January 2011 Thoughts: Area of Warmth Could Be Somewhat Limited

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I know this site (myforecast0 is often considered a joke, but take a look at it's latest 15 day forecast for Ottawa. Imagine if this actually verified? High -27 celcius on the 23rd.

http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast_15day.m?city=54256&metric=true

[Snow Wizard]

The second half of the month looks to be brutally cold in the Ottawa area. Snowfall will probably be on the light side with perhaps a moderate snowfall mixed in. Increasingly, it does appear that the East (southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and the Mid-Atlantic/New England states) may be locked into a cold pattern through most of the second half of the month, aside from some brief shots of milder air.

What are your thoughts for February? I find myself wondering if a cold winter is even possible in the West any more. No matter what the East gets crushed and we just get the leftovers.

[Feb]

What are your thoughts for February? I find myself wondering if a cold winter is even possible in the West any more. No matter what the East gets crushed and we just get the leftovers.

[wxmx]

I think blocking will continue, and is going to be supported by the constant wave disturbing the vortex...plus some stratospheric warming. Also, things appear golden for some late January/early February for some nice wintry weather...and I would venture to call another KU event for the E coast (say from Jan 26th-Feb 4th)...other than La Niña, these graphics are just...wow

MJO:

Inducing dateline -OLR (tropical forcing changes)

Wave 1 just went nuts...I'm not even sure it isn't a glitch

And a deep strat warming...again, I'm not even sure if there's something wrong with the graph.

This wave is what is creating the big EPO ridge, and may there might be a positive feedback with the stratosphere.

Models have now latched onto the +PNA ridge, and hinting at the return of the -NAO. With the MJO still forecasted to reach Phase 8 and probably Phase 1 by the end of the month, my call for a possible KU storm by late Jan or early Feb still holds. The STJ is starting to crank up also, probably peaking in about 2 weeks.

[Snow Wizard]

I just want the same thing everyone else on here wants. To get some decent winter weather when many of the big atmospheric players are in the right mode for it. It really sucks to be denied when this was our best shot at least since the winter of 1988-89. There is still time though!

[thenewbigmack]

You're obviously the kind of person that doesn't deserve the amounts of snow you get. You and everyone else knows the stage seemed set for the west to have a good winter. He's just asking a question

[Feb]

You're obviously the kind of person that doesn't deserve the amounts of snow you get. You and everyone else knows the stage seemed set for the west to have a good winter. He's just asking a question

You're right. I deserve much more then the 6" i have had so far this year.

[donsutherland1]

A Sad Pacific Northwest Update: January 16-31, 2011 Timeframe:

In what is a rare development during a strong PDO- regime (especially during moderate/strong La Niña events), what is likely to be a fairly long-duration PNA+ regime is now in the process of establishing itself. In cases when the January PDO was < 0, 8/30 (27%) of cases saw the PNA average > 0. Moreover, when the PDO was -1 or below in January, 3/14 (21%) cases saw the PNA average > 0. But that is what is likely this month. The GFS ensemble forecast for the remainder of January 2011 is below:

That ensemble forecast suggests that warmer than normal readings will define most or all of the rest of January in the Pacific Northwest. Given the pattern that is now locking into place, it is also very likely that Seattle has seen all the snow it will receive for January.

500 mb Height Anomalies when the PNA ranged between +0.500 and +1.500 (1950-2010):

Surface Temperature Anomalies when the PNA ranged between +0.500 and +1.500 (1950-2010):

1/15/2011 12z GFS Ensemble Forecast 500 mb Height Anomalies (Days 11-15):

1/15/2011 12z GFS Ensemble Forecast 850 mb Temperature Anomalies (Days 11-15):

The risk exists that the warm pattern that has evolved could persist into at least part of February. The January PNA could provide a hint. Through January 15, the PNA has averaged +0.106. If the GFS forecast verifies, the month may end with a PNA average at or above +0.500. That is an ominous sign for February. In the sample selected from PDO <0 in January, when the PNA averaged +0.500 or above in January, 4/5 (80%) cases saw February have a PNA average > 0. That probability was 50% when the January PDO was -1 or lower. The bottom line is that there is a real risk that the warmth that will very likely dominate the remainder of this month, leaving the Pacific Northwest with positive temperature anomalies for January, could push into February. Right now, it's a little soon to make that call, but that danger is on the table.

In the end, I very much hope that the PNA will wind up less positive than forecast and that February would see at least a period of notable winter weather in British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Hopefully, by the time I post more details about February, the picture will be clearer and there will be the promise of a return of more winterlike weather.

