GaWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Good WSW 500 mb flow becomes established hours 234-240 of the 12Z Euro setting the stage for good moisture return soon afterward. The SW/W GOM already has qpf by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sweet mother-load snow porn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Great run down Robert. But I assume most will read the bold Statement. I will wait for Peach and Buckeye to post nice smileys ! Its still not safe to make a solid forecast call for sure b/c there's so many things going on. But to me one of the biggest likelihoods (but not a forecast) is that the Tx system will begin to hook more northeast than this run shows, swiping snow across the Deep south and up to central VA before exiting the coast, as the Northeast system looks like it will make room. The biggest unknown is what to do with the 2 incoming Rockie's waves, and how far they dig. The models are going to be all over the place at this range and it will take a couple more days to really get a good handle, but that system could end up being the biggest weather maker of the two. With the longwave tough carved out so far west, the GFS looks pretty reasonable at that range, but its all conjecture now. The Tx system may not be as fast as the models show, which would then allow it to merge somewhat with the incoming Rockies system, it just depends on the spacing of all the players, which no model has right yet. No matter how you slice it, theres still plenty of hope for a measurable snow or ice event in the Tenn Valley to Southeast starting Sunday and into much of next week, with 2 separate systems. Also possible the second system winds up the coast as a full fledged blizzard with the motherlode of CaK. air coming in beind it. So, I wouldn't be suprised to see 2 measurable snows in part of the southeast soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 As long as we keep the amazing blocking I'm mostly content. With blocking all things seem possible. And if things get suppressed...well, I like being on the northern edge of the precip shield, lol. As long as it is cold...I want to see a system come up into very cold air with frozen ground. I'm tired of the snow and go I've been seeing the last 3 years. Give me a cut off low ejecting out a few days after it has been in the low teens, and more cold on the way...like the one they called SnoJam in Atl. Everything that fell stuck with that one. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Good WSW 500 mb flow becomes established hours 234-240 of the 12Z Euro setting the stage for good moisture return soon afterward. The SW/W GOM already has qpf by then. It's an awesome pattern. Though I would like to see more split flow but it's pointless to argue over a 10 day map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Fwiw, 12Z Euro has decent qpf for SAV/CHS and vicinity hours 156-68 (1/9-10) with 850's close to 0C...probably a cold rain but not far from something else at least mixing in especially a little inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 FWIW, 240 hr Euro looks awesome Massive AK block still in place.. s/w diving into the SW.. PV lifting out to 50/50. This pattern is locked! Great run down Robert. But I assume most will read the bold Statement. I will wait for Peach and Buckeye to post nice smileys ! The pattern is overall a good one for southern storm development or overrunning, we just can't bank on details right now. The 1067 high (which has got to be near record!) is ridging from way up north, so this will allow development at the base of the height field, somewhere in Texas to the Tenn Valley at some point or the Gulf, depending on s/w activity. Enormous ridging shown from days 7 through 10, so at some point strong amplification would be likely in that time range, which is why I like the Idea of Miller A going up the coast at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wow at the longe range Euro. The 240 map is extremely impressive. Im not too worried at the lack of specific storms being shown on the models. Nothing is set in stone and there is plenty of time to trend in the right direction. With this much cold around I find it hard to believe the south will escape without SOME kind of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's an awesome pattern. Though I would like to see more split flow but it's pointless to argue over a 10 day map. Yeah, it looks like the models have been rather consistent at developing the big ridge over / north of Alaska. I was wondering if we would be able to get any waves to undercut the ridge and track into the SW. It looks like there are a few waves attempting to do this in the later frames of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Great run down Robert. But I assume most will read the bold Statement. I will wait for Peach and Buckeye to post nice smileys ! Which you shall see. If it looks like on my Birthday. One would think that a January child would have many memorable snows on their Birthday. At the risk of dating myself, which I will now do, I was born in 1960!!! So it will be smilies for everyone if this looks any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, it looks like the models have been rather consistent at developing the big ridge over / north of Alaska. I was wondering if we would be able to get any waves to undercut the ridge and track into the SW. It looks like there are a few waves attempting to do this in the later frames of the Euro. That's one La Nina trait we need gone to get that started up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Which you shall see. If it looks like on my Birthday. One would think that a January child would have many memorable snows on their Birthday. At the risk of dating myself, which I will now do, I was born in 1960!!! So it will be smilies for everyone if this looks any better. What day is your BD? Mine is the 11th and I cannot recall ever having snow on my BD. I'm hoping this one will pan out at least somewhere around my BD, especially since I missed out on the Christmas storm. I'm liking my chances right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What day is your BD? Mine is the 11th and I cannot recall ever having snow on my BD. I'm hoping this one will pan out at least somewhere around my BD, especially since I missed out on the Christmas storm. I'm liking my chances right now. Oh my....it is THE 11th!