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January 2011


BullCityWx

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I think the model performed pretty well last year and I know it did a good job on the Christmas storm.

It seems like the JMA is always showing a great snowstorm. Therefore, when it actually does snow, the JMA does great, but when it rains, the JMA is awful. Kind of an all or nothing deal.

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Yeah, there was a noticeable difference between ATL and AGS....it was downright cold in Atlanta with that stiff breeze. Augusta felt like a spring day.

It was warm-ish while we were there on NYE. We stayed in Buckhead and I found it odd that I was able to grab a coffee at Starbucks that night around 8 and sit outside comfortably. That was surreal...not because of the weather but because there was not a soul around!! How many folks can say they've done that? LOL Me, coffee, tall buildings, quiet? Best part of the trip! :)

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Just a bit of cross polar flow ;)

MDQbt.gif

yes, I love the pattern coming up. It could go just cold and dry, which is what usually happens but this season has been full of storm systems that coincided with the cold because of a couple usually-missing ingredients, and those 2 ingredients are crucial, and are staying put , I think. So what I think will happen is the models will lose systems, bring them back later, and / or focus on the wrong shortwaves when actually a different one holds the key. I sure wouldn't look at the models and ensembles now and just assume pure cold and dry, because the overall pattern matches about 2 great patterns for the Southern US , one of which is my all time favorite to have studied, that Feb/Mar 1960 stretch. I'm not saying that will ever happen but I'm almost positive we're entering (probably already entered) a great weather period that we will look back on with fond memories one day. So don't live and die with each model over the next 2 weeks guys, the pattern supports good things.

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something like when you hear thunder there will be snow in 7 or 10 days not sure which one.

There is also the one about snow laying around for 5 or 7 days meaning more is on the way....yesterday I rode by a golf course, the temp was in the low 60's, the guys playing had on shorts and short sleeve shorts, there was snow still on the north side of hills and shady spots, and the pond was froze over, it was a very odd thing to see. I also thought if the golfers were smart they would aim for the ponds I bet they get a wicked bounce off the ice.........

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Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

??

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yes, I love the pattern coming up. It could go just cold and dry, which is what usually happens but this season has been full of storm systems that coincided with the cold because of a couple usually-missing ingredients, and those 2 ingredients are crucial, and are staying put , I think. So what I think will happen is the models will lose systems, bring them back later, and / or focus on the wrong shortwaves when actually a different one holds the key. I sure wouldn't look at the models and ensembles now and just assume pure cold and dry, because the overall pattern matches about 2 great patterns for the Southern US , one of which is my all time favorite to have studied, that Feb/Mar 1960 stretch. I'm not saying that will ever happen but I'm almost positive we're entering (probably already entered) a great weather period that we will look back on with fond memories one day. So don't live and die with each model over the next 2 weeks guys, the pattern supports good things.

As always, much thanks Robert! Would you mind posting a link or two for that great weather pattern of 1960? Remember me mentioning this a year or so ago? I mention this from time to time that my Mother-in-Law always brags about that great winter, when once a week, they would have snowfall here in the CLT area. She says that was her best winter ever. I put two and two together and this is the pattern she was talking about. Very interesting...

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Prolly gonna be a while until we see mid 60's again lol.......but thats cool with me Jan and Feb can be cold and snowy, as long as March is a lion and I get some chaseable storms.....

