow for a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I disagree. Back 2003 it was bone dry and very very cold. That snow burst came down like Pledge on a hardwood floor. Almost zero slush. Temps will not be nearly as cold this Friday I don't think. I thought he was talking about tomorrow. Either way, it's nice to have a couple chances of snow this week and more next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Agreed! I am kind of keeping a strong eye on tomorrow and Thursday for now (although the timing of precip arrival for my area is not too promising) and taking peeks at the long term to boot. Very interesting week coming up... Although I can't deny the excitement about next week, I'm more concerned with the chance and development of tomorrow night's feature. Looking at this afternoon's HRW(Hi-resolution) it's very similar to what the 12ZNAM showed. It's already been said about the RUC to be watched closely over the next 24hrs. Should someone start a thread on this minor/over-perfoming event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Although I can't deny the excitement about next week, I'm more concerned with the chance and development of tomorrow night's feature. Looking at this afternoon's HRW(Hi-resolution) it's very similar to what the 12ZNAM showed. It's already been said about the RUC to be watched closely over the next 24hrs. Should someone start a thread on this minor/over-perfoming event? jeesh that is so close - need it to move a little to the west, like one county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I hope it doesn't surprise us in the middle of the day. People around here will panic and we really could have a repeat of Jan 19, 2005. There is a 100% of a 0% chance that that will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There is a 100% of a 0% chance that that will happen again. How can you say that? Because it will never snow like that again? Or because people will not panic and get on the roads and cause a major gridlock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And, here comes the 18Z NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 well someone may see some snow tomorrow Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 256 PM EST Tuesday Jan 4 2011 Synopsis... high pressure will pass by to the north on Wednesday as a low pressure system develops along the Gulf Coast. This system will move eastward and off the southeast coastline by Thursday morning. A strong cold front will cross the southern Appalachians on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. && Near term /through Wednesday/... there have been a couple interesting developments in last couple of model runs...with the possibility of snow now in the forecast for parts of the mountains A southern stream shortwave...currently over the 4 corners region...will open up and eject quickly eastward tonight and Wednesday. By Wednesday evening it/S expected to move across the forecast area. While past model runs have been quite dry with this system...they are now showing more moisture. The 12 UTC NAM was by far the wettest model over the region as it develops good low level warm advection and deep layer ascent over the SW forecast area starting in the late afternoon hours. In fact...it even generates a few inches of snow over the higher elevations of the SW and central NC mountains by 00 UTC Thursday. The GFS doesn/T have nearly the quantitative precipitation forecast...but it has trended wetter as well. Also...the GFS 500mb qg vertical velocities show the region under a broad area of synoptic scale ascent as the wave approaches. That is to say...the wetter solution certainly has broad scale support. The UKMET and Canadian also bring precipitation into the SW part of the forecast area late in the day...though their quantitative precipitation forecast is also quite low...generally under a tenth of an inch. The 12 UTC European model (ecmwf) also develops precipitation over the mountains late in the day. I sided toward the cooler NAM for my precipitation types...which gives ME snow in the afternoon hours over the southern mountains...with the exception of the deeper valleys. The rain snow line should Orient itself close to the NC/SC and NC/Georgia line. I/ve increased probability of precipitation quite a bit...but there is still only a modest area of likely probability of precipitation over the SW mountains and down across the Savannah River valley. I have around an inch of snow at some of the higher NC mountains locations south and west of kavl. Further supporting a little snow...the sref plume diagrams have been showing more quantitative precipitation forecast...and mainly snow...at kavl the past couple runs. While there won't be a lot of precipitation...there could certainly be some travel problems starting late tmrw over the SW mountain counties. If the later runs remain as wet...then higher probability of precipitation and slightly higher snowfall totals are likely for the mountains late tmrw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Cheez is right. Just look at how the Christmas storm evolved. Unfortunately, I think central and eastern NC is overdue for a significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 well someone may see some snow tomorrow Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 256 PM EST Tuesday Jan 4 2011 Synopsis... high pressure will pass by to the north on Wednesday as a low pressure system develops along the Gulf Coast. This system will move eastward and off the southeast coastline by Thursday morning. A strong cold front will cross the southern Appalachians on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. Pretty much puts us on the line, I like the chance of seeing some flakes mixed in and falling early morning hours on the way to work, makes the day alot better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Although I can't deny the excitement about next week, I'm more concerned with the chance and development of tomorrow night's feature. Looking at this afternoon's HRW(Hi-resolution) it's very similar to what the 12ZNAM showed. It's already been said about the RUC to be watched closely over the next 24hrs. Should someone start a thread on this minor/over-perfoming event? Agreed. I have my eye on this one. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_030l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Argghh! 18Z Nam coming in a little warmer for thursday morning...still wet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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