DaculaWeather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Like Robert said, don't read too much into the longer distance details, the main focus is getting the correct pattern in place, which it appears is starting to happen. Patience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This Christmas I asked my granddad what was the most snow he ever experienced here. He said in March 1960 they had 3 heavy snows on 3 consecutive Wednesdays, and it also snowed some of the days in between. He described it as if the roads were impassible throughout that whole time until around Easter. This was in Walhalla,SC. I sure hope we all get to experience something like that in our lifetimes. I have heard these same tales of the back to back to back snows in the 60's! As odd as it has been this may be the time for such a repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well how are we supposed to get storms out of this when the cold suppresses everything? Sorry if I'm not reading something right; just curious. There seems to be alot of excitement about the potential pattern for cold but how does this translate into snow potential? The two don't seem to mix. Remember how at this range the GFS was saying the Christmas storm was not going to happen? Yea pretty much that. Not saying it's the same but there are a lot of players involved and if the models are reading one wrong it can change a lot. This will be a 3 day out model game with storms, the LR is simply there to say what the over all setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd be interested in knowing how you like it and ease of use. I've been considering one myself along with the pole. I love the thing. Today when it was raining hard the vuew was saying it's raining cats and dogs.. we all got a charge out of that ! I went to HD and got a 6 ft fence post to mount it on no need to pay them to ship you a pole. as for the ease of use it sits there and runs itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 from GSP This tremendous model spread makes confidence on the ejecting southern stream energy very low through next weekend. Using a blend of guidance solutions would allow a surface wave to develop somewhere near the Texas Gulf Coast on Sat...and move it eastward toward North Florida through Sunday. This could mean snow across the forecast area Sat night through Sunday...possibly mixed with rain in southeast sections. However...it is far too early and uncertain to advertise more than slight chances of rain/snow outside the mountains...with chance snow probability of precipitation in the mountains temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below normal Friday through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Here is a pretty cool link I found for the Feb-March 1960 pattern: http://www.erh.noaa....eb-Mar_1960.pdf I didn't know GSP made one last year? I put a big case study on EasternUSWx back about 2 or 3 years ago, Unfortunately, its gone now. There's a lot of case studies I did there that are forever lost, but I did save all the pertinent info, just not in a nice format like I put on that site. Probably several hundred hours of research/case studies on there that I never had time to go back and get. Lots of stuff has happened since October that required my immediate attention. Anyway, long story short, Shelby got 35" to 40" of snow between February and March 1960, total...depending on which source to believe. The Southwest piedmont was the sweet spot, within a sweet spot, so to speak. Unlike days of now for sure. Most of that fell in a 3 week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Foothills...are there any interesitng things showing on the ensembles? yes, the pattern would support snow and winter storms tracking through us. Don't know exactly when yet, but the first real threat is next weekend with the Southwest system. Then more threats after that. Its already been a great "winter" for many of us, but there's probably more on the way in terms of accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yes, the pattern would support snow and winter storms tracking through us. Don't know exactly when yet, but the first real threat is next weekend with the Southwest system. Then more threats after that. Its already been a great "winter" for many of us, but there's probably more on the way in terms of accumulating snows. Thanks for the response....That's sorta what I gathered looking at the goofy today...deleted my post after I posted it...sounded like a stupid post....Thanks for taking the time to answer....always helps when a pro backs up what you were already thinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There is also the one about snow laying around for 5 or 7 days meaning more is on the way....yesterday I rode by a golf course, the temp was in the low 60's, the guys playing had on shorts and short sleeve shorts, there was snow still on the north side of hills and shady spots, and the pond was froze over, it was a very odd thing to see. I also thought if the golfers were smart they would aim for the ponds I bet they get a wicked bounce off the ice......... LOL I played yesterday. Got free relief off the snow patches, but if you were that far over you weren't doing great to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Don't know if anyone noticed but on the 18z NAM out to 84hrs. it looks totally different from the 12z and 18z GFS...granted it looks to come in too late for us to see winter precip but it just shows how hard it's already getting for the models to handle this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Don't know if anyone noticed but on the 18z NAM out to 84hrs. it looks totally different from the 12z and 18z GFS...granted it looks to come in too late for us to see winter precip but it just shows how hard it's already getting for the models to handle this setup. Just saw now that you mentioned it, honestly don't look at the nam at 84hrs hardly ever, but I haven't seen one model have a good handle on this event...the event next week especially. I feel like the models noticing the chance for a MECS or HECS after the 10th is pretty good, but next week I have no idea what will happen in the SE...Flurries?? 