BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I figured we needed a new thread to talk about the upcoming pattern headed into the early part of January. It looks like the first few days might be around average with a potential cold snap mid month as the models look much the same as they did before our December cold snap. From what I can gather, all we need is a PNA ridge to pop to really send us into the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I'm really curious to see how January is going to turn out. My original expectation was for a warm January, now I think we might have a shot at some cold air and possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 This is from Dave's facebook page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Back in October when we were looking at all the La-Nina analog years and climo, we expected a slightly warmer than normal January. Now, I am not too sure about that. One thing I have noticed about this up-coming period, is the less negative PNA that's being modeled. That could be huge for the southeast. As was mentioned in earlier posts, if we can get a +PNA in conjunction with all this high lattitude blocking, we will be looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 This is from Dave's facebook page: I'll take it! Iam hopeful the blocking can resume again soon and re-establish the cold. We shall see though. As has been said this has been a fun year to track (Something I was not so pessimistic about following last year in which we missed out). I was expecting the double whammy and already I was proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 I'll take it! Iam hopeful the blocking can resume again soon and re-establish the cold. We shall see though. As has been said this has been a fun year to track (Something I was not so pessimistic about following last year in which we missed out). I was expecting the double whammy and already I was proven wrong. Heck, I'll take it too! It'll be interesting to see if the pattern reload is delayed a bit, it seems they always are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 That's very reminiscent of what occurred in Jan 1977. Rollover ridge that ended up just opening the arctic for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 This is from Dave's facebook page: It would be nice to see things play out like that. I kind of hate it DT's not going to be posting here anymore. I know some don't like his style but I really like the way he explains things. It's easy for someone like myself to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Why is he not posting here anymore? It would be nice to see things play out like that. I kind of hate it DT's not going to be posting here anymore. I know some don't like his style but I really like the way he explains things. It's easy for someone like myself to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Why is he not posting here anymore? There is a topic in OT about it... DT is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Why is he not posting here anymore? Same thing as usual. Someone made a post over in the OT that he didn't like and he said he had enough and was outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Heck, I'll take it too! It'll be interesting to see if the pattern reload is delayed a bit, it seems they always are. As would I. As long as it is not like what was going on back in November where the cold seemed to be delayed by a few weeks I can live with it. I'm beginning to think that around average temperatures would be a safe call for January as of now, but we could also end up being slightly below average if the block setup is favorable. All we can do now is monitor how our pattern develops and see from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 This is from Dave's facebook page: can you post the Link to Dave's FB page please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yep, I am eying the area around Jan 8 for potential fun and games somewhere across the region in general. There comes the southern impulse through the SW on Day 8-10 means. Lots of northern branch pieces flying around, so couldn't rule out some phasing potential somewhere in there. While both the Euro and GFS have the southern branch energy, they are obviously handling the vortex underneath the ridge differently. And, as we are all well aware, very, very subtle differences with upper level energy make tons of difference in terms of the actual weather outcome. Just throwing it out there that the period around Jan 8 is something to watch for the Southeast and/or mid-Atlantic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Puleese! I was in Pennsylvania that year and do not relish the thoughts of re-living that again. Water main project there found frost down 14 feet after going I forget how long with temps never getting above zero. It got to be so much fun that our septic line froze. No thanks!!! That's very reminiscent of what occurred in Jan 1977. Rollover ridge that ended up just opening the arctic for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 It will be interesting to see how January pans out. I made a post earlier this month about patterns and how they tend to repeat themselves once established. So with all the calls for a warm January due to La Nina I'm curious to see if/when the blocking sets back up and if it can overpower the pacific. My hunch is that we will warm up for a few days then around January 7th we will start to slide back down and stay cold for the rest of the month. The fact that the La Nina looks to be losing strength only helps our chances. I'm going to try and put together a more sustantial post this weekend as a nurse my new year's eve hangover justifying my theory the repeating