January 2011 Thoughts: Area of Warmth Could Be Somewhat Limited

[ayuud]

Excellent discussion on today's AFD from Buf

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TIME AVERAGED

500MB HEIGHT PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 OF THE FORECAST CENTERED ON 19-JAN

SHOW HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR

GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT. AT THE SAME TIME...NEGATIVE HEIGHT

ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM ALASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE

CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT

MJO EPISODE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE

MONTH. MEAN OLR ANOMALIES OVER THE PAST WEEK SHOW ENHANCED

CONVECTION CONCENTRATING OVER TROPICAL SOUTHEAST ASIA. GEFS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS AREA OF

ENHANCED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WITH WHEELER PHASE

SPACE PLOTS BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING A MODERATE TO STRONG

MJO SIGNAL ORBITING INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AFTER ABOUT 20-JAN.

IF THIS VERIFIES...THAT WOULD PUT US INTO PHASE 8 AND PHASE 1 OF THE

MJO CYCLE FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO OF JANUARY...WITH COMPOSITE

ANALOGS SHOWING A STRONG CORRELATION TOWARDS BELOW AVERAGE

TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP IN THE GREAT LAKES WHEN IN

THESE PHASES. THUS...IF THE MJO FORECAST VERIFIES WE MAY SEE A

PERIOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR

THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO OF JANUARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINUANCE

OF THE GREENLAND BLOCK. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THE MJO CYCLE ALSO

SUPPORTS A BRIEF BUT POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AS WE PASS THROUGH

PHASE 5 AND 6 IN A WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH THE

ECMWF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND

AMPLITUDE. STAY TUNED.-- End Changed Discussion --

[snowstormcanuck]

What the hell is a "donating secondary group"?

You earn your reputation deservingly.

[thenewbigmack]

Several additional thoughts following the 12z GFS:

1. The cold and snowfall potential for the Pacific Northwest remains likely. The possibility of several days with low temperatures in the teens and the type of system that could deliver 3"-6" snowfall (or more) remains. Should Seattle pick up 6" or more snow from a storm next week, that would the first 6" or greater snowfall since December 20-22, 2008 when 6.6" fell. The 12z GFS suggests the kind of long-duration snow event that could produce 10" or more snowfall for Seattle. Appreciable snows would extend northward to such cities as Bellingham.

2. A coastal storm could impact part of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast next week after having dumped possibly significant amounts of snow across parts of the South, including the Atlanta metro area. An out-to-sea track remains more likely then something on the coast or inland.

3. Another system increasingly likely will cut to the Great Lakes or St. Lawrence River Valley ahead of an advancing Arctic cold front. Afterward (January 16-21 timeframe) one or more single digit minimum temperatures will be likely in such cities as Philadelphia and New York. Downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie, some significant lake effect snows could occur.

4. The wintry pattern will likely relax in the closing 7-10 days of the month courtesy of weakening/displaced blocking and an EPO+. However, that does not mean that winter is over. Perhaps sometime during the first week in February, it is plausible that the EPO could be going negative and a new AO- blocking regime developing if some past winters are representative. That's something that is way out there and still quite speculative.

I like the quote I bolded above With models all over the board, you still think Bellingham is possibly in the jackpot zone here? No matter where this low goes, we still have the fraser outflow to keep us cold enough for snow conditions, where as areas south do not. People who live in seattle seem to think Seattle and north will be the jackpot, and of course people who live in Portland think that Portland-Seattle will be the jackpot. Funny how that works =P

[hiker]

Anyone know what the "gdam" (referenced in the height max and min below) stands for? Can't find it in my collection of met glossaries.

Thanks

Parts of stratosphere at 1mb forecast to be at 47C (no typo) in 5 days:

[donsutherland1]

Anyone know what the "gdam" (referenced in the height max and min below) stands for? Can't find it in my collection of met glossaries.

Thanks

g stands for "geopotential heights"

dam stands for decameters

Gdam is geopotential heights in decameters.