Cold front is through here, accompanied by a stiff NW wind at 15-20 mph with the passing and a temp drop from 66 to 58F in the last 30 minutes... :thumbsup:

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Cold front is through here, accompanied by a stiff NW wind at 15-20 mph with the passing and a temp drop from 66 to 58F in the last 30 minutes... :thumbsup:

Weve given January a 2 day spot. Probably sitting at +10 neighborhood departure from normal. Lets see how impressive this cold can get this month and if we can finish up in the minus column with regards to departure from normal. If we end up normal or slightly below the next 2 months and score another decent size storm, then this winter will go down as one of the greatest start to finish Ive ever had. I thought last year would be tough to duplicate with all the threats (chasess)every 3-5 days. But in the face of beleiving we where doomed this winter, I'm loving how things have turned out. I took the weekend off from model watching, went down to RWI, got some of the best bbarbecue on the planet. Now all I need is Duke to repeat and about 16 more inches of snow this winter and I'll be set! :weight_lift:

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I am sorry the 18z GFS now our storm is back I know I am a weenie at this but I just can't see a storm that strong getting supressed I really don't think it will be out to sea could a met or someone Chime in on there opinion?

Not a met....but took a look....not so sure about the weekend storm, but after that...WOW! looks like numerous potential systems....surely we won't be empty handed....just looks too good.:thumbsup:

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I am sorry the 18z GFS now our storm is back I know I am a weenie at this but I just can't see a storm that strong getting supressed I really don't think it will be out to sea could a met or someone Chime in on there opinion?

Its not the strength of the southern storm. Its what the gfs does with the vortex over NE and eastern Canada. It deepens it so much that it just crushes anything that comes out of the southwest. I'm sure its over done on the gfs.

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I am sorry the 18z GFS now our storm is back I know I am a weenie at this but I just can't see a storm that strong getting supressed I really don't think it will be out to sea could a met or someone Chime in on there opinion?

Umm...it still has that storm for next week sliding down into Cuba then the following Friday looks like maybe a strong clipper (which almost never works). It doesn't take much for the PV to get too strong and just suppress our storms into nowheresville no matter how strong they look, they will just get stronger as they head to Cuba instead of us. I also think that something has to pop in this sort of pattern but since we lived it last year it's hard to get overly excited.

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Its not the strength of the southern storm. Its what the gfs does with the vortex over NE and eastern Canada. It deepens it so much that it just crushes anything that comes out of the southwest. I'm sure its over done on the gfs.

Yep got in before me. I'm with Robert though I have a feeling the LR GFS and Euro aren't quite handling everything correctly (he has science I just have a weenie feeling).

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As always, much thanks Robert! Would you mind posting a link or two for that great weather pattern of 1960? Remember me mentioning this a year or so ago? I mention this from time to time that my Mother-in-Law always brags about that great winter, when once a week, they would have snowfall here in the CLT area. She says that was her best winter ever. I put two and two together and this is the pattern she was talking about. Very interesting...

This Christmas I asked my granddad what was the most snow he ever experienced here. He said in March 1960 they had 3 heavy snows on 3 consecutive Wednesdays, and it also snowed some of the days in between. He described it as if the roads were impassible throughout that whole time until around Easter. This was in Walhalla,SC. I sure hope we all get to experience something like that in our lifetimes.:snowman:

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This Christmas I asked my granddad what was the most snow he ever experienced here. He said in March 1960 they had 3 heavy snows on 3 consecutive Wednesdays, and it also snowed some of the days in between. He described it as if the roads were impassible throughout that whole time until around Easter. This was in Walhalla,SC. I sure hope we all get to experience something like that in our lifetimes.:snowman:

I also remember an old timer telling me about that. Here is a good read for everyone:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf

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Well how are we supposed to get storms out of this when the cold suppresses everything? Sorry if I'm not reading something right; just curious. There seems to be alot of excitement about the potential pattern for cold but how does this translate into snow potential? The two don't seem to mix.

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Well how are we supposed to get storms out of this when the cold suppresses everything? Sorry if I'm not reading something right; just curious. There seems to be alot of excitement about the potential pattern for cold but how does this translate into snow potential? The two don't seem to mix.

This far out with the gfs just look for patterns. Is there some precip anywhere near by? Is the amazing blocking we've seen still there? Super high pressure anywhere up north of us? Ridging out west? Trough bringing down the cold over us? If these things are on the maps out there in la la land then salt with patience, stir in some time and timing, let simmer. T

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