K4CF Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Allan's link will not open for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Since the NOGAPS is being thrown out there,does it have a warm or cold bias??? anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Look at the 700mb omega at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Interesting..... the in-house RPM really caught on to it with its most recent run. Looks very much like the 12z NAM with snow rolling in tomorrow evening. one thing i have noticed this year, is that several of the inhouse RPMs have done quite well a day or so out. my question is do you use the same one as others, or are the inhouse RPMs different for each location? the one james spann uses did pretty well a day before the christmas event, and it picked up on the very light icing event we had a few weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Since the NOGAPS is being thrown out there,does it have a warm or cold bias??? anyone? In my experience, it usually has a WRONG bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I still think we need to keep our eye on the late Weds/early Thursday system. With the http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_048l.gif Foothills or some other pros...if you have a lee trough and a longwave rounding the souther apps, then there is always the possibliity of an ULL? The above 0Z run of the NAM at hr 48 looks interesting to me. We could very well be surprised with a dusting while looking at the longer range... Umm...the 12Z NAM 01-04 run is looking more tasty for some wintry weather. I alluded to this possibility last night. It wil interesting to see what the other models have to say about this. We are so focused on the long range, that a decent system may be unfolding before our eyes for the Carolinas... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_036l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_042l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Umm...the 12Z NAM 01-04 run is looking more tasty for some wintry weather. I alluded to this possibility last night. It wil interesting to see what the other models have to say about this. We are so focused on the long range, that a decent system may be unfolding before our eyes for the Carolinas... http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_036l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_042l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_048l.gif I know. Wake up to the gift under our noses right now, people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know. Wake up to the gift under our noses right now, people! Heck yeah! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_850_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Umm...the 12Z NAM 01-04 run is looking more tasty for some wintry weather. I alluded to this possibility last night. It wil interesting to see what the other models have to say about this. We are so focused on the long range, that a decent system may be unfolding before our eyes for the Carolinas... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_036l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_042l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_048l.gif jeesh why does stuff like this have to pop up when i am busy lol? looks like there could even be some frozen precip in ne ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z GFS to 24 doesn't look like much change from 06z, next few frames will be key here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Heck yeah! http://www.nco.ncep....am_850_042l.gif so far the GFS is still not there with the NAM but trending that Way. The RUC seems to be heading the way of the NAM so that will be the model to start watching. The GFS also is slightly warmer, with 0 getting down to right around the highway 74 region tomorrow night, close call, even if there were precip. It has .10" west of the Apps, and only trace amounts east of the Apps though. But its 5H seems to support more precip shown, so this could swing either way. Sometimes these types of events can overperform, or act in ways unknown just 24 hours out, since its so close. I think it will come down to moisture amounts here in southern NC...if we get the good rates, probably a rain to snow (or mostly snow) scenario, if the rates are light then sprinkles. The Euro was colder a bit for this area though, either way though we always have little to zero room for temps errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm keeping my excitement as low as possible for tomorrow night. Altough some of our best storms around here happen suddenly they most often bust than overperform. However I'm very excited about the next couple of weeks... I think a lot of us will make out like bandits.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS at 36 is a bit more north with light precip and temps right on the line on the NC,SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hmmm the 12z GFS is trying, but looks like just a light event. It could be trending towards the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hmmm the 12z is trying, but looks like just a light event. It could be trending towards the NAM though. Burger, you and I know what WILL happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Burger, you and I know what WILL happen. haha 33 and heavy rain? I feel like the NAM is probably right at this point given the GFS run. The Euro should really be interesting this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The map looks very similar to Channel 12's in house model Austin Caviness was showing this morning. It looked like the moisture was coming in between 2 and 5 am which could impact the morning commute and school systems. don't look now, but the the new NAM is spitting out qpf across NC