January 2011 Thoughts: Area of Warmth Could Be Somewhat Limited

[ORH_wxman]

I suspect that the block will relax for a time, even if it persists at least into the last week of the month (or perhaps longer). Hence, the cold should not be a 2 or 3-day affair. The spell of below normal readings could last for a week or longer in Ottawa.

Finally, the AO was negative for 102 consecutive days from December 25, 1959 through April 4, 1960.

Don, I agree the block will probably relax at times...but I find it amazing that it seems to be the "base state". When it relaxes, it just wants to go right back to a big block. It used to be torture to try and get a big block up there but now it seems the opposite....every neutral or +NAO period is extremely transient then the big -NAO just settles right back in.

We'll see if that theme continues through the end of January and into February, but the Euro weeklies (which have done a great job so far) say it will.

[A-L-E-X]

Don, I agree the block will probably relax at times...but I find it amazing that it seems to be the "base state". When it relaxes, it just wants to go right back to a big block. It used to be torture to try and get a big block up there but now it seems the opposite....every neutral or +NAO period is extremely transient then the big -NAO just settles right back in.

We'll see if that theme continues through the end of January and into February, but the Euro weeklies (which have done a great job so far) say it will.

It seems to be that AO -1 base state is actually coming to fruition, I wonder how long it lasts? I've heard this also leads to scorching summers, so if this is sustainable for a number of years, we may be seeing some extreme temps in the winter and the summer.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Several GFS runs in the past 2 days have brought a mother lode of snow to Seatle. This looks very promising right now. There may be a lot of happy people on this forum over the next two weeks!

Some are even comparing this to the great blizzard of 1950. Wow, lets hope the trends continue.

[A-L-E-X]

Some are even comparing this to the great blizzard of 1950. Wow, lets hope the trends continue.

Wasnt that one of the winter analogs? I remember someone bringing it up.

[donsutherland1]

Don, I agree the block will probably relax at times...but I find it amazing that it seems to be the "base state". When it relaxes, it just wants to go right back to a big block. It used to be torture to try and get a big block up there but now it seems the opposite....every neutral or +NAO period is extremely transient then the big -NAO just settles right back in.

We'll see if that theme continues through the end of January and into February, but the Euro weeklies (which have done a great job so far) say it will.

I agree with you, Will. I did notice that the 0z and 6z GFS ensembles are again aggressive in temporarily eroding the blocking. I'll be looking forward to the later guidance and to see if the Euro weeklies will continue to do well.

[Ji]

sounds like the person who can figure out what the NAO is going to be no matter if the winter is LA NINA or NINO probably has the best chance of verifying the seasonal forecast

[JamieOber]

Several GFS runs in the past 2 days have brought a mother lode of snow to Seatle. This looks very promising right now. There may be a lot of happy people on this forum over the next two weeks!

That would be cool.....I am all about everyone being happy.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Don, what are your thoughts with regard to Ottawa for the storm around the 13th? The GFS seems to hint that we may at least get a glancing blow from it. Is it after this storm, that the arctic outbreak is forecast to occur. We'll see if we can at least get one 0F (or -18 to -20C) day out of this winter. Even January 1960 saw one day with a high of -22C in Ottawa.

[wxmx]

I think blocking will continue, and is going to be supported by the constant wave disturbing the vortex...plus some stratospheric warming. Also, things appear golden for some late January/early February for some nice wintry weather...and I would venture to call another KU event for the E coast (say from Jan 26th-Feb 4th)...other than La Niña, these graphics are just...wow

MJO:

Inducing dateline -OLR (tropical forcing changes)

Wave 1 just went nuts...I'm not even sure it isn't a glitch

And a deep strat warming...again, I'm not even sure if there's something wrong with the graph.

This wave is what is creating the big EPO ridge, and may there might be a positive feedback with the stratosphere.

[donsutherland1]

Don, what are your thoughts with regard to Ottawa for the storm around the 13th? The GFS seems to hint that we may at least get a glancing blow from it. Is it after this storm, that the arctic outbreak is forecast to occur. We'll see if we can at least get one 0F (or -18 to -20C) day out of this winter. Even January 1960 saw one day with a high of -22C in Ottawa.

