burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I don't see any way for that moisture to get up here without pushing the 850 line into VA, especially if the low doesn't deepen significantly. Yea was hoping that low might of gotten better, looks like it's just going to slide OTS after that little deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Excellent writeup, I dont think it could have been explained any better. Thanks. I'm looking forward to the upcoming pattern. Like Foothills says, it should provide several opportunities. I totally agree, even though I'm not particularly sold on any one of them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea was hoping that low might of gotten better, looks like it's just going to slide OTS after that little deepening. I guess the one thing we can say is that it IS the 84 hr NAM. There isn't a good cold air feed, but I suppose there could be some phasing. If that is a possibility, then we might be in business. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea was hoping that low might of gotten better, looks like it's just going to slide OTS after that little deepening. Burger if you remember you said that about our Christmas storm but I'd like to remind you they all have been trending back to the west from 72 hours and less. Just a thought that came to me when I read your thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 00z NAM could be getting interesting at 84 Its a good overrunning soaker for the deep south. I'd almost bet the precip would get further north than the NAM shows (usually all precip events slated in the SE end up further north) however, we'd still probably be a little too far north of the good rates up here, but it could get very close. One spot that still want to keep a watch on this is extreme N GA /se TENN and sw NC, maybe northern SC or southern NC, and the mtns of course. The winds at 5H do go swly a little, maybe early enough to get moisture up here than shown. Even if it did, temps would probably be a problem for most. Theres a big difference in the 12z and 00z, check out how the 5H closed low west of southern Cal/Baja is now. Very well defined. Thats the one that's forecast to get booted east starting about Friday, and may (or not) develop a Gulf low next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The geography and latitude of our area makes it very, very difficult for us to have bitterly cold air without suppression... Well written Cold Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Its a good overrunning soaker for the deep south. I'd almost bet the precip would get further north than the NAM shows (usually all precip events slated in the SE end up further north) however, we'd still probably be a little too far north of the good rates up here, but it could get very close. One spot that still want to keep a watch on this is extreme N GA /se TENN and sw NC, maybe northern SC or southern NC, and the mtns of course. The winds at 5H do go swly a little, maybe early enough to get moisture up here than shown. Even if it did, temps would probably be a problem for most. Theres a big difference in the 12z and 00z, check out how the 5H closed low west of southern Cal/Baja is now. Very well defined. Thats the one that's forecast to get booted east starting about Friday, and may (or not) develop a Gulf low next weekend. Yea, TBH I'm not really expecting anything this week like everyone else, but sometimes we get sneaked up on so it might be something to watch. With the NAM trending how it is, 00z should be interesting especially with that piece of energy you mentioned Robert. I might actually stay up for the GFS tonight lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The geography and latitude of our area makes it very, very difficult for us to have bitterly cold air without suppression... Well written Cold Rain! Thanks very much. I probably missed some scenarios, but very rarely are temps not a concern (if you have abundant moisture). It would be really cool to have a storm coming in that you absolutely KNEW it will be cold enough. I guess I should move up north if I want that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks very much. I probably missed some scenarios, but very rarely are temps not a concern (if you have abundant moisture). It would be really cool to have a storm coming in that you absolutely KNEW it will be cold enough. I guess I should move up north if I want that, though. The last BONAFIDE storm that I personally remember being golden was Feb, 2004! That one hammered CLT and surrounding areas. I picked up close to 16" and a couple of spots 10 miles to the SW of me logged in 24" (Lake Wylie area). This storm (temp wise) was shown for days and we never had to bite our nails. The only thing that kept changing was the QPF. The best storm I was ever a part of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well considering we didn't get to double digits last winter and just finishing at our average when everyone north/south/east/west of us was killing it would really suck to finish this season at our average and not hit double digits. We haven't hit double digits in seven years (2004). So I will be extremely happy with a 3-4" event to put us over 10" for the year. It's probably been 50+ years since we have had 2 6"+ events on a season so that's probably not realistic. I think it all has to do w/ expectations heading into the