[thenewbigmack]

A Sad Pacific Northwest Update: January 16-31, 2011 Timeframe:

In what is a rare development during a strong PDO- regime (especially during moderate/strong La Niña events), what is likely to be a fairly long-duration PNA+ regime is now in the process of establishing itself. In cases when the January PDO was < 0, 8/30 (27%) of cases saw the PNA average > 0. Moreover, when the PDO was -1 or below in January, 3/14 (21%) cases saw the PNA average > 0. But that is what is likely this month. The GFS ensemble forecast for the remainder of January 2011 is below:

That ensemble forecast suggests that warmer than normal readings will define most or all of the rest of January in the Pacific Northwest. Given the pattern that is now locking into place, it is also very likely that Seattle has seen all the snow it will receive for January.

500 mb Height Anomalies when the PNA ranged between +0.500 and +1.500 (1950-2010):

Surface Temperature Anomalies when the PNA ranged between +0.500 and +1.500 (1950-2010):

1/15/2011 12z GFS Ensemble Forecast 500 mb Height Anomalies (Days 11-15):

1/15/2011 12z GFS Ensemble Forecast 850 mb Temperature Anomalies (Days 11-15):

The risk exists that the warm pattern that has evolved could persist into at least part of February. The January PNA could provide a hint. Through January 15, the PNA has averaged +0.106. If the GFS forecast verifies, the month may end with a PNA average at or above +0.500. That is an ominous sign for February. In the sample selected from PDO <0 in January, when the PNA averaged +0.500 or above in January, 4/5 (80%) cases saw February have a PNA average > 0. That probability was 50% when the January PDO was -1 or lower. The bottom line is that there is a real risk that the warmth that will very likely dominate the remainder of this month, leaving the Pacific Northwest with positive temperature anomalies for January, could push into February. Right now, it's a little soon to make that call, but that danger is on the table.

In the end, I very much hope that the PNA will wind up less positive than forecast and that February would see at least a period of notable winter weather in British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Hopefully, by the time I post more details about February, the picture will be clearer and there will be the promise of a return of more winterlike weather.

Thanks for the post about the PNW Don. The current and upcoming pattern definitely isn't what we expected going into this winter. It's hard for me to believe this +PNA could hold so strong with the NAO becoming weakly negative or even +. Seems as though that's the time when the pacific would take over and produce a more Nina like behavior. I would obviously like to see a more favorable pattern over here, but that's not just a wishcast either... thoughts about this Don?

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks for the update Don-- I'd also like to know if the PNA is influenced by the NAO/AO or is it vice versa, or perhaps there is a common causative agent that affects both?

[pcbjr]

Thanks for the update Don-- I'd also like to know if the PNA is influenced by the NAO/AO or is it vice versa, or perhaps there is a common causative agent that affects both?

Took the question right out of my mouth ... (beat me to it, in other words - good thinking!).

[Snow Wizard]

A Sad Pacific Northwest Update: January 16-31, 2011 Timeframe:

In what is a rare development during a strong PDO- regime (especially during moderate/strong La Niña events), what is likely to be a fairly long-duration PNA+ regime is now in the process of establishing itself. In cases when the January PDO was < 0, 8/30 (27%) of cases saw the PNA average > 0. Moreover, when the PDO was -1 or below in January, 3/14 (21%) cases saw the PNA average > 0. But that is what is likely this month. The GFS ensemble forecast for the remainder of January 2011 is below:

Yeah. I have certainly written off the remainder of this month. I think the MJO is probably a big reason this is happening. There are some dramatic cases of pattern reversals between Jan and Feb though. 1936 and 1985 being a couple of notable examples.

I sure appreciate you taking so much time looking into the prospects for the NW!

[Snow Wizard]

Thanks for the post about the PNW Don. The current and upcoming pattern definitely isn't what we expected going into this winter. It's hard for me to believe this +PNA could hold so strong with the NAO becoming weakly negative or even +. Seems as though that's the time when the pacific would take over and produce a more Nina like behavior. I would obviously like to see a more favorable pattern over here, but that's not just a wishcast either... thoughts about this Don?

Just our luck the MJO is El Nino like when the NAO finally gives us a chance for something.

[Snow Wizard]

Thanks for the update Don-- I'd also like to know if the PNA is influenced by the NAO/AO or is it vice versa, or perhaps there is a common causative agent that affects both?

I do know there are cases where both are negative or both are positive. When both are negative things can get really interesting for much of the country.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the update Don-- I'd also like to know if the PNA is influenced by the NAO/AO or is it vice versa, or perhaps there is a common causative agent that affects both?

There's a very weak inverse relationship between the AO and PNA (-0.11 correlation).

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Don, how's it looking for the Ottawa region this upcoming week? Do you think we could get at least 10" of snow on Tuesday? It looks set to be bitterly cold by this time next week!

[donsutherland1]

Don, how's it looking for the Ottawa region this upcoming week? Do you think we could get at least 10" of snow on Tuesday? It looks set to be bitterly cold by this time next week!

