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January 2011


BullCityWx

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For those interested, RAH mentioned Jan 19, 2005 and the similarities with our Friday system in their AFD this AM. Here are the charts from 21z on that day.

011921png.gif

Here is the accumulation map from that event.

accum20050119.gif

While there are some differences, there are similarities as well. A scenario like that is within the realm of possibility.

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ANY SEMBLANCE OF MODEL AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AFTER THAT.MODELS ARE HAVING A NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE TIMING

OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE

GREAT LAKES. THROW IN AN EJECTING SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW...ANOTHER

TYPICAL MODEL PROBLEM SPOT...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE GETS EVEN

LOWER. THAT'S TOO BAD TOO...BECAUSE THE MODELS WERE SO CLOSE JUST

24 HOURS AGO.

WHAT WE ARE PRETTY SURE OF IS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED

WEATHER SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SOUTHWEST

UPPER LOW. BUT THE GULF LOW WINTER WEATHER PRODUCING SCENARIO IS

NOW IN QUESTION. ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS FARTHER NORTH

THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WHICH IMPLIES A WARMER PASSAGE. AND WHILE

THE GFS DOES FORM SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS UPPER

LEVEL FEATURE...IT WAITS UNTIL A FOLLOW-UP UPPER LOW DROPS IN FROM

THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO FORM THE COMPLEX SURFACE

LOW/TROUGH PATTERN. GIVEN THE COMPLETELY MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE

MODELS...I'VE DECIDED TO JUST PUNT AND BASICALLY CONTINUE WITH THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST -- WHICH LEAVES THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ON THE

TABLE FOR NOW...BUT WITH ADMITTEDLY VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

OH...AND IT MAY GET REALLY COLD NEXT WEEK TOO.

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For those interested, RAH mentioned Jan 19, 2005 and the similarities with our Friday system in their AFD this AM. Here are the charts from 21z on that day.

011921png.gif

Here is the accumulation map from that event.

accum20050119.gif

While there are some differences, there are similarities as well. A scenario like that is within the realm of possibility.

Ahh yes who can forget the infamous 1/2 inch disaster.

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That is funny stuff right there! :lol:

Just shows you the frustration level of looking at 4+ models and having a rainbow of solutions to pick from. I expect waffling back the other way today... reminds me of an old 80's movie when computers were just coming out... "... can not compute! Can not compute!..." Then the smoke just rolls out of the back of the computer. I think that is what hte GFS does every 6 hours. :pimp:

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I see model madness has begun..lol I'm surprised CAE has even mentioned the possibility :lol:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT

LAKES REGION TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE

CENTER OF THE NATION WILL DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR WARM FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED

PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30

PERCENT. WEDGE RIDGING MAY MAINTAIN COLD TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY

IS HIGH CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

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I expect we will start to see more consensus on the Sunday event soon, maybe today. The Euro looked a little too fast, going from southern Cal. to Texas and then the Carolinas in just 2 days. I still think this could be a 2 part event, which could be more like 1 long event, with warm advection snow and ice breaking out from Arkansas across Tenn, nrn Ala, GA and the Carolinas eventually by later Sunday into early Monday. The shortwave/ULL is still progged to be fairly strong and with the Northeast system getting out of the way, it should easily make room for our southern system to remain in tact, but slowly dying out. However the qpf looks too light, I never trust it anyway, but could see several inches of snow in the aforementioned areas, and a transistion zone to mix or ice below it. For western SC, this may be a better snow than the Christmas/Dec 26 event since warm advection and a non-well developed system is whats needed there to preclude dryslotting issues that always end up there, same for the 74 strip in lower NC.

As that is waning, new digging could easily develop another area of overrunning quickly from Ok/Tex and spread due east, even without much surface low development. Thats how I see this playing out, but I'm not sure. Its hard to read the models and interpret what they're saying but I'd be quick to say don't go by the exact qpf or setup verbatim, its safer to go by the transitioning pattern, and that makes it tough since this one is harder and is evolving even more than the Christmas system. It could be full of good things with a really snowy/icy scenario for the southern third of the Country, and to be honest the arrows point especially to the Southeast and Tenn Valley for a while yet.

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I guess I should have posted this in this thread instead of the Jan 9 to 14 threat one. Seems everyone is talking about in here anyway.

I am very interested to see what RaleighWX has to say today. He seemed pretty confident about early next week in his blog post yesterday.

I think there is a good chance of a significant winter storm in the 1/10-1/13 period. Right now the model seem to be zeroing in on the 1/10-1/11 time frame. This is the time frame I have been going with since last week. There is still considerable spread among the ensemble members on the exact timing, which is related to when they kick out the southwest upper low. However, I am bullish on this time frame.
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Ahh yes who can forget the infamous 1/2 inch disaster.

Yes, the 1/2 inch of snow that led to disaster on the roads in Raleigh.

Here's some good video from that day.

http://raleighskyline.com/content/2006/11/21/the-half-inch-of-snow-that-paralyzed-raleigh/

And here is a case study from NC State.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050119/

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Surface depictions are going to be all over the place for the next couple of days (maybe longer). The pattern seems headed toward potential fun and games in the southeast and maybe a historic cold shot to boot.

