January 2011 Thoughts: Area of Warmth Could Be Somewhat Limited

[pcbjr]

And I think the main factor they are struggling with is the high latitudes, specially the EPO. 12z Euro totally switch from a slightly -EPO in the 0z, to a very +EPO at day 10. So instead of having an Aleutian low we get a Bering PV, which totally shuts any cross polar flow. This solution is what was shown in the long range 2+ days ago (which probably was a factor for some to call a significant warmup for the last third of January) and it has came back. I'm wary of a breakdown of the high latitude ridging, specially considering we have a somewhat warm stratosphere, had a very strong wave 1 that peaked 2 days ago, a wave 2 that will probably peak tomorrow or so and another surge of wave number 1 in a couple of days... the stratospheric PV is getting pummeled, like it has been all season long. Always go with persistence unless there are significant signs that could change the base pattern. Currently I don't see any signs for a drastic high latitude pattern change (other than Niña/QBO, but those haven't changed much during winter, and in fact the MJO is probably going to change the atmospheric ENSO state for a little while). This doesn't ensure a -AO, but I'm convinced it will stay negative, though the NAO will go slightly positive on average.

On the other side of the continent, we see a significant + west NAO on the Euro, which would teleconnect very well with the SE ridge is showing there... The GFS ensembles have a less positive west NAO, but are way different than the Euro (and partly to it's ensembles), with troughing in the SE. My forecast here is going with the consensus, with near normal to slightly below heights near the East coast by day 10, but with a southward displaced PV which is currently modeled to be over Baffin island... the Hudson bay would probably be the place which I would put it. This displacement is due to my thinking that the AO will remain negative.

West coast ridging hasn't changed that much, though the changes with the high latitudes have modified the northward extension of it. This is where I'm more confident, with a +PNA ridge building trough day 10.

Very well thought out (IMHO). If you're correct and if I'm reading you correctly, you're not going for prolonged warmth?

[wxmx]

Very well thought out (IMHO). If you're correct and if I'm reading you correctly, you're not going for prolonged warmth?

You're right...probably a transient warm up before we get into another well below average regime east of the Rockies.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

it still looks cold for my region for next week (17th-23rd), so this is good. Not as cold n the south, but still cold in the north...which is how it should be.

[Amped]

Bust on the Stratosphere, Guess we have a feel for model accuracy there.

[donsutherland1]

Several rounds of verification and then some thoughts:

Verification:

First, the busts.

1. Seattle did not see a 3"-6" snowfall from the most recent storm. The accumulation was 2.8". Earlier, I had erroneously noted that only a trace of snow had fallen. Still the storm fell short of what I had expected and a forecasting error is a forecasting error.

2. The lowest temperature this month has been 25°F in Seattle. I had expected one or more days with minimum temperatures in the teens. The PNA filipped to positive before I had expected and that kept the worst of the cold north and east of Seattle. Moreover, it made prospects for a significant snowfall highly unlikely, as all of Seattle's big snowfalls (12" or more) had a trough in the Pacific Northwest, not ridging.

Second, the ideas concerning the January 11-13, 2011 Northeast blizzard:

Snowfall Estimates posted January 10, 2010:

Albany: 4"-8"; Actual: 13.4"; Error: 5.4"

Baltimore: 1"-3"; Actual: 2.0"; Within range

Boston: 12"-18"; Actual: 14.7"; Within range

Hartford: 8"-16"; Actual: 24.0"; Error: 8.0"

Harrisburg: 3"-6"; Actual: 3.9"; Within range

Islip: 12"-18"; Actual: 16.0"; Within range

New York City: 7"-14"; Actual: 9.1"; Within range

Newark: 6"-12"; Actual: 9.1"; Within range

Philadelphia: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.2"; Within range

Providence: 12"-18"; Actual: 12.2"; Within range

Worcester: 12"-18"; Actual: 21.1"; Error: 3.1"

Some Thoughts:

1. The area of warm anomalies is still likely to be smaller than usual for a moderate/strong La Niña in January.

2. An Arctic shot, possibly in two pieces, remains plausible for the Northern Plains and then Eastward, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The 240hour 1/13 0z ECMWF may have a better handle on the cold than its companion run of the GFS.