My thinking is 10-20 cm. But that's not yet cast in stone.

[PNW guy]

The risk exists that the warm pattern that has evolved could persist into at least part of February. The January PNA could provide a hint. Through January 15, the PNA has averaged +0.106. If the GFS forecast verifies, the month may end with a PNA average at or above +0.500. That is an ominous sign for February. In the sample selected from PDO <0 in January, when the PNA averaged +0.500 or above in January, 4/5 (80%) cases saw February have a PNA average > 0. That probability was 50% when the January PDO was -1 or lower. The bottom line is that there is a real risk that the warmth that will very likely dominate the remainder of this month, leaving the Pacific Northwest with positive temperature anomalies for January, could push into February. Right now, it's a little soon to make that call, but that danger is on the table.

In the end, I very much hope that the PNA will wind up less positive than forecast and that February would see at least a period of notable winter weather in British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Hopefully, by the time I post more details about February, the picture will be clearer and there will be the promise of a return of more winterlike weather.

I think the important thing in all of this is that ALL the historical data and ALL the forecasts about this winter for the PNW were mostly wrong. There is real history in the making here and nobody can say with proof the EXACT reason this has occurred/is occurring. No longer can you you say(nor should any forecasts advertise) strong negative SST's in the Pacific mean (fill in the blank) for the country. Everything about this event has never happened before, hence it is historical. Throw out the textbooks and start over...no way anybody anywhere forecasted this. What if this becomes the norm for EVERY winter? What if it is caused by the shift or dissappearance of the Gulf Stream due to the melting of the polar ice cap?? What is going to happen when/if the polar ice cap melts completely etc etc etc. More extremes are happening everywhere on the planet every year and despite how you may feel about it...the earth is getting hotter every year. Things are changing and there could be many possible causes and things which we don't understand as a result of it. Some big things are happening this winter which haven't happend in "recorded" history.

The west coast has torched....extremely! High in LA tomorrow is 84. Seattle could easily see 60 or warmer at the rate this is going. And what if it gets even worse? No way to predict that either. So for those who love the snow...enjoy it. No complaining though if it is still snowing in May.

[okie333]

I think the important thing in all of this is that ALL the historical data and ALL the forecasts about this winter for the PNW were mostly wrong.

I had said on Eastern that "the idea for a mega-cold winter in the Pacific Northwest was very overrated", and that "they would be closer to average, but very wet". I don't have the whole post saved, so these quotes may not be exact.

[nzucker]

I think the important thing in all of this is that ALL the historical data and ALL the forecasts about this winter for the PNW were mostly wrong. There is real history in the making here and nobody can say with proof the EXACT reason this has occurred/is occurring. No longer can you you say(nor should any forecasts advertise) strong negative SST's in the Pacific mean (fill in the blank) for the country. Everything about this event has never happened before, hence it is historical. Throw out the textbooks and start over...no way anybody anywhere forecasted this. What if this becomes the norm for EVERY winter? What if it is caused by the shift or dissappearance of the Gulf Stream due to the melting of the polar ice cap?? What is going to happen when/if the polar ice cap melts completely etc etc etc. More extremes are happening everywhere on the planet every year and despite how you may feel about it...the earth is getting hotter every year. Things are changing and there could be many possible causes and things which we don't understand as a result of it. Some big things are happening this winter which haven't happend in "recorded" history.

The west coast has torched....extremely! High in LA tomorrow is 84. Seattle could easily see 60 or warmer at the rate this is going. And what if it gets even worse? No way to predict that either. So for those who love the snow...enjoy it. No complaining though if it is still snowing in May.

It's not unprecedented for the West to be mild in a strong La Niña while the East is cold. 1903-04 was a moderate/strong Niña according to all estimates, and here was the temperature anomaly for the winter:

You can see it was basically the same as this winter, cold in the East, Midwest, and Great Lakes with milder conditions prevailing over the Intermountain West and West Coast. Weather patterns are complex, and ENSO/PDO conditions are only a single variable to be taken into account.

Your discussion is greatly exaggerated. There is nothing unprecedented about the West being warmer than the East in a La Niña, as 1903-04 shows. Sure, the West is favored to have a colder winter when the Pacific is cold, but it's not a 100% guarantee. This has nothing to do with the melting of the polar ice caps, what's basically happening is that the GoA low is setting up in a position that torches the Pacific Northwest and the -NAO is creating a persistent trough in the East.

[A-L-E-X]

Nate, as a matter of fact, I think the same happened in one of our other analogs-- 1916-17.

Not sure about 1909-10.

[uncle W]

Nate, as a matter of fact, I think the same happened in one of our other analogs-- 1916-17.

Not sure about 1909-10.

[A-L-E-X]

Wow Unc, that was one cold winter nationwide-- almost looks like 1978-79! What happened that winter?