tomorrow night, albeit light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 looks too warm for me on both the NAM and GFS. Was'nt expecting anything anyway. Maybe you NC people can score a suprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Probably should be looking at the RUC at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 In my experience, it usually has a WRONG bias. Agreed, but it does look tasty with the Friday polar clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 so far the GFS is still not there with the NAM but trending that Way. The RUC seems to be heading the way of the NAM so that will be the model to start watching. The GFS also is slightly warmer, with 0 getting down to right around the highway 74 region tomorrow night, close call, even if there were precip. It has .10" west of the Apps, and only trace amounts east of the Apps though. But its 5H seems to support more precip shown, so this could swing either way. Sometimes these types of events can overperform, or act in ways unknown just 24 hours out, since its so close. I think it will come down to moisture amounts here in southern NC...if we get the good rates, probably a rain to snow (or mostly snow) scenario, if the rates are light then sprinkles. The Euro was colder a bit for this area though, either way though we always have little to zero room for temps errors. Robert, I AM NOT saying that this will be big by any stretch and I agree with your thoughts, with all the information in front of us. However, in the past decent snows (or at least wintry mix scenarios) for our area, I remember always seeing the NAM temp profile and the GFS qpf verifying more times than none in the short range for these type of events. Just a food for thought I guess... Thanks for all your input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 one thing i have noticed this year, is that several of the inhouse RPMs have done quite well a day or so out. my question is do you use the same one as others, or are the inhouse RPMs different for each location? the one james spann uses did pretty well a day before the christmas event, and it picked up on the very light icing event we had a few weeks ago I havent been following the in house local models to much lately but I do know they did not do very well at all with the Christmas Day Storm. In fact pretty much everyone I saw including our In house model all showed snow showers yes from the NW disturbance but only was printing out a dusting to a couple inches in the Mtns only because there was NO gulf moisture being shown or indicated. Our model finally picked up on this that Friday only because we were runnnig it off the NAM which obviously the NAM and GFS were increasing QPF and picking up on the trend during the day Friday. Just my observation on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I havent been following the in house local models to much lately but I do know they did not do very well at all with the Christmas Day Storm. In fact pretty much everyone I saw including our In house model all showed snow showers yes from the NW disturbance but only was printing out a dusting to a couple inches in the Mtns only because there was NO gulf moisture being shown or indicated. Our model finally picked up on this that Friday only because we were runnnig it off the NAM which obviously the NAM and GFS were increasing QPF and picking up on the trend during the day Friday. Just my observation on that storm. thanks - is your in house the same as the other inhouse ones, or are they different? the one i saw for christmas was in alabama, but showed ga and looked pretty good. although i will admit that i just like to see frozen precip, so if it showed a dusting and we got more i wouldnt really have cared lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Robert, I AM NOT saying that this will be big by any stretch and I agree with your thoughts, with all the information in front of us. However, in the past decent snows (or at least wintry mix scenarios) for our area, I remember always seeing the NAM temp profile and the GFS qpf verifying more times than none in the short range for these type of events. Just a food for thought I guess... Thanks for all your input! Looks like the GFS is TRYING to catch up with the NAM. Tonights runs will be interesting for this and the future potential. Sheesh...here we go again! Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hmmm the 12z GFS is trying, but looks like just a light event. It could be trending towards the NAM though. Almost never see that happen so the jury is still out with the NAM IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The northern wave looks sharper-more defined. Friday-Sat should be interesting also. Nickel and dime... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Decent looking radar and jet streak on the NAM for the Friday clipper. Would like to see a stronger 500mb vort max, but this has potential for a light snow and maybe a few surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Per the 12z NAM it has nice Omega over far NE GA at 21z Thursday that would likely be snow. GFS looks too warm so it's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Per the 12z NAM it has nice Omega over far NE GA at 21z Thursday that would likely be snow. GFS looks too warm so it's going to be close. of course it is, when isnt it (in ga, anyway) lol this is what is driving me crazy, its close enough to pay attention and have some hope but also one that will probably be 32.5 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol GFS with that clipper says snow hole for CLT and points west banking the mountains. Gotta love seeing that. Otherwise it looks good for everyone else in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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