famartin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I wonder if today and tomorrow won't have as much of a jump up because of the lack of wind. The last couple of days we had the west to northwest winds from snow free areas downsloping or advecting into the Mount Holly CWA. Anyway the bigger problem the next couple of days is not the temperatures but the dew points, they get above freezing, It doesn't seem to be having much effect. Most places are running close to yesterday at this time... some places notably warmer...which is all the more remarkable given how much colder it started at this morning. I've never known snow to be particularly effective at keeping it significantly cooler around here... now Elko is a different story There just isn't enough terrain, the snow induced inversion breaks up too easily. I noticed that further north in the Hudson Valley, the terrain plus the snow seems to be having more of an impact. TTN -1 DYL -1 PNE +1 WRI -1 VAY 0 SMQ 0 LOM +3 NEL 0 UKT +2 PHL 0 MJX +3 BLM +2 PTW +3 ABE -1 EWR +2 CDW -1 12N -2 TEB 0 NYC 0 ACY +5 LGA +1 MQS +3 JFK -1 RDG +2 MIV +6 MPO +5 FWN -1 LNS 0 HPN +1 FRG +2 AVP -2 WWD +7 MGJ -6 APG -2 SWF -6 MUI 0 ISP +2 GED +1 ESN +4 W29 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 The GFS just refuses to break down the blocking. The pattern it is developing on it's ensemble mean height anomalies is really reminiscent of what we saw just a few weeks ago. So at this point, all we can really say is "the signal continues"... Also check out how impressive the ECMWF is with it's blocking signal as well. Exciting stuff. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 The more you look at it, the more you can see the ECMWF is actually quite impressive with higher heights on the West Coast and a very strong block development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 ECMWF has a pretty cold look to it with the core of the cold centered above the Great Lakes, split flow also, and a good looking ridge out west.... This is very much like last winter in terms of upper air, IF it goes like that, one can expect another significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 It's amazing how repetitive the huge blocking patterns can become throughout the winter. We saw that last year, and it appears that we will be seeing that again this year. That Euro 7-10 day mean has a lot of similarities to the pattern that just buried us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I think those of you who aren't expecting any 50s in the next few days are doing some wishful thinking... many locations hit 40 yesterday. Today will be as warm if not warmer... already most places are above freezing. Today will fall below forecast, likely due to high cloudiness. I'm only at 37.6 right now after a 7 degree low this morning. Yesterday was 38. The forecast has us near 50 the next couple days, but we'll see. I think the snow cover definitely has some effect, look at highs yesterday comparing NYC or PHL to DCA, BWI, RIC, and RDU. DCA was about 10 full degrees warmer than here yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 JB who was consistently saying that the warmth was coming to the east for jan and feb is beginning to back off from his call in today's column talking about stratospheric warming. Interesting to see if he admits bust, or just pretends we didn't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 It's amazing how repetitive the huge blocking patterns can become throughout the winter. We saw that last year, and it appears that we will be seeing that again this year. That Euro 7-10 day mean has a lot of similarities to the pattern that just buried us. The blocking has been consistent for the past 3-4 months too which makes it all that more impressive. I am hoping it holds the whole winter and once into the end of march breaks down and allows and nice warm spring around here, something we haven't had in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Today will fall below forecast, likely due to high cloudiness. I'm only at 37.6 right now after a 7 degree low this morning. Yesterday was 38. The forecast has us near 50 the next couple days, but we'll see. I think the snow cover definitely has some effect, look at highs yesterday comparing NYC or PHL to DCA, BWI, RIC, and RDU. DCA was about 10 full degrees warmer than here yesterday afternoon. Who is forecasting 50 for you tomorrow? Saturday is do-able, perhaps at night ahead of the front. Yeah, the snow cover has had some effect but MOS (particularly the NAM) has been awful the last couple of days as temps are beating MOS guidance, in the NAM's case by several degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Today will fall below forecast, likely due to high cloudiness. I'm only at 37.6 right now after a 7 degree low this morning. Yesterday was 38. The forecast has us near 50 the next couple days, but we'll see. I think the snow cover definitely has some effect, look at highs yesterday comparing NYC or PHL to DCA, BWI, RIC, and RDU. DCA was about 10 full degrees warmer than here yesterday afternoon. Most places are warmer than you, at or above yesterday and at or above 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Most places are warmer than you, at or above yesterday and at or above 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 It doesn't seem to be having much