January 2011

[FoothillsNC]

By 144, the southwest ULL is still in good shape, a bit far south, comapred to our others this season, and just southwest of El Paso. The New England Vortex is strong and its very cold in the central and east, with -8 to -10 into NC and TN.

[FoothillsNC]

Pretty much a guess at this point, but the southern stream low is a bit more consolidated this run, and the polar vortex that has been supressing everything the last several runs is getting out of the way a little quicker. Overall, I think we should see a stronger Gulf Low. All will be reveled shortly

I like the way this looks. The trough in Texas is neutral, and slowly moves along being pushed by the British Columbia trough, like the Euro has been showing a while now. This will spread precip across the Deep South very nicely and it has snow from Ark to Tenn at 168. Very nice confluence in the Northeast with the Vortex slowly pulling east, by then theres very cold, dry arctic air in place for the Southeast and Tenn Valley, so this "3 wave system" looks like a great setup to me. After the resolution drops off, the GFS still has a major snowstorm spreading across the upper South, so just considering how cold the air is distributed east to west and very entrenched, this could be the best setup yet. The 5H looks great, of course it may not be right, but it looks legitimate and has plenty of support. The questions to be answered are the usual: timing, when the Vortex in New England moves east, where the Southwest system goes...and most importantly, its tilt in Texas.

A very 1988 look to me.

[Weather Czar]

I like the way this looks. The trough in Texas is neutral, and slowly moves along being pushed by the British Columbia trough, like the Euro has been showing a while now. This will spread precip across the Deep South very nicely and it has snow from Ark to Tenn at 168. Very nice confluence in the Northeast with the Vortex slowly pulling east, by then theres very cold, dry arctic air in place for the Southeast and Tenn Valley, so this "3 wave system" looks like a great setup to me. After the resolution drops off, the GFS still has a major snowstorm spreading across the upper South, so just considering how cold the air is distributed east to west and very entrenched, this could be the best setup yet. The 5H looks great, of course it may not be right, but it looks legitimate and has plenty of support. The questions to be answered are the usual: timing, when the Vortex in New England moves east, where the Southwest system goes...and most importantly, its tilt in Texas.

A very 1988 look to me.

And the best part not having to count on a phase Pure southern stream!

[rduwx]

I like the way this looks. The trough in Texas is neutral, and slowly moves along being pushed by the British Columbia trough, like the Euro has been showing a while now. This will spread precip across the Deep South very nicely and it has snow from Ark to Tenn at 168. Very nice confluence in the Northeast with the Vortex slowly pulling east, by then theres very cold, dry arctic air in place for the Southeast and Tenn Valley, so this "3 wave system" looks like a great setup to me. After the resolution drops off, the GFS still has a major snowstorm spreading across the upper South, so just considering how cold the air is distributed east to west and very entrenched, this could be the best setup yet. The 5H looks great, of course it may not be right, but it looks legitimate and has plenty of support. The questions to be answered are the usual: timing, when the Vortex in New England moves east, where the Southwest system goes...and most importantly, its tilt in Texas.

A very 1988 look to me.

While following this on the 5h map after hr 168 the gfs seems to weaken the wave. Is that due to resolution drop after 168 on the gfs or do you really think the wave would weaken like that?

[FoothillsNC]

The whole nation is in the deep freeze after the Southeast gets its Winter storm next Sunday/Monday. I'd almost bet the next system coming across the middle Rockies will link with our Weekend storm, creating a one - two punch for some areas. The big ridge/closed high in northern Alaska carves a monster trough over the Nation, very deep, with yet another southern snow/Winter storm of some type. The cold is extremely impressive, even after taking away for the GFS cold bias at that range. The big closed Alaskan high and nega NAO is to thank, and the time of year is perfect. What a wild winter ride we're in for over the next 2 weeks I think.

[Weather Czar]

While following this on the 5h map after hr 168 the gfs seems to weaken the wave. Is that due to resolution drop after 168 on the gfs or do you really think the wave would weaken like that?