3. The AO will likely go positive in the next 5-10 days and remain there through the rest of January. As a result, the last 7-10 days, probably last 7 days will likely see moderation in the East with a milder regime taking hold.

4. The PNA will likely remain predominantly positive through the rest of the month leading to above normal readings in the Pacific Northwest.

5. Toward the end of the month, or more likely first week in February, the EPO could be heading negative. I believe that will likely set the stage for a renewal of a colder pattern following what might be about two weeks of milder readings. A true blowtorch still does not appear to be the most likely outcome during the two week or so period of milder temperatures. Cities that have experienced above normal snowfall in the East in January will likely see a continuation of above normal snowfall for February. By the end of February, I suspect that NYC will be at or above 40" seasonal snowfall and BOS will be at or above 50".

[wxmx]

Some Thoughts:

1. The area of warm anomalies is still likely to be smaller than usual for a moderate/strong La Niña in January.

2. An Arctic shot, possibly in two pieces, remains plausible for the Northern Plains and then Eastward, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The 240hour 1/13 0z ECMWF may have a better handle on the cold than its companion run of the GFS.

3. The AO will likely go positive in the next 5-10 days and remain there through the rest of January. As a result, the last 7-10 days, probably last 7 days will likely see moderation in the East with a milder regime taking hold.

4. The PNA will likely remain predominantly positive through the rest of the month leading to above normal readings in the Pacific Northwest.

5. Toward the end of the month, or more likely first week in February, the EPO could be heading negative. I believe that will likely set the stage for a renewal of a colder pattern following what might be about two weeks of milder readings. A true blowtorch still does not appear to be the most likely outcome during the two week or so period of milder temperatures. Cities that have experienced above normal snowfall in the East in January will likely see a continuation of above normal snowfall for February. By the end of February, I suspect that NYC will be at or above 40" seasonal snowfall and BOS will be at or above 50".

Agree with your points...with a bit of an exception of number 3... I think it won't be as cold, but still near average to slightly below (and wetter for the South and East coast) and an AO near neutral. The Euro and GGEM seem to have a better handle of the pattern, the GFS is still struggling, depicting a more convoluted setup... and it's January when the wave lenghts make teleconnections a bit more straight forward.

And for our Ottawa friend... I'm highly confident you'll see some <20C cold soon.

[cta]

Don,

I have been reading your posts and I really appreciate your insight, especially that you give info for my area (PNW-- which is largely ignored by others). Being such as strong Nina, so many were calling for a great winter out here. So far its been mediocre at best. What are your thoughts for the rest of winter?

Thanks!

Several rounds of verification and then some thoughts:

Verification:

First, the busts.

1. Seattle did not see a 3"-6" snowfall from the most recent storm. In fact, almost all of the snow that fell into Wednesday morning melted. The accumulation was just a trace.

2. The lowest temperature this month has been 25°F in Seattle. I had expected one or more days with minimum temperatures in the teens. The PNA filipped to positive before I had expected and that kept the worst of the cold north and east of Seattle. Moreover, it made prospects for a significant snowfall highly unlikely, as all of Seattle's big snowfalls (12" or more) had a trough in the Pacific Northwest, not ridging.

