Weather Czar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol.. No one posted the Canadian. Someone post it. I can't from my phone. It has the weekend storm coming out faster and is not so suppressed like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol.. No one posted the Canadian. Someone post it. I can't from my phone. It has the weekend storm coming out faster and is not so suppressed like the gfs. Looks good. If anything we would want the low father south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Canadian is much weaker with the NE storm and therefore the CAD- would be an ICE to cold rain event in GA, mainly ice with some snow in the Carolinas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 At this point I would hate to try to pin anything down, still is still so much uncertainty with the extremes that the models are showing. I'm pretty old and I don't remember anything like this (in my recallable memory!) pattern change. It could be the models are in a totally uncharted territory here. I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Been a bit out of the loop, but I am getting pretty interested in the system early next week- all models including the UK and CMC have the same basic setup, good CAD behind the NE storm with continued confluence holding in the surface HP and at the same time a system ejecting out of the SW. In GA, ice instead of snow is in the picture, but SC, NC and VA may be in the sweet spot for a good snow event. Still a ways to go but impressed by the good inter-model agreement and we are in the right area regarding the teleconnections, a negative but rising NAO and a AO that is going down. I hope the Euro comes out and has the same basic scenario, but for now my confidence level is pretty high for a system 7-8 days away. It seems to me with good CAD events if NC is expecting snow we get good ice. If NC is expecting ice we get cold rain. Thats the way I usually look at it. If Raleigh is expecting snow with a CAD I expect a good old fashion ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The good thing is its much more amplified and not as strong with the vortex like cheez said. Euro should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z Euro to 90- big change in the GL, short wave digging in is much weaker (that becomes the NE storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z Euro to 90- big change in the GL, short wave digging in is much weaker (that becomes the NE storm) good to hear...............now let's hope it's somewhere b/w the GFS and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z Euro to 90- big change in the GL, short wave digging in is much weaker (that becomes the NE storm) Faster and 30-40m deeper with the southern stream cutoff at day 4 as it enters the Baja, when compared to the 12z GFS & CMC. Looks nothing like the 0z run with the vortex to our north, and is coming into agreement this run with the other guidance, in keeping the lowest heights centered around the UP of Michigan at day 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This run is a lot weaker with the Northeast storm. The Texas shortwave looks like its sharpening up at 132 hours with moisture in Texas . By 144, the Tx. system is pretty far southa nd has moisture along the gulf coast. The NE storm is east of Maine. This is another run of waffling with the Euro but some is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This run looks pretty supressed with the low far into the Gulf. There is a couple of strong s/w coming down the pike from Western Canada and northern Rockies. But atleast the southern system is holding together ok through 150 and its cold enoug for snow from ATL north. (if moisture makes it this far north ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Still no real definite answers on whats going to happen, there area few options any of which could occur. The upstream systems may capture the TEX. system and phase with it, or stall it, pull it north. Or the Tx system could dampen out and be mostly supressed. By 168 , its going out to sea, maybe light snow in part of GA to SC, but not much. The real deal is whats developing with the digging Rockies waves. Also, theres a 1064 high ridging down from Canada toward the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 The mid range big cold shot has vanished this run on the Euo with just your garden variety winter cold spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 One other option (and this so far is my most likely one) is that the Tx system begins to cut across N. Florida and up the East coast, exiting off VA or NC, and is followed by another system from the Mid. Miss or Lower Plains region. The model isn't showing that, yet. But it could happen that way, but that would be a lucky One -two punch and we almost never get that, yet the pattern would argue for that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 As a matter of fact, 850's never get colder than -6 here and surface highs probably stay significantly above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, for CAE on the Monday system.. it MIGHT be a flurry here or there. Nothing to even look out the window for. I refuse to follow this now since it's going to change so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 As a matter of fact, 850's never get colder than -6 here and surface highs probably stay significantly above freezing. the cold is going to be centred in the middle of the country with the big high spilling east of the Rockies spine, with -20 to -26 in abig area along the front range. I'd prefer a mid nation trough, which will allow gulf development and southerly flow, but still be just cold enough here, and then we'd get the big load of cold air. The options are still plentiful on this whole setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like that the Euro is taking huge swings, it shows