I noticed that too. Dont know if its lower resolution or if its getting sheared out by the NE vortex.

[Weather Czar]

The whole nation is in the deep freeze after the Southeast gets its Winter storm next Sunday/Monday. I'd almost bet the next system coming across the middle Rockies will link with our Weekend storm, creating a one - two punch for some areas. The big ridge/closed high in northern Alaska carves a monster trough over the Nation, very deep, with yet another southern snow/Winter storm of some type. The cold is extremely impressive, even after taking away for the GFS cold bias at that range. The big closed Alaskan high and nega NAO is to thank, and the time of year is perfect. What a wild winter ride we're in for over the next 2 weeks I think.

WOW!! And I though last year was a dream. If this pattern verifies it will be one to remember.

[FoothillsNC]

While following this on the 5h map after hr 168 the gfs seems to weaken the wave. Is that due to resolution drop after 168 on the gfs or do you really think the wave would weaken like that?

It does it b/c the upstream kicker is hot on its heels. So it has to dampen somewhat, but I'd take my chances with a well developed trough and good divergence in eastern Texas for our area, even with weakening, which is probably overdone. Lets wait to see the Euro on this. It depends on where the NY vortex moves out and how the 3 waves are all moving in tandem. That tandemness will work in everyones favor I think, and allow the Gulf/Texas low to strong and good precip producer. Like I said earlier, I woldn't be surprised to see the first low be followed by another area of snow with the next one a day or 2 later. The PAC jet is going to be intense, and the fact its being shoved so incredibly far south, well, this is very unusual but has happened, and was always accompanied by good snow here.

[phil882]

I like the way this looks. The trough in Texas is neutral, and slowly moves along being pushed by the British Columbia trough, like the Euro has been showing a while now. This will spread precip across the Deep South very nicely and it has snow from Ark to Tenn at 168. Very nice confluence in the Northeast with the Vortex slowly pulling east, by then theres very cold, dry arctic air in place for the Southeast and Tenn Valley, so this "3 wave system" looks like a great setup to me. After the resolution drops off, the GFS still has a major snowstorm spreading across the upper South, so just considering how cold the air is distributed east to west and very entrenched, this could be the best setup yet. The 5H looks great, of course it may not be right, but it looks legitimate and has plenty of support. The questions to be answered are the usual: timing, when the Vortex in New England moves east, where the Southwest system goes...and most importantly, its tilt in Texas.

A very 1988 look to me.

I was just about to mention that... by 180hrs, the strong southern stream shortwave starts to dampen out, but by that time most of the southeast is in the right entrance region of a pretty large jet streak... which is likely helping to enhance precipitation even after we lose significant lift as the 500mb trough dampens out, similar to how the January 1988 snowstorm that hammered Greenville, SC with a foot of snow... their highest snowfall total in the last half-century. The pattern beyond that time gets rather complicated with the western shortwave attempting to move across the United States. However, I don't think its worth getting too caught up in those details. At this point, this run was a step in the right direction!

On the Euro!

[rduwx]

It does it b/c the upstream kicker is hot on its heels. So it has to dampen somewhat, but I'd take my chances with a well developed trough and good divergence in eastern Texas for our area, even with weakening, which is probably overdone. Lets wait to see the Euro on this. It depends on where the NY vortex moves out and how the 3 waves are all moving in tandem. That tandemness will work in everyones favor I think, and allow the Gulf/Texas low to strong and good precip producer. Like I said earlier, I woldn't be surprised to see the first low be followed by another area of snow with the next one a day or 2 later. The PAC jet is going to be intense, and the fact its being shoved so incredibly far south, well, this is very unusual but has happened, and was always accompanied by good snow here.

Thanks Robert! I've never really seen a setup like this since I first started following winter storms 6 years ago. I can already see this is going to be an educational experience for me.

