Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 2011


BullCityWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

NOt sure if anyone saw, but 12z GGEM was a big ice/mixed storm for NC. 2m T stayed below freezing for the entire event 156-180

I saw it. As depicted by the 12Z GGEM, that is very likely a major ZR/IP for N GA down as far south as Tony's abode on 1/9.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big difference at 12z and 00z around Sunday, the low is more north and quicker. This run should be interesting.

I agree burger. It also looks to me a lot of the energy is starting to transfer to the 2nd wave at hr 126. I don' t know what that will mean later in the run but this is a lot different than 12z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree burger. It also looks to me a lot of the energy is starting to transfer to the 2nd wave at hr 126. I don' t know what that will mean later in the run but this is a lot different than 12z.

Yea it is, yet again the models spit out a totally different run @150 everything is just kind of dying out.arrowheadsmiley.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I'm right, 0z GFS by hr. 90 tries to spread some light flurries throughout NC and parts of Eastern TN.

most of NC could see a nice little inch on friday

Downslope areas would get skipped, which is basically normal in this setup. There is a lot of vort energy so the mtns and Tenn should get some snow showers, and again east of the mountains , after skipping the foothills, esp. the southern Foothills and western piedmont, which is in a notoriously bad spot for NW flow precip.

post-38-0-44390600-1294114884.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yea this run is showing one of the other possibilities...and thats the Rockies system is too far north and amplfies enough to bring in warm air and rain for the Southeast. One thing on this run doesn't look right is that good looking trough in Texas suddenly dying so quickly as it moves into the Southeast. This run also looks a lot different from the 12Z ECMWF.

post-38-0-15980200-1294115346.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure I'm following some of the developments of the day very well.....or maybe it's some of the latest comments. But earlier today, everybody was excited about the wonderful upcoming pattern that has the potential to feature numerous snow and ice threats. Now, all of a sudden, this evening, there seems to be a great deal of concern for inland runners and Lakes cutters. We might get a little event followed by a more significant ice event or vice versa or even all rain. Should we be bullish on the pattern or just ho hum? I just want to make sure I'm in lock step with the rest of my SE crew here on how I should be feeling. :guitar:

Not really a paradigm shift today on an inland runner (thinking middle of the country, west of the MS) as several of the GFS and GGEM members have been showing such a solution for the past couple days. Given the orientation of our AK block purging into CONUS coupled with a retreating 50-50 towards the open N ATL, this solution is very much on the table imo, if not likely in the 7-8 day given the ens mean synoptic setup. I agree, as do most others that the overall pattern looks good, but discerning any sig winter wx event in the period is next to impossible, and that is somewhat disheartening. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...