dsaur Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 From FFC this afternoon: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH THE GULF LOW PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE OH/TN VLY REGION FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOW POPS EXTREME NORTH STILL LOOK OKAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PUSHING EAST OFF THE TX COAST SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. THICKNESSES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA. Pretty bold statement from FFC this far out....noticed also that TWC highlighted north GA for a rain/snow mix....hmmmm. Dacula...we are totally on the same wavelength...oops! Oh well, did you see that TWC is also showing that this far out....ok, where's the hands face slap smiley LOL! Well, they backed off the ice for you, me, and Fide for Thurs. morning. The 12z bufkit still had it. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Interestingly, CIPS guidance today has it's top analog the 1/15-1/16/03 event for the clipper that comes through at hour 120 on the 12z GFS. That dropped accumulating snow across most of the state. This would be the second clipper in one month. With similar accumulations (for my area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Aftn HPC Disco... TWO POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS ARE AN UPPER LOW BEING KICKED EWD ACROSS THE US/MEXICAN BORDER DAYS 4-5...AND UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NE PACIFIC SE INTO THE WRN STATES. THRU EARLY DAY 6 THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE FIRST SYS MOVING ACROSS THE US MEXICAN BORDER...WITH FILLS RAPIDLY BEYOND DAY 6. THE UPSTREAM SYS BEGINS TO HAVE SERIOUS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS EARLY AS DAY 5...WITH THE DIFFERENCES INCREASING INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS COMPLEX SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE DEEPENING LARGER SCALE WRN TROF. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT HERE...PREFER THE DEEPER MODEL SOLUTIONS INC THIS NEW WRN TROF WHICH ARE ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH A NUMBER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. REMNANTS OF THE FIRST SYS KICKED ACROSS THE SW BORDER MAY INDUCE SOME GULF INFLOW INTO THE SERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND...WITH OVERRUNNING RA AND POSSIBLE SN ON THE NW EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD DEVELOPING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The latest from BMX this afternoon: BY SUNDAY...WE BEGIN TO WATCH A NEW SYSTEM THAT COMES OUT OF CALIFORNIA IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS...CAUSING A SURFACE GULF LOW TO FORM. AS WE KNOW...THOSE ARE WINTER WEATHER MAKERS FOR US THIS TIME OF YEAR...DEPENDING ON ITS LOCATION RELATIVE TO OUR AREA. 00Z EURO AND 06Z GFS WERE VERY SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...EVEN IN DAY 7...PUTTING IT JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS AND RUNNING IT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM 06Z UNTIL 18Z ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD HAVE BROUGHT SNOW FLAKES AND PROBABLY SOME ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIVERGED IN SOLUTION...BUT BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST MAINLY BECAUSE MODELS WILL LIKELY SWAP BACK AND FORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THEIR SOLUTION OF P-TYPE. LETS JUST AGREE TO SAY SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME.BEYOND MONDAY...THERE ARE GRUMBLINGS OF MUCH MUCH COLDER AIR DEVELOPING UP NORTH...AND ITS LOOKING FOR SOME TYPE OF TRANSPORT TO GET ITSELF DOWN HERE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Fwiw the 12Z 1/3 JMA has a major snow for ATL/AHN and vicinity on Mon 1/10 due to a near textbook Miller A tracking low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z GFS looks amazing at 204 that would be one long duration event! Ha! It starts at 192 then doesn't exit until around 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z GFS looks amazing at 204 that would be one long duration event! Ha! It starts at 192 then doesn't exit until around 228. Just kind of strange how it got there. It looks like it slows down the 1st wave in the gulf, then all the energy is transfered to the 2nd wave to make one big storm around hr 204. Can someone w/ more knowledge than me confirm that's what happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z GFS looks amazing at 204 that would be one long duration event! Ha! It starts at 192 then doesn't exit until around 228. A little warm for snow looks icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm going to update my blog about the two specific threats on the Horizon (clipper system on Saturday) and possible phased system next week. I'll post it here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the way this looks to me.........................there is an overrunning threat (relatively minor) from the first ejecting low that comes out and weakens (late weekend)while at the same time more energy comes around the backside of the trough, and creates a western gulf low that heads ENE and then north/northeast along the seaboard. It's the second one that will grab headlines though the first one could create issues in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 18Z GFS if it were true would be a very nasty ice event for the north GA area- I for one hope it is snow/sleet or nothing. That could mean power out for a long time, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 18Z GFS if it were true would be a very nasty ice event for the north GA area- I for one hope it is snow/sleet or nothing. That could mean power out for a long time, no thanks. Yep, looks like 100% ZR this run for here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I guess this is going to be another colorful week of we got it! no we don't! I hate to say it but it looks like a dup of Christmas... :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 18Z GFS if it were true would be a very nasty ice event for the north GA area- I for one hope it is snow/sleet or nothing. That could mean power out for a long time, no thanks. Yep, looks like 100% ZR this run for here too. That's the last thing I ever want to experience again. After what happened in Dec. 2002, I rather not repeat anything close to what that storm put out. No power for over a week and half my food gone out of the fridge. Unreal of how much damage was caused. Needs to be either snow, sleet, or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 18Z GFS if it were true would be a very nasty ice event for the north GA area- I for one hope it is snow/sleet or nothing. That could mean power out for a long time, no thanks. That would be nasty Cheez....It seems like a light zr sits in N. Ga forever. Like you, I would have to say no thanks to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 18Z GFS if it were true would be a very nasty ice event for the north GA area- I for one hope it is snow/sleet or nothing. That could mean power out for a long time, no thanks. Thats what I was thinking, that 1035 high looks to be in good position for some good CAD. Long ways out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's the last thing I ever want to experience again. After what happened in Dec. 2002, I rather not repeat anything close to what that storm put out. No power for over