[FoothillsNC]

I was just about to mention that... by 180hrs, the strong southern stream shortwave starts to dampen out, but by that time most of the southeast is in the right entrance region of a pretty large jet streak... which is likely helping to enhance precipitation even after we lose significant lift as the 500mb trough dampens out, similar to how the January 1988 snowstorm that hammered Greenville, SC with a foot of snow... their highest snowfall total in the last half-century. The pattern beyond that time gets rather complicated with the western shortwave attempting to move across the United States. However, I don't think its worth getting too caught up in those details. At this point, this run was a step in the right direction!

On the Euro!

Yes, we want the Euro to hold ground, definitely want it in our camp instead of just the GFS. They basically agree on the overall pattern, of course we could see the southern system get sheared, or even come too far north (although thats my least worry right now). I won't focus on what comes right after that event, since the models are just now clueing in on the details but my guess is another southern system with weak overrunning, and very very cold in the nations heartland, with that huge high ridging down. If the 5H global pattern and ensembles are right, and continue to hold on to that Alaska block, we're heading into rare territory. We've said that once already this season, now we could really start to re-write some things.

[Rankin5150]

The whole nation is in the deep freeze after the Southeast gets its Winter storm next Sunday/Monday. I'd almost bet the next system coming across the middle Rockies will link with our Weekend storm, creating a one - two punch for some areas. The big ridge/closed high in northern Alaska carves a monster trough over the Nation, very deep, with yet another southern snow/Winter storm of some type. The cold is extremely impressive, even after taking away for the GFS cold bias at that range. The big closed Alaskan high and nega NAO is to thank, and the time of year is perfect. What a wild winter ride we're in for over the next 2 weeks I think.

Geez Foothills...the weather commentary from you IS BAR NONE! LOVE IT! Weather porn words at its finest! I showed my wife the maps of the cold progged to sweep the nation and her eyebrows even lifted up. We are about to unfold on some EXTREME cold weather. Simply amazing...

[Jon]

Geez Foothills...the weather commentary from you IS BAR NONE! LOVE IT! Weather porn words at its finest! I showed my wife the maps of the cold progged to sweep the nation and her eyebrows even lifted up. We are about to unfold on some EXTREME cold weather. Simply amazing...

He'll do that...pure weenie food... Chow down. Some of the best write ups in the SE...

Unbelievable indeed...glad we have some precip with this cold to work with, now if we can only see this continue...

[kgar2121]

since i am as uneducated in these matters as one could possibly be and still be breathing (which is why i almost exclusively READ and not POST), i was hoping someone could help me out a little. while i enjoy reading (and TRYING to learn a little) here, i also know we, even me, hate imby questions, especially this far away. so i hope this doesnt seem TOO imby....when exactly is the best chance for wintry precip in w.nc? the ONLY reason i ask, i have to make a decision of whether or not to be out of town next weekend (thurs through sun) by tomorrow and CANT be gone if there is bad weather here. from what i can tell, it looks like the midweek chances are slim to none, and the next threat would be late on sun (i know the timing will shift). i certainly understand that it is still a week away, and will change 25 or 30 times, but as it stands now, is it likely we see anything before sunday? once again, if this is too imby, please ignore/delete. thanks for all the interesting discussion

[snowflake29684]

WOW if the GFS is on the money for the 16th I don't think there would be much of SC/NC left after that one!! And yeah I know it is out in vodoo but wow we are going to have some fun times ahead of us!! Robert or someone any idea about liquid amounts for the weekend storm?

[Lee]

The one winter the coming overall pattern reminds me of in which the entire nation was colder than average was that of 1978-79. Strong -NAO/PDO couplet. Although, that winter got a later start in that the true solid lower 48 cold didn't come until January as December was the pivotal month.

Here's link: http://climvis.ncdc....57282104492.gif

[HKY18]

WOW if the GFS is on the money for the 16th I don't think there would be much of SC/NC left after that one!! And yeah I know it is out in vodoo but wow we are going to have some fun times ahead of us!! Robert or someone any idea about liquid amounts for the weekend storm?

its too early to look at qpf right now honestly just have to look at the upper lvl pattern almost always this far out. qpf number will change 100 times between now and next weekend right now we just need to continue monitoring trends in the models till tuesday- thursday time frame and then start getting into more specifics.

