Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Watch that first step, its a DOSEY! Such a great movie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NOt sure if anyone saw, but 12z GGEM was a big ice/mixed storm for NC. 2m T stayed below freezing for the entire event 156-180 I saw it. As depicted by the 12Z GGEM, that is very likely a major ZR/IP for N GA down as far south as Tony's abode on 1/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Where do y'all get the GGEM out to 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Please tell me that (amirite) is a Needle Nose Ned, Ned the Head reference from the movie Groundhog Day! If you have no idea what I'm talking about, sorry bout that. Just ignore me. Bahahaha, I love that movie. You caught it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Where do y'all get the GGEM out to 180? PSU ewall site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Where do y'all get the GGEM out to 180? Good question ! Far as I can get it is 144 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Where do y'all get the GGEM out to 180? You can get it on penn state's model page. Google "psu e wall" if you don't have it bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If I'm right, 0z GFS by hr. 90 tries to spread some light flurries throughout NC and parts of Eastern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thoughts on next 10 days. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-charlotte/long-term-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 most of NC could see a nice little inch on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well where about to find out whats gonna happen with our sw system on this run of the gfs. Out to 90 and its finally starting to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Big difference at 12z and 00z around Sunday, the low is more north and quicker. This run should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Is it just me or our low a little further north @ 108 and a little further west than the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 @141 it's suppressing our low...but there is some energy to the north that could get us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Big difference at 12z and 00z around Sunday, the low is more north and quicker. This run should be interesting. I agree burger. It also looks to me a lot of the energy is starting to transfer to the 2nd wave at hr 126. I don' t know what that will mean later in the run but this is a lot different than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thoughts on next 10 days. http://www.examiner....g-term-forecast Good read as always Brandon Keep em' coming I enjoy reading and appreciate your thoughts............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I agree burger. It also looks to me a lot of the energy is starting to transfer to the 2nd wave at hr 126. I don' t know what that will mean later in the run but this is a lot different than 12z. Yea it is, yet again the models spit out a totally different run @150 everything is just kind of dying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If I'm right, 0z GFS by hr. 90 tries to spread some light flurries throughout NC and parts of Eastern TN. most of NC could see a nice little inch on friday Downslope areas would get skipped, which is basically normal in this setup. There is a lot of vort energy so the mtns and Tenn should get some snow showers, and again east of the mountains , after skipping the foothills, esp. the southern Foothills and western piedmont, which is in a notoriously bad spot for NW flow precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yea it is, yet again the models spit out a totally different run @150 everything is just kind of dying out. Yep and we are left w/ the 2nd wave. We'll see if the gfs throws another bomb out there around hr 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS looks ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At hour 120 the gFS just spazes out with everything out in the SW. Craziest looking thing Ive seen thus far with how it splits the SW low up like a pie on the 500 charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS looks ugly! Yea @168 temps are way to warm for us....maybe a red tagger will see something different but this run looks like a disaster to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Gfs has a closed 500 low on the NE/KS line around hr 171. Thats why our temps are shooting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well I've seen all I need to see. Hopefully the Euro has yet another wild swing but this time in our direction. Off to bed for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yea this run is showing one of the other possibilities...and thats the Rockies system is too far north and amplfies enough to bring in warm air and rain for the Southeast. One thing on this run doesn't look right is that good looking trough in Texas suddenly dying so quickly as it moves into the Southeast. This run also looks a lot different from the 12Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not sure I'm following some of the developments of the day very well.....or maybe it's some of the latest comments. But earlier today, everybody was excited about the wonderful upcoming pattern that has the potential to feature numerous snow and ice threats. Now, all of a sudden, this evening, there seems to be a great deal of concern for inland runners and Lakes cutters. We might get a little event followed by a more significant ice event or vice versa or even all rain. Should we be bullish on the pattern or just ho hum? I just want to make sure I'm in lock step with the rest of my SE crew here on how I should be feeling. Not really a paradigm shift today on an inland runner (thinking middle of the country, west of the MS) as several of the GFS and GGEM members have been showing such a solution for the past couple days. Given the orientation of our AK block purging into CONUS coupled with a retreating 50-50 towards the open N ATL, this solution is very much on the table imo, if not likely in the 7-8 day given the ens mean synoptic setup. I agree, as do most others that the overall pattern looks good, but discerning any sig winter wx event in the period is next to impossible, and that is somewhat disheartening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run isnt anything a significant number of 18z ensemble members werent adamant about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good read as always Brandon Keep em' coming I enjoy reading and appreciate your thoughts............ Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 That isnt even to mention the cold is looking weaker and weaker and weaker with each successive run. The euro has a very, very run of the mill cold shot and the GFS isnt anything too impressive either. This pattern may bear fruit 10 days from now but I wouldnt expect any to fall off the tree before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like Saturday will be a super day for skiing in Avery County. Come on up for some downhill. Some of the favored cross country areas could have ground coverage issues until later during day on Saturday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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