patterns. There is a lot of weird weather going on all over the world and I think January and especially February is going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I agree that the torch idea for January is gone. It looks like a retrograding blocking on the Euro for the next 10 days, and if so, we'll have to watch anything coming out of the Southwest for overrunning. The op. ECMWF does already hint that will happen starting middle of next week, but timing and location will change.Usually Southwest lows eject southern stream energy that doesn't show up well in advance, and we'll have the retrograding ridging in Canada and atleast some cold air pushing south, with a diffuse baroclinic zone across the Gulf. In the old days, we'd get damming /ice/snow/cold rain from this setup eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 It will be interesting to see how January pans out. I made a post earlier this month about patterns and how they tend to repeat themselves once established. So with all the calls for a warm January due to La Nina I'm curious to see if/when the blocking sets back up and if it can overpower the pacific. My hunch is that we will warm up for a few days then around January 7th we will start to slide back down and stay cold for the rest of the month. The fact that the La Nina looks to be losing strength only helps our chances. I'm going to try and put together a more sustantial post this weekend as a nurse my new year's eve hangover justifying my theory the repeating patterns. There is a lot of weird weather going on all over the world and I think January and especially February is going to be fun to watch. The Euro seems a little similar to our Christmas event around 240. Certain Jan 8 - 12th has some potential. As Matt mentioned though the Euro and GFS are looking night day, Euro wants to pop a low out of Tx right now and drag it across the gulf, the 6z GFS also looks somewhat similar. As others have said in the LR this looks to be a Jan. to remember. Hopefully all of us in the CLT region can cash in on a storm and be on the high end of things. BTW Amos, you back in CLT? Amazing there is still snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The Canadian has a similarly setup too. I think its time for coldrain to start a thread for this potential storm. Gotta ride the hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The Canadian has a similarly setup too. I think its time for coldrain to start a thread for this potential storm. Gotta ride the hot hand. haha I think Jshetely should or Gaffneypeach, We need to bring the snowline south, so the Upstate and CLT region can get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 haha I think Jshetely should or Gaffneypeach, We need to bring the snowline south, so the Upstate and CLT region can get one. Lol.. Its your time to shine now Robert. We will let you start this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Good information. Thanks to all who give weenies like myself something to look forward to. Hopefully we can get everything in the right place this time for Charlotte; including the COLD. Not 32 or 31 cold, but 30 or below cold. Anything over that as shown in the Christmas storm, it just doesn't add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 After the performance of the long-range Euro last storm, I'm going to trust it for this period too. There's going to be changes with storms themselves but I'm sure it's nailing the eventual setup. Also @ Robert did you ever get that long e-mail I sent you a couple weeks ago? Not sure since I never got a response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The Canadian has a similarly setup too. I think its time for coldrain to start a thread for this potential storm. Gotta ride the hot hand. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 haha I think Jshetely should or Gaffneypeach, We need to bring the snowline south, so the Upstate and CLT region can get one. Amen to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Lol.. Its your time to shine now Robert. We will let you start this one. no way I'm doing one. Also @ Robert did you ever get that long e-mail I sent you a couple weeks ago? Not sure since I never got a response. Yes, sorry i thought I wrote you back. I've had something going on 2 weeks now. I'll be in touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 well i am still nervous over the 'warm jan' pattern, but its looking like the cold will return this morning we have a raging virga storm over head. temp is 34 and dewpoint is 26 but nothing is reaching the ground while i guess its sort of pulling at straws, there are still some patches of snow left this morning so we have 6 days with at least some snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 If the pattern 'locks and loads', and it's near my birthday, January 11, I'll start anything you want me to. Not gonna touch it until I see 'the whites of their eyes', though. (to quote GSP) LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 well i am still nervous over the 'warm jan' pattern, but its looking like the cold will return this morning we have a raging virga storm over head. temp is 34 and dewpoint is 26 but nothing is reaching the ground while i guess its sort of pulling at straws, there are still some patches of snow left this morning so we have 6 days with at least some snow on the ground Yeah, I had patches up until yesterday. Not bad at all for Dec. I think it more likely blocking will come back than a big warm up. I'm pretty sure the only reason yesterday felt warm to me, was I'm used to a lot colder now I'll be surprised if we see 70's in Jan. now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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