[snowflake29684]

K thanks that is what I was thinking!!

its too early to look at qpf right now honestly just have to look at the upper lvl pattern almost always this far out. qpf number will change 100 times between now and next weekend right now we just need to continue monitoring trends in the models till tuesday- thursday time frame and then start getting into more specifics.

[FoothillsNC]

The one winter the coming overall pattern reminds me of in which the entire nation was colder than average was that of 1978-79. Strong -NAO/PDO couplet. Although, that winter got a later start in that the true solid lower 48 cold didn't come until January as December was the pivotal month.

Here's link: http://climvis.ncdc....57282104492.gif

the late 70's were good winters here (and probably most of the SE). Even though I was young around 8 to 10, I remember several storms having thunder and lightning, and being the crazy chubby kid I was, walking in it with my older brother, about a mile away to the store for a slushie and snickers.

[rduwx]

since i am as uneducated in these matters as one could possibly be and still be breathing (which is why i almost exclusively READ and not POST), i was hoping someone could help me out a little. while i enjoy reading (and TRYING to learn a little) here, i also know we, even me, hate imby questions, especially this far away. so i hope this doesnt seem TOO imby....when exactly is the best chance for wintry precip in w.nc? the ONLY reason i ask, i have to make a decision of whether or not to be out of town next weekend (thurs through sun) by tomorrow and CANT be gone if there is bad weather here. from what i can tell, it looks like the midweek chances are slim to none, and the next threat would be late on sun (i know the timing will shift). i certainly understand that it is still a week away, and will change 25 or 30 times, but as it stands now, is it likely we see anything before sunday? once again, if this is too imby, please ignore/delete. thanks for all the interesting discussion

Hey kgar...just going by tonight's 0z gfs run it shows winter precip starting the morning of Monday 1/10 but as you mentioned this is going to change several times. This could be a major snowstorm or this could be suppressed in the gulf and we get nothing. Still way to early to tell. The best advice I could give is to just keep reading here during model runs to see what the latest is.

[phil882]

Yes, we want the Euro to hold ground, definitely want it in our camp instead of just the GFS. They basically agree on the overall pattern, of course we could see the southern system get sheared, or even come too far north (although thats my least worry right now). I won't focus on what comes right after that event, since the models are just now clueing in on the details but my guess is another southern system with weak overrunning, and very very cold in the nations heartland, with that huge high ridging down. If the 5H global pattern and ensembles are right, and continue to hold on to that Alaska block, we're heading into rare territory. We've said that once already this season, now we could really start to re-write some things.

Yea its actually remarkable the amount of agreement both the GFS and EURO have with a powerful... even record setting -AO regime setting up beyond 180 hours. Such a pattern will spell frigid conditions across most of the United States, and keep in mind that even under the same anomalously low 500mb setup we had in December, surface temperatures are likely to even be colder due to the fact that we are entering the 2-3 week stretch of average minimum yearly temperature values in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, to see such a record -AO getting established in the heart of winter should spell an even colder pattern than we saw in December.

The one feature of my greatest interest that has the potential to "make or break" this very cold pattern is the huge block progged to develop over Alaska. This is extremely rare to see such a strong PACIFIC blocking signature show up in a strong La Nina, but here you go. Both the GFS and EURO show this block exceeding 576dm in intensity, which is almost on par with the extreme block that formed in December over Greenland that had 1-2 week repercussions on the overall synoptic pattern in the United States. Now normally strong long-wave features in the northern latitudes retrograde with respect to time, moving towards the west while shortwave features in the mid-latitudes move to the east. This is what happened with the Greenland Blocked that formed in December, and it is what is progged to happen with the less intense, but still significant Greenland Block forming currently. However, both the GFS and the EURO show this feature actually sliding to the east slowly reconnecting with the west pacific ridge in the long range. If this does indeed occur, than we will have our extremely cold pattern in the east. However, I am skeptical, since this goes against the natural tendency for long-wave features to move westward in the upper latitudes. If this feature were to instead back westward, a lot of the brutally cold air that will be pushing over into Canada due to cross-polar flow will slide into the Western United States, and the southeast ridge will finally have a chance to rear its ugly head. So while the models look amazing in the long range, be weary of the motion of this very strong block over Alaska.

