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January thaw may be on life support


earthlight

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As Tony noted, the models have been keeping too much cold air at the surface, they're not mixing the warmer air down enough. We'll see.

Not just the nam (time sensitive), according to the gfs (model not mos) PHL's high today with a +8C 850mb temp is suppose to be 35:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kphl&submit.x=8&submit.y=8

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Snow depth here has only gone down from 25" to about 20". Many places in the yard still holding onto 28-30" depths. My overnight lows have been very cold since the blizzard:

26th: 24.2

27th: 19.9

28th: 23.8

29th: 11.5

30th: 7.1

Temps today looked like they'd make a run for 50, but clouds ruined the party once again. High reached 47.1 briefly, before slipping back into the low-mid 40s. 39.2 now. Certainly doesn't look like we're going to see the grass any time soon. :thumbsup:

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Most places running 4-8 above this time yesterday. Some places are close to 50 (ACY is 49 I believe). The oddball is JFK with the wind off the water, which is actually 1 degree cooler. Water trumps snow ;)

For TTN, looks like they only hit 45-46 today due to cloud cover. Weekend temps seem to be lowered a bit from yesterday, now only 46, 47 respectively for TTN. The lack of 50+ temps so far this winter has been remarkable.

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Snow depth here has only gone down from 25" to about 20". Many places in the yard still holding onto 28-30" depths. My overnight lows have been very cold since the blizzard:

26th: 24.2

27th: 19.9

28th: 23.8

29th: 11.5

30th: 7.1

Temps today looked like they'd make a run for 50, but clouds ruined the party once again. High reached 47.1 briefly, before slipping back into the low-mid 40s. 39.2 now. Certainly doesn't look like we're going to see the grass any time soon. :thumbsup:

Single digits? Wow, its been like 20 degrees warmer than that here! And I still have about 18 inches snow cover.

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For TTN, looks like they only hit 45-46 today due to cloud cover. Weekend temps seem to be lowered a bit from yesterday, now only 46, 47 respectively for TTN. The lack of 50+ temps so far this winter has been remarkable.

If you are going by MOS, it often underdoes highs just ahead of a cold front. So 50 is still in the cards tomorrow, no doubt. MOS numbers are actually warmer for NYC.

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Snow depth here has only gone down from 25" to about 20". Many places in the yard still holding onto 28-30" depths. My overnight lows have been very cold since the blizzard:

26th: 24.2

27th: 19.9

28th: 23.8

29th: 11.5

30th: 7.1

Temps today looked like they'd make a run for 50, but clouds ruined the party once again. High reached 47.1 briefly, before slipping back into the low-mid 40s. 39.2 now. Certainly doesn't look like we're going to see the grass any time soon. :thumbsup:

Bring golf clubs for Iso's backyard.

Nevermind, Happy New Year !

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The 50+ club as of 11AM EST:

NEL

MJX

ACY

MIV

MPO

DOV

WWD

GED

ESN

W29

Mainly coastal plain sites so far.

Additions to the list as of Noon EST:

TTN

WRI

VAY

LOM

BLM

PTW

MMU

NYC

LGA

FWN

AVP

Additions to the list as of 1PM EST:

DYL

PNE

NXX

SMQ

PHL

CDW

12N

ILG

MQS

RDG

LNS

HPN

MGJ

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The 50+ club as of 11AM EST:

NEL

MJX

ACY

MIV

MPO

DOV

WWD

GED

ESN

W29

Mainly coastal plain sites so far.

Additions to the list as of Noon EST:

TTN

WRI

VAY

LOM

BLM

PTW

MMU

NYC

LGA

FWN

AVP

Additions to the list as of 1PM EST:

DYL

PNE

NXX

SMQ

PHL

CDW

12N

ILG

MQS

RDG

LNS

HPN

MGJ

Additions to the list as of 2PM EST:

ABE

EWR

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I wish you had this much enthusiasm for cold weather...

I do! I just keep it in the obs threads. I wouldn't care normally about a random day in the 50s in January... but my thoughts on most places seeing 50 degree readings were challenged, so now I'm vindicating myself ;)

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Yeah I think we can have snow cover for a while...not that much will melt this weekend and then we have a sustained period of below average temperatures.

At least my part of the county is already having significant melt. And for ngihttime temperature purposes old snow radiates a lot less well than new snow.
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Final highs today:

TTN 53

DYL 51

PNE 53

NXX 51

WRI 54

VAY 56

SMQ 50

LOM 52

NEL 56

UKT 48

PHL 54 (snow depth T)

MJX 57

BLM 57

PTW 54

MMU 52

ABE 50

EWR 51 (snow depth 7)

CDW 51

12N 51

TEB 49 (snow depth 2)

NYC 53

ACY 58 (snow depth 6)

ILG 56

LGA 52 (snow depth 3)

MQS 52

JFK 43 (snow depth 5)

RDG 52

MIV 54

MPO 55

FWN 53

LNS 50

HPN 50

FRG 46

DOV 56

AVP 53

WWD 57

MGJ 50

SWF 48

MUI 47

ISP 46 (snow depth 4)

GED 58

ESN 57

W29 54

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Ray, good call for today. I hit 56.6 here. MOS busted by a good 10 degrees!

