phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Glad I could help. I'm all for the free dissemination of pertinent info. On to the Euro....quite a monkey wrench on Friday. It drops a 504 dm vortex into Indiana and Ohio and brings it across into NC! Wow, thats colder and stronger than anything we saw in December here. The 850's are crashing through Tenn/Al/Ga and the western CArolinas on Friday, with temps heading down during the day, with snowshowers flying. It develops a coastal near the Chesapeake. Honestly this looks too cold and too far south, but it did this about 48 hours ago If I recall. LOL wow! Will be quite an epic northwest flow event if it verifies. Likely single digits across NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is boming another blizzard from DC to NYC with this vortex. That may not be good news for us in regards to our next southwest system. But its cold with this in the wake. It would eclipse our previous cold spells in NC. This is a pretty sizable shift from its previous run, who knows yet if its right. Our southwest system is healthy at 132 and 144 but with the superbomb still sitting off New Jersey dumping 2 feet of snow along the I-95 cities, this may spell supression. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is boming another blizzard from DC to NYC with this vortex. That may not be good news for us in regards to our next southwest system. But its cold with this in the wake. It would eclipse our previous cold spells in NC. This is a pretty sizable shift from its previous run, who knows yet if its right. Our southwest system is healthy at 132 and 144 but with the superbomb still sitting off New Jersey dumping 2 feet of snow along the I-95 cities, this may spell supression. We'll see. Robert, I think I mentioned it before but we do contract work up in Va at the beltline around DC So if you could keep that in mind I'll take any info in that area you want to expand on.. Thanks again. Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Good grief at the strength and size of the Midatlantic and Northeast Blizzard. They never lose. Anyway, our gulf low is there at 156, anda nice neutral tilt southern Texas shortwave, but we have to get rid of the big Northeast whirling dervish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is boming another blizzard from DC to NYC with this vortex. That may not be good news for us in regards to our next southwest system. But its cold with this in the wake. It would eclipse our previous cold spells in NC. This is a pretty sizable shift from its previous run, who knows yet if its right. Our southwest system is healthy at 132 and 144 but the superbomb still sitting off New Jersey dumping 2 feet of snow along the I-95 cities, this may spell supression. We'll see. FUUUDGE! I hope this is a run where the EURO is still trying to get a handle on things. PLE NTY of time for this to work out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 at 168, the Texas s/w is neg. tilt , but can only do so much in the wake of that behometh in the Northeast Coast. If that thing could be weaker, we'd be facing a great snowstorm for the Tenn Valley and Upper Southeast. Temps are shown to be barely cold enough in some areas (surprisingly warm actually). This run doesn't look quite right on some things, but theres going to be changes I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Foothills,whats going on between 72-96 hour on the 00Z Euro in middle Tn? Wondering if 700-850RH support much QPF here. Its hard to tell since I can only see whats available. I take it any real QPF is South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the euro weakens the southern storm from 1008 to 1012 as it approaches the FL . panhandle, and tries to link it with the upstream system. The jury is still out on this I'm sure. The big Northeast system is a big switch, if it happens, that would hurt our chances. We walk a fine balance. We need more like the GFS, although they're not that far apart, the strength is the difference. Still , plenty of potential for a great southeast Snowstorm In my opinion...so all hope is not lost for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Midatlantic has got to love this run. Talk about a 1-2 punch. The board will be going crazy this week if this holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What an epic pattern for DC to New York City. The ECMWF does try to link it and goes on to give another major snowstorm for the eastern Carolinas up the coast, bypassing my area LOL and I can buy that. The low merges and redevelops again under strong neg. tilt, so the mid Atlantic gets two Whoppers.YOu got to be loving life as a snowlover if you live on either side of New Jersey the last couple of years. I doubt it plays exactly like this, and I still really like th Southeasts' chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the euro weakens the southern storm from 1008 to 1012 as it approaches the FL . panhandle, and tries to link it with the upstream system. The jury is still out on this I'm sure. The big Northeast system is a big switch, if it happens, that would hurt our chances. We walk a fine balance. We need more like the GFS, although they're not that far apart, the strength is the difference. Still , plenty of potential for a great southeast Snowstorm In