effect. Most places are running close to yesterday at this time... some places notably warmer...which is all the more remarkable given how much colder it started at this morning. I've never known snow to be particularly effective at keeping it significantly cooler around here... now Elko is a different story There just isn't enough terrain, the snow induced inversion breaks up too easily. I noticed that further north in the Hudson Valley, the terrain plus the snow seems to be having more of an impact. TTN -1 DYL -1 PNE +1 WRI -1 VAY 0 SMQ 0 LOM +3 NEL 0 UKT +2 PHL 0 MJX +3 BLM +2 PTW +3 ABE -1 EWR +2 CDW -1 12N -2 TEB 0 NYC 0 ACY +5 LGA +1 MQS +3 JFK -1 RDG +2 MIV +6 MPO +5 FWN -1 LNS 0 HPN +1 FRG +2 AVP -2 WWD +7 MGJ -6 APG -2 SWF -6 MUI 0 ISP +2 GED +1 ESN +4 W29 0 Well there was a 4C bump up in fcst 850mb temps for PHL from yda to today, temps are not >5F higher than yesterday area-wide at least gives the snow some credit today. GFS (and NAM assuming based on met mos) overdoing the snow influence with their fcst 10 meter temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Well there was a 4C bump up in fcst 850mb temps for PHL from yda to today, temps are not >5F higher than yesterday area-wide at least gives the snow some credit today. GFS (and NAM assuming based on met mos) overdoing the snow influence with their fcst 10 meter temps. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Looks like Englishtown and Belmar are closest to my temps. I briefly reached a high of 38.6, now down to 38.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Newark and NYC only 39 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Check out the NAM at 18z Saturday with H85 temps of 10+C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Check out the NAM at 18z Saturday with H85 temps of 10+C. that flow from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Check out the NAM at 18z Saturday with H85 temps of 10+C. I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 I'll take the over. Yeah, me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Newark and NYC only 39 it looks like. Park hit 40. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/CLINYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Climo site highs today and diff from yesterday: TTN - 44 +3 PHL - 43 +3 ABE - 41 +2 EWR - 39 -1 NYC - 40 +3 ACY - 47 +8 ILG - 43E +2 LGA - 41 +1 JFK - 39 +1 RDG - 45 +5 MPO - 37 +4 ISP - 40 +2 GED - 44 +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 one or two days with temperatures near 50 with a little rain won't be enough to melt all this snow...I think at least traces of it might be with us for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 My streak continues, high was 39 today, have not hit 40 since Dec 13! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 My streak continues, high was 39 today, have not hit 40 since Dec 13! EWR was 41 on the 21st, 40 on the 22nd, 42 on the 24th, and 40 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You can see how it the warmest air is not modeled to fully advocate down to the surface due to the snowpack and entrenched cold air.....pretty interesting to see, gas laws at work. It does look many areas will reach the mid to upper 40's but even this may not be enough to take down the 2' plus that lies in NE NJ and some of the boroughs. HPN Temperature profile off the NAM: NOtice the warmest temps hovering around the lower levels and not mixing down to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 As Tony noted, the models have been keeping too much cold air at the surface, they're not mixing the warmer air down enough. We'll see. You can see how it the warmest air is not modeled to fully advocate down to the surface due to the snowpack and entrenched cold air.....pretty interesting to see, gas laws at work. It does look many areas will reach the mid to upper 40's but even this may not be enough to take down the 2' plus that lies in NE NJ and some of the boroughs. HPN Temperature profile off the NAM: NOtice the warmest temps hovering around the lower levels and not mixing down to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Newark went from 24" snow depth to 16" snow depth in 48 hours (7AM Mon - 7AM Wed)... I'm still holding on to 20", but then again I started at 32 and they started at 24, so it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm probably down to about 8" from 23". The fields around town are barely covered, but they had less from the wind. Below many tree's it is down to bare ground as well. I think once this little thaw is over, I'll be down to piles and some snow where it drifted higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Urbanized areas are death to a snowpack...I'd think out in the woods and hills, in rural NJ, the snow will have considerably better staying power... Yeah, the combination of poor radiational cooling and lack of shade makes it hard to hold onto a snowpack for a long time in urban areas. Still got like 10" on the ground in Westchester, but I'm at 350' elevation in the woods, so that helps significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm still holding on to 20", but then again I started at 32 and they started at 24, so it makes sense. seems reasonable. i started at 20" and am at about 11" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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