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January 2011


BullCityWx

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This has my approval. I think I could live with 10-12" and call it a good winter. It looks like this is going to be a firewood cutting week. I already burned through half of my supply in December.

I know it is off topic but Chickfila's new spicy chicken biscuit tastes as good as that DGEX picture.

So, how much for LaGrange?? LOL!! 21F this morning in Adairsville.

Got to try the new spicy biscuit but is it as good as the Bojangles cajun chicken biscuit?

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So, how much for LaGrange?? LOL!! 21F this morning in Adairsville.

Got to try the new spicy biscuit but is it as good as the Bojangles cajun chicken biscuit?

The goofy is trying to push some spicy ice in here Thur. morning still. I guess I get to find out about supressed..or not so much...and cold..or not so much. T

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Morning folks.....as has been discussed, we are entering a pattern loaded with potential for winter weather fans in the Southeast. At this point, it is all in the potential category.....but sure does look fun when gazing from a distance.

New video and discussion on my blog....in my signature below.

Great Video (as always). Looking forward to the NW flow setup this weekend.

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The Euro is boming another blizzard from DC to NYC with this vortex. That may not be good news for us in regards to our next southwest system. But its cold with this in the wake. It would eclipse our previous cold spells in NC. This is a pretty sizable shift from its previous run, who knows yet if its right.

Our southwest system is healthy at 132 and 144 but with the superbomb still sitting off New Jersey dumping 2 feet of snow :snowman: along the I-95 cities, this may spell supression. We'll see.

This is one storm on the euro I'm not buying...at least not as it advertises. There is virtually zero support for it's solution so I wouldn't be too worried about it.

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So, how much for LaGrange?? LOL!! 21F this morning in Adairsville.

Got to try the new spicy biscuit but is it as good as the Bojangles cajun chicken biscuit?

LaGrange will have dewpoint issues.:thumbsup:

I'd say its better than Bojangles cajun chicken biscuit. Until Chickfila offers a country ham biscuit I will prefer Bo's breakfast offerings as a whole.

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The GFS isn't quite as strong with the Midatlantic/northeast storm, but its a pretty strong one for Boston area. At 144, the southwest system is coming out, but tilted a little positive, but precip is robust over central and south Texas.

Looks like it might be setting up for something good at 156.

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as I mentioned last night, this next Southwst system will probably get absorbed into the next upstream system comng in through the Rockies. This run is about to phase them since they're so close. I'm sure the models are going to be chaotic with how this unfolds, we almost never see this type of setup, I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it, with the strong NE system causing confluence, this should ensure a southern track, but with 2 very healthy s/w coming down the Rockies and Gulf Coast, who knows how this will work out. At 168, a 1036 High over Lake Superior, and the Rockies shortwave really digging thanks to the Upstream amplifying Alaska block. And the Gulf system is diminished.

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as I mentioned last night, this next Southwst system will probably get absorbed into the next upstream system comng in through the Rockies. This run is about to phase them since they're so close. I'm sure the models are going to be chaotic with how this unfolds, we almost never see this type of setup, I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it, with the strong NE system causing confluence, this should ensure a southern track, but with 2 very healthy s/w coming down the Rockies and Gulf Coast, who knows how this will work out. At 168, a 1036 High over Lake Superior, and the Rockies shortwave really digging thanks to the Upstream amplifying Alaska block. And the Gulf system is diminished.

Yea looks like we end up with a clipper on Steroids on Tues into Wed....which if the GFS verified verbatim I would take it even though temps appear to be border line verbatim.

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There is good damming going on, but the surface is a mess across the Lower Miss. Valley into the Southeast. There's really no reason to speculate on this chaotic situation at past 168 hours b/c its extremely complicated. There's so much going on I don't see how the models are going to resolve this situation for a few more days at the earliest. But the bottom line is the threat of some kind of winter storm is there, maybe several small episodes, maybe ending as a big one. The only sure thing is the 1060 mb high in Canada and the cold air over most of the country except Florida.

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Looks like the GFS wants to spit out some flurries for all of NC on Friday night into Saturday though it's so light it might be nothing at all.

I wouldn't sleep on this system. You've got a channeled 500mb vort max tracking into western / central Tennessee coupled with the left exit quadrant of a jet streak, with crashing heights and temperatures. Limited moisture can produce in this type of setup. I would like to see a stronger vort max, but the overall setup is reminiscent of, dare I say, 1/23/03

gfs_300_096s.gif

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the whole run is open to cold+stormy for a long time and a large part of the southern half of the country. Its vague but plenty of opportunity for several episodes of overrunning or Gulf development. We may get our fill of cloudy, cold dreary icy/snowy /freezing drizzly days over the next 2 weeks. And then some.