When you think about it, that's pretty amazing since most forecasts from just one month ago had a lot of the nation, east of the Rockies, turning warm and pinning hopes on winter coming back in late Feb to the beginning of March.

With all that in mind, I hope no matter what this yields, everyone can sit back and enjoy the ride.

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I expect we will start to see more consensus on the Sunday event soon, maybe today. The Euro looked a little too fast, going from southern Cal. to Texas and then the Carolinas in just 2 days. I still think this could be a 2 part event, which could be more like 1 long event, with warm advection snow and ice breaking out from Arkansas across Tenn, nrn Ala, GA and the Carolinas eventually by later Sunday into early Monday. The shortwave/ULL is still progged to be fairly strong and with the Northeast system getting out of the way, it should easily make room for our southern system to remain in tact, but slowly dying out. However the qpf looks too light, I never trust it anyway, but could see several inches of snow in the aforementioned areas, and a transistion zone to mix or ice below it. For western SC, this may be a better snow than the Christmas/Dec 26 event since warm advection and a non-well developed system is whats needed there to preclude dryslotting issues that always end up there, same for the 74 strip in lower NC.

As that is waning, new digging could easily develop another area of overrunning quickly from Ok/Tex and spread due east, even without much surface low development. Thats how I see this playing out, but I'm not sure. Its hard to read the models and interpret what they're saying but I'd be quick to say don't go by the exact qpf or setup verbatim, its safer to go by the transitioning pattern, and that makes it tough since this one is harder and is evolving even more than the Christmas system. It could be full of good things with a really snowy/icy scenario for the southern third of the Country, and to be honest the arrows point especially to the Southeast and Tenn Valley for a while yet.

I'm going to guess they don't start really catching on until around Wed. night or Thursday afternoon. Seems like a very difficult setup for them to handle (I know it's been said a billion times). Anyways I sure hope your right I need a new reason to try out those winter boots scooter.gif.

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12z NAM is north with the first overrunning event at 36hrs, and attempting to paint NE GA white, as well as the upstate of SC and the southern foothills.

nam_ref_036s.gif

nam_pcp_036s.gif

Taking this convoluted pattern one event at a time... Figured this was the best course going forward as no sig discernible threats are on the horizon, thus forcing a nickel and dime approach with the hopes of squeezing out a couple tenths in the Thurs-Fri period.

:unsure:

nam_pcp_048s.gif

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Yes, the 1/2 inch of snow that led to disaster on the roads in Raleigh.

Here's some good video from that day.

http://raleighskylin...alyzed-raleigh/

And here is a case study from NC State.

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20050119/

For only one half inch of snow, it sure did totally coat and encase the roads and grass well.

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Looking warm on this image but the lows are starting to look good, 997 sitting east of the Rockies, I'm assuming this is the one to follow the first system?

That is actually the third "potential" event in the pike... First one is the overrunning, which was-is currently forecasted to stay to the south, although the 12z NAM and Matt's RPM are saying not so fast. Second event is the NW flow scheduled for the Thurs-Fri period, and the new NAM again says, it could get interesting. Third event is the southern stream cutoff, and potential GOM low. That is scheduled for late weekend, early next week if it materializes. And fourth on the list is whatever northern stream piece we get middle-latter part of next week.

0z NOGAP (nice!)

00znogaps850mbTSLPp12096.gif

12z NAM (H5 looks much better than previous runs for Friday)

nam_500_066s.gif

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Looks like the NAM is the first to begin showing the system tomorrow night. The southwest systems are never safe, so I was cautious a few days ago when the models were "close" now we'll have to get more support before seeing if the moisture makes it this far north. Already, it has better sw flow at 5H and a sharper shortwave, we'll soon see this show up on water vapor, which haven't had time to look at yet. I will say the west to east runners are/have been a good snow hit for my area in a few Winters past, as opposed to well developed Gulf lows. The Euro has been off and on with it , but this NAM is much stronger than any model so far.

It also has a very strong Clipper which now makes me wonder for the lee areas Friday. That is severe digging and divergence, theres only a few times we've had accumulating snows in the immediate downslope zone from clippers, and this is how it usually occurred. Its also similar to the Euro a few days ago with bringing down the extreme cold lobe. We'll see.

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For only one half inch of snow, it sure did totally coat and encase the roads and grass well.

Sounds similar to the early January system that "dumped" 1/2-1" across the Atlanta metro last year. It was during the historic cold snap, and with ground temps well below freezing it stuck to the pavement easily. Temps the next day didn't hit 20 IMBY (well our high was at midnight, in the low 20s) and roads remained icy for quite a while-I couldn't get off of my steep street for two days. It really shows how helpless much of the SE is when snow actually sticks to the roads. I remember some school systems not only got that Friday off, but also Monday and Tuesday!

Back on topic...I'm looking forward to the extreme cold almost as much as I'm hoping for snow/ice. Yeah it's expensive on our bills, but I have a feeling we'll make up for it in February...when was the last time all 3 months of winter were below normal in a moderate/strong Nina?

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