Weather Czar Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take the Euro's temperature profile and the 0z GFS qpf. It's close for the northern TN Valley. As Foothills stated, if this gets stronger then there will be more southerly flow and rain. However, if this jogs south slightly then this could get more interesting... It Sure has my interest now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS also still looks good for the following weeks event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Great setup at 168. By 180, things are progressive, really this run is pretty progressive and the eastern Cold isn't so supressive. Already the Southwest system is coming out, thanks to that Canada West Coast kicker, so we could end up with another western Gulf low with just enough cold air around. We'll see how this run does after 180, keep in mind its lower resolution after 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS also still looks good for the following weeks event. BURGER, WE STILL LqqKING GOOD FOR NEXT WEEKEND ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Models are finally resolving this stj wave. Spitting out one mid-week and then the second piece several days later (day 8 or 9). The first event will be borderline, second looks to be easily cold enough. Maybe suppression city unless we can get this arctic lobe heading into northeast out of the way in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 BURGER, WE STILL LqqKING GOOD FOR NEXT WEEKEND ? Looks like a couple of shots in the next ten days!! Looks like I better reload on salt and ice melt Robert still waiting on lunch it's January now!! My treat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS also still looks good for the following weeks event. the entire pattern is very rare one, It has a potentially great look to it, very similar to the late Feb/March 1960 pattern for the nation as a whole. This is especially true in the Deep South, with extremely strong Arctic Highs (several of them ) pressing southward from western and Central Canada, which goes against the grain of "can it get cold here" from the high so far away, and the answer is yes...as it did multiple times in that historic pattern. If the GFS is right on the very displaced westerlies and the Alaska ridging and Baffin Island ridging at times, then with a very active southern stream, we'd be in business in a major way. Of course the GFS loses resolution at that time range, but if I recall the Euro was similar at that time. Hard to say how all this will play out, but its very interesting and the odds are someone in the South will be looking at a good snowstorm within 7 to 10 days. Maybe more than one. GFS: Mar 1960: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If the 0z GFS were to pan out, that would be about as cold a pattern as one could hope for in the SE from early December to mid-January. A one week thaw w/ almost six weeks of cold. Wow. edit: I would never have guessed(again, if this is how it works out) that this La Nina would have yielded this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am a weenie here but that looked like a train through the Gulf from Day 9 - Day 16 Looks like a couple of shots in the next ten days!! Looks like I better reload on salt and ice melt Robert still waiting on lunch it's January now!! My treat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That high coming into the CONUS on day 9/10 is awesome! Don't think I've ever seen a pattern like that. Definitely a throwback 60's look. -NAO/-PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That high coming into the CONUS on day 9/10 is awesome! The GFS (and the Euro to some degree) have one incredible historic pattern coming up in our near future. Its still at a range that can't be fully bought into yet, but its heading that way more and more each run. Cross Polar flow, strong Alaska block, and arctic highs of the extreme variety, but heres the good news, they don't come bodily down, they ridge down....which will allow the southern displaced westerlies to still work magic across the Southern states. Of all possible good patterns, Weak Nino, Split flow, Baffin Blocking, this GFS run portrays the one I'd pick out first. I'd take it in a second just to have the 5H look materialize, and not even question the surface stuff yet. The rest would fall into place, much like the big Christmas Storm the Euro developed (all because of the PATTERN--which had ample support, even though models lost the storm a while). The pattern will rule everything, and this is a stunningly good pattern showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The GFS (and the Euro to some degree) have one incredible historic pattern coming up in our near future. Its still at a range that can't be fully bought into yet, but its heading that way more and more each run. Cross Polar flow, strong Alaska block, and arctic highs of the extreme variety, but heres the good news, they don't come bodily down, they ridge down....which will allow the southern displaced westerlies to still work magic across the Southern states. Of all possible good patterns, Weak Nino, Split flow, Baffin Blocking, this GFS run portrays the one I'd pick out first. I'd take it in a second just to have the 5H look materialize, and not even question the surface stuff yet. The rest would fall into place, much like the big Christmas Storm the Euro developed (all because of the PATTERN--which had ample support, even though models lost the storm a while). The pattern will rule everything, and this is a stunningly good pattern showing up. We'll see. Definitely looks good after we get through the next few days of water conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Like Robert said someone further south needs to start the next storm thread ha we need to bring that heavy snow to the people who keep getting screwed. (no offense Cold Rain you brung an awesome snow to many except Me, Burger, and Robert lol) Jerms, Add my name to the "screwzone" list! Man...maybe Burger should take the triangle of snow death off of his sig. I sit right in the middle of that dang thang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Back to back runs of the CMC showing big time cold air next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Jerms, Add my name to the "screwzone" list! Man...maybe Burger should take the triangle of snow death off of his sig. I sit right in the middle of that dang thang... yea anywhere on the 74 