Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 . I also think it needs to be remembered just how warm far northeastern Canada (i.e. Baffin island and towns like Iqualuit) has been this winter, not to mention Labrador. i realize this has been caused by the blocking and the extreme -AO, but looking back it just seems unprecedented in recorded weather history for places like that to be so warm for so long. Has there been another recorded winter where this has been the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This post has many very extreme statements. There are examples of cold ENSO winters where the NW did quite badly. 1917-18 and 1933-34 are two excellent examples of this. By the same token there have been El Ninos where we did quite well such as 1968-69 and 1972-73. Nothing is ever set in stone. Are we heading into a cold ENSO now? I was wondering if that is the deciding factr which makes the NE, as well as Ontario/Quebec frigid in the winter? I say this because they -AO doesn't seem to do us a lot of good in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 SW how strong was the la nina in 1917-18? I know we were using 1916-17 as an analog, but was 1917-18 another mod-strong la nina? I didnt know about 1933-34, was that a mod-strong la nina too? 1916-17 was a strong La Nina while 1917-18 was weak. The very interesting thing is the 1917-18 event had ridiculously high SOI like we are seeing with this episode. In general the La Ninas with high SOI don't seem to treat my part of the country as well as ones with more modest SOI. Certainly a reasreach project presenting itself there. It appears that 1933-34 was a low end moderate La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Are we heading into a cold ENSO now? I was wondering if that is the deciding factr which makes the NE, as well as Ontario/Quebec frigid in the winter? I say this because they -AO doesn't seem to do us a lot of good in that regard. Just another way of saying La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just another way of saying La Nina. Thankyou for clarifying. So, 1933-34 was a la nina year? I've always wondered what made that winter so extreme over the northeast US, as well as eastern Onatrio. I mean, that was the coldest winter ever recorded in Ottawa going way back into the 19th century, and if you know our climate, that's no small feat! It was also very snowy in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 1909-10- looks like the first two weeks of January 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 1916-17 was a strong La Nina while 1917-18 was weak. The very interesting thing is the 1917-18 event had ridiculously high SOI like we are seeing with this episode. In general the La Ninas with high SOI don't seem to treat my part of the country as well as ones with more modest SOI. Certainly a reasreach project presenting itself there. It appears that 1933-34 was a low end moderate La Nina. That's an intriguing line of research and I remember we were talking about this even before winter began. Any ideas as to what causes this ridiculously high SOI? Maybe its a feedback with some other index like the AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow, nice match Unc-- looks like the tell tale signature of a -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 1909-10- looks like the first two weeks of January 2011... Interesting. So it has happened before. It's too bad that temperature maps of canada aren't available for that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow, nice match Unc-- looks like the tell tale signature of a -AO. Take a look at January 1910 in Ottawa. It was a BUST. http://www.climate.w...&Month=1&Day=14 Very little snow and quite a mild mean temperature - very similar to January 2010 and the start of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thankyou for clarifying. So, 1933-34 was a la nina year? I've always wondered what made that winter so extreme over the northeast US, as well as eastern Onatrio. I mean, that was the coldest winter ever recorded in Ottawa going way back into the 19th century, and if you know our climate, that's no small feat! It was also very snowy in these parts. I have been trying to figure out 1933-34 for a long time and dreading a repeat. One interesting thing is 1933 and 1995 were both abnormally huge Atlantic tropical storm seasons. There could be some connection seeing that 2010 was a big season and now we are seeing the patterns defy the Nina once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's an intriguing line of research and I remember we were talking about this even before winter began. Any ideas as to what causes this ridiculously high SOI? Maybe its a feedback with some other index like the AO? Maybe I'm being too naive, but I have hard time believing that the difference in SLP between Tahiti and Darwin has much to do with the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's an intriguing line of research and I remember we were talking about this even before winter began. Any ideas as to what causes this ridiculously high SOI? Maybe its a feedback with some other index like the AO? I'm not sure, but it will be well worth looking into. The thing that really kills me is I had this pegged for a blocked La Nina winter, which made me think the NW had it made. I just figured a Nina favored