Ottawa Blizzard,

That certainly is within the realm of possibility, but the differences in solutions remain vast. The La Niña is created a difficult forecasting environment and run-to-run continuity is not great right now. IMO, the coming strong shot of cold is probably a higher confidence idea than whether Ottawa can pick up a moderate snowfall ahead of the arrival of the Arctic air.

[okie333]

Wave 1 just went nuts...I'm not even sure it isn't a glitch

And a deep strat warming...again, I'm not even sure if there's something wrong with the graph.

This wave is what is creating the big EPO ridge, and may there might be a positive feedback with the stratosphere.

No glitch. I mentioned this several days ago on another thread. Expect a giant warming event at 1mb in a week or so.

[wxmx]

No glitch. I mentioned this several days ago on another thread. Expect a giant warming event at 1mb in a week or so.

Yep, no glitch. Warming at almost all levels...it's just incredible the tournaround from cooling in those figures you quoted.

[Srain]

Right on cue...

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK

230 PM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

RECORD 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA BY

MONDAY. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...A 580+ CENTER SHOULD BE CENTERED

JUST NORTHEAST OF KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH THE PERIMETER OF THE CLOSED

HIGH ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOMINANCE OF THE

HIGH WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST OF THREE STRONG SURFACE LOWS TRACKING NORTH OVER THE

CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE 970 MB OVER THE ALEUTIANS...JUST WEST OF

THE DATELINE... FRIDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR

TRACK NORTH TO SIBERIA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THIRD

LOW WILL BE WEAKER AND WILL SIMILARLY MOVE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT

THROUGH SUNDAY. A FOURTH LOW LOOKS UNLIKELY.

[pcbjr]

And the result is ?????

Yep, no glitch. Warming at almost all levels...it's just incredible the tournaround from cooling in those figures you quoted.

[wxmx]

And the result is ?????

Increases the chance of high latitude blockiness for late Jan/Feb...but many other factors are at play.

[pcbjr]

Increases the chance of high latitude blockiness for late Jan/Feb...but many other factors are at play.

"high latitude blockiness for late Jan/Feb" - Which means (other factors not in play)?

[wxmx]

"high latitude blockiness for late Jan/Feb" - Which means (other factors not in play)?

Read the title and subtitle of this thread.

[Amped]

What will the stratosphere do for us exactly.

There's already a 582DM in the Arctic circle in the heart of winter. Not getting any warmer than that without the polar Ice caps ,melting.

[Buffalo Bumble]

What will the stratosphere do for us exactly.

There's already a 582DM in the Arctic circle in the heart of winter. Not getting any warmer than that without the polar Ice caps ,melting.

Fairbanks is running an incredible +26 for January - it's only the first 6 days of the month, but it looks like similar positive departures will continue through next week. I think that meets our criteria for major torch...

STATION: FAIRBANKS AK

MONTH: JANUARY

YEAR: 2011

LATITUDE: 64 49 N

LONGITUDE: 147 52 W

TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND

================================================================================

1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

12Z AVG MX 2MIN

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR

================================================================================

1 35 -5 15 24 50 0 T T 13 4.7 12 50 M M 7 13 50

2 41 12 27 36 38 0 0.00 0.0 13 3.7 15 90 M M 6 26 100

3 25 7 16 25 49 0 0.00 0.0 13 2.7 10 30 M M 7 1 10 30

4 30 13 22 32 43 0 T T 12 1.4 9 190 M M 8 12 200

5 23 -6 9 19 56 0 0.00 0.0 12 0.6 10 40 M M 5 12 10 40

6 18 5 12 22 53 0 0.07 0.8 12 3.3 16 260 M M 10 1 24 260

================================================================================

SM 172 26 289 0 0.07 0.8 16.4 M 43

[thenewbigmack]

Don, whats your thoughts on the lows coming in land the 12th-15th for the west coast? The gfs seems to keep things a little further south, while many other models are trending north. Where do you feel the jackpot spot will be? FWIW... if you think its going to trend a little north and put the jackpot up in northern washington, I'll be very happy! =P

[donsutherland1]

Don, whats your thoughts on the lows coming in land the 12th-15th for the west coast? The gfs seems to keep things a little further south, while many other models are trending north. Where do you feel the jackpot spot will be? FWIW... if you think its going to trend a little north and put the jackpot up in northern washington, I'll be very happy! =P

It's still a little soon to tell. Right now, my early thinking is that cities such as SEA and PAE see less than one inch Saturday night/Sunday. Then Wednesday-Thursday a storm of the type that could bring 2"-4"/3"-6" with perhaps some locally higher amounts of around 8" is possible.