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Not that DT needs any more fans :rolleyes: but I found his "This Week in Weather" segments to be educating for me and I'm sure non mets and newcomers to this board might get something out of it as well...For those of you who are not familiar, he attaches a windows media sound clip to the site and you follow along and look at images as he talks about them...

Here is the link: http://1664596.sites...ekinwx/JAN2.htm

Just something to add going into this next week to reduce some random questions in the thread...helps understand terms like what PV means, greenland blocking, trough, ULL, etc...things that drive new people crazy.

thank you sir!

I know it is off topic but Chickfila's new spicy chicken biscuit tastes as good as that DGEX picture.

Nice..I reserved mine for next Saturday!

http://www.getspicychicken.com/

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the whole run is open to cold+stormy for a long time and a large part of the southern half of the country. Its vague but plenty of opportunity for several episodes of overrunning or Gulf development. We may get our fill of cloudy, cold dreary icy/snowy /freezing drizzly days over the next 2 weeks. And then some.

Just so long as my new boots can get a real winter workout I'll be happy!

This is probably typical GFS not figuring out how to handle the phase right? Should be interesting to see what the Canadian has to say then the Euro, like you alluded to the models are probably going to be all over the place the next few days.

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the whole run is open to cold+stormy for a long time and a large part of the southern half of the country. Its vague but plenty of opportunity for several episodes of overrunning or Gulf development. We may get our fill of cloudy, cold dreary icy/snowy /freezing drizzly days over the next 2 weeks. And then some.

1lg035faint.gif

I've been saving my pass-out smiley for something like this statement from you.

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I wouldn't sleep on this system. You've got a channeled 500mb vort max tracking into western / central Tennessee coupled with the left exit quadrant of a jet streak, with crashing heights and temperatures. Limited moisture can produce in this type of setup. I would like to see a stronger vort max, but the overall setup is reminiscent of, dare I say, 1/23/03

Just for clarification for folks who don't know

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/

snow.20030123.gif

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the whole run is open to cold+stormy for a long time and a large part of the southern half of the country. Its vague but plenty of opportunity for several episodes of overrunning or Gulf development. We may get our fill of cloudy, cold dreary icy/snowy /freezing drizzly days over the next 2 weeks. And then some.

lol - i dont know that i will ever get my fill of that :scooter: we have to make up for quite a few crappy winters yet

i cant believe how active the pattern is and that we appear to be going into jan. on a colder note, rather than warmer as most feared. obviously the models cannot be taken verbatim with the fast flow, storms, and weird set up....but the general look is definitely a decent one for the se

1lg035faint.gif

I've been saving my pass-out smiley for something like this statement from you.

lol - dang it man, i have been looking for a pass out and wasnt having a lot of luck and you beat me to it :guitar:

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the whole run is open to cold+stormy for a long time and a large part of the southern half of the country. Its vague but plenty of opportunity for several episodes of overrunning or Gulf development. We may get our fill of cloudy, cold dreary icy/snowy /freezing drizzly days over the next 2 weeks. And then some.

I wouldn't get my fill of cold and snowy days if there were a blizzard on Flag Day!

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Been a bit out of the loop, but I am getting pretty interested in the system early next week- all models including the UK and CMC have the same basic setup, good CAD behind the NE storm with continued confluence holding in the surface HP and at the same time a system ejecting out of the SW. In GA, ice instead of snow is in the picture, but SC, NC and VA may be in the sweet spot for a good snow event. Still a ways to go but impressed by the good inter-model agreement and we are in the right area regarding the teleconnections, a negative but rising NAO and a AO that is going down. I hope the Euro comes out and has the same basic scenario, but for now my confidence level is pretty high for a system 7-8 days away.

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I wouldn't sleep on this system. You've got a channeled 500mb vort max tracking into western / central Tennessee coupled with the left exit quadrant of a jet streak, with crashing heights and temperatures. Limited moisture can produce in this type of setup. I would like to see a stronger vort max, but the overall setup is reminiscent of, dare I say, 1/23/03

gfs_300_096s.gif

Also thats a good catch..notice the similarities.

small.eta_12z_300_000hr.gif

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Been a bit out of the loop, but I am getting pretty interested in the system early next week- all models including the UK and CMC have the same basic setup, good CAD behind the NE storm with continued confluence holding in the surface HP and at the same time a system ejecting out of the SW. In GA, ice instead of snow is in the picture, but SC, NC and VA may be in the sweet spot for a good snow event. Still a ways to go but impressed by the good inter-model agreement and we are in the right area regarding the teleconnections, a negative but rising NAO and a AO that is going down. I hope the Euro comes out and has the same basic scenario, but for now my confidence level is pretty high for a system 7-8 days away.

The JMA, which has actually been doing just fine with it's predictions is even developing a major system in the gulf area by hour 192 with 850s cutting into SC and all of NC ahead of it.

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