[donsutherland1]

I like the quote I bolded above With models all over the board, you still think Bellingham is possibly in the jackpot zone here? No matter where this low goes, we still have the fraser outflow to keep us cold enough for snow conditions, where as areas south do not. People who live in seattle seem to think Seattle and north will be the jackpot, and of course people who live in Portland think that Portland-Seattle will be the jackpot. Funny how that works =P

Although it is too soon to highlight the bullseye, I am sufficiently confident that north Washington will see appreciable snow (several inches or more). Certainly, the 18z run of the GFS did not change my thinking.

[A-L-E-X]

Although it is too soon to highlight the bullseye, I am sufficiently confident that north Washington will see appreciable snow (several inches or more). Certainly, the 18z run of the GFS did not change my thinking.

Don, as per Upton's discussio,n looks like the storm for next week could be a big hit for the tristate also.

[pcbjr]

Don't want to be pushy, so please understand that is not the intent.

Since Don is active right now (and anyone else) - I'd really appreciate a response to Post #180 (mine), as I'm truly trying to learn. (Just hope my Question doesn't get lost in the thread - that's all).

Thanks in advance!

[donsutherland1]

Don (or someone with equal knowledge) -

I'm wondering if the PNA goes positive - which it looks like it is forecast to do around mid-month, given what looks like a neutral or maybe still slightly negative NAO after mid-month, and the AO still in negative territory but looking like it is rising after mid-month, will the positive PNA "offset" the rise in the NAO so that, at least clinically speaking, warmth in the east would not be pronounced? (Trying to learn!).

Thanks!

There's no guarantee that the PNA+ would offset the impact of the NAO+. It really will depend on the magnitude of the ridges/troughs and their placement. I do believe a milder period lies ahead, probably for the last 7-10 days of January.

[donsutherland1]

Don, as per Upton's discussio,n looks like the storm for next week could be a big hit for the tristate also.

The potential is there. The GFS trended in the right direction, though it was a little late in blowing up the secondary storm if one is seeking a blockbuster. It also didn't bring much precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic, though I think it is underdoing things there.

[pcbjr]

There's no guarantee that the PNA+ would offset the impact of the NAO+. It really will depend on the magnitude of the ridges/troughs and their placement. I do believe a milder period lies ahead, probably for the last 7-10 days of January.

Thanks, Don! At least you said "milder" and not "warmer" - so with that and my flu, I'll have a cup of tea and sleep with hopes of at least some winter left. I do appreciate the insights you give, and I hope you don't mind me (or any of us) leaning on you for an education.

Best Regards!

[donsutherland1]

so with that and my flu, I'll have a cup of tea and sleep with hopes of at least some winter left.

I hope you get well soon. Also, I don't mind people's asking questions.

[nzucker]

Thanks, Don! At least you said "milder" and not "warmer" - so with that and my flu, I'll have a cup of tea and sleep with hopes of at least some winter left. I do appreciate the insights you give, and I hope you don't mind me (or any of us) leaning on you for an education.

Best Regards!

I think it depends on how much the coastal blows up Tuesday and Wednesday....this will determine how strong the NW flow is from the arctic air over Canada, and whether Florida sees freezing conditions again.

I do believe the models are signalling more of an overrunning/gradient pattern in the longer range that would leave Florida milder while the Northern Tier is pounded with very cold airmasses (<-20C at 850mb) as well as potential snowstorms. You can see this pattern shaping up on the 12z ECM:

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Hey Don, I'm very pleased with the snow we had today in Ottawa. i think we got more than Environment Canada had been forecasting! Is the upcoming week becoming any clearer to you? Environment Canada now seems to think we'll be getting more snow on Wednesday. Also, when is the arctic airmass supposed to move in, by your reckoning? The 16th?

[donsutherland1]

Hey Don, I'm very pleased with the snow we had today in Ottawa. i think we got more than Environment Canada had been forecasting! Is the upcoming week becoming any clearer to you? Environment Canada now seems to think we'll be getting more snow on Wednesday. Also, when is the arctic airmass supposed to move in, by your reckoning? The 16th?