[donsutherland1]

Some quick pattern thoughts this morning:

The GFS ensembles have now been showing for several days how the blocking could weaken substantially or come to an end. Rather than retrograding across Canada, the block will tend to push southeastward toward the Canadian Maritime region. As it does so, the trough in the East will give way to ridging from the north. At the same time, the EPO will be positive. Hence, the closing 7-10 days of January could wind up normal to somewhat above normal in the East. Out west, the PNA will likely be positive from mid-month +/- a day or so. Hence, the western third of the U.S. along with British Columbia could experience milder weather. That could last through the rest of the month.

Beyond that, La Niña climatology would suggest that the West could cool while the East stays warm. However, 2010-11 has not been the typical La Niña winter. Moreover, data that looks back at some earlier La Niña conditions suggests that the idea that a warm February in the East is not assured. Significant snowfall in the East for the month of January (monthly totals of 10" or more in major East Coast cities, especially from PHL to BOS) would provide another hint for a colder February in at least parts of the East ala 1916-1917. Experience with extreme blocking in December would also suggest that once the current blocking regime ends (as shown on some of the ensemble guidance for later this month), a new strong blocking regime could develop. If so, the milder end to January could be a temporary period of warmth in a generally colder than normal winter.

[ayuud]

Some quick pattern thoughts this morning:

The GFS ensembles have now been showing for several days how the blocking could weaken substantially or come to an end. Rather than retrograding across Canada, the block will tend to push southeastward toward the Canadian Maritime region. As it does so, the trough in the East will give way to ridging from the north. At the same time, the EPO will be positive. Hence, the closing 7-10 days of January could wind up normal to somewhat above normal in the East. Out west, the PNA will likely be positive from mid-month +/- a day or so. Hence, the western third of the U.S. along with British Columbia could experience milder weather. That could last through the rest of the month.

Beyond that, La Niña climatology would suggest that the West could cool while the East stays warm. However, 2010-11 has not been the typical La Niña winter. Moreover, data that looks back at some earlier La Niña conditions suggests that the idea that a warm February in the East is not assured. Significant snowfall in the East for the month of January (monthly totals of 10" or more in major East Coast cities, especially from PHL to BOS) would provide another hint for a colder February in at least parts of the East ala 1916-1917. Experience with extreme blocking in December would also suggest that once the current blocking regime ends (as shown on some of the ensemble guidance for later this month), a new strong blocking regime could develop. If so, the milder end to January could be a temporary period of warmth in a generally colder than normal winter.

What is your thoughts on this storm?http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_192l.gif

[thenewbigmack]

It's still a little soon to tell. Right now, my early thinking is that cities such as SEA and PAE see less than one inch Saturday night/Sunday. Then Wednesday-Thursday a storm of the type that could bring 2"-4"/3"-6" with perhaps some locally higher amounts of around 8" is possible.

Yeah I agree it's definitely tough to tell. Models still don't know whether or not that block will hold steady and the northern jet will win out, or if the southern jet is just simply too strong. If the southern jet is too strong, seems only the far northern areas which are prone to fraser valley outflow may see snow, while areas down by seattle are too warm. However, if the norther jet in fact wins out, the majority of the moisture seems to be further south like you mentioned. I'm up in ferndale, wa, so I'm obviously rooting for a good chunk of moisture up my way... but the models just can't get a solid idea on this complex pattern

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Some quick pattern thoughts this morning:

The GFS ensembles have now been showing for several days how the blocking could weaken substantially or come to an end. Rather than retrograding across Canada, the block will tend to push southeastward toward the Canadian Maritime region. As it does so, the trough in the East will give way to ridging from the north. At the same time, the EPO will be positive. Hence, the closing 7-10 days of January could wind up normal to somewhat above normal in the East. Out west, the PNA will likely be positive from mid-month +/- a day or so. Hence, the western third of the U.S. along with British Columbia could experience milder weather. That could last through the rest of the month.