Second, the ideas concerning the January 11-13, 2011 Northeast blizzard:

Snowfall Estimates posted January 10, 2010:

Albany: 4"-8"; Actual: 13.4"; Error: 5.4"

Baltimore: 1"-3"; Actual: 2.0"; Within range

Boston: 12"-18"; Actual: 14.7"; Within range

Hartford: 8"-16"; Actual: 24.0"; Error: 8.0"

Harrisburg: 3"-6"; Actual: 3.9"; Within range

Islip: 12"-18"; Actual: 16.0"; Within range

New York City: 7"-14"; Actual: 9.1"; Within range

Newark: 6"-12"; Actual: 9.1"; Within range

Philadelphia: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.2"; Within range

Providence: 12"-18"; Actual: 12.2"; Within range

Worcester: 12"-18"; Actual: 21.1"; Error: 3.1"

Some Thoughts:

1. The area of warm anomalies is still likely to be smaller than usual for a moderate/strong La Niña in January.

2. An Arctic shot, possibly in two pieces, remains plausible for the Northern Plains and then Eastward, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The 240hour 1/13 0z ECMWF may have a better handle on the cold than its companion run of the GFS.

3. The AO will likely go positive in the next 5-10 days and remain there through the rest of January. As a result, the last 7-10 days, probably last 7 days will likely see moderation in the East with a milder regime taking hold.

4. The PNA will likely remain predominantly positive through the rest of the month leading to above normal readings in the Pacific Northwest.

5. Toward the end of the month, or more likely first week in February, the EPO could be heading negative. I believe that will likely set the stage for a renewal of a colder pattern following what might be about two weeks of milder readings. A true blowtorch still does not appear to be the most likely outcome during the two week or so period of milder temperatures. Cities that have experienced above normal snowfall in the East in January will likely see a continuation of above normal snowfall for February. By the end of February, I suspect that NYC will be at or above 40" seasonal snowfall and BOS will be at or above 50".

[NJwinter23]

Thanks for the insight Don and wxmx. Any severe cold getting into the Eastern U.S. definitely looks like it will be Pacific driven, as is usually the case, since the NAO is going positive right now. I'd assume the AO should go neutral to positive as well for a time later this month. An inevitable pattern break at the very least, though we will interestingly likely get the best cold shot we've seen during the only +NAO period we've seen so far this winter. I don't see any clear signs of the -NAO pattern reloading anytime soon in any of the long range ensemble guidance just yet. Maybe phase 8 mjo would argue for this as we get closer? Any comments?

[easternsnowman]

Agree with your points...with a bit of an exception of number 3... I think it won't be as cold, but still near average to slightly below (and wetter for the South and East coast) and an AO near neutral. The Euro and GGEM seem to have a better handle of the pattern, the GFS is still struggling, depicting a more convoluted setup... and it's January when the wave lenghts make teleconnections a bit more straight forward.

And for our Ottawa friend... I'm highly confident you'll see some <20C cold soon.

Good point, I agree.

[donsutherland1]

Agree with your points...with a bit of an exception of number 3... I think it won't be as cold, but still near average to slightly below (and wetter for the South and East coast) and an AO near neutral.

I'm not sure that we're in much disagreement with respect to let's say the Middle Atlantic, New England, and Ohio Valley areas. I suspect that they'll go to normal and perhaps somewhat above normal during the last week in January (not necessarily for the entire period). I am aware of the 12z GFS injecting extreme cold into those areas for the January 24-27 timeframe (2m temps as low as -31.8°C for Ottawa, -22.4°c for NYC, and -18.9°C for Washington, D.C.). My guess, leaning somewhat to the Euro is that the cold shot could come a little earlier than progged on the 12z GFS. I also think that the 12z GFS is somewhat overdone on the magnitude of cold.

My thinking is that the AO could be in the 0 to +1 range, at least forr a time during, the closing week of the month.

And for our Ottawa friend... I'm highly confident you'll see some <20C cold soon.

We both agree on that point. I think the idea of one or two days with single digit low temperatures (fahrenheit) in Philadelphia and New York City and at least one day where the temperature falls to or below -20°C in Ottawa (and possibly a maximum temperature of around -20°C) is still reasonable, even as the timing is a little later than I first thought.

[donsutherland1]

So far its been mediocre at best. What are your thoughts for the rest of winter?