blocking over the Gulf of Alaska and didn't question that enough. It's interesting that 1949-50 was a strong La Nina but the SOI wasn't that high at all and the NW got hammered that winter. There has to be something to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Maybe I'm being too naive, but I have hard time believing that the difference in SLP between Tahiti and Darwin has much to do with the AO. It seems very hard to believe, but not impossible by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It seems very hard to believe, but not impossible by any means. Over the last few months, I'm beginning to believe that the solar factor is a big deal, or at least a bigger deal than I thought, in determining the state of the mid-latitude atmosphere. HM, Jim Hughes and others have also noted the solar connection to ENSO. So there might be some co-linearity there, but I have hard time believing that the SOI and the AO physically affect each other. Does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not sure, but it will be well worth looking into. The thing that really kills me is I had this pegged for a blocked La Nina winter, which made me think the NW had it made. I just figured a Nina favored blocking over the Gulf of Alaska and didn't question that enough. It's interesting that 1949-50 was a strong La Nina but the SOI wasn't that high at all and the NW got hammered that winter. There has to be something to that. Not all Niñas have blocking over the Gulf of Alaska; actually, a +EPO pattern is fairly common when the La Niña is moderate/strong.Take a look at 07-08: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not all Niñas have blocking over the Gulf of Alaska; actually, a +EPO pattern is fairly common when the La Niña is moderate/strong.Take a look at 07-08: I totally agree. That winter featured raging zonal flow as many La Nina winters have recently. As a result I poured a lot reasearch into determining if a Nina winter will be blocked or zonal. I got the bocking call right, but missed the location. I'm getting closer I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Over the last few months, I'm beginning to believe that the solar factor is a big deal, or at least a bigger deal than I thought, in determining the state of the mid-latitude atmosphere. HM, Jim Hughes and others have also noted the solar connection to ENSO. So there might be some co-linearity there, but I have hard time believing that the SOI and the AO physically affect each other. Does that make sense? No question the solar aspect appears to have a lot of merit. It's just too much to be a coincidence that we are all of the sudden seeing these ridiculously blocked winters. Looking at low solar cycles in the 19th and early 20th centuries, I have found those times featured amazing winters in the NW as well as the NE. I suppose this winter is just plain bad luck and the NW will eventually have their big winter. As for the SOI...the main thing I have seen in looking through the records is the NW has had bad luck scoring in very high SOI winters. I haven't looked very deeply into it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I totally agree. That winter featured raging zonal flow as many La Nina winters have recently. As a result I poured a lot reasearch into determining if a Nina winter will be blocked or zonal. I got the bocking call right, but missed the location. I'm getting closer I guess. It's interesting that the 2007-08 winter featured significantly below normal heights in the Pacific Northwest but wasn't exceptionally snowy. The vortex to the north in the Gulf of Alaska created too much zonal flow off the Pacific. Unlike many areas, the Pacific NW needs a certain kind of trough instead of just generally low heights, one that curls in from Central Canada and brings arctic air into the region, eliminating maritime tainted winds from the Pacific. This is why it's so hard for Seattle and Portland to get a snowstorm, as many troughs just aren't positioned correctly to cut off the Pacific inflow. The blocking has been great this winter, but not arranged well for the Pacific NW. I know hopes were running high after the extreme cold outbreak in late November, but winter shifted to the East in early December and has pretty much stayed here since then. I wouldn't totally lose hope, though, Snow Wizard. In my winter forecast, I had December as the mildest month for the Pac NW with average temperatures, gradually getting cooler as the winter goes along. I know January is going to be a torch in all likelihood, but February still holds some promise. In many Niña winters, the cold shifts west later in the season, prime examples being 54-55 and 88-89. I think there'll be a stretch in mid February where we see a more typical -PDO/-ENSO/-PNA pattern prevail, bringing cold and snow to your area. I believe the trough shifts back into the East for much of March, but February should offer some opportunities. I'm sure the cooling SSTs will also help those who live near the coast. No question the solar aspect appears to have a lot of merit. It's just too much to be a coincidence that we are all of the sudden seeing these ridiculously blocked winters. Looking at low solar cycles in the 19th and early 20th centuries, I have found those times featured amazing winters in the NW as well as the NE. I suppose this winter is just plain bad luck and the NW will eventually have their big winter. As for the SOI...the main thing I have seen in looking through the records is the NW has had bad luck scoring in very high SOI winters. I haven't looked very deeply into it yet. Strongly agree..the solar connection is becoming much more apparent when we still have -AO/-NAO extreme block in a strong La Niña and +QBO regime. 