corridor from Shelby to Charlotte continues to get screwed. Something about this area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I just saw this. Its 5h is looking very similar now to GGEM and ECMWF so there's probably going to be a quick hitting overrunning or maybe a prefrontal event late Wed. night overnight. The place to watch for heavy wet snow will be the mountains of Tenn and NC and maybe around the 40 corridor in NC overnight. Its quite a bit of qpf, but the trend may be for this to become stronger. If it does, then southerly flow will be even stronger and the system would most likely certainly be pure rain, but as it stands now its close to wet snow , atleast for some areas its close enough to watch. The high is in a bad spot, but so long as the warm advection isn't too strong, I've seen snow even here in Shelby with pretty strong southwest winds once, and got a nice fluffy 4" snow from it, with temps climbing through the event. Not saying this will be snow here for sure, as I'm sure it will be alittle too warm, but the Euro was just cold enough at 12Z. Its a delicate balance btwn just enough warm advection for precip, and not too much or else its rain. At 120 hours, the next player is sitting off the southenr Calif. coast, just itching to be the next Gulf low for us. I actually disagree that a stronger surface low means stronger WAA. It's really is all about the placement of the low. If the surface low stays far enough south it might actually help to enhance surface CAA if it trends stronger. This is because the flow on the eastern portion of the low would be northeasterly. Now the problem is there is another surface low located well NW of the southeastern United States. This feature remains strong on the GFS until 108 hours where the southern surface low starts totals over. If we could just have a stronger southern surface low... We can have enough self induced northeasterly winds to help keep temperatures at the surface and near 850mb at freezing... Producing heavy wet snowfall across areas portions of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 yea anywhere on the 74 corridor from Shelby to Charlotte continues to get screwed. Something about this area.... I would extend it east to Monroe and possibly even Wadesboro/Albemarle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The GFS (and the Euro to some degree) have one incredible historic pattern coming up in our near future. Its still at a range that can't be fully bought into yet, but its heading that way more and more each run. Cross Polar flow, strong Alaska block, and arctic highs of the extreme variety, but heres the good news, they don't come bodily down, they ridge down....which will allow the southern displaced westerlies to still work magic across the Southern states. Of all possible good patterns, Weak Nino, Split flow, Baffin Blocking, this GFS run portrays the one I'd pick out first. I'd take it in a second just to have the 5H look materialize, and not even question the surface stuff yet. The rest would fall into place, much like the big Christmas Storm the Euro developed (all because of the PATTERN--which had ample support, even though models lost the storm a while). The pattern will rule everything, and this is a stunningly good pattern showing up. excellent analysis. the good thing is that this year, what seemed like a borderline or iffy setup has turned out much better than expected, especially for NC. similar to what was said last year about DC, it just wants to snow in NC this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Could someone chime in on the Euro if possible when it finishes? Looks a little different than the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Could someone chime in on the Euro if possible when it finishes? Looks a little different than the 12z run? The euro once again shows several threats of winter precipitation for the Carolinas in the next 10 days. I'll attempt to break it down even though I don't have access to 6hr maps. At 96 hours, there is a 500mb reflection of our system the gfs has at 00z, but there is only a weak surface reflection. I'd feel a lot better if we had a better Gulf Low to track, but it appears this might be more of a case of jet forcing enhanced precipitation rather than robust baroclinic development. Thus, we are gonna have to rely on the strong jet forcing the precipitation. Temp wise, most of NC is under 0 degrees at 850mb, with temps between 0-2 degrees C for most of GA and SC. Thus, any precipitation will likely be a mix bag, trending towards rain south after an initial burst of snow/sleet in GA/SC but there could be a more prolonged period of snow in NC. Still too far away to know the details for sure, but I'm not optimistic that this will be a significant precipitation producer unless we see a significantly more amplified system. Based off what I see from the streamlines at 850mb, this system is rather weak on the euro, while quite a bit more robust on the GFS. Will be interesting to see which one wins out. The next threat shows up by 168 hours on the Euro, in the form of a pretty strong southern stream impulse that swings out of the west coast. By this point, we have already had a nice shot of arctic air across the southeast, with a stretched 500mb low from the Great Lakes to off the Coast of main, where a strong nor-easter is starting to decay. I think its a great setup for a southeastern winter storm, although the temperatures are a touch on the warm side. Its hard to tell what the Euro does between 168hrs to 192hrs, but I don't really buy its evolution. It dampens out the southern stream feature while heights actually rise at 500mb across the southeast as the southern stream system traverses the region. This results in pretty warm 850mb temperatures causing rain to fall for most of NC/SC except perhaps the mountains. Honestly, given the awesome setup at 168 hours, I'd expect a solution that involves a lot more phasing between the northern and southern stream, at least to the extent it cases height falls at 500mb across the southeast. I think either the euro is incorrect with its strong depiction of the southern stream shortwave at 168 hours, or that the amount of phasing that occurs between the northern and southern stream between 168 hours and 192 hours is just plain wrong. We got plenty of time to watch this, so I'll be interested to see which solution it trends to. The long range shows an extreme block forming over Alaska at 240 hours, with cross polar flow occurring... this will likely bring some bitterly cold weather to some part of the United States. However, if the block decides to retrograde to any degree in the future runs, a lot of the cold will be centered over the Western United States, and a warm up will likely begin in the east without a robust -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I absolutely cannot sleep tonight but did anyone notice the 00Z GGEM valid for next Tuesday the 11th at 12Z. Not too often you see a 1082mb high in northwestern Canada which is only a little over 1mb away from the established world record. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that. Did a quick lookup.) I'm sure it is overdone, but just goes to show you the kind of cold the models are picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 While the Euro didn't look as good as the 12z IMHO it did keep our storm for next week. 6z GFS also has a superstorm at 288. With every model run saying at some point a storm pops you gotta like our odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 While the Euro didn't look as good as the 12z IMHO it did keep our storm for next week. 6z GFS also has a superstorm at 288. With every model run saying at some point a storm pops you gotta like our odds. Yea, continues to look good for the Southeast during the 288 hour timeframe, good if you like snow that is; I know anything over 4" shuts Nashville down; there are only a hand full of storms that have produced over 10" in Nashville and it has been more than 20 years since we have seen that much snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I would love to share the last one man. That warm bubble killed you guys. I ended up with 5" total. But it was 5 tough " to come by. Great disco folks!! yea anywhere on the 74 corridor from Shelby to Charlotte continues to get screwed. Something about this area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yea, continues to look good for the Southeast during the 288 hour timeframe, good if you like snow that is; I know anything over 4" shuts Nashville down; there are only a hand full of storms that have produced over 10" in Nashville and it has been more than 20 years since we have seen that much snow on the ground welcome to the board weathertree. I live in Johnson City, but grew up in Gallatin. Even attended church in cottontown occasionally, which is where my late-mother grew up. Nashville (actually north of) has been a relative snow HOLE over the past 15 years. Will be interesting to see if your area can score with the upper air pattern projected to look so good in the near future. Have a great day. David Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 welcome to the board weathertree. I live in Johnson City, but grew up in Gallatin. Even attended church in cottontown occasionally, which is where my late-mother grew up. Nashville (actually north of) has been a relative snow HOLE over the past 15 years. Will be interesting to see if your area can score with the upper air pattern projected to look so good in the near future. Have a great day. David Yea, you are right about that; this is the first year that we have had more than 3"; I think the larger pattern started changing last year in that we did actually have some snow; for a while, the early part of the decade, would not be unusual to see an entire Winter Season pass without a flake; I can recall as a kid in the 1970's the deep Winter Snows; would be great to have enough snow to sled on for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I would love to share the last one man. That warm bubble killed you guys. I ended up with 5" total. But it was 5 tough " to come by. Great disco folks!! Yeah they got killed by the first little surface wave as like us they were stuck on the warm side of it. When the coastal finally came they were too far west for the best deformation snows which occurred from here eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 From BMX AFD this morning 1/2/11 DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MIDWEEK...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS DRY OUT BRIEFLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN WE`VE GOT ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF COAST SURFACE LOW STARING US IN THE FACE NEXT WEEKEND...AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED (POTENTIAL) CONSEQUENCES THAT SUGGESTS. Hint.....Hint.....Hint For those who don't know much about BMX....they are head and shoulders above FFC in forcasting winter events. I'm liking our chances more and more as we head into January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 From BMX AFD this morning 1/2/11 DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MIDWEEK...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS DRY OUT BRIEFLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN WE`VE GOT ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF COAST SURFACE LOW STARING US IN THE FACE NEXT WEEKEND...AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED (POTENTIAL) CONSEQUENCES THAT SUGGESTS. Hint.....Hint.....Hint For those who don't know much about BMX....they are head and shoulders above FFC in forcasting winter events. I'm liking our chances more and more as we head into January.... Can you post the link to that infor? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 From BMX AFD this morning 1/2/11 DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MIDWEEK...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS DRY OUT BRIEFLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN WE`VE GOT ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF COAST SURFACE LOW STARING US IN THE FACE NEXT WEEKEND...AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED (POTENTIAL) CONSEQUENCES THAT SUGGESTS. Hint.....Hint.....Hint For those who don't know much about BMX....they are head and shoulders above FFC in forcasting winter events. I'm liking our chances more and more as we head into January.... I was content with my 2" of snow and was expecting spring to start January 1st...I guess not! Looking at the models themselves I'm not impressed by the precip and temps, but I'll take the mets' word that this is a great pattern we're heading into. I'm still assuming we'll warm up by mid month or so, but I'm impressed with the tenacity of the cold even in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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