BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Here's the best thing I've seen tonight: this goes negative: and this goes positive: You can bet your last dollar if the NAO does spike positive with the PNA negative in the mid term, you aint going to get anything around here but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yea this run is showing one of the other possibilities...and thats the Rockies system is too far north and amplfies enough to bring in warm air and rain for the Southeast. One thing on this run doesn't look right is that good looking trough in Texas suddenly dying so quickly as it moves into the Southeast. This run also looks a lot different from the 12Z ECMWF. 300mb map backs up the idea of weakening / lifting the Texas wave (jet streak on east side of trough) and strengthening / digging the wave over the northern Rockies (jet streak on west side of trough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 And of course, the GFS has a long range day after tomorrow kinda storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And of course, the GFS has a long range day after tomorrow kinda storm. Wow O.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And of course, the GFS has a long range day after tomorrow kinda storm. Lol it shouldn't even be allowed to go that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, that isn't your imagination as that is, indeed, a major snow for far north Ga. on 1/16 ***fwiw*** per the 0z tue gfs. Night night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LMAO! :lightning: edit: would be a hell of a ride though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Great previous post btw on the nao and pna supporting RN in and around the 7 day... 0z Canadian has a 994mb low centered over north-central TX @ 120hrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, that isn't your imagination. As depicted on the 0z tue gfs, that is, indeed, a minor but prolonged ZR for much of NGA for 1/9-10 as far south as at about Tony's abode **fwiw.*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Great previous post btw on the nao and pna supporting RN in and around the 7 day... 0z Canadian has a 994mb low centered over north-central TX @ 120hrs . Thanks man. I honestly am excited about the pattern as we head into mid month...I'm just trying to dampen my expectations until we get the pattern setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 And at least in this part of the state, the GFS isnt too far from an icing situation for next week as almost the entire area hovers right around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, that isn't your imagination. As depicted, that is a minor but prolonged ZR for much of NGA for 1/9-10 **fwiw.*** **fwiw*** I am seeing a good bit of WAA associated with lp in the southern plains which would quickly scour out any surface cold given 1024mb pressures attempting to nose through the OH Valley, which given the orientation, is less than ideal for a lee side damning event imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 **fwiw*** I am seeing a good bit of WAA associated with lp in the southern plains which would quickly scour out any surface cold given 1024mb pressures attempting to nose through the OH Valley, which given the orientation, is less than ideal for a lee side damning event imo. Point taken, but fwiw, the Meteostar output has much of ATL-AHN areas getting light qpf with temps at or just below 32 F during 1/9-10 along with low single number 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I still wouldn't get too wrapped up in details.... this is a pretty complicated setup that will take multiple days to resolve. It would be nice to see the first s/w trend as the more dominant feature, but that isn't very likely since the 500mb low that is exiting is simply too far south to allow the southern stream s/w to amplify. Unfortunately, the strong 500mb low manages to dissolve just in time for the stronger more northern stream s/w to amplify too far west, putting most folks in the SE in the warm section after an initial bout of freezing rain/sleet. There is some CAD, but its not overly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Folks, that isn't your imagination as that is, indeed, a major snow for far north Ga. on 1/16 ***fwiw*** per the 0z tue gfs. Night night. But only if you don't sleep between now and then. Did you hear me? Hello??? Damn, he messed up another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Taken literally, tonight's CMC would support light snow on Sunday for parts of TN, NE GA, SC Upstate, W and C NC before warm air moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Taken literally, tonight's CMC would support light snow on Sunday for parts of TN, NE GA, SC Upstate, W and C NC before warm air moves in. Even if you look at the GFS, I honestly wouldnt be surprised to see a quick SN to IP to ZR/RN(depending on where you wetbulb) scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 00Z Euro not great for frozen precip, weak CAD, low goes pretty far north. Not sure I buy it, this is the third pretty big change in a row for this model, that does lend to confidence in its solution. Models really having trouble with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 00Z Euro not great for frozen precip, weak CAD, low goes pretty far north. Not sure I buy it, this