Also, can you pull up the map for 1916-17? Thanks!

[Snow Wizard]

The risk exists that the warm pattern that has evolved could persist into at least part of February. The January PNA could provide a hint. Through January 15, the PNA has averaged +0.106. If the GFS forecast verifies, the month may end with a PNA average at or above +0.500. That is an ominous sign for February. In the sample selected from PDO <0 in January, when the PNA averaged +0.500 or above in January, 4/5 (80%) cases saw February have a PNA average > 0. That probability was 50% when the January PDO was -1 or lower. The bottom line is that there is a real risk that the warmth that will very likely dominate the remainder of this month, leaving the Pacific Northwest with positive temperature anomalies for January, could push into February. Right now, it's a little soon to make that call, but that danger is on the table.

In the end, I very much hope that the PNA will wind up less positive than forecast and that February would see at least a period of notable winter weather in British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Hopefully, by the time I post more details about February, the picture will be clearer and there will be the promise of a return of more winterlike weather.

I think the important thing in all of this is that ALL the historical data and ALL the forecasts about this winter for the PNW were mostly wrong. There is real history in the making here and nobody can say with proof the EXACT reason this has occurred/is occurring. No longer can you you say(nor should any forecasts advertise) strong negative SST's in the Pacific mean (fill in the blank) for the country. Everything about this event has never happened before, hence it is historical. Throw out the textbooks and start over...no way anybody anywhere forecasted this. What if this becomes the norm for EVERY winter? What if it is caused by the shift or dissappearance of the Gulf Stream due to the melting of the polar ice cap?? What is going to happen when/if the polar ice cap melts completely etc etc etc. More extremes are happening everywhere on the planet every year and despite how you may feel about it...the earth is getting hotter every year. Things are changing and there could be many possible causes and things which we don't understand as a result of it. Some big things are happening this winter which haven't happend in "recorded" history.

The west coast has torched....extremely! High in LA tomorrow is 84. Seattle could easily see 60 or warmer at the rate this is going. And what if it gets even worse? No way to predict that either. So for those who love the snow...enjoy it. No complaining though if it is still snowing in May.

This post has many very extreme statements. There are examples of cold ENSO winters where the NW did quite badly. 1917-18 and 1933-34 are two excellent examples of this. By the same token there have been El Ninos where we did quite well such as 1968-69 and 1972-73. Nothing is ever set in stone.

[Snow Wizard]

I had said on Eastern that "the idea for a mega-cold winter in the Pacific Northwest was very overrated", and that "they would be closer to average, but very wet". I don't have the whole post saved, so these quotes may not be exact.

What was your evidence? I know you said the NAO would be low, but why? It would be easy to say people who made such a claim were wishcasting unless there was solid evidence to back it up. Do you think every La Nina winter from here on out will feature strongly negative NAO thus making a cold Western winter nearly impossible?

[Snow Wizard]

Wow Unc, that was one cold winter nationwide-- almost looks like 1978-79! What happened that winter?

Also, can you pull up the map for 1916-17? Thanks!

1909-10 and 1916-17 were quite cold in the West also, so those really aren't lining up very well at this point. I guess it's important to remember that just about anything could happen in February and March. This winter has had a lot of strange twists and turns so far. No reason to think that won't continue.

[am19psu]

What was your evidence? I know you said the NAO would be low, but why? It would be easy to say people who made such a claim were wishcasting unless there was solid evidence to back it up. Do you think every La Nina winter from here on out will feature strongly negative NAO thus making a cold Western winter nearly impossible?

I'll let him explain his methodology, but okie is a solar guy. Obviously, the solar based forecasts have verified better than anything else this year.

[A-L-E-X]

This post has many very extreme statements. There are examples of cold ENSO winters where the NW did quite badly. 1917-18 and 1933-34 are two excellent examples of this. By the same token there have been El Ninos where we did quite well such as 1968-69 and 1972-73. Nothing is ever set in stone.

SW how strong was the la nina in 1917-18? I know we were using 1916-17 as an analog, but was 1917-18 another mod-strong la nina? I didnt know about 1933-34, was that a mod-strong la nina too?

[A-L-E-X]

1909-10 and 1916-17 were quite cold in the West also, so those really aren't lining up very well at this point. I guess it's important to remember that just about anything could happen in February and March. This winter has had a lot of strange twists and turns so far. No reason to think that won't continue.

Definitely-- I was rather hoping for a 1966-67 kind of winter where we see nationwide cold and snow.... February and March were quite memorable here that year.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

My thinking is 10-20 cm. But that's not yet cast in stone.

Thanks Don. I actually had meant 10cm not 10". It's going to be really interesting to see, with the possible cold wave coming up, if our mean temperature up here can get down into the -10 or -11C range, as that's what January 1965 and January 1917 averaged out as.