ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Here is the 18Z DGEX still paints snow along and north of a JAN-BMX-FFC-CAE line then north towards GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Taken literally, maybe, but that 1040 HP over Lake Superior argues for much more than a nuisance event. It does weaken all the way to 1032 as the event is winding down, but it's not in a bad spot to supply plenty of cold, dry air throughout the event. That's not taking the model literally, though. If that High is there, I doubt we'd have plain rain, at least in much of NC, and probably a nice chunk of upstate SC too. I also wouldn't see the surface low traversing the NC Piedmont either. See, at 192 you can see the wedging down east of the Apps. I haven't looked at surface temps, but if that type of wedging is there, we'll be below freezing. But, it's the 192 hr 18Z GFS. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it one way or the other. It seems like this threat has been at 192 hrs for 192 hrs now. Once it moves into the 3 day window, then I think we'll know what we've got. Regardless, there looks to be plenty of cold nearby, though. We'll have to see if it gets tapped correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 All we need to know right now.... But, it's the 192 hr 18Z GFS. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 All we need to know right now.... Snow shields are activated again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I was born on January 25. I lived in Raleigh in 2000. you aRE 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFDDeac Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Let's Roll !!! The snow piles in W-S are only 2-3' deep in the corner of our parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I see 2 big possibilities with this event. One , the Tx. low would come east or ene and dampen out, giving some snow and ice to Ala, Miss. Ga and TN before hitting the Carolinas with very little. Or some version of that, or degree, but the miss to the south is probably unlikely. I've noticed the models tend to dampen or weaken ULL too quickly, we've seen it atleast twice so far maybe more in some fashion this season. They're more tenacious than the models give credit for. The other option is that that next series of Rockies s/w will be quick to dig and capture the first one while its in the western Gulf, or maybe re-develop whats left there, on the old baroclinic zone, and then that storm would take the low road , but inland across the Southeast, with a very widespread winter storm, snow to sleet and ZR depending on where you are. Then that goes up the coast and a big arctic outbreak occurs. Neither of these might happen as well, I 'm just throwing out what I think is the most likely now. But with the longwave so far back, and the parent high being held back, and the continuous injection of Pacific systems into the Rockies, I think its likely we will get a big winter storm. Some areas anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I see 2 big possibilities with this event. One , the Tx. low would come east or ene and dampen out, giving some snow and ice to Ala, Miss. Ga and TN before hitting the Carolinas with very little. Or some version of that, or degree, but the miss to the south is probably unlikely. I've noticed the models tend to dampen or weaken ULL too quickly, we've seen it atleast twice so far maybe more in some fashion this season. They're more tenacious than the models give credit for. The other option is that that next series of Rockies s/w will be quick to dig and capture the first one while its in the western Gulf, or maybe re-develop whats left there, on the old baroclinic zone, and then that storm would take the low road , but inland across the Southeast, with a very widespread winter storm, snow to sleet and ZR depending on where you are. Then that goes up the coast and a big arctic outbreak occurs. Neither of these might happen as well, I 'm just throwing out what I think is the most likely now. But with the longwave so far back, and the parent high being held back, and the continuous injection of Pacific systems into the Rockies, I think its likely we will get a big winter storm. Some areas anyway. Robert, Thanks for this post. i mentioned the same thing ealier today and it may or may not happen, but.................this is certainly a possibility. Reminicient of times past where we'd get a light system followed by a more major system. One two punches can be very rewarding for someone and maybe a LOT of people. Wait, I just re-read your post and not what you are saying..............lol. Long day at work. I am thinking the first low that kicks leads to over-running precip and as it runs east/east northeast dies out heading into the carolinas (still producing some snow and ice for someone in the mid-south). Then what comes around behind this system digs and pops a gulf low which provides a widespread winter event for a big chunk of the mid-south and southeast...........jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Robert, Thanks for this post. i mentioned the same thing ealier today and it may or may not happen, but.................this is certainly a possibility. Reminicient of times past where we'd get a light system followed by a more major system. One two punches can be very rewarding for someone and maybe a LOT of people. Wait, I just re-read your post and not what you are saying..............lol. Long day at work. I am thinking the first low that kicks leads to over-running precip and as it runs east/east northeast dies out heading into the carolinas (still producing some snow and ice for someone in the mid-south). Then