Beyond that, La Niña climatology would suggest that the West could cool while the East stays warm. However, 2010-11 has not been the typical La Niña winter. Moreover, data that looks back at some earlier La Niña conditions suggests that the idea that a warm February in the East is not assured. Significant snowfall in the East for the month of January (monthly totals of 10" or more in major East Coast cities, especially from PHL to BOS) would provide another hint for a colder February in at least parts of the East ala 1916-1917. Experience with extreme blocking in December would also suggest that once the current blocking regime ends (as shown on some of the ensemble guidance for later this month), a new strong blocking regime could develop. If so, the milder end to January could be a temporary period of warmth in a generally colder than normal winter.

Hi Don, thanks for elucidating the very thing I've been noticing in the GFS, and have been somewhat concerned about. Because it is getting into week 2 or so, the evolution could just as easily "change" again. But I've also seen that the GFS has really relaxed the flow in some of its cycle runs in the longer range, and at times recently it's waffled back and forth as to whether the Arctic outbreak around or after next weekend will get more shunted to the east (rather than plowing down the entire depth of the country). It's still cold behind whatever front goes through next weekend, but according to some recent GFS runs it's not nearly as intense (in the east at least) and the flow seems to lift out more quickly after that. I think the ensembles have looked overall more "wintry" (for lack of a better phrasing) in the longe range than the operational, but not sure if that means anything. Your explanation that the block now might push southeastward instead of retrograding through Canada makes sense and would supply a reason to what I've noticed in the GFS lately. We'll see how things transpire, and what this leads into toward late January and February. Hopefully, we won't hear the usual "winter cancel!" jumping-off-the-cliff comments if it does get (temporarily) warmer toward the end of this month. Well, regardless...so far this La Nina winter has seemed a lot more interesting than 2008-09, which was pretty chilly but rather dull until the early March snow event!

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

GFS/ECM strat charts bringing the PV right into Canada.

Not looking so hot with the zonal wind/temp forecast charts, but we'll see how the current warming plays out and if that'll be beneficial to us in the next two or so weeks.

[okie333]

Parts of stratosphere at 1mb forecast to be at 47C (no typo) in 5 days:

[donsutherland1]

Several additional thoughts following the 12z GFS:

1. The cold and snowfall potential for the Pacific Northwest remains likely. The possibility of several days with low temperatures in the teens and the type of system that could deliver 3"-6" snowfall (or more) remains. Should Seattle pick up 6" or more snow from a storm next week, that would the first 6" or greater snowfall since December 20-22, 2008 when 6.6" fell. The 12z GFS suggests the kind of long-duration snow event that could produce 10" or more snowfall for Seattle. Appreciable snows would extend northward to such cities as Bellingham.

2. A coastal storm could impact part of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast next week after having dumped possibly significant amounts of snow across parts of the South, including the Atlanta metro area. An out-to-sea track remains more likely then something on the coast or inland.

3. Another system increasingly likely will cut to the Great Lakes or St. Lawrence River Valley ahead of an advancing Arctic cold front. Afterward (January 16-21 timeframe) one or more single digit minimum temperatures will be likely in such cities as Philadelphia and New York. Downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie, some significant lake effect snows could occur.

4. The wintry pattern will likely relax in the closing 7-10 days of the month courtesy of weakening/displaced blocking and an EPO+. However, that does not mean that winter is over. Perhaps sometime during the first week in February, it is plausible that the EPO could be going negative and a new AO- blocking regime developing if some past winters are representative. That's something that is way out there and still quite speculative.

[Analog96]

What is your thoughts on this storm?http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_192l.gif

What the hell is a "donating secondary group"?

[pcbjr]

Don (or someone with equal knowledge) -

I'm wondering if the PNA goes positive - which it looks like it is forecast to do around mid-month, given what looks like a neutral or maybe still slightly negative NAO after mid-month, and the AO still in negative territory but looking like it is rising after mid-month, will the positive PNA "offset" the rise in the NAO so that, at least clinically speaking, warmth in the east would not be pronounced? (Trying to learn!).

Thanks!