winter. Last winter we ended up w/ a little over 8" I believe but I was kind of disappointed because my expectations were high. This year with us having a moderate La Nina my expectations were low. Don't get me wrong, I'll be happy w/ more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The last BONAFIDE storm that I personally remember being golden was Feb, 2004! That one hammered CLT and surrounding areas. I picked up close to 16" and a couple of spots 10 miles to the SW of me logged in 24" (Lake Wylie area). This storm (temp wise) was shown for days and we never had to bite our nails. The only thing that kept changing was the QPF. The best storm I was ever a part of... I need to go back and look at the case study of that one. I don't remember if that's the one where you guys got hammered and Raleigh got like 3 inches or something. I know that happened with one of those storms around that time. But I guess that's payback from the Jan. 2000 storm. Yeah it's awesome when you don't have to worry about temps. In most of those cases you end up working about QPF though. We can always find something to worry about in the SE. I guess that's one of the things that makes snow so special, when it does happen, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thought Id throw this out there. Its a pretty pic off Rays yesterday and brought to my attention just how common it was throughout December 2010 even where I live to see the ponds,Lakes and streams frozen over for such a long durartion. Ive seen them freeze over during cold snaps briefly over the past winters, but never as long as they did this past month. I'm thinking by next weekend here at the house they will become frozen again. It takes some cold air to freeze a moving body of water like the New River and on top of that allow snow accumulation to build up like it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The last BONAFIDE storm that I personally remember being golden was Feb, 2004! That one hammered CLT and surrounding areas. I picked up close to 16" and a couple of spots 10 miles to the SW of me logged in 24" (Lake Wylie area). This storm (temp wise) was shown for days and we never had to bite our nails. The only thing that kept changing was the QPF. The best storm I was ever a part of... If I'm not mistaken that was an ULL that CLT was in a perfect position for. I remember I was disappointed w/ our totals here after seeing what area's to the west of me got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If I'm not mistaken that was an ULL that CLT was in a perfect position for. I remember I was disappointed w/ our totals here after seeing what area's to the west of me got. Here in Randolph County, Jburns got 20 inches, I cashed in with 17 from that one. Thunder snow was awesome. It kinda just trained right over us that evening. Its up their with 2000 storm and the 2002 mega Ice storm as far as Major winter storms for our county that Ive witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Here in Randolph County, Jburns got 20 inches, I cashed in with 17 from that one. Thunder snow was awesome. It kinda just trained right over us that evening. Its up their with 2000 storm and the 2002 mega Ice storm as far as Major winter storms for our county that Ive witnessed. Yea, after my last post I had to go back and make sure I was thinking of the right storm and it was. Here is the totals of that storm for those not familiar w/ it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Here in Randolph County, Jburns got 20 inches, I cashed in with 17 from that one. Thunder snow was awesome. It kinda just trained right over us that evening. Its up their with 2000 storm and the 2002 mega Ice storm as far as Major winter storms for our county that Ive witnessed. Yep, 2000-2004 were awesome for my area. Now we are caught up in Burgers Triangle of snowless hell. Not his fault, just reminds me how things can change. I hope 2010 and beyond are a good jumpstart for some awesome winter memories. Especially hoping Robert (Foothills) can cash in. He deserves to get an awesome snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea, after my last post I had to go back and make sure I was thinking of the right storm and it was. Here is the totals of that storm for those not familiar w/ it. Aaahhh, yes. That's the one I remember. Though, Raleigh did a bit better than the 3 inches I suggested earlier. I just remember hearing all the reports of thundersnow to the west and being jealous. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The last BONAFIDE storm that I personally remember being golden was Feb, 2004! That one hammered CLT and surrounding areas. I picked up close to 16" and a couple of spots 10 miles to the SW of me logged in 24" (Lake Wylie area). This storm (temp wise) was shown for days and we never had to bite our nails. The only thing that kept changing was the QPF. The best storm I was ever a part of... and just to your west amounts tapered very quickly. It was my last good snowstorm here, I got around 10" and it snowed for seemingly 24 hours with hardly any break, but I was jealous of the the amounts on the south side of Charlotte around 2 feet. They lucked up with the ULL parking a while. That was the last snowstorm for me that worked out about as I expected and wasn't worried about much of anything. The March 2009 was a runner up here with 9" in 6 hours. The Jan 2003 surprise is the only