Around the 16th. I believe some additional snow is possible Wednesday. Things are looking better for Ottawa.

[donsutherland1]

Early afternoon thoughts...

1) The models have come into much better agreement on the upcoming East Coast event. One still wonders whether the NAM from western outlier to most extreme solution is still evolving more closely toward the Euro. Right now, my early thinking is that DCA/BWI have a good chance of seeing 2" or more snow and a possibility of 4" or more; Philadelphia will likely see 4" or more and has a reasonable chance of seeing 6" or more. NYC has a good chance of seeing 6" or more and could pick up 8" or more. Boston will likely pick up 8" or more. Northern NJ into southern New England has a chance to receive a foot of snow. I'll have my first estimated accumulations this evening. Before then, Memphis (2"-4") and Atlanta (3"-6") should pick up appreciable snows.

2) Seattle still appears to be in line for a moderate or significant snowfall later this week.

3) The last 7-10 days of the month will likely witness milder conditons in the East. But the the pattern does not appear to be evolving toward a full-fledged blowtorch.

4) The moderation during the last 7-10 days of the month probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again.. In any case my guess is that the cold anomalies accumulated over December and January will likely assure that Winter 2010-11 would wind up colder than normal in a large part of the East.

[Amped]

PV over canada, NAO is positive and it is hard to build heighss over Greernland with such a strong PV over Canada. Looking a lot more Nina ish.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Early afternoon thoughts...

1) The models have come into much better agreement on the upcoming East Coast event. One still wonders whether the NAM from western outlier to most extreme solution is still evolving more closely toward the Euro. Right now, my early thinking is that DCA/BWI have a good chance of seeing 2" or more snow and a possibility of 4" or more; Philadelphia will likely see 4" or more and has a reasonable chance of seeing 6" or more. NYC has a good chance of seeing 6" or more and could pick up 8" or more. Boston will likely pick up 8" or more. Northern NJ into southern New England has a chance to receive a foot of snow. I'll have my first estimated accumulations this evening. Before then, Memphis (2"-4") and Atlanta (3"-6") should pick up appreciable snows.

2) Seattle still appears to be in line for a moderate or significant snowfall later this week.

3) The last 7-10 days of the month will likely witness milder conditons in the East. But the the pattern does not appear to be evolving toward a full-fledged blowtorch.

4) The moderation during the last 7-10 days of the month probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again.. In any case my guess is that the cold anomalies accumulated over December and January will likely assure that Winter 2010-11 would wind up colder than normal in a large part of the East.

Don, it would appear that the Wednesday storm will stay to the south of Ottawa. Do you agree with this, or could we get a couple of inches out of it up here?

[pcbjr]

Ouch ...

[thenewbigmack]

Early afternoon thoughts...

1) The models have come into much better agreement on the upcoming East Coast event. One still wonders whether the NAM from western outlier to most extreme solution is still evolving more closely toward the Euro. Right now, my early thinking is that DCA/BWI have a good chance of seeing 2" or more snow and a possibility of 4" or more; Philadelphia will likely see 4" or more and has a reasonable chance of seeing 6" or more. NYC has a good chance of seeing 6" or more and could pick up 8" or more. Boston will likely pick up 8" or more. Northern NJ into southern New England has a chance to receive a foot of snow. I'll have my first estimated accumulations this evening. Before then, Memphis (2"-4") and Atlanta (3"-6") should pick up appreciable snows.

2) Seattle still appears to be in line for a moderate or significant snowfall later this week.

3) The last 7-10 days of the month will likely witness milder conditons in the East. But the the pattern does not appear to be evolving toward a full-fledged blowtorch.

4) The moderation during the last 7-10 days of the month probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again.. In any case my guess is that the cold anomalies accumulated over December and January will likely assure that Winter 2010-11 would wind up colder than normal in a large part of the East.