09-10 and 10-11 have been very blocky winters, and I think this should continue for the next few years as the solar minimum deepens. Definitely going to be some interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Over the last few months, I'm beginning to believe that the solar factor is a big deal, or at least a bigger deal than I thought, in determining the state of the mid-latitude atmosphere. HM, Jim Hughes and others have also noted the solar connection to ENSO. So there might be some co-linearity there, but I have hard time believing that the SOI and the AO physically affect each other. Does that make sense? It seems like a pile of dominoes that falls-- perhaps the sun is the causative agent with both the AO and the SOI as co-effects. They can't be linear effects though, as (HM talked about this) the correlation is indirect-- there are probably other factors at play that are the catalysts that make the "reaction" more likely during certain minimums more than others-- otherwise it would have been better predicted. A feedback mechanism would be a more complex reaction where one wouldnt necessarily cause the other, but creates a kind of stability that makes both more likely to occur and endure, with the sun still being the main causative agent, with other factors being climate catalysts that increase the sensitivity of the climate to the solar effect. I guess you could call them synergistic more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not sure, but it will be well worth looking into. The thing that really kills me is I had this pegged for a blocked La Nina winter, which made me think the NW had it made. I just figured a Nina favored blocking over the Gulf of Alaska and didn't question that enough. It's interesting that 1949-50 was a strong La Nina but the SOI wasn't that high at all and the NW got hammered that winter. There has to be something to that. If I remember correctly, that winter started out with a very neg AO and then flipped strongly positive. Perhaps the synergistic effect I mentioned above links that to the SOI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I have been trying to figure out 1933-34 for a long time and dreading a repeat. One interesting thing is 1933 and 1995 were both abnormally huge Atlantic tropical storm seasons. There could be some connection seeing that 2010 was a big season and now we are seeing the patterns defy the Nina once again. Another winter that you can toss into the mix is 1966-67....although I think that was a good one for you and for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It seems like a pile of dominoes that falls-- perhaps the sun is the causative agent with both the AO and the SOI as co-effects. They can't be linear effects though, as (HM talked about this) the correlation is indirect-- there are probably other factors at play that are the catalysts that make the "reaction" more likely during certain minimums more than others-- otherwise it would have been better predicted. A feedback mechanism would be a more complex reaction where one wouldnt necessarily cause the other, but creates a kind of stability that makes both more likely to occur and endure, with the sun still being the main causative agent, with other factors being climate catalysts that increase the sensitivity of the climate to the solar effect. I guess you could call them synergistic more than anything else. Whoever figures out the whole process will likely be quite rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Another winter that you can toss into the mix is 1966-67....although I think that was a good one for you and for us. 1966-67 was pretty lame here actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 1966-67 was pretty lame here actually. Another high SOI year then? I dont know why, but I thought it got mentioned quite a bit for PAC NW snowfall. Another thing I've heard mentioned is that la ninas which were preceded by el ninos the previous year have an el nino "residual effect"-- notable examples being 1966-67, 1995-96, 2005-06 and perhaps this winter also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 -24C forecast low for ottawa tonight currently -19.0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 -24C forecast low for ottawa tonight currently -19.0C Down below -20 at the airport now. Looks like we've crossed the -20C threshold. Now, can we get a -20C day this winter. Only time will tell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 -26.8 IMBY at the moment.....chilly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Down to -30c or -20f..... cooooold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Down to -30c or -20f..... cooooold Yes, really cold in Ottawa this morning. The cold for this upcoming weekend doesn't look as extreme as originally thought though. Still, at least we can now say we made it below 0F and -20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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