2"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just saw now that you mentioned it, honestly don't look at the nam at 84hrs hardly ever, but I haven't seen one model have a good handle on this event...the event next week especially. I feel like the models noticing the chance for a MECS or HECS after the 10th is pretty good, but next week I have no idea what will happen in the SE...Flurries?? 2"?? I just bought some winter boots, so I probably jinxed us. I wanted something just in case we get some good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I have heard these same tales of the back to back to back snows in the 60's! As odd as it has been this may be the time for such a repeat! Yep, my grandmother told me about it a few times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I just bought some winter boots, so I probably jinxed us. I wanted something just in case we get some good snows. take - them - back - NOW lol echoing some of the other recent posts, this winter has already surpassed many of the last few (not last year of course) for the entire winter, and so far this year its one month. i am loving this pattern we are in and hope most of us can cash in again. its hard to fathom two back to back winter in the se with cold, snow etc. its been a long, long time since that has happened. its down to 34 here, after a high of 56...add in the winds and its feeling awfully cold again maybe my memory is just pretty bad, but i dont recall that many times the last few years where several nws offices have been at least mentioning snow/cold/winter in their afds for events taht are several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yep, my grandmother told me about it a few times as well. March of 1960 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Remember how at this range the GFS was saying the Christmas storm was not going to happen? Yea pretty much that. Not saying it's the same but there are a lot of players involved and if the models are reading one wrong it can change a lot. This will be a 3 day out model game with storms, the LR is simply there to say what the over all setup is. Yeah, I remember that. Everything showed a northern solution, then it trended south to the gulf. And I'm sure there were scientific reasons why the mets knew that didn't make sense because they fully expected the trend south; and voiced it. I think it was the blocking pattern if I'm not mistaken. I'm curious if there's a met/scientific thought as to how we can get good cold in the SE and not suppress anything. Overall I guess, not specifically for a certain storm but as the next couple week pattern presents itself. Is there something in the ensembles that is a telltale sign. Just a weenie trying to understand what to look for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 take - them - back - NOW lol echoing some of the other recent posts, this winter has already surpassed many of the last few (not last year of course) for the entire winter, and so far this year its one month. i am loving this pattern we are in and hope most of us can cash in again. its hard to fathom two back to back winter in the se with cold, snow etc. its been a long, long time since that has happened. its down to 34 here, after a high of 56...add in the winds and its feeling awfully cold again maybe my memory is just pretty bad, but i dont recall that many times the last few years where several nws offices have been at least mentioning snow/cold/winter in their afds for events taht are several days out. Yea when a cold front comes through like this it's always fun, the temp is dropping like a rock and when walking the dog you could just feel the cold in the wind. Haha and that's why I jumped the gun and got some good snow boots cause of everything looking to just line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 from GSP This tremendous model spread makes confidence on the ejecting southern stream energy very low through next weekend. Using a blend of guidance solutions would allow a surface wave to develop somewhere near the Texas Gulf Coast on Sat...and move it eastward toward North Florida through Sunday. This could mean snow across the forecast area Sat night through Sunday...possibly mixed with rain in southeast sections. However...it is far too early and uncertain to advertise more than slight chances of rain/snow outside the mountains...with chance snow probability of precipitation in the mountains temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below normal Friday through Sunday. A warm pocket will no doubt develop over the upstate and screw us just like it always has. Soil temps will probably be too warm also. If we get snow, it probably won't even stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 A warm pocket will no doubt develop over the upstate and screw us just like it always has. Soil temps will probably be too warm also. If we get snow, it probably won't even stick. Especially since you brought that bouncing, blue thingy back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well I think I'm finally over the Christmas storm hangover and ready to track something. No matter what happens the rest of the winter I have to consider this winter a success. My expectations weren't very high coming into this winter and to have already had 7 inches w/ January, February, and March still to come, I couldn't be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yes, the pattern would support snow and winter storms tracking through us. Don't know exactly when yet, but the first real threat is next weekend with the Southwest system. Then more threats after that. Its already been a great "winter" for many of us, but there's probably more on the way in terms of accumulating snows. The forecast positive height anomalies are huge; so big in fact, the models had to add an extra bar at the right end of the scale. Does this represent some sort of western hemisphere Arctic "thaw?" Whatever the case, the positive anomalies dwarf the negative ones. One might one make of that? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well I think I'm finally over the Christmas storm hangover and ready to track something. No matter what happens the rest of the winter I have to consider this winter a success. My expectations weren't very high coming into this winter and to have already had 7 inches w/ January, February, and March still to come, I couldn't be happier. I'm shooting for a record breaker here. I've had 4.0" and the max seasonal is around 35" I think, so I've got about 31" more to go! Its a long shot, but I'm going to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm shooting for a record breaker here. I've had 4.0" and the max seasonal is around 35" I think, so I've got about 31" more to go! Its a long shot, but I'm going to try. I could handle that Robert! I can't even begin to comprehend that amount of snow in a winter but I would be willing to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, I remember that. Everything showed a northern solution, then it trended south to the gulf. And I'm sure there were scientific reasons why the mets knew that didn't make sense because they fully expected the trend south; and voiced it. I think it was the blocking pattern if I'm not mistaken. I'm curious if there's a met/scientific thought as to how we can get good cold in the SE and not suppress anything. Overall I guess, not specifically for a certain storm but as the next couple week pattern presents itself. Is there something in the ensembles that is a telltale sign. Just a weenie trying to understand what to look for! The geography and latitude of our area makes it very, very difficult for us to have bitterly cold air without suppression. When the PV is close enough to provide the very cold air, you either get suppressed STJ shortwaves or you get clippers IF the jet comes far enough south. Clippers is how we get snow in the really, really cold air. But that's where the geography comes in. The mountains wring out a lot of the moisture associated with clippers. Clippers (northern stream shortwaves) can create a nice snow, but outside of the mountains, you're not going to get major snow from them. Also, they really need to take the perfect track, usually just to your south, and they need to be fairly strong. More northern latitudes, especially west of the mountains, can pick up more snow from clippers. And of course, the mountains can do really well. The variation of this that can perform better is if you get a northern stream system to dig fairly far west and south...then you have the potential for the system to pick up some moisture from the Gulf, at least. Anyway, we usually need southern stream interaction in order to get a big storm and lots of snow. Problem is, USUALLY when you are dealing with a STJ system, temps are not going to be cold enough so that you don't have to worry...at least a little bit. Reason is, the PV has to relax a little to allow the system to gain enough latitude to spread in the precip. But if you have a nice HP in a good spot, then you have a good tap into the colder air. If you have that cold air feed, you'll be sitting pretty when the moisture rolls in. We had that with the Christmas storm. Then there's phasing of the northern and southern streams. Of course, this comes down to timing. Phase too early, rain. Phase too late, limited moisture. The Christmas storm phased at a decent time. Models have a hard time tracking and timing shortwaves, especially when it comes to the phasing of them. The upcoming pattern is going to feature an ample of supply of cold air to the north. PV looks to be strong, but it varies from model to model. Look for it to relax and see if the models start to clue into a particular shortwave. They seem to be seeing one for the late weekend. Let's see if it holds. And let's see if we start to see consistency around a storm in this time frame as well as the evolution of high pressure to the northwest to feed in some cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 00z NAM could be getting interesting at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well I think I'm finally over the Christmas storm hangover and ready to track something. No matter what happens the rest of the winter I have to consider this winter a success. My expectations weren't very high coming into this winter and to have already had 7 inches w/ January, February, and March still to come, I couldn't be happier. Well considering we didn't get to double digits last winter and just finishing at our average when everyone north/south/east/west of us was killing it would really suck to finish this season at our average and not hit double digits. We haven't hit double digits in seven years (2004). So I will be extremely happy with a 3-4" event to put us over 10" for the year. It's probably been 50+ years since we have had 2 6"+ events on a season so that's probably not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The geography and latitude of our area makes it very, very difficult for us to have bitterly