Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Don, what's your take on the storm for this upcoming week? Also, do you think Ottawa has a chance of dipping to -30C one morning this weekend? The cold looks pretty intense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Don, what's your take on the storm for this upcoming week? Also, do you think Ottawa has a chance of dipping to -30C one morning this weekend? The cold looks pretty intense! On the latter issue, I think Ottawa will probably miss by a small amount. Still, there is some prospect that it could reach -30°C. On the former issue, there remains a lot of uncertainty. Some snow should overspread the Ottawa area. How much remains a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Brief AO update: Today's ensemble guidance shows only one member bringing the AO to a peak of +3 to +4 (1 member less than yesterday). One member brings it barely above +2 at the peak. The remainder point to a peak in the +1 to +2 range. There is a strong consenus that the AO will be falling around February 1 +/- a day or so. At this time, I have little reason to deviate from my expectation that the AO will become negative sometime during the first week in February or shortly afterward en route to what would become another strong AO blocking regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z GFS also showing some extremely cold temps for the first week of February, Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z GFS also showing some extremely cold temps for the first week of February, Don. yeh its crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z GFS also showing some extremely cold temps for the first week of February, Don. -AO...especially the -EPO portion is showing again in the mid/long range, with the west coast of NA ridging staying put....that's a hell of a cold setup if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 -AO...especially the -EPO portion is showing again in the mid/long range, with the west coast of NA ridging staying put....that's a hell of a cold setup if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On the latter issue, I think Ottawa will probably miss by a small amount. Still, there is some prospect that it could reach -30°C. On the former issue, there remains a lot of uncertainty. Some snow should overspread the Ottawa area. How much remains a question. Don it does look like I will get my -20C day on Sunday. We'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeh its crazy you never know, it could erase the above normal anomolies in eastern Ontario and Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 With Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston likely to have their coldest readings so far this winter tomorrow morning, with single digit lows likely in the former two cities and a subzero low possible in Boston, it should be noted that those three cities will likely experience there most severe cold in at least two years. Coldest Readings to Date in Select Cities: Boston: 12°, 1/23/2011 New York City: 13°, 1/22/2011 Ottawa: -25.1°C (-13.2°F), 1/17/2011 Philadelphia: 12°, 1/14/2011 Washington, DC: 17°, 1/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 As of 8 a.m., the lowest temperatures in select cities were: Boston: -2°: First subzero low since January 22, 2005 (also -2°) New York City: 6°: Lowest since January 17, 2009 (6°) Philadelphia: 9°: Lowest since January 17, 2009 (6°) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ottawa recorded a low of -30C, but i'm not sure of the precise number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 ottawa recorded a low of -30C, but i'm not sure of the precise number. I saw that at 7 am. But because it might actually be somewhat warmer than -30°C, I didn't mention it. We'll see what the precise number is tomorrow when EC posts the data. I suspect Ottawa will have another shot at it down the road (probably during the first week in February?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Don, Any updated thoughts on the AO and NAO after Feb 1st? The Ensemble Mean Outlooks seem to rising after that, but the GFS seems to have them falling (per the CPC website). Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Your discussion is greatly exaggerated. There is nothing unprecedented about the West being warmer than the East in a La Niña, as 1903-04 shows. Sure, the West is favored to have a colder winter when the Pacific is cold, but it's not a 100% guarantee. This has nothing to do with the melting of the polar ice caps, what's basically happening is that the GoA low is setting up in a position that torches the Pacific Northwest and the -NAO is creating a persistent trough in the East.I have noted with fascination the number of discussions of winters from 1800-1920 that are cropping up. Could it be that we're cyclically going back to that mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This post has many very extreme statements. There are examples of cold ENSO winters where the NW did quite badly. 1917-18 and 1933-34 are two excellent examples of this. By the same token there have been El Ninos where we did quite well such as 1968-69 and 1972-73. Nothing is ever set in stone. I thought 1971-2, a Niña winter, was the great one in the NW. I thought 1972-3 was nothing great, and nothing terrible. Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This post has many very extreme statements. There are examples of cold ENSO winters where the NW did quite badly. 1917-18 and 1933-34 are two excellent examples of this. By the same token there have been El Ninos where we did quite well such as 1968-69 and 1972-73. Nothing is ever set in stone. Correct and this is because weather and climate arent governed by enso alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have noted with fascination the number of discussions of winters from 1800-1920 that are cropping up. Could it be that we're cyclically going back to that mode? It certainly seems so, and it makes sense given the solar minimum. This is probably a good thing for many in the U.S., and especially in the I-95 corridor where blocking is especially important to ensure frozen precipitation and endurance of the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 With today's light WAA snows, New York City's snowfall to date has reached 37.1", which puts it in a tie with 2003-04 for the fifth highest figure through January. In addition, Boston reached 50.4", the 4th highest figure through January. Both cities should continue to move higher even if the 0z NAM seemed to throw up a roadblock. My estimates for the 1/26-27/2011 snowstorm follow: Allentown: 3"-6" Baltimore: 4"-8" Boston: 6"-12" Harrisburg: 4"-8" Hartford: 5"-10" Islip: 5"-10" New York City: 5"-10" Newark: 4"-8" Philadelphia: 5"-10" Providence: 6"-12" Washington, DC: 4"-8" (both IAD and DCA) Worcester: 5"-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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