Actually, on the point of the 3"-6" snowfall, a total of 2.8" fell. Erroneously, I mentioned that only a trace had fallen. Still, it fell short. Even as the first 12 days of January averaged 3.4° below normal in Seattle, most of that period was dry.

A lot will depend on when the trough returns to the Pacific Northwest. If the Pac NW can have the PNA average -1 or below in February to coincide with an EPO-, then there will be a prospect of some notable winter weather. Unfortunately, at this stage, I'm not yet sure how that will turn out. .

[wxmx]

I'm not sure that we're in much disagreement with respect to let's say the Middle Atlantic, New England, and Ohio Valley areas. I suspect that they'll go to normal and perhaps somewhat above normal during the last week in January (not necessarily for the entire period). I am aware of the 12z GFS injecting extreme cold into those areas for the January 24-27 timeframe (2m temps as low as -31.8°C for Ottawa, -22.4°c for NYC, and -18.9°C for Washington, D.C.). My guess, leaning somewhat to the Euro is that the cold shot could come a little earlier than progged on the 12z GFS. I also think that the 12z GFS is somewhat overdone on the magnitude of cold.

My thinking is that the AO could be in the 0 to +1 range, at least forr a time during, the closing week of the month.

We both agree on that point. I think the idea of one or two days with single digit low temperatures (fahrenheit) in Philadelphia and New York City and at least one day where the temperature falls to or below -20°C in Ottawa (and possibly a maximum temperature of around -20°C) is still reasonable, even as the timing is a little later than I first thought.

Yes, you are right, we are mostly in agreement, and I said a bit of exception because I would shift the AO and temps a bit to neutral/slightly negative and normal/slightly below normal in the regions your mention, respectively, on average. Putting out some numbers, I would say -1 to +0.5 for the AO on average and -1 to +0.5 in temps in the three regions you mention, on average last week of January. Before that, I agree that the GFS is too late with the cold air dump. My reasoning on the AO (and temps, which are a consequence of the AO shift) is the current status of the stratosphere, which has been constantly under attack, and now the attack has reached the mid/upper stratosphere by means of a high amplitude planetary wave. Not calling for an MMW, just some moderate strat warming. Not a sure thing, but I think there will be some propagation to the troposphere in around 2 weeks from now, which would be the last few days of January.

Current state of the stratosphere:

Wave 1 going for a second peak

[Lookout]

The south has once again managed to be cold so far this month. Here is the stats through the 11th but of course this doesn't count the last 2 days which have averaged 15 to 20 degrees below normal..and so will today and tomorrow.

Despite so many much above normal forecasts for the south, this has been one of the most consistently cold winters we have seen. December was either the coldest or second coldest month on record for many locations. January has not been any warmer either so far and of course there has been much above normal snowfall in a lot of areas, breaking some records in fact. And there is no sign of a major warm up on any of the models in the foreseeable future.

Not bad given all the forecasts for a warm to very warm/dry winter down here.

[donsutherland1]

The south has once again managed to be cold so far this month. Here is the stats through the 11th but of course this doesn't count the last 2 days which have averaged 15 to 20 degrees below normal..and so will today and tomorrow.

Despite so many much above normal forecasts for the south, this has been one of the most consistently cold winters we have seen. December was either the coldest or second coldest month on record for many locations. January has not been any warmer either so far and of course there has been much above normal snowfall in a lot of areas, breaking some records in fact. And there is no sign of a major warm up on any of the models in the foreseeable future.

The cold has been very notable down south. IMO, the cold anomalies to date are sufficiently large that even if February winds up warmer than normal, the Southeast (excepting Florida) will likely have an overall cold anomaly for Winter 2010-11.