cold air without suppression. When the PV is close enough to provide the very cold air, you either get suppressed STJ shortwaves or you get clippers IF the jet comes far enough south. Clippers is how we get snow in the really, really cold air. But that's where the geography comes in. The mountains wring out a lot of the moisture associated with clippers. Clippers (northern stream shortwaves) can create a nice snow, but outside of the mountains, you're not going to get major snow from them. Also, they really need to take the perfect track, usually just to your south, and they need to be fairly strong. More northern latitudes, especially west of the mountains, can pick up more snow from clippers. And of course, the mountains can do really well. The variation of this that can perform better is if you get a northern stream system to dig fairly far west and south...then you have the potential for the system to pick up some moisture from the Gulf, at least. Anyway, we usually need southern stream interaction in order to get a big storm and lots of snow. Problem is, USUALLY when you are dealing with a STJ system, temps are not going to be cold enough so that you don't have to worry...at least a little bit. Reason is, the PV has to relax a little to allow the system to gain enough latitude to spread in the precip. But if you have a nice HP in a good spot, then you have a good tap into the colder air. If you have that cold air feed, you'll be sitting pretty when the moisture rolls in. We had that with the Christmas storm. Then there's phasing of the northern and southern streams. Of course, this comes down to timing. Phase too early, rain. Phase too late, limited moisture. The Christmas storm phased at a decent time. Models have a hard time tracking and timing shortwaves, especially when it comes to the phasing of them. The upcoming pattern is going to feature an ample of supply of cold air to the north. PV looks to be strong, but it varies from model to model. Look for it to relax and see if the models start to clue into a particular shortwave. They seem to be seeing one for the late weekend. Let's see if it holds. And let's see if we start to see consistency around a storm in this time frame as well as the evolution of high pressure to the northwest to feed in some cold. Good post! This is the technical terms behind the phrase I've heard from common (non weather hobbyists) folk...."It's too cold to snow." Common folk also will swear that heat lightning is real...but don't get me started on that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 00z NAM could be getting interesting at 84 I don't see any way for that moisture to get up here without pushing the 850 line into VA, especially if the low doesn't deepen significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The geography and latitude of our area makes it very, very difficult for us to have bitterly cold air without suppression. When the PV is close enough to provide the very cold air, you either get suppressed STJ shortwaves or you get clippers IF the jet comes far enough south. Clippers is how we get snow in the really, really cold air. But that's where the geography comes in. The mountains wring out a lot of the moisture associated with clippers. Clippers (northern stream shortwaves) can create a nice snow, but outside of the mountains, you're not going to get major snow from them. Also, they really need to take the perfect track, usually just to your south, and they need to be fairly strong. More northern latitudes, especially west of the mountains, can pick up more snow from clippers. And of course, the mountains can do really well. The variation of this that can perform better is if you get a northern stream system to dig fairly far west and south...then you have the potential for the system to pick up some moisture from the Gulf, at least. Anyway, we usually need southern stream interaction in order to get a big storm and lots of snow. Problem is, USUALLY when you are dealing with a STJ system, temps are not going to be cold enough so that you don't have to worry...at least a little bit. Reason is, the PV has to relax a little to allow the system to gain enough latitude to spread in the precip. But if you have a nice HP in a good spot, then you have a good tap into the colder air. If you have that cold air feed, you'll be sitting pretty when the moisture rolls in. We had that with the Christmas storm. Then there's phasing of the northern and southern streams. Of course, this comes down to timing. Phase too early, rain. Phase too late, limited moisture. The Christmas storm phased at a decent time. Models have a hard time tracking and timing shortwaves, especially when it comes to the phasing of them. The upcoming pattern is going to feature an ample of supply of cold air to the north. PV looks to be strong, but it varies from model to model. Look for it to relax and see if the models start to clue into a particular shortwave. They seem to be seeing one for the late weekend. Let's see if it holds. And let's see if we start to see consistency around a storm in this time frame as well as the evolution of high pressure to the northwest to feed in some cold. Excellent writeup, I dont think it could have been explained any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Good post! This is the technical terms behind the phrase I've heard from common (non weather hobbyists) folk...."It's too cold to snow." Common folk also will swear that heat lightning is real...but don't get me started on that one... Heat lightening! Haha! I have coworkers that talk about that. I don't know how many times that I've tried to tell them what it really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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