that it doesn't quite no how to handle everything. This weenie thinks that gives us a better chance to luck out. Also for the storm on Sun - Tues gotta think with how things turned out for Christmas and past storms this has a good chance to trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It has a 1068 to 1070 high spilling south along the Rockies front range and into the Plains. That would be brutal air. Through 198 the southeast coastal is sstill lurking and stalled, with areas of scattered precip back to the nations midsection. Murky flow, but the door is definitely open for something big to happen with the heartland trough so slow back west and located in a potential good spot to pop a system in the Gulf or overrunning, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the cold is going to be centred in the middle of the country with the big high spilling east of the Rockies spine, with -20 to -26 in abig area along the front range. I'd prefer a mid nation trough, which will allow gulf development and southerly flow, but still be just cold enough here, and then we'd get the big load of cold air. The options are still plentiful on this whole setup. I'm as confused as ever on the forecast here. It LOOKS great. I just don't know what form it will take, and when! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This does not look all that bad. Like many have said, plenty of potential here. The low off the SE coast looks like it's just waiting for that bowling ball in the midwest to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm as confused as ever on the forecast here. It LOOKS great. I just don't know what form it will take, and when! Haha, even the crazy weather channel mentioned snow as far South as Atlanta already on TV. They've been getting pretty accurate lately though and I'm impressed since they got a couple guys who aren't too weather dumb compared to others. I just can't slave over this weather anymore. All I can say is there will be weather. That's 100%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 the cold is going to be centred in the middle of the country with the big high spilling east of the Rockies spine, with -20 to -26 in abig area along the front range. I'd prefer a mid nation trough, which will allow gulf development and southerly flow, but still be just cold enough here, and then we'd get the big load of cold air. The options are still plentiful on this whole setup. Oh I agree, I just expect it to be warmer than the models are showing now because the trough axis isn't where it needs to be for us to get dumped on with cold(pre potential storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I agree. It keeps the door open and allows for development to come in, or not... I like that the Euro is taking huge swings, it shows that it doesn't quite no how to handle everything. This weenie thinks that gives us a better chance to luck out. Also for the storm on Sun - Tues gotta think with how things turned out for Christmas and past storms this has a good chance to trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like that the Euro is taking huge swings, it shows that it doesn't quite no how to handle everything. This weenie thinks that gives us a better chance to luck out. Also for the storm on Sun - Tues gotta think with how things turned out for Christmas and past storms this has a good chance to trend NW. I agree. I think the extremes are causing the model runs to go back and forth as they try to center in on the actual event. Have the current models ever dealt with such an extreme pattern such as this one before? If we're talking historic, the previous events would most likely not be recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm lost now. Maybe the Canadian is right. Its been at least somewhat consistent. What a complicated pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's why I would just follow the trends now, the details won't be correct for days. It's nerve wracking to watch the models flip around though. I think the models like drama! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm as confused as ever on the forecast here. It LOOKS great. I just don't know what form it will take, and when! Its still not safe to make a solid forecast call for sure b/c there's so many things going on. But to me one of the biggest likelihoods (but not a forecast) is that the Tx system will begin to hook more northeast than this run shows, swiping snow across the Deep south and up to central VA before exiting the coast, as the Northeast system looks like it will make room. The biggest unknown is what to do with the 2 incoming Rockie's waves, and how far they dig. The models are going to be all over the place at this range and it will take a couple more days to really get a good handle, but that system could end up being the biggest weather maker of the two. With the longwave tough carved out so far west, the GFS looks pretty reasonable at that range, but its all conjecture now. The Tx system may not be as fast as the models show, which would then allow it to merge somewhat with the incoming Rockies system, it just depends on the spacing of all the players, which no model has right yet. No matter how you slice it, theres still plenty of hope for a measurable snow or ice event in the Tenn Valley to Southeast starting Sunday and into much of next week, with 2 separate systems. Also possible the second system winds up the coast as a full fledged blizzard with the motherlode of CaK. air coming in beind it. So, I wouldn't be suprised to see 2 measurable snows in part of the southeast soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 FWIW, 240 hr Euro looks awesome Massive AK block still in place.. s/w diving into the SW.. PV lifting out to 50/50. This pattern is locked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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