[donsutherland1]

Yes, you are right, we are mostly in agreement, and I said a bit of exception because I would shift the AO and temps a bit to neutral/slightly negative and normal/slightly below normal in the regions your mention, respectively, on average. Putting out some numbers, I would say -1 to +0.5 for the AO on average and -1 to +0.5 in temps in the three regions you mention, on average last week of January. Before that, I agree that the GFS is too late with the cold air dump. My reasoning on the AO (and temps, which are a consequence of the AO shift) is the current status of the stratosphere, which has been constantly under attack, and now the attack has reached the mid/upper stratosphere by means of a high amplitude planetary wave. Not calling for an MMW, just some moderate strat warming. Not a sure thing, but I think there will be some propagation to the troposphere in around 2 weeks from now, which would be the last few days of January.

Very nice analysis, Jorge. I'm a little slower with the timing, but do expect new AO/NAO blocking to develop in February. If past cases during which there was extreme December blocking are relevant, February could see a period of substantial blocking. Right now, I'm not overly concerned with the GFS ensembles showing little or no blocking toward the end of January. I believe that situation is merely an intermission of sorts between strong blocking regimes. Of course, I could be wrong.

[easternsnowman]

Very nice analysis, Jorge. I'm a little slower with the timing, but do expect new AO/NAO blocking to develop in February. If past cases during which there was extreme December blocking are relevant, February could see a period of substantial blocking. Right now, I'm not overly concerned with the GFS ensembles showing little or no blocking toward the end of January. I believe that situation is merely an intermission of sorts between strong blocking regimes. Of course, I could be wrong.

I believe the blocking will come back and gfs is usually slow in picking this up and the long range gfs...well enough said about that one...lol

[pcbjr]

I believe the blocking will come back and gfs is usually slow in picking this up and the long range gfs...well enough said about that one...lol

I 100% concur with your feelings about the long range GFS; I'd like to ask (and not to question, but to learn) - why do you feel the blocking will come back (and when, and how strong)?

Thanks in advance!

[easternsnowman]

I 100% concur with your feelings about the long range GFS; I'd like to ask (and not to question, but to learn) - why do you feel the blocking will come back (and when, and how strong)?

Thanks in advance!

Based on what Don just said and also the fact we have had a - nao for sometime. I feel like many others that pattern is just relaxing but only to a normal or slightly above temperature range being in the heart of the winter it still will be cold and of course the - epo will help.

[Kevin Druff]

I 100% concur with your feelings about the long range GFS; I'd like to ask (and not to question, but to learn) - why do you feel the blocking will come back (and when, and how strong)?

Thanks in advance!

If it's not in this thread, it'll be in the AO thread in this same sub-forum. Don had several lengthy posts discussing how strong blocking in December typically has an "echo" again later in the winter with another period of strong blocking. Page through those two threads (if you have time, read them in their entirety, really interesting stuff) and you should find the post I'm talking about.

[PNW guy]

Actually, on the point of the 3"-6" snowfall, a total of 2.8" fell. Erroneously, I mentioned that only a trace had fallen. Still, it fell short. Even as the first 12 days of January averaged 3.4° below normal in Seattle, most of that period was dry.

A lot will depend on when the trough returns to the Pacific Northwest. If the Pac NW can have the PNA average -1 or below in February to coincide with an EPO-, then there will be a prospect of some notable winter weather. Unfortunately, at this stage, I'm not yet sure how that will turn out. .