Was out in a t-shirt shoveling a trail in the backyard for the dogs, couldn't believe how mild it felt. Snow depth took a decent hit but I'm still at about 16-17", so it looks like I'll definitely keep 12"+ by the time the cold air returns.

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Final highs today:

TTN 53

DYL 51

PNE 53

NXX 51

WRI 54

VAY 56

SMQ 50

LOM 52

NEL 56

UKT 48

PHL 54 (snow depth T)

MJX 57

BLM 57

PTW 54

MMU 52

ABE 50

EWR 51 (snow depth 7)

CDW 51

12N 51

TEB 49 (snow depth 2)

NYC 53

ACY 58 (snow depth 6)

ILG 56

LGA 52 (snow depth 3)

MQS 52

JFK 43 (snow depth 5)

RDG 52

MIV 54

MPO 55

FWN 53

LNS 50

HPN 50

FRG 46

DOV 56

AVP 53

WWD 57

MGJ 50

SWF 48

MUI 47

ISP 46 (snow depth 4)

GED 58

ESN 57

W29 54

Amazing difference Newark vs here snow depth when we had basically the same total. It's all about those nights; after the sun sets I'm below freezing within an hour or so. At EWR it takes much of the night to fall sub freezing.

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Ray, good call for today. I hit 56.6 here. MOS busted by a good 10 degrees!

Was out in a t-shirt shoveling a trail in the backyard for the dogs, couldn't believe how mild it felt. Snow depth took a decent hit but I'm still at about 16-17", so it looks like I'll definitely keep 12"+ by the time the cold air returns.

High was 51.5F here in Southern Westchester...currently 46/42, not going to get below freezing tonight unfortunately. Snow depth looks to be around 8" here, so we're going to end up with about 6" remaining after the cold front moves through tomorrow night. Definitely plenty of chances to replenish it in the next two weeks.

Once again, the NWS forecast is totally ridiculous. A high of 40F with rain showers on Tuesday? With 850s of -8C and a weak clipper generating cloud cover? Don't think so....

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High was 51.5F here in Southern Westchester...currently 46/42, not going to get below freezing tonight unfortunately. Snow depth looks to be around 8" here, so we're going to end up with about 6" remaining after the cold front moves through tomorrow night. Definitely plenty of chances to replenish it in the next two weeks.

Once again, the NWS forecast is totally ridiculous. A high of 40F with rain showers on Tuesday? With 850s of -8C and a weak clipper generating cloud cover? Don't think so....

is the clipper progged to pass north of you?

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is the clipper progged to pass north of you?

Yeah, I mean it's barely even a clipper...just a weak 1010mb low passing through the Great Lakes and leaving some snow showers in its wake. Thinking we're around 36/37F on Tuesday with cloud cover, snow cover, and a weak southerly flow.

NWS has 38F Wednesday, which is even more absurd...850s drop to around -13C after the clipper. We're probably looking at upper 20s at best for the day..

I have to wonder if there is some global warming bias to their forecasts because I've noticed the NWS consistently forecasts temperatures being close to normal even when we're in a cold spell like we had mid-December.

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Yeah, I mean it's barely even a clipper...just a weak 1010mb low passing through the Great Lakes and leaving some snow showers in its wake. Thinking we're around 36/37F on Tuesday with cloud cover, snow cover, and a weak southerly flow.

NWS has 38F Wednesday, which is even more absurd...850s drop to around -13C after the clipper. We're probably looking at upper 20s at best for the day..

I have to wonder if there is some global warming bias to their forecasts because I've noticed the NWS consistently forecasts temperatures being close to normal even when we're in a cold spell like we had mid-December.

yea i really haven't looked at that clipper at all, and didn't even know it was that weak. I was going to say if it was stronger and progged north of you i could see the southerly flow torching the bl.

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yea i really haven't looked at that clipper at all, and didn't even know it was that weak. I was going to say if it was stronger and progged north of you i could see the southerly flow torching the bl.

Yeah, I would be more concerned about hitting 40F if the clipper was stronger but it looks anemic at this point. 850s stay in the -7C range so we're not talking about a warm airmass, and we'll still have the snow cover and passing clouds to battle incoming solar radiation. I'm thinking this entire week is going to be much colder than forecast....going for high temps of 34, 37, 28, 30, 27 (Monday-Friday) here in Southern Westchester. Well below normal looks to continue following a brief "torch." Getting excited for a Miller B threat this weekend and then a potential arctic spell as the -EPO block builds in.

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