my opinion...so all hope is not lost for sure. Actually... looks better than 12z... the west coast s/w links up with the southern stream shortwave just in the nick of time... seems too warm though. If this trends more amplified, lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through 222 hours, New Jersey , eastern Pa to Long Island get 25 to 30" combined snow. DC only gets 2 feet. Theres a min of precip shown over southern/sw NC , Upstate to central GA. Lets hope the details don't play out like this. I have a hunch the southern system will be good for us. If not, I question my own sanity at following wx . so intently and getting so little precip to show for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Glad I could help. I'm all for the free dissemination of pertinent info. On to the Euro....quite a monkey wrench on Friday. It drops a 504 dm vortex into Indiana and Ohio and brings it across into NC! Wow, thats colder and stronger than anything we saw in December here. The 850's are crashing through Tenn/Al/Ga and the western CArolinas on Friday, with temps heading down during the day, with snowshowers flying. It develops a coastal near the Chesapeake. Honestly this looks too cold and too far south, but it did this about 48 hours ago If I recall. How rare is it to see a PV drop that far into NC with this set up? I wonder what your thoughts are on this verifying as DT and others seem like it has a snowballs chance....it would definitely be better for the SE to pull the PV more NW, as this run would be suppression city for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So Robert is it safe to say the Euro is on about the same track as the GFS (weenie here trying to understand) through 222 hours, New Jersey , eastern Pa to Long Island get 25 to 30" combined snow. DC only gets 2 feet. Theres a min of precip shown over southern/sw NC , Upstate to central GA. Lets hope the details don't play out like this. I have a hunch the southern system will be good for us. If not, I question my own sanity at following wx . so intently and getting so little precip to show for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 How rare is it to see a PV drop that far into NC with this set up? I wonder what your thoughts are on this verifying as DT and others seem like it has a snowballs chance....it would definitely be better for the SE to pull the PV more NW, as this run would be suppression city for us. I recall a run the Euro overdeveloped a storm in mid December for the Midatlantic. It was still a storng vortex, but not that strong. Only time will tell, but my guess its its too extreme and too far south. Still, if it can snow big in DC to NYC , it will. Lets hope it moves right along. So Robert is it safe to say the Euro is on about the same track as the GFS (weenie here trying to understand) See above. I still very much like our chances. If the Northeast storm moves along and doesn't hold around too long, we'd be set for a winter storm starting Sunday. Its still very far out an dthe details are going to change. The overall pattern is good though. I want to see this precip hole broken where my area is. Let it pour, be it rain or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through 222 hours, New Jersey , eastern Pa to Long Island get 25 to 30" combined snow. DC only gets 2 feet. Theres a min of precip shown over southern/sw NC , Upstate to central GA. Lets hope the details don't play out like this. I have a hunch the southern system will be good for us. If not, I question my own sanity at following wx . so intently and getting so little precip to show for it haha I hope things does end up verbatim as this past model run for us either. However, I think its highly unlikely that the first system (where the polar vortex drops into NC) will verify that amplified. There just isn't very much riding out west to support such an extreme dive of the Polar Vortex. Sure we have a nice area of high heights over northern Canada, but I'd like to see some linage between that feature and the relatively flat ridge over the Western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 thanks but wx don't work like that I'm rooting for eastern GA and western/central SC to get a big one. An Upper low slowly crawling from MCN to CAE with 12" plus for GSP region would be the ticket. They have been sheltered forever now from all good wx events it seems like. Its uncanny how things have worked out there for so many years now. Just go ahead and forecast it Robert, it will come! Just include Gwinnett County in the forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looking at the latest GFS at 180 hrs, it appears there is a wedge formed down into our area, possible overrunning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 we don't want another mid atlantic bomb. That doesn't help me at all. Though the pattern looks to be shaping up for us there is still doubt in all of us. Models have shifted west all year as storm approaches. Look at Christmas it wasn't until the final 24 hours before we were certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 6z DGEX says congrats Missisippi Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Haha. Love it! Great disco on the euro last night folks. Should make for a easier transition back to work today 6z DGEX says congrats