Don, it appears most models are falling in a disappointing agreement with bringing in the initial low pressure too far to the north (into vancouver island). If thats the case, seattle may start as snow, but very quickly transition. I would start as snow in ferndale as well, and transition a little more slowly with the help of the fraser valley outflow. What are your thoughts however on the track of that low? I thought normally the low's take the path of least resistance, and with such a strong arctic airmass to our north, seems as though the low should instead come in further south than currently advertised. I'm obviously just hoping here... but also wondering your thoughts on why that low is taking that course. thanks

[donsutherland1]

Don, it appears most models are falling in a disappointing agreement with bringing in the initial low pressure too far to the north (into vancouver island). If thats the case, seattle may start as snow, but very quickly transition. I would start as snow in ferndale as well, and transition a little more slowly with the help of the fraser valley outflow. What are your thoughts however on the track of that low? I thought normally the low's take the path of least resistance, and with such a strong arctic airmass to our north, seems as though the low should instead come in further south than currently advertised. I'm obviously just hoping here... but also wondering your thoughts on why that low is taking that course. thanks

Right now, I still believe a 3"-6" locally higher amounts snowfall is likely for Seattle. This probably will not be a blockbuster 1 foot or greater snowfall. Such snowfalls require a much deeper trough in the Pacific Northwest. The current trough is weaker and displaced to the north.

Composite 500 mb Height Anomalies for Blockbuster Seattle Snowfalls (12" or more):

Forecast 500 mb Height Anomalies for the Coming Event:

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Ouch ...

well, here's hoping this doesn't verify

[okie333]

Ouch ...

I usually don't pay any attention to the weekend CPC outlooks because they are fully automated.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Take a look at this from February 11,1967. Now this is what I call a cold front! Wow!!

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/hourlydata_e.html?timeframe=1&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=1967&Month=2&Day=11

[donsutherland1]

Some evening thoughts:

1) Right now, given the good run-to-run continuity of the ECMWF and the storm's somewhat overperforming down south, I favor a compromise between the 0z NAM and GFS. That means 6" or greater snows from Philadelphia north and eastward. New York, Boston, Worcester, and Hartford are among the cities that will likely see 6"-12" (and possibly more). This coming event will be a major reason I believe NYC and BOS will likely pick up 10" or more snow this month. Unfortunately, at this time, cities such as Ottawa and Montreal likely won't receive a significant impact (probably less than 2 centimeters).

2) The 3"-6" snowfall idea still looks good for Seattle for Tuesday into Wednesday.

3) Moderation still lurks in the longer-range. But the 0z GFS hints that the AO could be descending toward the end of the month.

[Snow Wizard]

Some evening thoughts:

1) Right now, given the good run-to-run continuity of the ECMWF and the storm's somewhat overperforming down south, I favor a compromise between the 0z NAM and GFS. That means 6" or greater snows from Philadelphia north and eastward. New York, Boston, Worcester, and Hartford are among the cities that will likely see 6"-12" (and possibly more). This coming event will be a major reason I believe NYC and BOS will likely pick up 10" or more snow this month. Unfortunately, at this time, cities such as Ottawa and Montreal likely won't receive a significant impact (probably less than 2 centimeters).

2) The 3"-6" snowfall idea still looks good for Seattle for Tuesday into Wednesday.

3) Moderation still lurks in the longer-range. But the 0z GFS hints that the AO could be descending toward the end of the month.

Do you think we will ever see a SE ridge this winter? The lack of that feature is killing the winter in the West. What looked to be a great event in the NW has turned into a total joke. It's almost like this region cannot win no matter what. I know that past low solar cycles gave this region great winters, but now it's like the Atlantic is stealing everything from us.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Some evening thoughts:

1) Right now, given the good run-to-run continuity of the ECMWF and the storm's somewhat overperforming down south, I favor a compromise between the 0z NAM and GFS. That means 6" or greater snows from Philadelphia north and eastward. New York, Boston, Worcester, and Hartford are among the cities that will likely see 6"-12" (and possibly more). This coming event will be a major reason I believe NYC and BOS will likely pick up 10" or more snow this month. Unfortunately, at this time, cities such as Ottawa and Montreal likely won't receive a significant impact (probably less than 2 centimeters).