other big one this decade. Ooops last decade. Still , no foot here since 1988. And thats too long. 87 and 88 both had foot+ storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Aaahhh, yes. That's the one I remember. Though, Raleigh did a bit better than the 3 inches I suggested earlier. I just remember hearing all the reports of thundersnow to the west and being jealous. LOL! Oh, and look at the gradient in Orange Co. A foot in the SW corner to 3 inches in the NE corner, probably right over Widre's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Oh, and look at the gradient in Orange Co. A foot in the SW corner to 3 inches in the NE corner, probably right over Widre's house. ...Can you imagine if something like that happened in the upcoming future. If you thought he was bad in the obs thread during the Christmas storm, he would blow a gasket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yep, 2000-2004 were awesome for my area. Now we are caught up in Burgers Triangle of snowless hell. Not his fault, just reminds me how things can change. I hope 2010 and beyond are a good jumpstart for some awesome winter memories. Especially hoping Robert (Foothills) can cash in. He deserves to get an awesome snowstorm! thanks but wx don't work like that I'm rooting for eastern GA and western/central SC to get a big one. An Upper low slowly crawling from MCN to CAE with 12" plus for GSP region would be the ticket. They have been sheltered forever now from all good wx events it seems like. Its uncanny how things have worked out there for so many years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ...Can you imagine if something like that happened in the upcoming future. If you thought he was bad in the obs thread during the Christmas storm, he would blow a gasket! Yeah he would! Although he was surprisingly positive about the Christmas storm, even when the models took it away. It was an interesting phenomenon to witness indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 and just to your west amounts tapered very quickly. It was my last good snowstorm here, I got around 10" and it snowed for seemingly 24 hours with hardly any break, but I was jealous of the the amounts on the south side of Charlotte around 2 feet. They lucked up with the ULL parking a while. That was the last snowstorm for me that worked out about as I expected and wasn't worried about much of anything. The March 2009 was a runner up here with 9" in 6 hours. The Jan 2003 surprise is the only other big one this decade. Ooops last decade. Still , no foot here since 1988. And thats too long. 87 and 88 both had foot+ storms. Last years January storm was a storm that we knew was going to happen well in advance also. Now I thought our totals were going to be higer but the convection in the gulf killed that and we got caught in a warm layer w/ sleet for a little but still ended up w/ 5.5". It was a good sledding storm though...My kids had a ball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Still , no foot here since 1988. And thats too long. 87 and 88 both had foot+ storms. I remember a heavy snow in April 1987, it shut down alot of east TN. I was really young and dont remember alot of details, but I remember it being really warm a few days before. So i guess one might consider it a FREAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 thanks but wx don't work like that I'm rooting for eastern GA and western/central SC to get a big one. An Upper low slowly crawling from MCN to CAE with 12" plus for GSP region would be the ticket. They have been sheltered forever now from all good wx events it seems like. Its uncanny how things have worked out there for so many years now. Thx Robert......our luck has to change sometime......and the longer it goes the bigger it's going to be when it happens..... At least that's what i keep telling myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The pattern seems ripe. I think we're due another Carolina Crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Watching the gfs, since hour 36 Im waiting on our low to eject out of the SW. At Hour 90 it still hasn't moved. "Cutoff City" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I remeber the snow storm of 88 it cripled Columbia for a week!! we had power lines down everywhere for a week there was no school!! thanks but wx don't work like that I'm rooting for eastern GA and western/central SC to get a big one. An Upper low slowly crawling from MCN to CAE with 12" plus for GSP region would be the ticket. They have been sheltered forever now from all good wx events it seems like. Its uncanny how things have worked out there for so many years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the GFS has a light clipper type snow Friday, its not looking moderate or strong right now, but a few flakes in part of Tenn, NC, outside of the downslope regions. At hour 120 the NY vortex is strong, and the southern Cal. upper low is slowly beginning to move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Pretty much a guess at this point, but the southern stream low is a bit more consolidated this run, and the polar vortex that has been supressing everything the last several runs is getting out of the way a little quicker. Overall, I think we should see a stronger Gulf Low. All will be reveled shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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