Amos83 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The Euro seems a little similar to our Christmas event around 240. Certain Jan 8 - 12th has some potential. As Matt mentioned though the Euro and GFS are looking night day, Euro wants to pop a low out of Tx right now and drag it across the gulf, the 6z GFS also looks somewhat similar. As others have said in the LR this looks to be a Jan. to remember. Hopefully all of us in the CLT region can cash in on a storm and be on the high end of things. BTW Amos, you back in CLT? Amazing there is still snow on the ground. Burger, yep I'm back in town. It's amazing to still see a good bit of snow on the ground after several days of bright sunshine and "mild" temps. Looks like your snow triangle of death is still in full force around here. Hopefully we will cash in over the next two months. I have a feeling we will. My house ended up with 3.5 inches of snow which isn't bad but just 20 miles north got 7! Not technically a screw job but still is hard to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Noticed this thread reads January 2010 instead of 2011. Maybe that mistake will carry the good mojo from 2010 into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Noticed this thread reads January 2010 instead of 2011. Maybe that mistake will carry the good mojo from 2010 into the new year. Bahahaha!! I honestly never noticed that!! So, who else is a doodle-head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 haha I think Jshetely should or Gaffneypeach, We need to bring the snowline south, so the Upstate and CLT region can get one. I vote that GaffneyPeach starts it! Good idea. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 If the pattern 'locks and loads', and it's near my birthday, January 11, I'll start anything you want me to. Not gonna touch it until I see 'the whites of their eyes', though. (to quote GSP) LOL GSP had another good one in this storm "I should have been a farmer..." lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Closer inspection does show the CMC, Euro, GFS, and even the NOGAPS and JMA are supporting a huge ridge with energy coming down around Cali. Hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 HPC on board for next weekend. MID LEVEL BLOCKING AND A LARGE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY RETURNS TO NRN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF. STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. The SE ridge fights harder after this next front,around normal or a little below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 GSP had another good one in this storm "I should have been a farmer..." lol. That was a good one. Here it is... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE /THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I have noticed over the last few years that CLT is consistently colder than other central NC locations on clear nights during Arctic outbreaks. For instance, its 10 degree reading earlier than month was colder than just about any other central NC location. Yet, the highs were constistnely warmer there than most other central NC locations. Further, CLT has been consistently warmer during precipitation events, which has been a major factor when the rest of the state gets snow. Could someone please explain why CLT gets so cold at night during cold snaps yet is warmer during the day and during precipitation events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Well I guess I am the outlier here as I think Jan will average above normal temp wise. That doesn't mean we can't get some wintry precipitation, but with a lack of large scale arctic air, it is likely to be in the form of ice instead of snow and limited to the normal CAD areas. I will be watching the Aleutian low closely the next 2-3 weeks for a more definitive prognosis because it will be a key factor for us here both in the source region of air and the storm track IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hour 210-216 of new euro has a solid looking gulf system with a closed 850 low. Looks like a snow/sleet solution for southern va/nc/NW sc/NE Ga.Looks pretty marginal for sfc temps, but it's close enough for snow/sleet probably in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hour 210-216 of new euro has a solid looking gulf system with a closed 850 low. Looks like a snow/sleet solution for southern va/nc/NW sc/NE Ga.Looks pretty marginal for sfc temps, but it's close enough for snow/sleet probably in some areas. HKY_WX. Where is the system at 210? I can see the SLP near Myrte Beach at 216. At 192, it's in TX according to Penn State's e-wall. I can't see increments between 192 and 216. Does it dive into the GOM and then up? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 actually has a pretty strong slp. starts to go sub 990 as it hits the coast at hour 216 to 222. If this were to trend more towards a cutoff solution above 850mb, this could be a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 HKY_WX. Where is the system at 210? I can see the SLP near Myrte Beach at 216. At 192, it's in TX according to Penn State's e-wall. I can't see increments between 192 and 216. Does it dive into the GOM and then up? Thanks! At 210 the surface low is sub 998 sitting just wsw of savannah very solid 850 low and 700mb VV's. mostly likely snow in eastern TN/NC/far N GA/ NW SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hour 210-216 of new euro has a solid looking gulf system with a closed 850 low. Looks like a snow/sleet solution for southern va/nc/NW sc/NE Ga.Looks pretty marginal for sfc temps, but it's close enough for snow/sleet probably in some areas. It does look interesting. To far out to worry about temps but if they are correct on the 12z euro we would need this to come in at night because 2m temps really shoot up during daytime hours. But you're right it is something to keep an eye on. This is the same threat DT has been talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 To be honest, this storm has a lot of potential to be another Miller A. The setup is eerly similar to the last storm except the pacific is a bit more favorable for a sharper trough axis. Honestly it reminds me a lot of last year's miller A's in Dec/jan/feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 With that high up in Maine would we be looking at some help with a CAD setup? I'm not to familiar with CAD events and what we need outside of the basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 With that high up in Maine would we be looking at some help with a CAD setup? I'm not to familiar with CAD events and what we need outside of the basics. As of right now it doesn't look like there would be much if any cad. To me this event looks to be driven dynamically.A lot of cold air comes in behind it. I have a feeling this changes a lot though. The setup would probably favor a more amplified storm up the coast.The setup is pretty close to dec 19, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 With that high up in Maine would we be looking at some help with a CAD setup? I'm not to familiar with CAD events and what we need outside of the basics. You usually dont want the high that far north and east. A center somewhere in southeastern Canada or NY is much more favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 As of right now it doesn't look like there would be much if any cad. To me this event looks to be driven dynamically.A lot of cold air comes in behind it. I have a feeling this changes a lot though. The setup would probably favor a more amplified storm up the coast. You usually dont want the high that far north and east. A center somewhere in southeastern Canada or NY is much more favorable position. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 HP over the great lakes is great, Maine still good but not quite as ideal. Regardless, it should help if there's a system along the coast next weeekend. Correct me if i'm wrong, but CAD is never a factor with a miller A that is along the coast, right? CAD is typically a factor when the low pressure moves up over or west of the mountains, hence the "wedge" in the cad areas. SW winds coming across the mountains cannot scour out the low level cold air. When the low is along the coast, there is no wedge and no CAD. Comments? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 DT is certainly on board for "something to watch" From his wxrisk facebook page" **ALERT 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL SHOW COASTAL LOW ALONG NC COAST JAN 7-8 ... FLOWED BY EXTREME -- near ZERO temps & STRONG N WINDS *** All I can think is "here we go again". My personal opinion is we need to get this within 6 days with some model consistency before getting too excited. Where the pattern appears to be heading should provide some opportunity though. Fun times ahead, or so it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 As of right now it doesn't look like there would be much if any cad. To me this event looks to be driven dynamically.A lot of cold air comes in behind it. I have a feeling this changes a lot though. The setup would probably favor a more amplified storm up the coast.The setup is pretty close to dec 19, 2010. not so much, boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 GFS is hinting at something as well in the same general time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 http://www.americanw...n-life-support/ Interesting write-up from another region in regards to temps and weather pattern for January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yeah it looks like we will get a brief warm up and then right back to where we have been this whole month pretty much. Wouldn't mind seeing some more snow too! Also if you haven't already voted for Brick in the Weenie of the Year race do it! He is down quite a bit so the SE needs to rise up and put him on top! Vote for Brick here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I have noticed over the last few years that CLT is consistently colder than other central NC locations on clear nights during Arctic outbreaks. For instance, its 10 degree reading earlier than month was colder than just about any other central NC location. Yet, the highs were constistnely warmer there than most other central NC locations. Further, CLT has been consistently warmer during precipitation events, which has been a major factor when the rest of the state gets snow. Could someone please explain why CLT gets so cold at night during cold snaps yet is warmer during the day and during precipitation events. I've noticed in the last 2 years of the outbreaks, the center of the high has settled on two consecutive nights, each outbreak, around eastern Ky, eastern TN, or western NC, which is a good spot for drainage in the western Piedmont, and excellent radiating conditions, so that probably explains why CLT has been colder many times when its not advective cold, as opposed to GSO and RDU areas. During precip events, just being further south is why they're usually warmer than northern piedmont, since precip is the great equalizer and brings nearby areas down to about the same temperature, with similar wetbulbs. IE, no radiating conditions. Also, for example this Christmas storm there was a slight warm layer at 925 and the precip arrived very late there, and also was light. Contrast that with the mountains and I-40 where precip arrived early, and the axis of precip there was heavy, allowing a large region just to the north to lock in cold surface temps from the get go, and they were colder aloft, being further north and west. During last years Feb. big storm that dumped 2 feet in DC, many areas were 33 or 34 all day in GA, and the Carolinas, ATL GSP RDU CLT CAE TYS HKY INT GSO AHN all had about 33/34 , so thats an example of that. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Good evening everyone new wennie to Americanwx followed this forum with the Christmas Day Storm was very impressed look forward to blogging with everyone with this next upcoming storm and the ones to follow very interested in going back to school to become a Met myself and this forum throughout the last storm only added fuel to that fire again I look forward to blogging with yall btw I am Alex.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Good evening everyone new wennie to Americanwx followed this forum with the Christmas Day Storm was very impressed look forward to blogging with everyone with this next upcoming storm and the ones to follow very interested in going back to school to become a Met myself and this forum throughout the last storm only added fuel to that fire again I look forward to blogging with yall btw I am Alex.... Welcome!!! Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Anderson SC Welcome!!! Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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