weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 My Lovely Lady gave me a vuew for christmas, I never expected it! I'm glad she did I love the info it gives me and am learning with it everyday. Yea those are nice; going to have to teach a couple "extra" classes to afford that but that is what I had in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like the insanely negative NAO goes positive around the 12th or so on the GFS. Hard to buy suppression looking at that. Usually in times of transition like that, a storm will be there. However, that vortex looks like it means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Boy if the GFS is correct this is holding true... Ok guys lets keep this in perspective; one, we know it is the GFS-need I say more; two, this is still several days away, to not expect variability in models runs is to be expected; third, this pattern is strange to say the least, it may take even the best models a while to lock on. We know we know a few things for sure, for example, it will turn cold, the last rund of the GFS was a warmer for my area, which is strange why the system would be further south; we know that there will be a systm in that time frame for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Thats hillarious Burger, keep em coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 My Lovely Lady gave me a vuew for christmas, I never expected it! I'm glad she did I love the info it gives me and am learning with it everyday. Congrats! That's what I have, if you have any questions about it, let me know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The AO is forecast to seriously go in the tank... Not sure if everyone saw this, but Don got a mention from Mount Holly pertaining to his research on the AO. His thread is pinned on the main forum and an excellent read, full of useful and relevant information on where we may be headed. The AO forecast is very impressive, last winter they adjusted the scale from 4 to 6, it will interesting to see if it can bottom out off the "new chart" so to speak. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 238 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2011 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL IT REMAINS AN ATYPICAL OR THROW BACK NINA WINTERS FROM THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY ACROSS OUR CWA. MR DON SUTHERLAND`S RESEARCH INDICATES THAT THROUGH TODAY THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS PRETTY CLOSELY TIED TO IT) WILL SET A BLOCKING (NEGATIVE) DECEMBER RECORD FOR ANY NINA WINTER SINCE 1950. WITH BLOCKING WEATHER PATTERNS TOWARD THE POLE, THE COLD AIR IS FORCED SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE THE TYPICAL LA NINA CLIMATOLOGY OF RECENT NINA WINTERS DEAD IN THE WATER. THIS DECEMBER FOR PHILADELPHIA WILL BE THE COLDEST DECEMBER SINCE 2000 AND THE COLDEST MODERATE OR STRONG LA NINA SINCE 1955. Looks like the insanely negative NAO goes positive around the 12th or so on the GFS. Hard to buy suppression looking at that. Usually in times of transition like that, a storm will be there. I have seen hints of the NAO trying to make a run at positive on the op global around the 12th for a couple of days. The ens mean however is not as bullish and trends close to neutral around this period, only to go back into the tank thereafter. Given the close relationship between the AO and NAO, at-least how I understand them, a run towards neutral, but never quite getting there, and going back into the tank around the middle of the month would make the most sense. The NAO has averaged - for all but a couple months over the last year, and with sig arctic blocking to continue, I see no reason why the greenland block will not continue and place Jan as a whole in another avg negative departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The gfs say suppression and the cmc says rain next weekend too warm. Lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I look forward to seeing what the Euro has to say this afternoon. I do not think I could bear a week a cold and with a everything south. Reminds me of the cold outbreak here last year. Cold and Dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I look forward to seeing what the Euro has to say this afternoon. I do not think I could bear a week a cold and with a everything south. Reminds me of the cold outbreak here last year. Cold and Dry. Yea, that would be a carbon-copy of last year; all the systems were shunted way south, we missed all the appreciable snow chances; that was really tough too see knowing how rare it is around here to get snow then to see it all go South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 My Lovely Lady gave me a vuew for christmas, I never expected it! I'm glad she did I love the info it gives me and am learning with it everyday. I'd be interested in knowing how you like it and ease of use. I've been considering one myself along with the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The mid-week system on the 12z euro is suppressed down into Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Not sure if everyone saw this, but Don got a mention from Mount Holly pertaining to his research on the AO. His thread is pinned on the main forum and an excellent read, full of useful and relevant information on where we may be headed. The AO forecast is very impressive, last winter they adjusted the scale from 4 to 6, it will interesting to see if it can bottom out off the "new chart" so to speak. Yes, I saw that. Pretty cool. I read that thread like three times per day. It's been interesting watching that crew tackle the pattern for January and the rest of the winter. In my opinion, it's some of the best mid- to long range forecast discussion on the net - and it's free. But make no mistake, the SE board is the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 12z euro has a storm next weekend going across the the gulf to off the NC/SC coast at 180 hours but it looks warm. Per the euro this would be a rain event for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yea, that would be a carbon-copy of last year; all the systems were shunted way south, we missed all the appreciable snow chances; that was really tough too see knowing how rare it is around here to get snow then to see it all go South Yes it was, it was not pretty but it sure was cold. Btw I have a big farm off Station Camp Creek in Cottontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 12z euro has a storm next weekend going across the the gulf to off the NC/SC coast at 180 hours but it looks warm. Per the euro this would be a rain event for all. @ 7 days out on the EC, I will take my chances on a favorable thermal profile and UL setup given what festering near Mobile Bay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 12z Euro is one cold looking