2) The 3"-6" snowfall idea still looks good for Seattle for Tuesday into Wednesday.

3) Moderation still lurks in the longer-range. But the 0z GFS hints that the AO could be descending toward the end of the month.

Oh well, as long as the cold shot still comes around the 16th-18th. I want the mean temperature for the month to be pulled down. Still looking for that coveted 0F day. Who knows, maybe we'll get a cold front like the one on February 11th, 1967?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Do you think we will ever see a SE ridge this winter? The lack of that feature is killing the winter in the West. What looked to be a great event in the NW has turned into a total joke. It's almost like this region cannot win no matter what. I know that past low solar cycles gave this region great winters, but now it's like the Atlantic is stealing everything from us.

I feel your pain. With the exception of this past Saturday, Ottawa has been in the screw zone this winter thus far.

[donsutherland1]

As per the 6z guidance, I have no changes in my thoughts. I haven't looked as closely at the GFS vs. what's been going on in the South to see whether the GFS is missing some details as it was at 0z. Of course, it should be noted that missed details for that aspect of the forecast do not necessarily mean that it has the track/energy transfer of what will become a Miller B event wrong. It just means that there may be some room for error. Right now, I still like the idea of 6"-12" in NYC and Boston. Larger amounts are possible.

As for the Ottawa and the Pacific Northwest, I certainly empathize with the lack of sustained winter weather in those areas. I still believe a -20°C or colder day is likely in Ottawa. 3"-6" of snow is still likely in Seattle.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

As per the 6z guidance, I have no changes in my thoughts. I haven't looked as closely at the GFS vs. what's been going on in the South to see whether the GFS is missing some details as it was at 0z. Of course, it should be noted that missed details for that aspect of the forecast do not necessarily mean that it has the track/energy transfer of what will become a Miller B event wrong. It just means that there may be some room for error. Right now, I still like the idea of 6"-12" in NYC and Boston. Larger amounts are possible.

As for the Ottawa and the Pacific Northwest, I certainly empathize with the lack of sustained winter weather in those areas. I still believe a -20°C or colder day is likely in Ottawa. 3"-6" of snow is still likely in Seattle.

That's good to hear Don. I have noticed that, during the second half of the last decade, January mean temperatures warmed considerably, with the notable exception of January 2009. Take a look at the list:

January 2001: -9.4C

January 2002: -4.9C

January 2003: -13.5C

January 2004: -15.7C

January 2005: -11.7C

Now take a look at the second half of the decade:

January 2006: -5.7C

January 2007: -7.7C

January 2008: -6.3C

January 2009: -13.6C

January 2010: -7.5C

Quite the significant rise in mean temperature, a pattern which seems to be continuing into the new decade, despite the two cold winters in the US south and mid atlantic. The northern latitudes seem to be warming considerably in January, the coldest month of the year.

For interest's sake, I decided to look at the 1990s decade, supposedly remembered for its warm winters.

January 1990: -4.6C

January 1991: -10.6C

January 1992: -11.6C

January 1993: -9.2C

January 1994: -18.0C (!)

January 1995: -7.0C

January 1996: -11.7C

January 1997: -11.8C

January 1998: -7.9C

January 1999: -10.2C

January 2000: -10.2C

It would appear that Januaries in the 1990s were significantly colder than the late 2000s in Ottawa. Finally, let's look at the 1980s:

January 1980: -9.2C

January 1981: -14.5C

January 1982: -15.9C

January 1983: -8.6C

January 1984: -12.7C

January 1985: -13.5C

January 1986: -9.8C

January 1987: -9.1C

January 1988: -9.1C

January 1989: -7.9C

The 1980s were significantly colder in January than the late 2000s. In the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, it was noteworthy if Ottawa had a January with a mean temperature warmer than -9.0C. Now it seems to be the other way around.

The trend seems to be continuing this Jnauary, with bitter cold air seemingly unable to make it into this region.