The west coast has flipped to an El Nino pattern in my opinion. Big ridge on or over the coast. Pretty much the same as we had last year. Depending on the intensity of the ridge the PNW is either dry and warm or wet and warm. Last January we had both but the winter was pretty wet. Even if the EPO(or PNA which is the term I use) becomes negative it won't matter anyway. Seattles snow months are Nov-Dec- and Jan. By Feb the strong amount of sunshine negates any cold air here. I have lived in Seattle since January of 1961 and can only remember 1 big snowstorm with 10-12 inches falling of sloppy very wet snow which melted almost immediately. No crippling snowstorm has ever shut down the city in February except Feb 2, 1916 almost 100 years ago. We have warmed up the planet way too much for that to ever happen again. I am pretty sure January will be above to much above average temps with temps between 50-58 for the rest of the month. It was 55 above in Vancouver Washington this morning. With a strong west to southwest flow our goosed is cooked literally for snow the rest of this winter. What is very scary to me is that no longer can I trust any of the models long range at all and looking at them seems to be only good for about 24 hours out. We are really screwed out here also in another respect...there is barely ANY data west of us for the models . Yes, they did OK with a change to very warm and very WET conditions this time...but what if it had been the other way around? Would we have been prepared for 3 feet of snow over a week with a lead time of 24 hours?? No way and deaths could occur because of it. I don't trust anything anymore. La Nina or El Nino or anything else.

You are prepared back east and are lucky you have the whole North American continent to help the "models" with the correct information. I know...I know... don't trust the models literally but without them all we have is satellite pics and that doesn't give much lead time.

With the pattern flipping to El Nino for Seattle I am now rooting for an early spring and 60-65 before Jan 31st.

Enjoy the snow...our winter is over.

I

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The south has once again managed to be cold so far this month. Here is the stats through the 11th but of course this doesn't count the last 2 days which have averaged 15 to 20 degrees below normal..and so will today and tomorrow.

Despite so many much above normal forecasts for the south, this has been one of the most consistently cold winters we have seen. December was either the coldest or second coldest month on record for many locations. January has not been any warmer either so far and of course there has been much above normal snowfall in a lot of areas, breaking some records in fact. And there is no sign of a major warm up on any of the models in the foreseeable future.

Not bad given all the forecasts for a warm to very warm/dry winter down here.

Notice the torch in upstate NY and northern New England. Hopefully the pattern over the next couple of weeks will put a dent into those warm anomalies. I like the look of next week, particularly the snow on Tuesday/Wednesday followed by frigid air. Interestingly, Ottawa's mean temperature as of this morning is -6 celcius. We're slowly lowering that, and so long as we don't get a torch before the month is over, I feel there's a chance we could end the month with a mean temperature of -10C or lower.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm not sure that we're in much disagreement with respect to let's say the Middle Atlantic, New England, and Ohio Valley areas. I suspect that they'll go to normal and perhaps somewhat above normal during the last week in January (not necessarily for the entire period). I am aware of the 12z GFS injecting extreme cold into those areas for the January 24-27 timeframe (2m temps as low as -31.8°C for Ottawa, -22.4°c for NYC, and -18.9°C for Washington, D.C.). My guess, leaning somewhat to the Euro is that the cold shot could come a little earlier than progged on the 12z GFS. I also think that the 12z GFS is somewhat overdone on the magnitude of cold.

My thinking is that the AO could be in the 0 to +1 range, at least forr a time during, the closing week of the month.

We both agree on that point. I think the idea of one or two days with single digit low temperatures (fahrenheit) in Philadelphia and New York City and at least one day where the temperature falls to or below -20°C in Ottawa (and possibly a maximum temperature of around -20°C) is still reasonable, even as the timing is a little later than I first thought.

This is good to hear. The pattern looks good for the second half of the month.

[donsutherland1]

This is good to hear. The pattern looks good for the second half of the month.

The second half of the month looks to be brutally cold in the Ottawa area. Snowfall will probably be on the light side with perhaps a moderate snowfall mixed in. Increasingly, it does appear that the East (southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and the Mid-Atlantic/New England states) may be locked into a cold pattern through most of the second half of the month, aside from some brief shots of milder air.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The second half of the month looks to be brutally cold in the Ottawa area. Snowfall will probably be on the light side with perhaps a moderate snowfall mixed in. Increasingly, it does appear that the East (southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and the Mid-Atlantic/New England states) may be locked into a cold pattern through most of the second half of the month, aside from some brief shots of milder air.