model today. The pattern still looks to me to hold winter weather for someone in the SE. IMO I don't think the models have locked in on the upcoming weather pattern yet. At some point, one of those pieces of energy riding underneath that trough is going to produce a storm - one would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 @ 7 days out on the EC, I will take my chances on a favorable thermal profile and UL setup given what festering near Mobile Bay... Yea I agree...I was a little surprised at how warm the euro was at the surface after looking at the 500 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 FWIW the JMA has a system at hour 192 near New Orleans/Mobile Bay and is a good deal colder than the Euro, looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 FWIW the JMA has a system at hour 192 near New Orleans/Mobile Bay and is a good deal colder than the Euro, looks pretty good. I'll take it! Just out of curosity, is the JMA EVER right? Know that it has great noteriety for being wrong.....but something on it has to be of value, or wouldn't they get rid of it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take it! Just out of curosity, is the JMA EVER right? Know that it has great noteriety for being wrong.....but something on it has to be of value, or wouldn't they get rid of it?? I thought the JMA did decent with the Christmas storm? Not sure though. Currently 59° and very windy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take it! Just out of curosity, is the JMA EVER right? Know that it has great noteriety for being wrong.....but something on it has to be of value, or wouldn't they get rid of it?? I think the model performed pretty well last year and I know it did a good job on the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 6z DGEX remained suppressed with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think the model performed pretty well last year and I know it did a good job on the Christmas storm. Good to know then...I always heard that the JMA was horrible....never hear anything good about it..Anyone have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Good to know then...I always heard that the JMA was horrible....never hear anything good about it..Anyone have a link? The only one I have http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GSP's disco Starting with Wednesday...the day with the higher confidence as the models have high pressure over our area but breaks down as shortwave approaches from the west. Although the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have some variation from run to run...they seem to agree that if we have precipitation...the best time for that would be late Wednesday night. The GFS is most robust with a low developing as it moves from the northeast Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Although the Canadian is now a bit closer to the GFS on this solution...not willing to jump on board with anything higher than low slight probability of precipitation. All models do agree in principle to lowering heights at the end of the week with a deepening upper trough. Front passes late Thursday and northwest flow will continue into Friday. Again...timing differences on shortwave energy and brief slug of moisture. Late Thursday night into early Friday should see some northwest flow snow in ski resort areas of NC. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) both show a strong southern wave coming from Texas next weekend. The new European model (ecmwf) has wintry precipitation for our zones by 12z Sunday while the GFS has the closest precipitation over Alabama at that time. We can only hope some better agreement will come with the models as we get closer to that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 i am trying not to focus too much for something 7 days out (esp when something may be brewing on wed. night lol, albeit light) but have to say the track and general pattern is one that i am not going to complain about. after going so many years without any cads or gulf storms, its nice to at least have had some oft he gulf storms the last two winters. now if we could just get the cad/overrunning to come we would be sitting pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Good to know then...I always heard that the JMA was horrible....never hear anything good about it..Anyone have a link? Most of the folks who dismiss the Jap as a bad model are bias because it does not show a favorable event for their backyard... NCEP keeps track of JMA verification stats within 72hrs, and while it does not score as well as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF, it tends to do better in the short-term compared to the Canadian (GGEM). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ The North American models, GFS and NAM, were the first to catch on in the short term for the Christmas event if I am not mistaken, especially in terms of the boxing day blizzard that impacted coastal NE. Remember the ECMWF lost the event within the 96 hour window, only for the GFS to bring it back in the short term, and the JMA too. I read a couple posts from the NE crew on the main-side stating GFS and JMA vs the world on 72hr panels, while the EC was still out for a mid-day lunch. But looking at what verified from NJ - MA, both models, the JMA and GFS were very reliable within about 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Most of the folks who dismiss the Jap as a bad model are bias because it does not show a favorable event for their backyard... NCEP keeps track of JMA verification stats within 72hrs, and while it does not score as well as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF, it tends to do better in the short-term compared to the Canadian (GGEM). http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ The North American models, GFS and NAM, were the first to catch on in the short term for the Christmas event if I am not mistaken, especially in terms of the boxing day blizzard that impacted coastal NE. Remember the ECMWF lost the event within the 96 hour window, only for the GFS to bring it back in the short term, and the JMA too. I read a couple posts from the NE crew on the main-side stating GFS and JMA vs the world on 72hr panels, while the EC was still out for a mid-day lunch. But looking at what verified from NJ - MA, both models, the JMA and GFS were very reliable within about 72 hours. Thanks for the info....just what I was wondering....as was some others who probably did not speak up....everyone chimes in on the GFS/NAM in the short range...wish some would include JMA as well, since it is decent in the 72 hour window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 62 degrees! Windows are up!! Great day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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