Missisippi Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 6z DGEX says congrats Missisippi Lolz Good Grief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hope everyone had a great New Years weekend. Once again, great ongoing discussion - thanks! It's not often that the fine folks at RAH gaze past the 7 day forecast period, so I found this snip from this mornings' AFD very interesting... THE FAVORED EURO MODEL SUITE IS SLOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL GULF COASTTO NC STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK (TARGETING MONDAY AND TUESDAY). THIS IS ONE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IN ADDITION... BITTERLY AND NEAR RECORD COLD SHOULD FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM AS THE FORECAST ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS FOR IT TO TANK TO AT LEAST 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS SOLIDIFIES THE DEEP EAST COAST AND NEW ENGLAND H5 TROUGH WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA. A SIMILAR PATTERN IN MID DECEMBER BROUGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE GSO/RDU AREAS. THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK MAY BE EVEN COLDER SINCE IT WILL BE ARRIVING JUST AS WE WILL BE NEARING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST TIME OF THE WINTER SEASON. -BADGETT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Morning folks.....as has been discussed, we are entering a pattern loaded with potential for winter weather fans in the Southeast. At this point, it is all in the potential category.....but sure does look fun when gazing from a distance. New video and discussion on my blog....in my signature below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Happy New Year to all. Thanks for the great disco and references last night. Even though I hit 55 degrees last week, I still have some snow around here in upslopeville...waiting on some more maybe. Hope all you folks cash in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Birmingham THE OTHER (POTENTIALLY MORE IMPORTANT) ASPECT OF THIS CLIPPERSYSTEM IS THAT IS PROVIDES A COLD AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THENEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR NOW IN THE PLACEMENT... TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN OF MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND. WHILE A PURELY THICKNESS-BASED CURSORY LOOK AT THINGS MIGHT SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN...A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEALS A THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW IN (AT LEAST) THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOW THAT THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS IN THE SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WE CAN START TO HONE IN ON SUNDAY AS THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. AND GIVEN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND EERIE MODEL AGREEMENT...I THINK WE HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO ADD AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST. IF THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES THE THOUGHT...THEN WE MAY ADD A LOW CONFIDENCE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hawt :wub: The whole nation is in the deep freeze after the Southeast gets its Winter storm next Sunday/Monday. I'd almost bet the next system coming across the middle Rockies will link with our Weekend storm, creating a one - two punch for some areas. The big ridge/closed high in northern Alaska carves a monster trough over the Nation, very deep, with yet another southern snow/Winter storm of some type. The cold is extremely impressive, even after taking away for the GFS cold bias at that range. The big closed Alaskan high and nega NAO is to thank, and the time of year is perfect. What a wild winter ride we're in for over the next 2 weeks I think. I'm looking forward to our possibilities these next couple of weeks. Great discussion these past couple of days..the SE CREW rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 6z DGEX says congrats Missisippi Lolz This has my approval. I think I could live with 10-12" and call it a good winter. It looks like this is going to be a firewood cutting week. I already burned through half of my supply in December. I know it is off topic but Chickfila's new spicy chicken biscuit tastes as good as that DGEX picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Morning folks.....as has been discussed, we are entering a pattern loaded with potential for winter weather fans in the Southeast. At this point, it is all in the potential category.....but sure does look fun when gazing from a distance. New video and discussion on my blog....in my signature below. Great video as always Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This has my approval. I think I could live with 10-12" and call it a good winter. It looks like this is going to be a firewood cutting week. I already burned through half of my supply in December. I know it is off topic but Chickfila's new spicy chicken biscuit tastes as good as that DGEX picture. I just had one of those this morning! Absolutely delicious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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