a week and half my food gone out of the fridge. Unreal of how much damage was caused. Needs to be either snow, sleet, or both. And with ensuing prolonged bitter cold, it would be very dangerous and deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 18Z GFS if it were true would be a very nasty ice event for the north GA area- I for one hope it is snow/sleet or nothing. That could mean power out for a long time, no thanks. Just getting in and checking on our winter prospects is this the mid week event or the weekend event? Getting ready to check the models and wanted to know which one to look at first lol. N ga hasn't had much ice in 5 year so i expect we'll get some soon Edit: whoa just saw it in the extended...that does look nasty!! It will be interesting to see if we actually can get a 'real' cad for a change that acts like it should lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thats what I was thinking, that 1035 high looks to be in good position for some good CAD. Long ways out though I was wondering which period you guys were referring to on the 18z GFS, but take it as around 162 hrs... Verbatim, there would be some icing issues initially, but surface temps quickly rise above freezing thereafter. I am not discounting the threat, but taken literally it would be a minor event that dripped it way towards a nuisance type deal. The monster HP progged to enter CONUS around Glacier National Park at day 6 and 7 needs shift east a bit, entering around ND preferably. Given the current agreement on placing this hp along the front range, instead of the northern and central plains, I could see sig ridging and waa ahead of it along the EC which would warm us up considerably prior to any threat that is currently a week out. Most of the global models show this, with 850's well above 0C for most of the SE in the 7 and 8 day panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 At least the power bill would be lower. Thats the only positive I could think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 At least the power bill would be lower. Thats the only positive I could think of. I used to not mind ice and loss of power.. Now with two kids one 2 year old and a 5 year old. I would think not so much for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I was born on January 25. I lived in Raleigh in 2000. The best bday storm for me was the Jan 88 storm. My birthday is January 8th. We were in Raleigh. Had family from Charlotte snowed in for a few days because they came for me and my brother's dual birthday party. The blizzard of 96 was a white birthday as well, but the snow/sleet fell mostly the day before. Did have some flurries on my bday I recall though. As for the forecast, the Fish was not too certain what to tell us at the 6pm weather broadcast. More at 10pm he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z DGEX drops a swath of accumulating snow across MS/AL/GA with the initial wave then as that wave dampens out the the main energy swings through and gives damming regions a little bit of ice. The 18z NOGAPS is a dream scenario and burys my backyard with at least a foot of snow. It appears as though it keeps the initial wave much more intact and it goes neg tilt at the right time to really cream N. GA/upstate SC/ and all of NC. Then the backside energy phases in with it and it the low really starts cranking as it crawls up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z DGEX drops a swath of accumulating snow across MS/AL/GA with the initial wave then as that wave dampens out the the main energy swings through and gives damming regions a little bit of ice. The 18z NOGAPS is a dream scenario and burys my backyard with at least a foot of snow. It appears as though it keeps the initial wave much more intact and it goes neg tilt at the right time to really cream N. GA/upstate SC/ and all of NC. Then the backside energy phases in with it and it the low really starts cranking as it crawls up the coast. What? That looks too warm for central SC or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What? That looks too warm for central SC or am I missing something? I live in the city of Central,SC not the central area of SC. Central,SC is in the far Northwest corner of the state. And, yea, verbatim it would be all rain for the midlands of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 18z DGEX drops a swath of accumulating snow across MS/AL/GA with the initial wave then as that wave dampens out the the main energy swings through and gives damming regions a little bit of ice. The 18z NOGAPS is a dream scenario and burys my backyard with at least a foot of snow. It appears as though it keeps the initial wave much more intact and it goes neg tilt at the right time to really cream N. GA/upstate SC/ and all of NC. Then the backside energy phases in with it and it the low really starts cranking as it crawls up the coast. Hopefully those Navy boys made some tweaks this year and this comes through. I think last year the NOGAPS nailed either the December MA storm or the Feb. storm, outside of that I never really paid much attention to it cause I thought it didn't have that good of verification rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I live in the city of Central,SC not the central area of SC. Central,SC is in the far Northwest corner of the state. And, yea, verbatim it would be all rain for the midlands of SC. Learn something new everyday! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hopefully those Navy boys made some tweaks this year and this comes through. I think last year the NOGAPS nailed either the December MA storm or the Feb. storm, outside of that I never really paid much attention to it cause I thought it didn't have that good of verification rates. It's been terrible this year. Like, really terrible on the Dec. storm especially. I don't trust it whatsoever for anything. Even if it said sunny and 80 degrees I would suspect rain or snow without even looking at other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I was wondering which period you guys were referring to on the 18z GFS, but take it as around 162 hrs... Verbatim, there would be some icing issues initially, but surface temps quickly rise above freezing thereafter. I am not discounting the threat, but taken literally it would be a minor event that dripped it way towards a nuisance type deal. The monster HP progged to enter CONUS around Glacier National Park at day 6 and 7 needs shift east a bit, entering around ND preferably. Given the current agreement on placing this hp along the front range, instead of the northern and central plains, I could see sig ridging and waa ahead of it along the EC which would warm us up considerably prior to any threat that is currently a week out. Most of the global models show this, with 850's well above 0C for most of the SE in the 7 and 8 day panels. Taken literally, maybe, but that 1040 HP over Lake Superior argues for much more than a nuisance event. It does weaken all the way to 1032 as the event is winding down, but it's not in a bad spot to supply plenty of cold, dry air throughout the event. That's not taking the model literally, though. If that High is there, I doubt we'd have plain rain, at least in much of NC, and probably a nice chunk of upstate SC too. I also wouldn't see the surface low traversing the NC Piedmont either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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