what comes around behind this system digs and pops a gulf low which provides a widespread winter event for a big chunk of the mid-south and southeast...........jmo. ha, I think thats basically what I just said. There probably will be one bigger system and one smaller system. Don't know if the lead is the bigger or the smaller yet. We really won't know much more for atleast several more runs I don't think, so tonights' models are not a lock I don't think. It would be nice to see the first system be a bigger one than shown (and I have a feeling it will be for reason above). The second system could dig enough to pumpup a ridge and produce rain in a lot of areas. Or, not dig enough and still be rain. Impossible to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Look at the temp anomalies for Wed Thur next week, it looks like we're in Canada and they're in the US! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I see 2 big possibilities with this event. One , the Tx. low would come east or ene and dampen out, giving some snow and ice to Ala, Miss. Ga and TN before hitting the Carolinas with very little. Or some version of that, or degree, but the miss to the south is probably unlikely. I've noticed the models tend to dampen or weaken ULL too quickly, we've seen it atleast twice so far maybe more in some fashion this season. They're more tenacious than the models give credit for. The other option is that that next series of Rockies s/w will be quick to dig and capture the first one while its in the western Gulf, or maybe re-develop whats left there, on the old baroclinic zone, and then that storm would take the low road , but inland across the Southeast, with a very widespread winter storm, snow to sleet and ZR depending on where you are. Then that goes up the coast and a big arctic outbreak occurs. Neither of these might happen as well, I 'm just throwing out what I think is the most likely now. But with the longwave so far back, and the parent high being held back, and the continuous injection of Pacific systems into the Rockies, I think its likely we will get a big winter storm. Some areas anyway. Is the option that I have highlighted similar to what the 18z gfs showed? I noticed on the 18z gfs the energy from the 1st wave was transfered to the 2nd wave then the big storm went up the coast. I also noticed on the 18z run it was slightly inland in NC. This would be a good setup for W. NC but the kiss of death for E. NC. Still a long ways to go w/ this one but was just curious if my thinking was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well, the ensembles are extremely ugly. 5 out of 12 show inland runners with some well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Proctor Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There will be plenty of cold air in tact. Some of the latest models seem to make this storm more of a lite icing event in NC and may it will be was to far south to impact NC. There will be the bulk of the energy from the 1/11 event cutoff back in souther cal which when it comes out along the gulf really could be the big storm of Janurary. There will be plenty of cold support air but warming the end of jan will make this one to watch.... we will have to see how things come together but with all that said Jan will be way below normal in temp. and the souther jet will become more active as well I think. NC should have several snow events this month..... 18z DGEX drops a swath of accumulating snow across MS/AL/GA with the initial wave then as that wave dampens out the the main energy swings through and gives damming regions a little bit of ice. The 18z NOGAPS is a dream scenario and burys my backyard with at least a foot of snow. It appears as though it keeps the initial wave much more intact and it goes neg tilt at the right time to really cream N. GA/upstate SC/ and all of NC. Then the backside energy phases in with it and it the low really starts cranking as it crawls up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well, the ensembles are extremely ugly. 5 out of 12 show inland runners with some well inland. EURO ensemble mean was also ugly in the same way. My concern is that the energy that comes in from the PAC NW will take over and amplify in the mid section of the country...leaving the door open for an apps or OH Valley runner. But we have a long way to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well, the ensembles are extremely ugly. 5 out of 12 show inland runners with some well inland. With the way the models have performed in this timeframe, I am keeping my glass half full. I honestly (with the way this winter has been so far with the models predicting this far out) believe we will know better tomorrow. The Christmas storm is a good example of not having a clear picture until 4 days out (cannot really remember-someone correct me on that?). Lets hope something pans out early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 EURO ensemble mean was also ugly in the same way. My concern is that the energy that comes in from the PAC NW will take over and amplify in the mid section of the country...leaving the door open for an apps or OH Valley runner. But we have a long way to go yet. Troughs centered in the nation's midsection are often characterized by OV or apps runners. Let's hope the trough pushes just a little bit east. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NOt sure if anyone saw, but 12z GGEM was a big ice/mixed storm for NC. 2m T stayed below freezing for the entire event 156-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I still think we need to keep our eye on the late Weds/early Thursday system. With the http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_048l.gif Foothills or some other pros...if you have a lee trough and a longwave rounding the souther apps, then there is always the possibliity of an ULL? The above 0Z run of the NAM at hr 48 looks interesting to me. We could very well be surprised with a dusting while looking at the longer range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NOt sure if anyone saw, but 12z GGEM was a big ice/mixed storm for NC. 2m T stayed below freezing for the entire event 156-180 I think I will stay up for the 0z runs tonight. Sheesh...I am a sucker every time! Seriously...I think we will have a better idea on how this is shaping up with the 12z runs tomorrow... Thanks for all your input Raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 EURO ensemble mean was also ugly in the same way. My concern is that the energy that comes in from the PAC NW will take over and amplify in the mid section of the country...leaving the door open for an apps or OH Valley runner. But we have a long way to go yet. Troughs centered in the nation's midsection are often characterized by OV or apps runners. Let's hope the trough pushes just a little bit east. TW But troughs centered along the east coast are subject to excessive NW flow - cold and dry. Not overly impressed with the early next week system in terms of an all snow event (ice maybe), but our best potential should lie after this system. 240 hr Euro map below is a very good look to me with the ridge just off the west coast, and extending all the way up north of Alaska. Also, there's a vortex over the NE moving toward Newfoundland, in a good position. If the ridge off the west coast was positioned further west, then I'd be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not sure I'm following some of the developments of the day very well.....or maybe it's some of the latest comments. But earlier today, everybody was excited about the wonderful upcoming pattern that has the potential to feature numerous snow and ice threats. Now, all of a sudden, this evening, there seems to be a great deal of concern for inland runners and Lakes cutters. We might get a little event followed by a more significant ice event or vice versa or even all rain. Should we be bullish on the pattern or just ho hum? I just want to make sure I'm in lock step with the rest of my SE crew here on how I should be feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A little bit confused here too. (Back in school.... kind of hard to check in on the forum during school, esp. when the Internet is down.) Pattern still looks good, amirite? At least it's not the torch everyone assumed we would have. Even though some ensembles look bad, keep in mind there seem to be storms lined up to affect us over the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not sure I'm following some of the developments of the day very well.....or maybe it's some of the latest comments. But earlier today, everybody was excited about the wonderful upcoming pattern that has the potential to feature numerous snow and ice threats. Now, all of a sudden, this evening, there seems to be a great deal of concern for inland runners and Lakes cutters. We might get a little event followed by a more significant ice event or vice versa or even all rain. Should we be bullish on the pattern or just ho hum? I just want to make sure I'm in lock step with the rest of my SE crew here on how I should be feeling. Me, too. Started on a good note and it's looking kind of somber in here right now. I'm going to take what was said this morning and keep that in mind. "Don't watch the runs too closely. They will waffle. The major players are poised to make history. Maybe." Of course that is paraphrased but it was good advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 FFC updated extended discussion: [NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY INTERESTING AND VERY COLD AS WELL. FIRST...RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MON AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A -FZRA/-FZDZ EVENT AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. AFTER THIS...THE GFS AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE ECMWF...ADVERTISE A MASSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH A 1063MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING OUT OF NW/NC CANADA INTO THE U.S. BY 12Z JAN 13TH...ONLY FAR S FL AND THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST ARE LEFT ABOVE 0C AT 850MB...WITH WIDESPREAD -12C TO -16C 850MB TEMPS COVERING MUCH OF THE U.S....INCLUDING N GA. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE I HAVE SEEN ARCTIC AIR COVERING THIS MUCH U.S. REAL ESTATE. IN ADDITION...WITH BLOCKING NEAR THE NORTH POLE...THIS PATTERN COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR...THE EXTENT AND DURATION WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.] All I can say is WOW!!! What would cause them to do a long range update just hours after the main afternoon update??? And before the 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET???? Something must really be up....either that, or they feel like their afternoon AFD was not adequate....Sill...this really sticks out....a LONG RANGE update so soon after a AFD.... Kudos to the poster on another forum for finding this....I mean really...Who would have been looking for this a 9:00 p.m.???? What say ye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A little bit confused here too. (Back in school.... kind of hard to check in on the forum during school, esp. when the Internet is down.) Pattern still looks good, amirite? At least it's not the torch everyone assumed we would have. Even