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Oh my....it is THE 11th!!!! That's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 UKMet is suppressing the first wave, but has a decent look with the larger upper wave coming behind it into the northern Rockies. With the Christmas storm, the UKMet took the lead with moving the storm south from the Ohio Valley...overall, it has tended to be on the southern end with storm tracks and the Canadian on the northern end...just like we see with this morning's runs - maybe we cut it in the middle and get a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Which you shall see. If it looks like on my Birthday. One would think that a January child would have many memorable snows on their Birthday. At the risk of dating myself, which I will now do, I was born in 1960!!! So it will be smilies for everyone if this looks any better. I was born on January 25. I lived in Raleigh in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 FWIW, 240 hr Euro looks awesome Massive AK block still in place.. s/w diving into the SW.. PV lifting out to 50/50. This pattern is locked! Great run down Robert. But I assume most will read the bold Statement. I will wait for Peach and Buckeye to post nice smileys ! I can't help myself with the disco this hawt As long as we keep the amazing blocking I'm mostly content. With blocking all things seem possible. And if things get suppressed...well, I like being on the northern edge of the precip shield, lol. As long as it is cold...I want to see a system come up into very cold air with frozen ground. I'm tired of the snow and go I've been seeing the last 3 years. Give me a cut off low ejecting out a few days after it has been in the low teens, and more cold on the way...like the one they called SnoJam in Atl. Everything that fell stuck with that one. T This is true..I was talking with SF a couple of weeks ago about the upcoming pattern, and what I had hoped would happen, and it seems the possibility is there. The year of extremes is carving new territory...lol Which you shall see. If it looks like on my Birthday. One would think that a January child would have many memorable snows on their Birthday. At the risk of dating myself, which I will now do, I was born in 1960!!! So it will be smilies for everyone if this looks any better. I hope your birthday is rockin' Peach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I was born on January 25. I lived in Raleigh in 2000. Shoot mine is the 26th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Soooooo.....is this where we throw darts on a map to see where it's going to snow?!! For the love of me I'm hearing so much good discussion of the pattern and the good potential but I've got no clue what it all means. Not a flippin clue. It's fun to listen to everybody talk about it though! All I know is there's not really anything shown on the models and the models don't really have a grasp of what's going on, from what i understand from discussion. I guess the next question would be when WILL the models start ironing out this weekends system? The EURO locked in on the Christmas storm the monday before if I recall correctly (lost it later but picked it back up a little). The 2004 storm was identified fairly early. Around Wednesday maybe? It seems like the Monday-Tuesday time frame is the next best time for a significant event. It seems the best systems are picked up early. I'm hoping the models pick up on something in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Which you shall see. If it looks like on my Birthday. One would think that a January child would have many memorable snows on their Birthday. At the risk of dating myself, which I will now do, I was born in 1960!!! So it will be smilies for everyone if this looks any better. Oh hold on now...I would have SWORN you were not a day older than 25. You must have your date mixed up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jason ='s a true Man!! Oh hold on now...I would have SWORN you were not a day older than 25. You must have your date mixed up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Interestingly, CIPS guidance today has it's top analog the 1/15-1/16/03 event for the clipper that comes through at hour 120 on the 12z GFS. That dropped accumulating snow across most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I was born on January 25. I lived in Raleigh in 2000. I lived in Charlotte in 1960. I don't remember much though. I hope your birthday is rockin' Peach! It sure is lookin' to be just that! Shoot mine is the 26th! January babies FTW!! I'll buy a round of Birthday snow for the whole Crew! Oh hold on now...I would have SWORN you were not a day older than 25. You must have your date mixed up! Awwww!!! I really don't 'look' it. (thanks to anti-aging technology ) and I dang sure don't feel it!! ps: I'm trying to get my smiley fix before we go into "Storm Mode". Wouldn't want to get or something of that nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yea the long range euro looks great. The block over Alaska manages to meet up with the developing ridge just off the Pacific coast, which pretty much frees the polar vortex to drop down into Southern Canada by this time frame. By the looks of the pattern, it could come down even into the United States. The end result is that the long range is looking exceptionally cold, colder than anything that occurred last year. As for storm chances, you have to like the orientation of the long-wave trough, although I'd like to see is a little sharper at 240 hours. Even before then, it looks like we have a couple of decent chances of accumulating snowfall as Robert alluded to. However, the details are pretty much all over the place in this highly anomalous pattern, and I imagine it won't be till sometime this weekend to where we can resolve some of the bigger details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 When FFC even mentions snow... it's gotta be a sure thing! Especially at this distance! LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH THE GULF LOW PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEASTCOAST THURSDAY TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE OH/TN VLY REGION FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOW POPS EXTREME NORTH STILL LOOK OKAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PUSHING EAST OFF THE TX COAST SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. THICKNESSES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 From FFC this afternoon: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH THE GULF LOW PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE OH/TN VLY REGION FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOW POPS EXTREME NORTH STILL LOOK OKAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PUSHING EAST OFF THE TX COAST SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. THICKNESSES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA. Pretty bold statement from FFC this far out....noticed also that TWC highlighted north GA for a rain/snow mix....hmmmm. Dacula...we are totally on the same wavelength...oops! Oh well, did you see that TWC is also showing that this far out....ok, where's the hands face slap smiley LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 When FFC even mentions snow... it's gotta be a sure thing! Especially at this distance! GSP is not so sure (link for the full write-up) UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH FOR THISPERIOD...SO WILL CAP POPS AT LOW END CHC FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS...WITHSLIGHT CHANCES OF A MIXED BAG EAST OF THE MTNS MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Interestingly, CIPS guidance today has it's top analog the 1/15-1/16/03 event for the clipper that comes through at hour 120 on the 12z GFS. That dropped accumulating snow across most of the state. I was hoping for more like 1/23/03 We'll have to see how the vort max strength and track pans out over the next few days...and the jet streak positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 From FFC this afternoon: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH THE GULF LOW PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE OH/TN VLY REGION FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOW POPS EXTREME NORTH STILL LOOK OKAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PUSHING EAST OFF THE TX COAST SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. THICKNESSES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA. Pretty bold statement from FFC this far out....noticed also that TWC highlighted north GA for a rain/snow mix....hmmmm. Dacula...we are totally on the same wavelength...oops! Oh well, did you see that TWC is also showing that this far out....ok, where's the hands face slap smiley LOL! That will probably scare storm away! Too early for that kind of forecast I hope it is true but after watching models flip flop during Christmas its hard to bank on anything this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Afternoon long term disco's from the NC WFOs... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 301 PM EST MON JAN 3 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 255 PM MONDAY... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM GENERALLY FEATURES AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE PERIOD IS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THE 03/12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST VIGOROUS WITH THIS SYSTEM PLACING THE 1.5 PV SURFACE DOWN TO 800 MB ON 00Z SAT NEAR KORD BEFORE IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WV AND SOUTHERN VA...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE GREATEST (ALBEIT LOW CHANCES) NEAR THE VA BORDER. AIR MASS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT HIGH TEMPS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FCST FROM THE 03/12Z GFS FOR KRDU - 1250M AND THE 03/12Z ECMWF WITH 1305M WHICH EQUATES TO AROUND A 15 DEG F DIFFERENCE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT INCLUDE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GFS APPEARS WAY TOO COLD BUT WILL INCLUDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 37-42 RANGE. A COLD AIR OUTBREAK WITH DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 35-45 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 20-26 RANGE. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT AMPLIFY TOO AND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR NC. BUT THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND OFF THE FL/GA COAST IS FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN NC AND THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS COLD. WILL INCLUDE A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK OVER THIS SYSTEM FOR A FEW RUNS BEFORE COMMITTING. AT THIS POINT THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. WILL BEEF UP CLOUDINESS AND GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD AIR OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. -BLAES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 345 PM EST MON JAN 3 2011 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM MON...A VERY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGS THROUGH THE DEEP TROF OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIME SECTIONS DEPICT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WINDS THROUGH A LARGE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH MAKES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SEEM OVERDONE. WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 20-30% FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT WEAKENS ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER SOUTHERN-STREAM LOW ON MONDAY BUT ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. HPC APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE MIDDLE-GROUND APPROACH AND HAS THE LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 12Z MONDAY. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EST MON JAN 3 2011 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY TAKING ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MINIMAL BEHIND THIS FEATURE...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE HUGE RESURGENCE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM...AND THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY. THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY SEASONABLE. IT COULD END UP MILDER IF SOME OF THE INCREASE CLOUDINESS HINTED AT IN GUIDANCE OCCURS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. IMPRESSIVELY DEEP POLAR GYRE DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY DRIVING A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. FROPA LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE LOW 50S BUT THE BOTTOM WILL FALL OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS OFFSHORE AND FROPA LOOKS TO BE RAIN-FREE. STRONG TRAILING VORT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALSO LARGELY MOISTURE DEPRIVED BUT COULD SEE HOW A FLURRY OR TWO IS SPOTTED LOCALLY. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT ABOUT -14C ON SATURDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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