is the third pretty big change in a row for this model, that does lend to confidence in its solution. Models really having trouble with this pattern. I'm kinda surprised it looks like a snowish solution on the extracted data for here...doesnt make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 In fact, the euro might be good for a coating of snow(.5-1") across most of NC/Northern Upstate SC before it changes over to something other than snow. 850's are definitely colder than the GFS and the precip is faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm kinda surprised it looks like a snowish solution on the extracted data for here...doesnt make much sense. Does have better chance up your way, just not in GA. As I said above, do not trust it anyway, too much inconsistency right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does have better chance up your way, just not in GA. As I said above, do not trust it anyway, too much inconsistency right now. The GFS is way slower than the Euro, thats probably why there's a difference here(to my untrained eye)...it would appear that there's several weak lows that pass through on the euro as there's QPF at the end of the extracted data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro also potentially gives BNA an inch or two of snow(possibly IP?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro also potentially gives BNA an inch or two of snow(possibly IP?). BNA? BNA? Did I see or read something in the SOUTHEAST forum other than what might happen in South or North Carolina? Wait a second, where is my Sharpie, I need to circle the date on the calendar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 RAH has a good discussion this morning concerning the potential event on Friday: THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...SWINGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL NC 12-18Z FRI...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A 12-HR (06-18Z) H5 HEIGHT FALL MAXIMA OF 140 METERS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC. AS A RESULT...THE GFS GENERATES 0.05-0.10" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE CANADIAN. THE ECMWF (AND THE LAST AVAILABLE FORECAST FROM THE NAM - GOING THROUGH 12Z FRI) SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAKER AND LESS FOCUSED THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN...WITH LITTLE OR NOTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC FRI. THIS IS ESPECIALLY PROBLEMATIC CONSIDERING THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SOLIDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW (ACTUALLY NEAR THE INDETERMINATE PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM - MEANING COLD ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A VERY SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE GROUND)...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID WATER RATIOS...AROUND 15:1 TO 20:1. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY...HOWEVER...IF THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE ON TO SOMETHING...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A NUISANCE WINTER WEATHER EVENT DURING THE DAY FRI. IN FACT...THIS SETUP IS VERY REMINISCENT OF THE INFAMOUS `JANUARY 19 2005 EVENT`. WILL SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S (N/NW) TO LOWER/MID 40S (S/SE). EXPECT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT... WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 6z GFS has shifted south again with the low. This would pprovide many more people snow/ice; a big hit for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 6z GFS has shifted south again with the low. This would pprovide many more people snow/ice; a big hit for eastern NC. yep...the longer range pattern on the 6Z is also unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yep...the longer range pattern on the 6Z is also unreal. Polar vortex gets trapped by the massive -NAO/-EPO/-AO block and gets forced down towards Hudson Bay, bringing brutally cold weather into the CONUS. Snowing in southern Arizona and New Mexico with -30C 850mb temperatures knocking on Minnesota's door. Almost everyone in the country is WAY below average in this pattern, and this would devastate the citrus growers in southern Texas as well as bringing the potential for more freezes to Florida if a coastal storm amplifies and a front gets through with the PV's cold air behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 S NELSON used to post on Eastern, but I am not sure who wrote it. He admitted last year publically that their office was behind the curve, but that they were starting to catch up. In the last 3 weeks I have been impressed with the FFC stepping outside their box so to speak. I know... I know.. they still play the conservative card, but discos like this are very good. My argument for years have been, they are disco's. How many people besides us weather weenies are going to read them? Its almost like the opinion page of a newspaper. Tell us what you think.. don't copy and paste the last shift's disco. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: I sent an email to one of the guys there a couple of weeks ago asking them to give us more detail in their AFD's, he was actually sending it on to Steve. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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