[BullCityWx]

I dont know if anyone's noticed but the bufkit warehouse has now added EWRF and RUC to it's bufkit data.

[FoothillsNC]

Yea its actually remarkable the amount of agreement both the GFS and EURO have with a powerful... even record setting -AO regime setting up beyond 180 hours. Such a pattern will spell frigid conditions across most of the United States, and keep in mind that even under the same anomalously low 500mb setup we had in December, surface temperatures are likely to even be colder due to the fact that we are entering the 2-3 week stretch of average minimum yearly temperature values in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, to see such a record -AO getting established in the heart of winter should spell an even colder pattern than we saw in December. ......

Excellent post. I'm thinking the same thing, at some point the mother lode could end up in the western half , or part of it, or part II of it, which would place the Southeast in the ridge. And a warm one at that. I was think in late December that we'd be seeing signs of it now, but its delayed again due to the dual blocks. At some point in the next month , it will probably break down. But the recurring nao is also likely to re-establish the cold here shortly after. Who knows really. I haven't checked SST lately but maybe HKYWx had it right all along with the anomalies south of Greenland and this is one of those years that just falls into place for us. We're certainly due, and we're also due to have multiple successive cold/stormy winters, regardless of enso states. And if you really want to think outside the box, our good record set only goes back barely 100 years. That's absolutely nothing in terms of geologic time, not a drop in the bucket. Who's to say we're not currently embarking on a completely new set of atmospheric/climatic conditions, ones that ruled for a generation or longer , which shows up in other non-weather related records, like the 1500's for example. Or even more diverse than that. Things can change suddenly and without much warning. Nature is fickle.I've been witness to that in the last 10 to 12 years where suddenly rain patterns shifted substantially on a dime. Its very small geographically though.

[Uncle Nasty]

With all the cold air in place I dont know if that wont be much more suppressed than shown.

[phil882]

Excellent post. I'm thinking the same thing, at some point the mother lode could end up in the western half , or part of it, or part II of it, which would place the Southeast in the ridge. And a warm one at that. I was think in late December that we'd be seeing signs of it now, but its delayed again due to the dual blocks. At some point in the next month , it will probably break down. But the recurring nao is also likely to re-establish the cold here shortly after. Who knows really. I haven't checked SST lately but maybe HKYWx had it right all along with the anomalies south of Greenland and this is one of those years that just falls into place for us. We're certainly due, and we're also due to have multiple successive cold/stormy winters, regardless of enso states. And if you really want to think outside the box, our good record set only goes back barely 100 years. That's absolutely nothing in terms of geologic time, not a drop in the bucket. Who's to say we're not currently embarking on a completely new set of atmospheric/climatic conditions, ones that ruled for a generation or longer , which shows up in other non-weather related records, like the 1500's for example. Or even more diverse than that. Things can change suddenly and without much warning. Nature is fickle.

Great thoughts... I've been following this most recent solar minimum the past several years, and there is a nice discussion ongoing of its influence to the -NAO/-AO pattern in one of the euro threads back on the main discussion forum. I think considering that this solar minimum is on the same length as those experienced back in the early 1800's its likely having an influence on our climate and current sensible weather. This past minimum was comparable in length to those during the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800's, a period marked by colder than normal temperatures towards the tail end of the little ice age. So perhapse the lack of an active sun is helping out the -NAO signature even in a year where it would have been believed that the Strong La Nina would have overpowered the index.

Just to give you an idea of how this current solar cycle is pairing up with the Dalton Minimum... nearly on par.

