HWY316wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 new to this forum but in honor of all the naysayers i want to start with, NO snow for the SE, it is too warm, there will be a dry slot, the cold will chase the precip, climatology says this cant happen, the ground is too warm, if it does snow it will miss my house. Welcome felow weenie! Brick will be glad to have a class mate with those words! In all seriousness, welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 @126 heavy QPF is in GA and moisture is all over the SE. Looks a little colder then the 00z run at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Per this run it looks like snow to ZR for NC. The bulk of the precip comes in and our 850's jump up past 40N points north and west of 40 would be snow. Much better run for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro does another pretty big swing, still not to be trusted until it becomes consistent. FWIW it has a good setup for NC, nothing but rain here with maybe some sleet on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro does another pretty big swing, still not to be trusted until it becomes consistent. FWIW it has a good setup for NC, nothing but rain here with maybe some sleet on the front end. Yea Euro is more mixed up then a milkshake. Have fun forecasting this storm I'm glad I just get to sit on the sidelines and speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro sounds like it might be good for the state of TN. Can someone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 @144 it looks like another storm is ramping up off in OK and TX. Robert needs to check this run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is looking good and it's trending similar to the last system with the southern wave. Meaning stronger and more cutoff each run. This would be a major snowstorm for NC on Sunday if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yea Euro is more mixed up then a milkshake. Have fun forecasting this storm I'm glad I just get to sit on the sidelines and speculate. Well...it will certainly be interesting to read the HPC discussion this afternoon....wonder how they will sort out all this model maddness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro sounds like it might be good for the state of TN. Can someone confirm? TN, looks OK...the only problem will be if you guys get enough heavy qpf, the SFC temps verbatim jump up during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is looking good and it's trending similar to the last system with the southern wave. Meaning stronger and more cutoff each run. This would be a major snowstorm for NC on Sunday if it's right. You not worried about our 850's jumping up? Verbatim it looked like ZR....but I'm just reading a simple map, is that just something to ignore at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How are the temps and QPF for western southcarolina on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How are the temps and QPF for western southcarolina on this run? IMBY QUESTION IMBY QUESTION! Absolutely no reason to ask such a thing this far out!!! I FEEL LIKE DT WHEN I YELL BUT I GOTTA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro does another pretty big swing, still not to be trusted until it becomes consistent. FWIW it has a good setup for NC, nothing but rain here with maybe some sleet on the front end. Yea the euro is a pretty major change from 00z showing a much more consolidated southern stream s/w... this is the trend we want to see... if that first southern shortwave can trend stronger and further detached from influence of the northern stream shortwave that is dropping into the Rockies, than we could see the system become more of a miller A which would be more beneficial for snow lovers, than a complicated miller B solution depicted on the 12z gfs. Given the strong block over Canada and the one developing in Alaska, this is a very complicated pattern, and we are going to see some pretty extreme shifts in guidance in the next 3-4 days before we really know what is going to happen. Remembering back to the Christmas Snowstorm... we wanted phasing because that was the only way we could get enough energy to generate a major snowstorm across the southeast. However, in this upcoming situation... any phasing with the northern stream will force the low to turn northward too soon, since the phasing takes place too far west. Thus we have a strong low that goes up the spine of the Appalachians or even to the west. So a stronger more discrete southern stream shortwave is more beneficial to us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You not worried about our 850's jumping up? Verbatim it looked like ZR....but I'm just reading a simple map, is that just something to ignore at this point? I guess it depends on where you live. The setup with the cutoff low strikes me more as a snow/rain scenario than ice. Perhaps some sleet mixing in over southern portions of the state. the highest 850 temp in HKY through that system is -.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So the 12z Euro is a Miller A. The 12z GEM cuts up through Kansas. The 12z GFS is a Miller B where the primary runs up the App's and the secondary forms off the NC coast. So not only did they not converge they diverged even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll take the freezing rain, especially since it doesn't look like it would be enough to cause many problems with respect trees/power lines etc. You can have that cold 33 to 35 degree rain It's an interesting setup though as areas in northeast Ga could be below freezing for a good 24 hours with light freezing rain. It should be cold enough..temps start off in the low 30s, dps in the teens throughout the entire boundary layer so we should cool below freezing. Just enough to make things look good though..a 0.25 or less before it warms up to the dreaded 33 to 35 degree rain that you want lol Ha! Well, we both know we get what we get I do know zrain has a tricky way of being worse than forecast a lot of the time, and it doesn't leave readily many times to. A little lite zrain is interesting, as long as the wind doesn't blow,... and I can even get in some good sledding.., but I believe most times I'd rather you have it and I'll take the cold rain. Anyway, you get more of it over there ...a little cad, a little drizzle off the Atlantic and bingo, the Athens area gets zrain. Anything over 1/4" you are welcome to, lol. I've seen one 2 1/2 / 3 inch zrain and that is enough for two lifetimes! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12 euro 174 map is dry for the SE US with dry W 500 mb flow. Next few maps should be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro looks dramatically better this run with the upper wave coming out of Texas. It's not so attached to the wave diving through the Rockies, and therefore, it maintains it's strength longer as it moves east. That setup also keeps the warm air from surging north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Per the Euro another clipper is coming on Tuesday for NC but QPF is very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I guess it depends on where you live. The setup with the cutoff low strikes more as a snow/rain scenario than ice. Perhaps some sleet mixing in over southern portions of the state. the highest 850 temp in HKY through that system is -.9. Gotcha, thanks for the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro is bringing a mother load of cold next week. Freezing temps are in Mexico on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 granted i haven't seen the detailed maps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run of the EURO gives the far northern counties of GA a rain to snow scenario on Sunday with decent QPF....areas north of Lake Lanier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thank you for explaining that. That is what I was wanting to know, was it a stronger thrend for the south caolina area. Thanks again for the input. Euro looks dramatically better this run with the upper wave coming out of Texas. It's not so attached to the wave diving through the Rockies, and therefore, it maintains it's strength longer as it moves east. That setup also keeps the warm air from surging north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Too much hand wringing going on here! Repeat the mantra, "It's all the the pattern, it's all in the pattern"! And trust in the blocking. Blocking is your friend! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 For anyone that is interested, DT seems to think this is a slam dunk Miller A all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run of the EURO gives the far northern counties of GA a rain to snow scenario on Sunday with decent QPF....areas north of Lake Lanier. Bring it on down about 20 miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 For anyone that is interested, DT seems to think this is a slam dunk Miller A all the way. Here his comments via FB... Wxrisk.com The first thing to notice about the 12z Tuesday euro model is that at 108 hours the model has the piece of energy in the jet stream over TX very strong. It is much stronger on this run of the European than it has been on any prev...See Moreabout a minute ago · Wxrisk.com But beyond that the new 12z euro has the main piece of energy -- what is referred to as the 500 mb Low and short wave tracking further to the south and east as it swings through the Lower Plains. The 12z euro is 200+ miles further to the s and e with this 500 mb Low/ short wave.about a minute ago · Wxrisk.com As a result the whole system is further to the south and east and the model clearly sees the impact of the vortex stuck over southeastern Canada . This forces the surface Low to slide off the NC Coast and track in a NE direction. The model at this time does not have a lot of precipitation with the Low but I am not worried about that even at its 168 hrs out. The important thing is that the model with the best resolution of all the models is seeing the overall pattern quite nicely... Unlike the Canadian and the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Bring it on down about 20 miles! Exactly. The trend is our friend. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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