though some ensembles look bad, keep in mind there seem to be storms lined up to affect us over the next couple weeks. Please tell me that (amirite) is a Needle Nose Ned, Ned the Head reference from the movie Groundhog Day! If you have no idea what I'm talking about, sorry bout that. Just ignore me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Me, too. Started on a good note and it's looking kind of somber in here right now. I'm going to take what was said this morning and keep that in mind. "Don't watch the runs too closely. They will waffle. The major players are poised to make history. Maybe." Of course that is paraphrased but it was good advice. With the exception of the long streak on the euro, look at the last storm. It wasn't Ickes up really until right before the storm started. At this point i am not somber! Some of the hesitancy may be the type. Since i love all types I am fine with ice (since that's what ga has historically gotten more of lol). Some are snow only, so if its showing ice they aren't as upbeat Granted i don't want more than .5 - .75 at the most, but a good ice storm is sort of fun to track with the cad, dew points, temps etc just give my anything other than rain this time of year or ghe dreaded apps runner Please tell me that (amirite) is a Needle Nose Ned, Ned the Head reference from the movie Groundhog Day! If you have no idea what I'm talking about, sorry bout that. Just ignore me. i thought the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Kendra Kent Fox Carolina update: Pleasant winter day today! It was definitely chilly but the sunshine helped Expect temps to warm a few more degrees for tomorrow, then cool back down a hair for mid week. Essentially we aren’t looking at much change through the week (a little breezy tomorrow afternoon, some clouds Wed-Thur). Temps will be fairly similar each day until we get to Friday! The second cold front of our week will come through Thursday/Thur. night to bring much colder air back into our area. Highs will drop about 10-15 degrees and overnight lows will be borderline frigid as we head into the weekend! THEN, with all of that cold air in place we’ll be watching a low pressure develop and move our direction. It’s pretty far out to speculate, but I think the chance of the Upstate seeing snow on Monday night-Tuesday of next week is about 40% at this point. I’ll up that as we get closer or reduce it depending on the trends. There is decent agreement on this low pressure developing, but like Andy mentioned before, one of the big questions will be “how cold will it be early next week?” and “how will the low track?” For those of you making weekend plans right now, I think we’ll stay dry thru Sunday, but DEFINITELY looking cold as we head into Saturday-Sunday timeframe. Robert posted a nice disco on his blog http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Please tell me that (amirite) is a Needle Nose Ned, Ned the Head reference from the movie Groundhog Day! If you have no idea what I'm talking about, sorry bout that. Just ignore me. Watch that first step, its a DOSEY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 FFC updated extended discussion: [NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY INTERESTING AND VERY COLD AS WELL. FIRST...RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MON AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A -FZRA/-FZDZ EVENT AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. AFTER THIS...THE GFS AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE ECMWF...ADVERTISE A MASSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH A 1063MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING OUT OF NW/NC CANADA INTO THE U.S. BY 12Z JAN 13TH...ONLY FAR S FL AND THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST ARE LEFT ABOVE 0C AT 850MB...WITH WIDESPREAD -12C TO -16C 850MB TEMPS COVERING MUCH OF THE U.S....INCLUDING N GA. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE I HAVE SEEN ARCTIC AIR COVERING THIS MUCH U.S. REAL ESTATE. IN ADDITION...WITH BLOCKING NEAR THE NORTH POLE...THIS PATTERN COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR...THE EXTENT AND DURATION WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.] All I can say is WOW!!! What would cause them to do a long range update just hours after the main afternoon update??? And before the 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET???? Something must really be up....either that, or they feel like their afternoon AFD was not adequate....Sill...this really sticks out....a LONG RANGE update so soon after a AFD.... Kudos to the poster on another forum for finding this....I mean really...Who would have been looking for this a 9:00 p.m.???? What say ye? S NELSON used to post on Eastern, but I am not sure who wrote it. He admitted last year publically that their office was behind the curve, but that they were starting to catch up. In the last 3 weeks I have been impressed with the FFC stepping outside their box so to speak. I know... I know.. they still play the conservative card, but discos like this are very good. My argument for years have been, they are disco's. How many people besides us weather weenies are going to read them? Its almost like the opinion page of a newspaper. Tell us what you think.. don't copy and paste the last shift's disco. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 25 outside at the moment, Goofus is off and runing, trying to stay awake for it is tough. Thanks to everyone in advance who discos the euro. Fun and informative early morning reading material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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