Weather Czar Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Almost never see that happen so the jury is still out with the NAM IMHO. The Canadian and RGEM have had this system for a few days so it has support. The Euro has had it off and on as well. Either way at most it's maybe a 3-4 inch event in the Mtns. Looking towards next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Almost never see that happen so the jury is still out with the NAM IMHO. Yea true that even with the last storm the GFS and NAM were in two separate worlds IIRC right up to the day of the storm and the GFS faired better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 since this event is just getting recognized, the big NAM and GFS are going to be following the RUC so watch that model for this event. The 18Z will start to converge along the RUC lines, which runs to 18 hours now. The RUC looks sharper and more s/w ridging ahead of it as it crosses Oklahoma and Arkansas early tomorrow, compared with NAM or GFS, but closer to NAM. It begins to expand moisture quickly toward 14 hours or so in Eastern Tex and into southern Arkansas so its looking like the NAM, but I don't know how heavy or light the precip will be. The stronger the vort stays in shape before shearing , the better. The GFS at 132 still doesnt' have precip east of the Apps yet. Tennessee may get a nice coating from the Sunday event, and I would think n. Ga as well, but all models continue to dampen it out rapidly as it comes east of the mountains into the Carolinas, thanks to the incoming Rockies system and the strong convergence in the Northeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks in nc will need to watch the strong clipper/shortwave around hour 66-72. It not only looks vigorous but it has some similarities to the jan 23, 03 event. Check out the link at ncsu and compare their 300 and 500mb maps. Not an exact match and this one is not quite as vigorous in the upper levels, but the foothills do do reside in the left exist region of the 300mb jet at the time it moves through which could enhance any meso low that might form. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is some localized totals that would exceed expectations. Interestingly the nam does carry a weak surface low through the region..not surprising considering it's higher resolution. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ nam 300mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'd take a January 03 repeat. There was a band of snow that moved straight down I-75 from Tennessee. I got around and inch from it before the band died in Marietta. We couldn't get out of our driveway since the first of the snow turned to ice on the street. I got to sit at home and watch the snow sublimate in the dry air. If I recall the temps held in the upper teens all day. I also seem to remember a 7 degree morning around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Per the GFS next week verbatim it's a crippling ice storm for the NW section of the mountains of NC and pretty much rain for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks in nc will need to watch the strong clipper/shortwave around hour 66-72. It not only looks vigorous but it has some similarities to the jan 23, 03 event. Check out the link at ncsu and compare their 300 and 500mb maps. Not an exact match and this one is not quite as vigorous in the upper levels, but the foothills do do reside in the left exist region of the 300mb jet at the time it moves through which could enhance any meso low that might form. So I wouldn't be surprised if there is some localized totals that would exceed expectations. Interestingly the nam does carry a weak surface low through the region..not surprising considering it's higher resolution. m 300mb If I can recall, we ended up with 8-10" (thats being conservative) out of the 01-23-2003 event. They were forecasting 1-2" and I remember 12 hours before the event seeing the NAM showing a nice swath of QPF. That was an AWESOME event, with thundersnow to boot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what a very cold, widespread outbreak. it covers the whole North American continent, we almost never see this, yet the models have been showing this a while, so chances are its coming. Only Florida may escape. By day 9 and 10, the deep vortex coming into Hudson Bay is 486dm it looks like, maybe off the register actually, its hard to tell, but its also very large, so theres no shortage of cold air on our side of the Globe. I don't know if that makes it to us, but we'll still be pretty cold even without it. The only thing to say about early next week is that its messy and I have no idea how it will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what a very cold, widespread outbreak. it covers the whole North American continent, we almost never see this, yet the models have been showing this a while, so chances are its coming. Only Florida may escape. By day 9 and 10, the deep vortex coming into Hudson Bay is 486dm it looks like, maybe off the register actually, its hard to tell, but its also very large, so theres no shortage of cold air on our side of the Globe. I don't know if that makes it to us, but we'll still be pretty cold even without it. The only thing to say about early next week is that its messy and I have no idea how it will play out. I know the model runs do not look to good for the 3rd system (Sun or Monday) but there are so many other things that need to happen before that, for the solution the GFS will even verify (our monster low being sheared out). If I was to bet, we will see something a lot different come Sunday. This pattern has so much potential. I sure hope our Triangle of snowless hell is finally destroyed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS said "What gulf low?" This stinks....NC folks...you are looking to have the better chances than the rest of us...at this point....who knows what the ECMWF will spit out...This is crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know the model runs do not look to good for the 3rd system (Sun or Monday) but there are so many other things that need to happen before that, for the solution the GFS will even verify (our monster low being sheared out). If I was to bet, we will see something a lot different come Sunday. This pattern has so much potential. I sure hope our Triangle of snowless hell is finally destroyed! Yea with so many systems coming in one right after the other it's hard to imagine what will happen and it's understood why the GFS could be having issues. Anyone's guess at this point. Wouldn't that be something if we could get snow on Wed. night, Friday night and then Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Do you think it would be better to have separate threads for the events coming up in the next week? We have three separate chances so close together, though, so it might not make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM has a 992 mb surface low in SE Kansas 12Z Sunday which moves to Iowa by 12Z Monday. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No point in diversifying and creating three deserted threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS said "What gulf low?" This stinks....NC folks...you are looking to have the better chances than the rest of us...at this point....who knows what the ECMWF will spit out...This is crazy... Yeah I got nothing. Models aren't showing me anything exciting at all. 12Z GFS looks like a rain storm early next week with suppression city for the rest of the month. I feel like someone threw a bunch of puzzle pieces on the floor and I'm trying to see the picture from what's laying there. Maybe later in the week the pieces will be better. I just have a feeling the cold and dry picture is going to come into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The GFS is signaling ice storm to me at 162+ hrs out for at least the upper SE. That's pretty good wedging being modeled that far out. I would not be surprised at all to see more of a cold air feed develop in the modeling as we advance closer, as well as a more southerly track of the low. We'll see, but I think issuing a Yellow Alert is the prudent choice at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And a Yellow Alert is??? Inquiring minds want to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what a very cold, widespread outbreak. it covers the whole North American continent, we almost never see this, yet the models have been showing this a while, so chances are its coming. Only Florida may escape. By day 9 and 10, the deep vortex coming into Hudson Bay is 486dm it looks like, maybe off the register actually, its hard to tell, but its also very large, so theres no shortage of cold air on our side of the Globe. I don't know if that makes it to us, but we'll still be pretty cold even without it. The only thing to say about early next week is that its messy and I have no idea how it will play out. That's what I've been in awe about the last few days. The gfs and euro both show this and it's pretty remarkable to see the entire continent in the cold...even florida won't be warm by their standards. I just hope it's not so cold that there is not much chance for meaningful precipitation...except along the gulf coast which could end up getting a rare snowfall at some point. This run of the gfs certainly implies that..although prior runs did have a shot or two of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yea with so many systems coming in one right after the other it's hard to imagine what will happen and it's understood why the GFS could be having issues. Anyone's guess at this point. Wouldn't that be something if we could get snow on Wed. night, Friday night and then Sunday night? Dude...the maps that have been posted from 1-23-2003 are so strikingly similar to the set up tomorrow. Ask QCWx...I THINK that storm was one of his all time fav's! Back on subject...the timing of all these waves are hard for the models to pick up on, so really we are left scratching our heads for another run or two. Thats my opinion. I am biting nails to see what the EURO has to say. I hope it is not an but a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That's what I've been in awe about the last few days. The gfs and euro both show this and it's pretty remarkable to see the entire continent in the cold...even florida won't be warm by their standards. I just hope it's not so cold that there is not much chance for meaningful precipitation...except along the gulf coast which could end up getting a rare snowfall at some point. This run of the gfs certainly implies that..although prior runs did have a shot or two of something. if this cold were to pan out, i would be a bit more concerned about precip here as that would most certainly suppress and keep anything south of us with that huge dome of cold air. what would be better would be to get some snow and then have the deep freeze move in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just hope we don't get a repeat of last year and have the coldest January ever and only one good snow to show for it. So much wasted potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If I'm understanding correctly, there might still be a SW flow over the cold air here in the SE, possibly multiple light snow events even with the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That's what I've been in awe about the last few days. The gfs and euro both show this and it's pretty remarkable to see the entire continent in the cold...even florida won't be warm by their standards. I just hope it's not so cold that there is not much chance for meaningful precipitation...except along the gulf coast which could end up getting a rare snowfall at some point. This run of the gfs certainly implies that..although prior runs did have a shot or two of something. if this cold were to pan out, i would be a bit more concerned about precip here as that would most certainly suppress and keep anything south of us with that huge dome of cold air. what would be better would be to get some snow and then have the deep freeze move in I don't know which system will do it, but at some point a shortwave rounding the sharp ridge out west may reach lower Texas or the Gulf, and with the High pressure so far away, I think the Southeast will benefit from an overrunning snow. And ice. It may be confined mostly to the Gulf, or not. Its so far away, but the overal flow supports something precip-wise into the Southeast beyond 7 days. Just comparing some good past snows, there's usually blocking in Alaska or western Canada, and a flow generally like whats shown on both Euro and GFS. But it doesn't guarantee it, just that the option is conducive, even though the models don't show it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The GFS is signaling ice storm to me at 162+ hrs out for at least the upper SE. That's pretty good wedging being modeled that far out. I would not be surprised at all to see more of a cold air feed develop in the modeling as we advance closer, as well as a more southerly track of the low. We'll see, but I think issuing a Yellow Alert is the prudent choice at this time. Yeah, was looking at the Dec 2002 ice storm that crippled NC and this setup looks similar (atleast to me). Someone was just commenting on the board on how long it's been since we have had an ice storm. I sure hope we don't get something like that, I would rather have a cold rain than have to deal with that madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just hope we don't get a repeat of last year and have the coldest January ever and only one good snow to show for it. So much wasted potential. DC leads the league in wasted cold air. You have no idea dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Three days ago that moisture tomorrow night was barely up to me and giving me ice according to bufkit. Now it is up to NeGa and beyond and giving him a chance for ice. I think the suppression shown by the goofy is usually overdone and I always figure it moving further north when I see it out in goofyland. As long as it shows moisture moving south of me I figure I have a chance to be in it when it actually arrives. Looks like a number of chances coming, and we could score on one at least....but just in case, I'm doing an anti zrain dance. NeGa can have all of that, lol. Anyone who wasn't in Atl in 73 can have all the zrain they care to relieve me of. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And a Yellow Alert is??? Inquiring minds want to know! Haha! Nothing really. But if I had to put a parameter around it, I'd say there's at least a 40 percent chance of a major winter storm during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 DC leads the league in wasted cold air. You have no idea dude After the bonanza in DC last year, DC has no standing to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 DC leads the league in wasted cold air. You have no idea dude That is to funny, your reverse logic of stating stuff like that isn't going to make it snow more, DC will get it's snow this year, it always does. DC has had more snow in the past 12 months than RDU has had in the past 20 years. Chew on that awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, was looking at the Dec 2002 ice storm that crippled NC and this setup looks similar (atleast to me). Someone was just commenting on the board on how long it's been since we have had an ice storm. I sure hope we don't get something like that, I would rather have a cold rain than have to deal with that madness. Cold Rain. Indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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