This is good to hear. It would be great if we could get a low to track into the brutally cold air as it's always interesting when it snows while the temperature is at or below 0F. I gather snow ratios are quite high when that happens. I draw your attention to the January 30-31,1993 event. High -14C with 8" of snow!

Hopefully the first half of February is at least moderately cold as Winterlude is on then and the snow and ice sculpters alays put a lot of effort into their works of art.

[ApacheTrout]

Notice the torch in upstate NY and northern New England. Hopefully the pattern over the next couple of weeks will put a dent into those warm anomalies. I like the look of next week, particularly the snow on Tuesday/Wednesday followed by frigid air. Interestingly, Ottawa's mean temperature as of this morning is -6 celcius. We're slowly lowering that, and so long as we don't get a torch before the month is over, I feel there's a chance we could end the month with a mean temperature of -10C or lower.

In Vermont (as measured at BTV), the first two days really skewed the map, as the mean departures were +23F and +18.5F. After the 2nd, the mean departure is +2.3F, but this is entire due to the low temps being well above normal (+7.2F), while high temps were actually below normal (-2.3F). Cloud cover probably isn't all that different from year to year (the sky cover number has no normal value), but it's remarkable how much the clouds warm the surface, even with a snowpack. This past Monday, it was 8F at 8 pm with a clear sky, but 16F and cloudy at 6:30 the following morning.

Regardless, I'd love to see some truly cold air come in. Keeps the ticks down.

[wxmx]

Slightly positive NAO looks like will be short lived, models are building ridges near Greenland by day 9+. There are still flips and flops, specially the GFS, but overall they are trending colder with temporary intermissions of milder weather.

[nzucker]

Slightly positive NAO looks like will be short lived, models are building ridges near Greenland by day 9+. There are still flips and flops, specially the GFS, but overall they are trending colder with temporary intermissions of milder weather.

The +NAO pattern just can't hold anymore...it's like clockwork: anytime the block tries to break down, another pig ridge takes its place in a few days. With our solar minimum, the default state is now the -NAO just as it was during the Maunder. I think the proof is that even a cold stratospheric signal like a strong La Niña and +QBO can't stop the NAO from rebuilding constantly.

Double block on the Day 10 ECM with a 558dm closed ridge over Greenland and another high pressure over Alaska:

[pcbjr]

The +NAO pattern just can't hold anymore...it's like clockwork: anytime the block tries to break down, another pig ridge takes its place in a few days. With our solar minimum, the default state is now the -NAO just as it was during the Maunder. I think the proof is that even a cold stratospheric signal like a strong La Niña and +QBO can't stop the NAO from rebuilding constantly.

Double block on the Day 10 ECM with a 558dm closed ridge over Greenland and another high pressure over Alaska:

Just get that cold air down here again, and again, and again ....

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

Both GFS and ECM strat forecasts show nice warming in E Canada/W Greenland.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

In Vermont (as measured at BTV), the first two days really skewed the map, as the mean departures were +23F and +18.5F. After the 2nd, the mean departure is +2.3F, but this is entire due to the low temps being well above normal (+7.2F), while high temps were actually below normal (-2.3F). Cloud cover probably isn't all that different from year to year (the sky cover number has no normal value), but it's remarkable how much the clouds warm the surface, even with a snowpack. This past Monday, it was 8F at 8 pm with a clear sky, but 16F and cloudy at 6:30 the following morning.

Regardless, I'd love to see some truly cold air come in. Keeps the ticks down.

Excellent point. Many think I'm odd for wanting extreme cold, but we need it to make sure some of the pests get killed off. many don't realize that Canada and the northern tier of the US are among the healthiest places in the world to live because we get very cold winters. Tropical diseases that exist further south can't survive up here. This is why Quebec as a healthier French colony than Louisiana and the New England colonies were helathier than the Tidewater and Carolina colonies.

So...I'm hoping Don is right when he says that the second half of January will be brutally cold.