Now going back to what you were discussing... if we do get a recurring -NAO, that could once again save us if the Alaskan block tries to retrograde as would be expected. The signal is there in the ensembles pictured below. However, this would likely not support extreme cold, but more or less the same magnitude cold we experienced in December... which was well cold enough . In order to have a record breaking cold episode of those like what what seen in January 1985... we really need the Pacific block to hold firm to keep the cross polar flow intact... the -NAO might actually help to cutoff this flow and prevent a more powerful polar vortex from swooping down into the mid-latitudes.

[IWC]

Excellent post. I'm thinking the same thing, at some point the mother lode could end up in the western half , or part of it, or part II of it, which would place the Southeast in the ridge. And a warm one at that. I was think in late December that we'd be seeing signs of it now, but its delayed again due to the dual blocks. At some point in the next month , it will probably break down. But the recurring nao is also likely to re-establish the cold here shortly after. Who knows really. I haven't checked SST lately but maybe HKYWx had it right all along with the anomalies south of Greenland and this is one of those years that just falls into place for us. We're certainly due, and we're also due to have multiple successive cold/stormy winters, regardless of enso states. And if you really want to think outside the box, our good record set only goes back barely 100 years. That's absolutely nothing in terms of geologic time, not a drop in the bucket. Who's to say we're not currently embarking on a completely new set of atmospheric/climatic conditions, ones that ruled for a generation or longer , which shows up in other non-weather related records, like the 1500's for example. Or even more diverse than that. Things can change suddenly and without much warning. Nature is fickle.I've been witness to that in the last 10 to 12 years where suddenly rain patterns shifted substantially on a dime. Its very small geographically though.

Robert I read your post all the times and you know I'm one sided on the weather but I'm learning from this forum and the Mets like yourself that give me great insight as to what to expect for the up comming weeks Again I just want to thank you guys for the great work and hours and hours you devote to this forum. To make guys like me look good to my clients, they ask me how I knew this was going to happen days befor the local weather stations breathe a word of inclement weather on the air waves. your insight helps me plan and order materials for an up coming event. thanks again . Ray Grimes The Inclement Weather Contractor Inc.

[Jon]

Not that DT needs any more fans but I found his "This Week in Weather" segments to be educating for me and I'm sure non mets and newcomers to this board might get something out of it as well...For those of you who are not familiar, he attaches a windows media sound clip to the site and you follow along and look at images as he talks about them...

Here is the link: http://1664596.sites...ekinwx/JAN2.htm

Just something to add going into this next week to reduce some random questions in the thread...helps understand terms like what PV means, greenland blocking, trough, ULL, etc...things that drive new people crazy.

[farleydawg79]

Props to Queencitywx for the info:

This website from ISU (Iowa State University- GO CYCLONES) is pretty cool:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/bufkit.html

Go to DATA SOURCES

Check out the GFS 00Z output for Athens, GA

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bu...s/gfs3_kahn.dat

[farleydawg79]

I dont know if anyone's noticed but the bufkit warehouse has now added EWRF and RUC to it's bufkit data.

Thanks for the INFO...

-FarleyDawg79

[FoothillsNC]

Robert I read your post all the times and you know I'm one sided on the weather but I'm learning from this forum and the Mets like yourself that give me great insight as to what to expect for the up comming weeks Again I just want to thank you guys for the great work and hours and hours you devote to this forum. To make guys like me look good to my clients, they ask me how I knew this was going to happen days befor the local weather stations breathe a word of inclement weather on the air waves. your insight helps me plan and order materials for an up coming event. thanks again . Ray Grimes The Inclement Weather Contractor Inc.

Glad I could help. I'm all for the free dissemination of pertinent info. On to the Euro....quite a monkey wrench on Friday. It drops a 504 dm vortex into Indiana and Ohio and brings it across into NC! Wow, thats colder and stronger than anything we saw in December here. The 850's are crashing through Tenn/Al/Ga and the western CArolinas on Friday, with temps heading down during the day, with snowshowers flying. It develops a coastal near the Chesapeake. Honestly this looks too cold and too far south, but it did this about 48 hours ago If I recall.